Indonesia Volcano’s Eruptions Stump Scientists
By Lauren Frayer, AOL News
Eruptions from Indonesia’s ferocious Mount Merapi keep getting worse, prompting more villagers to run for their lives and puzzling scientists trying to decipher Mother Nature’s plans.
Hot ash clouds are sweeping across central Java, shooting up to six miles into the sky and snarling local air traffic. Today’s booming eruptions have been the strongest since Merapi—whose name means “Mountain of Fire” in Javanese—exploded on Oct. 26, volcanologist Kurniadi Rinekso told Agence France-Presse.
Indonesian officials announced five more deaths from the suffocating lava and smoke, raising Merapi’s total death toll to at least 44, CNN reported. Nearly 75,000 people are huddled in evacuation shelters far from their livelihoods, and it doesn’t look as if they’ll be able to return home anytime soon.
“It looks like we may be entering an even worse stage,” state volcanologist Surono told The Associated Press. After predicting earlier this week that eruptions would ease up, scientists are throwing up their hands as they are confronted today with eruptions three times stronger than expected. “We have no idea what’s happening now,” Surono said.
Merapi’s ash prompted global concern today when a Qantas airliner suffered engine failure after takeoff from Singapore’s airport. The incident occurred several hundred miles away from Merapi, and officials say they’re still investigating, but it appears unlikely that volcanic ash could have affected the plane. The A380 managed an emergency landing back in Singapore, and no one was hurt.
The latest eruptions have also been accompanied by tremors, a sign that energy is still pent up inside the volcano and unable to escape, the head of the Volcanic Technology Development and Research Center, Subandrio, told The Jakarta Post.
“This can [also] be seen from the hot clouds that have been rising from the mountain’s peak,” he said.
Indonesia’s island archipelago sits on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, where the world’s most volatile fault lines lie deep under the earth’s crust. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common there along the eastern and western Pacific rims.
See story here.
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Reports from the Global Volcanism Program:
According to the Darwin VAAC, ground-based reports indicated an eruption from Merapi on 28 October. Cloud cover prevented satellite observations. CVGHM reported that two pyroclastic flows occurred on 30 October. According to a news article, ash fell in Yogyakarta, 30 km SSW, causing low visibility. CVGHM noted four pyroclastic flows the next day.
On 1 November an eruption began mid-morning with a low-frequency earthquake and avalanches. About seven pyroclastic flows occurred during the next few hours, traveling SSE a maximum distance of 4 km. A gas-and-ash plume rose 1.5 km above the crater and drifted E and N. CVGHM recommended that evacuees from several communities within a 10-km radius should continue to stay in shelters or safe areas. The Darwin VAAC reported that a possible eruption on 1 November produced an ash plume that rose to an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l., according to ground-based reports, analyses of satellite imagery, and web camera views. On 2 November an ash plume was seen in satellite imagery drifting 75 km N at an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l. News outlets noted diversions and cancellations of flights in and out of the Solo (40 km E) and Yogyakarta airports. The Alert Level remained at 4 (on a scale of 1-4).
CVGHM reported 26 pyroclastic flows on 2 November. A mid-day report on 3 November stated that 38 pyroclastic flows occurred during the first 12 hours of the day. An observer from the Kaliurang post saw 19 of those 38 flows travel 4 km S. Plumes from the pyroclastic flows rose 1.2 km, although dense fog made visual observations difficult. Ashfall was noted in some nearby areas.
Geologic Summary. Merapi, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, lies in one of the world’s most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape immediately N of the major city of Yogyakarta. The steep-sided modern Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent eruptive activity, was constructed to the SW of an arcuate scarp cutting the eroded older Batulawang volcano. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated cultivated and inhabited lands on the volcano’s western-to-southern flanks and caused many fatalities during historical time. The volcano is the object of extensive monitoring efforts by the Merapi Volcano Observatory (MVO).
Sources: Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), CNN, BBC News
“The latest eruptions have also been accompanied by tremors, a sign that energy is still pent up inside the volcano and unable to escape,”
I have read that the tremors indicate that the magma chamber is filling up.
This is all our fault. Scientists tried to warn us, but we didn’t listen. If we hadn’t left our thermostats set at 74 degrees all summer and gone on planet killing vacations, this catastrophe would never have happened:
“Climate change could spark more ‘hazardous’ geological events such as volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides, scientists warned today. In papers published by the Royal Society, researchers warned that melting ice, sea level rises and even increasingly heavy storms and rainfall – predicted consequences of rising temperatures – could affect the Earth’s crust.”:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1267137/Climate-change-spark-volcanoes-earthquakes-tsunamis.html
Thank God San Francisco banned ‘Happy Meals’. Someone has to keep you eco-criminals at WUWT from killing more children.
Alan the Brit says:
November 5, 2010 at 4:09 am
…
I think you meant “she kinda goes with the pyroclastic flow”! :-))
Lahar de har har! 😉
I read it was more than 100 dead, still counting upwards. Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!
Ozymandias ~ Percy Shelley
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!‘
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away”.
Volcanic ash and lava would do as well as sand.
Breaking News ALERT!! United States Secret Service has announced that in light of the President’s upcoming trip to the region, for security purposes they will take the unprecedented move of not only ensuring all coconuts are removed from trees in India, but also removing Indonesia’s Mount Merapi, which has been releasing potential dangerous lava, ash, and gasses. An Obama official who asked to remain anonymous because he is not authorized to speak to the press, quotes Obama as stating “Cost is no issue, this is a simple matter of national security.” Hilary Clinton, on being asked about this announcement, ridiculed the idea that anyone could question this move “its just more evidence of the vast right-wing conspiracy. Claims that this will cost the equivalent of the USA’s annual GDP are vastly exaggerated” stated Ms Clinton. More information to follow as news develops.
(sorry, I just couldn’t resist!)
There was a report of significant activity by a couple volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula about a week ago, but I haven’t seen any further coverage. Anyone heard what the present status of these volcanoes is?
All My Volcanoes, which in this case happens to be worse than they thought.
Volcanoes just love low Solar Activity, and are often observed throwing parties, much to the dismay of residents and computer modelers.
Hey, it comes with the territory: Land is very fertile on volcanic slopes and flows, and that’s the reason you have people willing to resettle after the thing has done it’s deed.
Alan the Brit says:
November 5, 2010 at 4:09 am
I think you meant “she kinda goes with the pyroclastic flow”! :-))
Earle Williams says:
November 5, 2010 at 1:43 pm
Lahar de har har! 😉
Not bad lads. I’m trying to think of one but I’m not to ignimbrite.
Andrew30 said “When that happens you should not expect others to see you as a victim since you chose to be part of the event.”
What a stunningly foolish and ignorant statement. Could you even find Indonesia on a map?
Hm. First earthquakes and tsunamis, now massive volcanic activity.
If you convert INDONESIA to ASCII and add the numbers together, the sum is 666. Coincidence? I think not…
Could you consider doing a post on the amount of sulfate particulates being put into the stratosphere by recent eruptions (Indonesia, Iceland, ?) vs. Pinatubo and the likelihood of effects on global climate?
Dave Wendt, you can check on Kamchatka here.
KVERT: KVERT INFORMATION RELEASES
http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/updates.php
Every region can be accessed from here:
Global Volcanism Program | Volcanic Activity Reports | Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report |
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/#soufhill
They (Kliuchevskoi and Shiveluch) were red for a few days a couple of weeks ago. But settled back down and were returned to orange color code.
I’d have to agree pretty much with this comment below, less UV radiation from the sun has an effect with time. The additional dimming from good size eruptions is a double whammy that speeds things up. Since these two eruptions at http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/find_eruptions.cfm
Hudson, Cerro
Chile 1991 Aug 8 1991 Oct 27 5+
Pinatubo
Philippines 1991 Apr 2 1991 Sep 2 6
If you go to that link and type in the following years, especially since 1995, you’ll see that the numbers and total VEI of eruptions have significantly increased over what is recorded for 2 decades prior. This increase all added up means significantly more CO2, Tom.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/04/rss-global-temperature-anomaly-takes-a-dive/#comment-523778
salvatore del prete says:
November 5, 2010 at 6:53 am
“Factors that control climate are
1. Solar Activity
2. Volcanic Activity
3. SOI Oscillation
4.PDO and AMO Oscillations
5. AO,AAO,NAO atmospheric circulations to name a few, and polar vortex size and strength
How all the above PHASE together will determine the future temperature. They seem to be phasing into a cold mode, if this continues temperatures will be going down. End of story.”
In my opinion with volcanic activity, location, water vapor content, aerosols and altitude govern what effects the plumes will have. High water vapor content significantly adds to humidity, not so much with cold oceans and lakes with lower evaporation from them. Ash aerosols at low altitude can at times actually warm the surrounding air because they absorb solar radiation such as UV and give off heat, if the plumes did not go high enough to dim out the solar radiation reaching low level. A lack of volcanic activity will increase solar brightening to the ground and oceans, also producing heat. They’re not just a wild card.
Something from a Cliff Harris article on volcanic activity increasing worldwide:
“Here are the 20 most deadly volcanic eruptions in the past 500 years worldwide and their approximately death tolls:
Kelut, Indonesia, 1586: 10,000
Vesuvius, Italy, 1631: 4,000
Oshima, Japan, 1741: 1,481
Papadanyan, Indonesia, 1772: 2,960 Lakagigar, Iceland, 1783: 9,340
Unze, Japan, 1792: 15,000
Tambora, Indonesia, 1815: 92,000 Galunggung, Indonesia, 1822: 4,000 Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia, 1845: 36,417
Krakatau, Indonesia, 1883: 36,417
Ritter, Paupa New Guinea, 1888: 3,000
Mount Pelee, Martinique, 1902: 29,000
Kelut, Indonesia, 1919: 5,110
Lamington, Papua New Guinea, 1951: 2,942
Hibok-Hibok, Philippines, 1951: 500
Agung, Indonesia, 1963: 1,148”
Climatologist Cliff Harris writes a weekly column for The Coeur d’Alene Press.
http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_a359d6f3-fc9c-53ed-9a50-cdda114380bd.html
Im glad someone already mentioned the Russian volcanoes and there is one in Iceland that has its glacier pouring into it, http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010/11/01/iceland-volcano-flood-grimsvotn.html , which has caused eruptions when circumstances were similar.
I usually check this list http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/ but its flaw is that it only gets updated once a week and its often incomplete .
“tom says:
November 5, 2010 at 10:34 am”
Human activity is attributed to ~6 billion tonnes of C02 emissions annually, apparently. Of that ~50% “disappears” (Well that’s what scientists tell us anyway), which is why a satellite was launched, and crashed before going operational, to find out where it went. So this ~6 billion tonnes represents the ~3% of C02 emissions attributed to human activity suggests the other ~97% from Gaia quite a bit of a bigger problem (Which we all know is a non-problem, but fossil fuels and energy use by humans can be taxed).
Highlighting Indonesia/PNG and deaths over 10K is very revealing. There’s a numerical error with either Krakatau or Nevada del Ruiz or both. Tamboora is the worst, and it produced the “year without a summer”, and of course the most recent supervolcano was Toba, also in Indonesia.
We can see this plate-grinding vulcanism in the very landforms of Indonesia – strung out along those great fault lines that are part of the Pacific Rim. Wht, oh what, causes this fractal focussing of patterns?
Ed Murphy says:
November 6, 2010 at 1:37 am
Thanks for the links, saved me a lot of dumpster diving thru Google!
How plausible is the Mega-Eruption scenario? Is it similar to asteroid doomsday scenarios?
http://notrickszone.com/2010/11/05/der-spiegel-geologists-warn-mega-eruption/
pkatt says:November 6, 2010 at 2:36 am
I usually check this list http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/ but its flaw is that it only gets updated once a week and its often incomplete .
Also, that report is often based on estimated eruptions based on seismic data, and it is compiled expressly for impacts on aviation.
Better, up to date information and additional links in the comments can be found at sites such as:
http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/
“Kevin says: It’s too bad volcanoes are so deadly, because they’re so frickin’ cool.”
Thread over in one!
Some airlines are canceling flights to Jakarta and a couple of other Indonesian cities. No big surprise I suppose. No idea just where Obama is supposedly going in Indonesia and whether this will affect his trip or not.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1327197/Indonesia-fly-zone-volcano-Mount-Merapi-eruption.html
pwl says:
How plausible is the Mega-Eruption scenario? Is it similar to asteroid doomsday scenarios?
Enjoy life to the fullest!
I hate alarmism, but…
Unfortunately its worse.
Mega-eruptions have caused more wipe-out or near wipe-outs than asteroids. Toba brought human population down to thousands. A mega-eruption of the Deccan Traps after the large asteroid strike at the Yucatan, probably a shock wave effect of that strike, is really what wiped out the dinosaurs imo.
Volcanoes killed off the Neanderthals
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/01/100922-volcanoes-eruptions-neanderthals-science-volcanic-humans/
…
Neanderthals and volcanoes: A recent study by Naomi Cleghorn and others that appeared in Current Anthropology lays the blame for the extinction of the Neanderthals on the Campanian Ignimbrite (amongst others). By examining ash layers in Russian caves that were frequented by Neanderthals, it appears that ~40,000 years ago a number of volcanic ashes accumulated, right before Neanderthals go extinct. The volcanic ash layer related to the Campanian Ignimbrite appears to lack much plant life (pollen, etc.), suggesting that much plant life in Europe was killed due to the eruption, thus likely leading to a decline in the large mammals that the Neanderthals hunted. The fact that the Neanderthal populations were concentrated in Europe – versus the dispersed human populations in Asia and Africa along with Europe—may have lead to their demise. …
Naomi Cleghorn
http://www.uta.edu/ra/real/editprofile.php?pid=4919&onlyview=1
Current Anthropology
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/toc/ca/current
Neanderthals
http://archaeology.about.com/od/hominidancestors/a/neander.htm
Campanian Ignimbrite
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18937961
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php
I meant the Siberian Traps, unhh, I’m losing my mind
Ive had a bad feeling about this,iam trying not to think about it two much but think this could be the triggering of other volcaneos are the world.After all the earth is a ball of fire
Smokey says: “jorgekafkazar, What would Mother Gaia say about your comment??”
LOL
Someone is reporting sighting a new island between Java and Bali. Might be a good item for this blog if confirmed.