Have a look at these two juxtaposed news clips from the UK Daily Mail, one from October 28th, 2010, the other from November 28th, 2010.
and here’s today’s news:
Now have a look at what the Met Office issued on 10-28-2010:
That missive comes from this page where they gave up on seasonal outlooks, but they don’t actually tell you where you can find the “monthly outlook” forecast.
A search for “monthly outlook” yields nothing, pretty lame. But, there are some suggestions it may be a paid service.
Anybody know where to find it?
In other news, new records have been set.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20101128.html
Big chill breaks November temperature records
28 November 2010
Last night saw November minimum temperature records fall across the country. Most notably both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. In Wales, temperatures fell to -18.0 °C at Llysdinam, near Llandrindod Wells, Powys. Northern Ireland recorded -9.5 °C at Loch Fea.
Scotland recorded minimum temperature of -15.3 °C at Loch Glascarnoch, whilst England recorded -13.5 °C at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire.
The UK’s lowest ever recorded temperature in November was – 23.3 °C recorded in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands, on November 14, 1919.
The cold and snow is expected to continue to affect many parts of the UK today and through the coming week. Met Office forecasters are warning of further severe frosts, snow and icy conditions. The north-easterly winds, with a significant wind chill will also make it feel bitterly cold as daytime temperatures struggle to rise above freezing.
Met Office warnings and advisories of severe weather for snow and icy roads are in force for parts of northern and eastern England, parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further snowfall is expected through Scotland and the north east on Sunday.
Met Office Chief Forecaster, Steve Willington said: “The very low overnight temperatures we have seen are likely to be repeated through the coming week as the cold and snowy weather continues. As winds increase into next week, it will feel increasingly cold with a significant wind chill to contend with by day and night.”
“Icy roads and snow will be a risk for many, and the public are advised to stay up to date with the forecast to make sure they have the latest information.”
@rbateman says:
November 28, 2010 at 5:23 pm
“Talk about jumping out of a burning apartment and into the icy waters.
Maybe they could get a good deal on shopping the Met Supercomputer on EBay, it’s clearly not working for them.”
Its G.I.G.O. Don`t blame the tool !
Climate can dramatically change in a short time:
Confirmation of the rapid freezing by paleomagnetism
http://daltonsminima.altervista.org/?p=12219
This is the headline in today’s Daily Express, “-20c – Wrap up warm… temperatures are about to plunge even lower”.
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/ourpaper/view/2010-11-29
Current temperature at 17:15hr is -2.4c, with a minimum over the last few days of -5.3c and 1.4c max – looks like global warming is really taking of here!
Meanwhile the sun seems reluctant to come out of it’s slumber, with La Nina continuing to prevail. My guess is for another NH winter like the one we had last year, which should put a damper on the rantings of the CAGW fanatics.
anna v says:
November 28, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Just to make the northern people jealous and keep a perspective that weather is chaotic, in Greece we are having the warmest November for decades. It is 21 degrees day and night outside, all due to southern winds which bring air from Africa.
Five day fore cast of the week gives more of the same, with a bit of cooling at night (12-16C minimums) some nights. In Crete they have 27 C maximum.
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Anna v, a satellite image shows that the huge MPH anticyclones that are bringing cold to western Europe is advecting lots of warm air from the mediterranean on its front and that Greece is right on this path now.
http://comprendre.meteofrance.com/pedagogique/experts?67024.path=coinexpertsanimationsatellite%252Fimgsatccgf%252FZONE_EUROPE
David W said
The BBC weather forecast for Dublin today (Mon 29th) says a minimum of 0 degC (from the Met office).
The current reading at Dublin airport, only 5 miles north and a similar distance from the coast at 6:00am GMT is -7 degC.
How many protesters in Dublin this morning? Though it would probably take a lot of “campfires” to raise the temperature the whole city by 7C.
Well, you just never know. Jack Frost may disappear and we may have a heatwave like in Cancun by mid-december to january. If so i’m getting my swimming costume out and heading straight for Durness to cool down
Met Office forecasts are warmist wishlists – barbecue summers, mild winters – they have been wrong on every single seasonal forecast in the last 3 years, and always in the warm direction. They have become an expensive joke, and it is about time that they were investigated.
@ur momisugly john edmondson
“In defence of the Met Office, I would like to point out that their forecast for the next 84 hours is always excellent. ”
No it is not! On Saturday I posted a message to WUWT about a journey I made the day before from South Wales to Exeter and back again. The Met Office did not forecast snow for either South Wales or southwest England on television on Thursday night or on their website on Friday morning. In the afternoon blizzards started in both South Wales and southwest England and there was a 26 mile traffic jam west of the Severn Bridge.
That is by no means an isolated instance. Earlier this year Bornemouth launched its own weather service because it blamed the Met Office for ‘disastrous’ predictions which cost the town millions of pounds in lost income. Bournemouth would not have gone to all that trouble just because of one bad and inaccurate forescast.
Bournemouth launches its own weather service to combat ‘disastrous’ Met Office predictions
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1280181/Met-Office-blunders-prompt-Bournemouth-launch-weather-service.html#ixzz16hgJMaUB
Dave says:
November 29, 2010 at 6:56 am
That doesn’t mean they need to stop producing their long-range forecasts; on the contrary, they need to keep working on them.
Here is the UKMO forecast for the remainder of the winter 2009/10, issued 31 Dec 2009:
For the rest of winter, over northern Europe including the UK, the chance of colder conditions is now 45%; there is a 30% chance of average and a 25% chance of milder conditions.
What conceivable use is that to anyone? Predictions are only any good if they are useful. Such nebulous projections as the one above are wholly worthless (and as a benefit to those making them – completely accurate; whatever happens they are not wrong).
The UKMO and other climate prognosticators should keep their prognostications to themselves until they are able to predict with 95%+ accuracy.
Acc. Professor Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at Leeds University :- “All models have biases and these are very small. It may be, as the Met Office suggests, that the observations are wrong, not the model.”
The Met Office should stick to forecasting weather, which in this satellite age is now relatively easy. You see on a satellite what’s coming . It’s just a case of predicting which way it’ll move.
Climate projection on the other hand, is more akin to witchcraft and should be left to the specialist practioners of such.
If you found my web link to the monthly forecast from earlier in this piece you will already have noted how the Met Off does their forecasts and I quote
“This cold weather is likely to keep us guessing, especially in the run-up to Christmas, so come back for an update next week”
You see! you knew all along didn’t you. “guessing”.
The best way to deal with the Met off and UEA is to privatize them both. Sell them off and let them stand on their computer models. Now that would really save your economy UK. That would give more nurses to your rubbish NHS and more teachers to your rubbish education system. BUT at least you won’t have the worst met off in the world.
SteveE says:
November 29, 2010 at 7:30 am
You must share “that sufficient evidence” with us all. We have been searching for decades and can’t find it. Please write us your evidence asap here. I’m looking forward to it.
David Rosser says:
November 29, 2010 at 7:08 am ““The forecast is put together using observations of sea temperatures in the preceding summer, data from the Met Office’s northern hemisphere weather modelling systems, those of the French national weather service and that of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting in Reading.
Bizarre that, according to the French they put theirs together using the UK model ?
To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things
You have demonstrated a complete lack of any knowledge. Just how are the Milakovitch cycles driven again? BY CO² ???
Dave says:
November 29, 2010 at 6:56 am
You need to go back and read the press anouncement from the MO of a year or 2 ago when they said that their new multimillion pound supre computer and high resolution model will provide both more accurate monthly, seasonal and yearly forecast but also climate forecast to the year dot. You are wrong.!!
I was just about to give off about the wrong spelling of Lough Fea, ( Loch is the Scottish spelling) but I see that the error comes from the Met Office press release. Typical, just typical.
BTW drove past there earlier this evening -6c on the car thermometer!
Well, no, new records have NOT been set unless you count about 20 years as for ever. It’s unusual but by no means unknown. In other words, this is a cold spell. In winters you get cold spells, some colder than others. This tells you nothing about global warming.
It tells you nothing unless you take into account the warm spells we’ve been having as well. And the warm spells happening elsewhere in the world.
Suggestion: find out the meanings of ‘global’, ‘average’, ‘climate’ and ‘weather’.
SteveE says Nov 29 @ur momisugly 5:06 am
Didn’t they have to import snow for the Winter Olympics last year?
Just because we had a few cold weeks doesn’t mean globally it was a cold year.
Most of the alpine events were at Whistler, north of Vancouver, and they had an all-time record snowfall of 32 feet to the end of January, 50% above normal. Some events were held at Grouse Mountain, which is on the Coast, virtually in the City of Vancouver. Warm rainy conditions are not uncommon at any time.
The Met Office only got the money to buy that supercomputer so they could calculate fallout in event of a nuclear war. Now these people are not capable of putting out a weather forecast without political bias so perhaps that task, and the supercomputer, should be reallocated to the UKAEA instead.
Yesterday they still proclaimed on the radio here that the MET had said that in spite of
the cold spell the world was still in for the warmest year on record.
If I correctly remember the law of averages that means that this year’s Christmas will be boiling hot. Be prepared! Get your Hawaii shirts and the tanning cream ready.
So does all this mean the Met Office is adjusting upwards its short-term temperature forecasts to account for “predicted global warming”?
If so, does that mean their temperature forecasting over the last few years has been alarmingly above actual readings?
Stephen richards says at 1:43 (and subsequently):
Having a bad day, Stephen? The Scottish education system is generally excellent, as are standards throughout the UK-wide NHS, but this is not the forum to petulantly air your opinions on irrelevent matters, however misinformed they are.
I suggest you go stick the kettle on for a nice relaxing and restorative cuppa’.
😉
stephen richards says:
November 29, 2010 at 1:52 pm
To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things
You have demonstrated a complete lack of any knowledge. Just how are the Milakovitch cycles driven again? BY CO² ???
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No, Milakovitch cycles aren’t driven by CO2 as my comment states. I suggest you Google them if you have problems understanding what they are.
If you have any questions just let me know and I’ll try and explain it in terms you can understand.
Tom W. says:
November 29, 2010 at 2:57 pm
SteveE says Nov 29 @ur momisugly 5:06 am
Didn’t they have to import snow for the Winter Olympics last year?
Just because we had a few cold weeks doesn’t mean globally it was a cold year.
Most of the alpine events were at Whistler, north of Vancouver, and they had an all-time record snowfall of 32 feet to the end of January, 50% above normal. Some events were held at Grouse Mountain, which is on the Coast, virtually in the City of Vancouver. Warm rainy conditions are not uncommon at any time.
——————————-
“The Olympic plans at Cypress were undercut by the warmest January on record, which kept snowmaking to a minimum. According to Environment Canada, the average temperature this year was 7.2 degrees Celsius (45 Fahrenheit), when it normally is 3.3 C (38). From Dec. 1 to Jan. 31, the area received 79 percent of its usual precipitation, but most of it was rain.”
Like I said, just because you had a few cold weeks and a big dump of snow doesn’t mean it was a cold winter.