Indonesia Volcano’s Eruptions Stump Scientists
By Lauren Frayer, AOL News
Eruptions from Indonesia’s ferocious Mount Merapi keep getting worse, prompting more villagers to run for their lives and puzzling scientists trying to decipher Mother Nature’s plans.
Hot ash clouds are sweeping across central Java, shooting up to six miles into the sky and snarling local air traffic. Today’s booming eruptions have been the strongest since Merapi—whose name means “Mountain of Fire” in Javanese—exploded on Oct. 26, volcanologist Kurniadi Rinekso told Agence France-Presse.
Indonesian officials announced five more deaths from the suffocating lava and smoke, raising Merapi’s total death toll to at least 44, CNN reported. Nearly 75,000 people are huddled in evacuation shelters far from their livelihoods, and it doesn’t look as if they’ll be able to return home anytime soon.
“It looks like we may be entering an even worse stage,” state volcanologist Surono told The Associated Press. After predicting earlier this week that eruptions would ease up, scientists are throwing up their hands as they are confronted today with eruptions three times stronger than expected. “We have no idea what’s happening now,” Surono said.
Merapi’s ash prompted global concern today when a Qantas airliner suffered engine failure after takeoff from Singapore’s airport. The incident occurred several hundred miles away from Merapi, and officials say they’re still investigating, but it appears unlikely that volcanic ash could have affected the plane. The A380 managed an emergency landing back in Singapore, and no one was hurt.
The latest eruptions have also been accompanied by tremors, a sign that energy is still pent up inside the volcano and unable to escape, the head of the Volcanic Technology Development and Research Center, Subandrio, told The Jakarta Post.
“This can [also] be seen from the hot clouds that have been rising from the mountain’s peak,” he said.
Indonesia’s island archipelago sits on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, where the world’s most volatile fault lines lie deep under the earth’s crust. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common there along the eastern and western Pacific rims.
See story here.
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Reports from the Global Volcanism Program:
According to the Darwin VAAC, ground-based reports indicated an eruption from Merapi on 28 October. Cloud cover prevented satellite observations. CVGHM reported that two pyroclastic flows occurred on 30 October. According to a news article, ash fell in Yogyakarta, 30 km SSW, causing low visibility. CVGHM noted four pyroclastic flows the next day.
On 1 November an eruption began mid-morning with a low-frequency earthquake and avalanches. About seven pyroclastic flows occurred during the next few hours, traveling SSE a maximum distance of 4 km. A gas-and-ash plume rose 1.5 km above the crater and drifted E and N. CVGHM recommended that evacuees from several communities within a 10-km radius should continue to stay in shelters or safe areas. The Darwin VAAC reported that a possible eruption on 1 November produced an ash plume that rose to an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l., according to ground-based reports, analyses of satellite imagery, and web camera views. On 2 November an ash plume was seen in satellite imagery drifting 75 km N at an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l. News outlets noted diversions and cancellations of flights in and out of the Solo (40 km E) and Yogyakarta airports. The Alert Level remained at 4 (on a scale of 1-4).
CVGHM reported 26 pyroclastic flows on 2 November. A mid-day report on 3 November stated that 38 pyroclastic flows occurred during the first 12 hours of the day. An observer from the Kaliurang post saw 19 of those 38 flows travel 4 km S. Plumes from the pyroclastic flows rose 1.2 km, although dense fog made visual observations difficult. Ashfall was noted in some nearby areas.
Geologic Summary. Merapi, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, lies in one of the world’s most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape immediately N of the major city of Yogyakarta. The steep-sided modern Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent eruptive activity, was constructed to the SW of an arcuate scarp cutting the eroded older Batulawang volcano. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated cultivated and inhabited lands on the volcano’s western-to-southern flanks and caused many fatalities during historical time. The volcano is the object of extensive monitoring efforts by the Merapi Volcano Observatory (MVO).
Sources: Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), CNN, BBC News
Sincere apologies to the Virginian Colonials, wrong battle of Quebec, should have been 1759 General James Wolfe……………………….err…………………….we lost that 1775 one to……………………………err…………..well you guys! 🙁
The Indonesian Volcanological department from reading there seismic charts are fearing a massive eruption. Each eruption is getting larger.
The latest report issued by them indicates that between 0600 and 1400 5/11/10 there was continuous tremor, pyroclastic flows and explosions.
They are recommending all residents to take safe cover further than the current exclusion zone of 20 kilometres radias.
Indonesia has the largest amount of active volcanoes than any other country – there are always a couple on high alert. Nothing out of the ordinary. It’s just that Merapi is located in a high population zone.
To influence weather patterns an eruption must send ejecta well up into the stratosphere 100,000+ feet and plenty of SO2 and dust with it. Last estimate of this Merapi eruption ejecta was .05 million Cubic kilometres although this figure has surely increased. By contrast Pinatubo was 10 cubic kilometres of ejecta and Tambora (1815) 100 cubic kilometres of ejecta.
RE: David Wright
From what I have read this volcano usually erupts with a maximum VEI 3 (usually less).
http://www.volcanolive.com/merapi.html
Here is a good part of that site for following its activity…
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html
“David Wright says:
November 5, 2010 at 4:44 am”
The, what is now Lake Toupo (Pronouced Toe-Pour, as best as I can represent), eruption in New Zealand drawfs these events by several mangintudes.
It would seem that historically a quite sun tends to make our little planet somewhat angry. The reasons yet to be understood, our fading magnetism perhaps a part of it. I do feel that the next few decades will prove to be a water shed for the demise of AGW and the digging up of coal an expanding and necessary part of survival.
Sad a little that my grand children may not perhaps enjoy the benign peace and climate that I have had the privilege of. It also saddens me that science has retreated into a shell and rejects all ideas outside the safety barrier of consensus. Strangely volcanoes are a molten plasma isolated from the earths inner molten mantle, a ball of energy agitated and made molten by the very same harmonics that are used for the detonation of atomic bombs.
Thus the alignments and harmonics are predictable and the big bangs easily predictable, I can only imagine that the equations are supposed to be secret, thus people die for no good reason. Maybe one day humanitarian real scientists will step up to the plate and allow the plebs of the world an explanation as to why they are failing us.
Where are the institutions of higher learning teaching the young the art of free thought, rather than the existing paradigm, the 20th century after great turmoil held such promise, frittered away and destroyed by a selfish generation of politically correct self serving elitists who believe only their world view and ideas are correct.
Volcanoes and earth quakes may be the straw that broke the camels back.
Alex the skeptic says:
November 5, 2010 at 4:39 am
People are not dying because of global warming but because of global inaction and stupidity.
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Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe. – Frank Zappa
Maybe a little reminder here that this eruption is not just a debating point but is affecting and taking many lives.
My research shows that volcanic eruptions occur at solar forced temperature uplifts. Many of the largest historic eruptions have occurred on strong warming spurts following very cold winters.
On this basis I have been successfully predicting times of new activity since 2008 at a weekly definition.
I had specifically determined Indonesia to be at risk from new activity this Autumn:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/something-is-brewing/#comment-1095
Local temperature deviations since August;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn96745_90.gif
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/maps/indonesia.gif
Ian Holton says:
November 5, 2010 at 1:36 am
“Is there enough going up 6kms to cause any significant ash-gas cover to spread out for any global cooling…or is it too small at present? Any takers!”
Sulfates (the stuff that causes acid rain), not ash, are the primary suspects when it comes to cooling. A recent article here:
http://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifts_in_asian_rainfall_tied_to_major_volcanic_eruptions/2673/
admits this isn’t well understood either as “the models” all predicted patterns of reduced rainfall in areas effected by large volcanic eruptions – the sulfate particles reflect sunlight back into space lowering the surface temperature and hence lowering surface evaporation rate which means fewer clouds and fewer clouds mean less rainfall.
In fact it does work that way in some areas but in others there is increased rainfall that the models do not predict. My guess is that other particulates, particularly ash and soot, form nucleation points for raindrops and hence cause more rain than less while the ash is resident in the atmosphere. Ash doesn’t usually persist for a long time unless the eruption is violent enough to drive it into the stratosphere where jet streams can spread it around the globe. Even so it’s eventually going to settle out of the stratosphere and potentially change rain patterns via water droplet formation around the increased number of particulates.
Woody says: November 5, 2010 at 5:43 am
“Maybe a little reminder here that this eruption is not just a debating point but is affecting and taking many lives.”
Yes, that is clear, people are dying and being left homeless.
Do not build your home near a volcano, on a fault line, beneath a steep mountain slope or in a flood plain.
If you do then something will eventually occur that will do you serious damage.
When that happens you should not expect others to see you as a victim since you chose to be part of the event.
The big one, as far as human evolution is concerned, was Toba, c-70,000BC. The effects of that can still be traced in the human genetic markers.
“Alan the Brit says:
November 5, 2010 at 4:47 am
Sincere apologies to the Virginian Colonials, wrong battle of Quebec, should have been 1759 General James Wolfe……………………….err…………………….we lost that 1775 one to……………………………err…………..well you guys! :-(”
Not exactly. As much as it pains this American, we lost the battle in 1775. While we captured Montreal on the way to Quebec, we lost as Quebec when the American commander was killed early into the battle and the forces he led retreated. Benedict Arnold continued with Morgan but Arnold was injured and forced to retreat while Morgan and his forces, having made the deepest penetration, was forced to surrender. The French, being the French, played both sides. 😉 The Americans were able to mount a weak siege, but it was easily broken that spring.
What part of Indonesia is Obama supposed to visit? Will that part of the trip be canceled due to ash in the air? India is having crews remove coconuts from trees so none of them fall on Obama. I can’t see taking Air Force One anywhere near an ash plume. Maybe he should just cancel the whole trip and save us some money and CO2.
Just an FYI
For those that are interested in following
volcanic activity wordwide ..
http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/
Triff ..
How does the current volcanism compare to Pinatubo?
Triffin is referring to Dr. Erik Klemettis’s excellent blog on volcanoes. One of the commentators on his blog is Dr. Boris Behncke, who is a vulcanologist in Italy. He commented that this eruption is still much, much smaller then Pinatubo. I think the numbers he gave indicated that Pinatubo was more then 250X greater then Merapi, at least at the time he gave the comment on Wednesday. Of course that could change, but so far nothing about this eruption would indicate that it will have any impact on climate. Unfortunately it has had a tragic impact on the people living nearby.
Someone mentioned Mt. St. Helens, which was a fairly large eruption, but again much smaller then Pinatubo, and did not have any effect on the climate. Eruptions VEI 4 or so happen several times every year, and usually do not make the news unless it has a major impact on people, such as a death toll like this volcano has had or impacts on air travel.
This thing is going to go on for a couple of months. The total VEI of an eruption period is not calculated until the end of the eruption year.
I sure notice more cloud cover. At least two plumes in Russia (Kliuchevskoi and Shiveluch) made stratosphere in October.
http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html
When you think of all the carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. plants, carbonates, idiot scientists, etc) it is a very good thing that volcanoes are there to help replenish CO2 in the atmosphere. As we all know, without CO2 in the atmosphere there would not be life on earth. It is just too bad that people go built houses on them.
Glenn says: “I think perhaps the problem is that Mother Nature doesn’t make plans, she kinda goes with the flow. I think there’s something in that for all of us.”
Or maybe the problem is in anthropomorphizing natural forces.
More SO2 images here:
http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/
Click the map on the left for a close-up …
How does the amount of CO2 belched by volcanoes compare with the amount produced by man? If this eruption continues for months, or if it erupts in a huge way, will it show up in the Hawaii CO2 measurements?
I believe the situation is changing. Last night’s bigger eruption reached at least 55,000 feet and it injected significant SO2: http://sacs.aeronomie.be/nrt/Gome2Nrt/2010/11.orb/05/gome2_vcd20101105_000_lr.gif
jorgekafkazar,
What would Mother Gaia say about your comment??
In times of deepest darkness
I’ve seen him dressed in black…
Now my tapestry is unraveling
He’s (*)come to take me back….(**)
(*) Al. the six,six, six, prophet
(**)Carole King’s “Tapestry”