Indonesian Volcano eruptions increasing

Indonesia Volcano’s Eruptions Stump Scientists

By Lauren Frayer, AOL News

Eruptions from Indonesia’s ferocious Mount Merapi keep getting worse, prompting more villagers to run for their lives and puzzling scientists trying to decipher Mother Nature’s plans.

image

Hot ash clouds are sweeping across central Java, shooting up to six miles into the sky and snarling local air traffic. Today’s booming eruptions have been the strongest since Merapi—whose name means “Mountain of Fire” in Javanese—exploded on Oct. 26, volcanologist Kurniadi Rinekso told Agence France-Presse.

Indonesian officials announced five more deaths from the suffocating lava and smoke, raising Merapi’s total death toll to at least 44, CNN reported. Nearly 75,000 people are huddled in evacuation shelters far from their livelihoods, and it doesn’t look as if they’ll be able to return home anytime soon.

“It looks like we may be entering an even worse stage,” state volcanologist Surono told The Associated Press. After predicting earlier this week that eruptions would ease up, scientists are throwing up their hands as they are confronted today with eruptions three times stronger than expected. “We have no idea what’s happening now,” Surono said.

Merapi’s ash prompted global concern today when a Qantas airliner suffered engine failure after takeoff from Singapore’s airport. The incident occurred several hundred miles away from Merapi, and officials say they’re still investigating, but it appears unlikely that volcanic ash could have affected the plane. The A380 managed an emergency landing back in Singapore, and no one was hurt.

The latest eruptions have also been accompanied by tremors, a sign that energy is still pent up inside the volcano and unable to escape, the head of the Volcanic Technology Development and Research Center, Subandrio, told The Jakarta Post.

“This can [also] be seen from the hot clouds that have been rising from the mountain’s peak,” he said.

Indonesia’s island archipelago sits on the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, where the world’s most volatile fault lines lie deep under the earth’s crust. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common there along the eastern and western Pacific rims.

See story here.

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Reports from the Global Volcanism Program:

According to the Darwin VAAC, ground-based reports indicated an eruption from Merapi on 28 October. Cloud cover prevented satellite observations. CVGHM reported that two pyroclastic flows occurred on 30 October. According to a news article, ash fell in Yogyakarta, 30 km SSW, causing low visibility. CVGHM noted four pyroclastic flows the next day.

On 1 November an eruption began mid-morning with a low-frequency earthquake and avalanches. About seven pyroclastic flows occurred during the next few hours, traveling SSE a maximum distance of 4 km. A gas-and-ash plume rose 1.5 km above the crater and drifted E and N. CVGHM recommended that evacuees from several communities within a 10-km radius should continue to stay in shelters or safe areas. The Darwin VAAC reported that a possible eruption on 1 November produced an ash plume that rose to an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l., according to ground-based reports, analyses of satellite imagery, and web camera views. On 2 November an ash plume was seen in satellite imagery drifting 75 km N at an altitude of 6.1 km (20,000 ft) a.s.l. News outlets noted diversions and cancellations of flights in and out of the Solo (40 km E) and Yogyakarta airports. The Alert Level remained at 4 (on a scale of 1-4).

CVGHM reported 26 pyroclastic flows on 2 November. A mid-day report on 3 November stated that 38 pyroclastic flows occurred during the first 12 hours of the day. An observer from the Kaliurang post saw 19 of those 38 flows travel 4 km S. Plumes from the pyroclastic flows rose 1.2 km, although dense fog made visual observations difficult. Ashfall was noted in some nearby areas.

Geologic Summary. Merapi, one of Indonesia’s most active volcanoes, lies in one of the world’s most densely populated areas and dominates the landscape immediately N of the major city of Yogyakarta. The steep-sided modern Merapi edifice, its upper part unvegetated due to frequent eruptive activity, was constructed to the SW of an arcuate scarp cutting the eroded older Batulawang volcano. Pyroclastic flows and lahars accompanying growth and collapse of the steep-sided active summit lava dome have devastated cultivated and inhabited lands on the volcano’s western-to-southern flanks and caused many fatalities during historical time. The volcano is the object of extensive monitoring efforts by the Merapi Volcano Observatory (MVO).

Map

Sources: Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), CNN, BBC News

 

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76 thoughts on “Indonesian Volcano eruptions increasing

  1. Is there enough going up 6kms to cause any significant ash-gas cover to spread out for any global cooling…or is it too small at present? Any takers!

  2. If the warmists claim they’ve recorded a reduction in ‘global average temperature’ (meaningless that it is) as a result of the emissions from this and other recent volcanoes, they will undoubtedly lobby their respective governments to increase funding of the projects to pollute the stratosphere with sulphur.

  3. Wow! Could this be a BIG ONE we’re going to see? It’s going to kill a lot more than 44 people if it is.
    We’ll see what actually happens around the world if we get a “year without a summer” out of this, and my guess is that it wouldn’t be pretty.

  4. I’m going to be working in Indonesia in the New Year and will be flying from Jakarta east to Irian Jaya. If Merapi is still going I’ll get a good view!

  5. Fortunately the RSS and UAH temps have already started their decline. You can be certain that further declines will be blamed on this volcano. Expect to see the word “masked” attached to the word “warming,” over the next two years.

  6. If this does a Krakatoa or a Mt St Helens, this could interesting indeed. There would be a huge loss of life, probably bigger than the Boxing Day tsunami toll, but the ash ejecta into the stratosphere could also cause major disruption to the weather and I dobt anyone will be travelling by air much. Krakatoa gave spectacular sunsets for a year – that much ash is bound to hit air travel.
    I look forward to CRU’s building this into their models!

  7. I think perhaps the problem is that Mother Nature doesn’t make plans, she kinda goes with the flow. I think there’s something in that for all of us.

  8. “H.R. says:
    November 5, 2010 at 1:58 am”
    The Australian summer, at least on the east coast, is not looking to be too hot this year. Last year was, mostly, a year without a summer too, according to the natives (As well as being the second summer without flys). There is a lot of activity around this side of the Rim of Fire however.
    What’s happening in Iceland?

  9. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101103135251.htm
    Volcanoes Have Shifted Asian Rainfall
    ScienceDaily (Nov. 3, 2010) — Scientists have long known that large volcanic explosions can affect the weather by spewing particles that block solar energy and cool the air. Some suspect that extended “volcanic winters” from gigantic blowups helped kill off dinosaurs and Neanderthals. In the summer following Indonesia’s 1815 Tambora eruption, frost wrecked crops as far off as New England, and the 1991 blowout of the Philippines’ Mount Pinatubo lowered average global temperatures by 0.7 degrees F — enough to mask the effects of manmade greenhouse gases for a year or so.

  10. enough to mask the effects of manmade greenhouse gases for a year or so.
    The requisite insistence of a presence of CAGW. They could not simply say…. “enough to drop temperatures to…..”
    Such methods reflect advocacy, not science.

  11. Actually, from a link I followed on an earlier topic post, the Indonesian govt is currently watching 40 volcanoes.
    Add to that Mt. Mt. Mayon in the Philippines, the one up in eastern Russia, and the trio in Alaska acting up…it could get interesting.
    In a bad way.

  12. This is a worry…
    “Indonesia Volcano’s Eruptions Stump Scientists”
    An active volcano erupts and it “stumps” scientists? Is this real? An active volcano on the Rim of Fire?
    When Mt Ruhapeu erupted in New Zealand in 1995 I sure the hell wasn’t stumped when I found out it is a VERY active volcanic region.
    Where can I get a research grant, I can be “stumped” by anything but the bleeding obvious?

  13. Question.
    Could the increasing pressure on the planets surface be causing an increase in eruptions?
    Or is it a case of same amount of eruptions, just some more close to populations?

  14. Glenn says:
    November 5, 2010 at 3:23 am
    I think perhaps the problem is that Mother Nature doesn’t make plans, she kinda goes with the flow. I think there’s something in that for all of us.
    I think you meant “she kinda goes with the pyroclastic flow”! :-))
    Now, if those silly Indonesian/Asian chaps & chapesses took a leaf out of the Union of Eurpoean Socialist Republics/Peoples Democratic Republic of the European Union book, the entire air space could be shut down for months on end if they used the right puter model!!!!!!
    On a more serious note, the loss of life is tragic by any standards, but should this be a foretaste of things to come, perhaps a tragedy of some magnitude might just bring things home to the witless socialist greens that Mother Nature rules the planet, not humn beings, sure we’ve done some pretty stupid things in the past, life is a learning curve after all, but we cannot predict the future with any real certainty, but just be prepared to adapt to it as we have done for around 3 million years or so! After all, we’re better equipped now to do so than at any time before. It would seem that the loss of around 250,000 (if indeed that was the likely number) human lives in the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, shortly before 1am UTC, was not enough to satisfy those who think man can control his global environment! UTC? There was a time when it was GMT. The French just can’t get over it can they, they’re such bad losers, Crecy (1346), Poitiers (1356), Agincourt (1415), Quebec (1775), Peninsular War(1808-14), Trafalgar (1805) Waterloo (1815) (still trying to prevent a single European market), 2003 Rugby World Cup semi-final, 2007 Rugby World Cup semi-final, 2009 Six Nations demolition at Twickers (the dvd player’s worn out)! They really should just learn to take it on the chin you know, we Brits have had to! Oh for the Thin Red Line. (We should never have lost that revolution of the Virginian Colonies, but I must say it worked out rather well in the end I think) 🙂

  15. Why so much billions are being spent on studying the (imaginary) effect of a few ppm increase in atmospheric CO2, which has never really killed anybody, but practically nothing is heard about the real killers…earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions? The latest tsunami of two weeks ago killed hunderds of people, following the hundreds of thousands killed in the great Tsunami of Boxing day 2004.
    The only times humanity suffered was not during global warmings, (on the contrary, society flourished during such times) but during global coolings, be they due to geologic, solar or other activities.
    Ian Holton has already aptly asked:
    >>Ian Holton says:
    November 5, 2010 at 1:36 am
    Is there enough going up 6kms to cause any significant ash-gas cover to spread out for any global cooling…or is it too small at present? Any takers!<<
    Possible global cooling due to these eruptions, added to the current solar inactivity and El Ninia……..brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Any takers? I'm no expert, just asking… Anthony?

  16. Indonesian officials announced five more deaths from the suffocating lava and smoke, raising Merapi’s total death toll to at least 44, CNN reported.
    ABC News (US) just said on Good Morning America (about 7:15 AM EDT) it’s now revised to over a hundred.
    Not to make light of the situation, but will this interfere with the Presidential air armada as they go India and nearby places during the big tour?

  17. While our politicians, MSM journalist try to convince us that we are all gonna die of CO2 induced global warming, however reality and our planet’s forces dictate otherwise:
    http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/weather_news/news_archive/archive/2007/may/ch/ef11373c6e/article/cyclones_in_bangladesh.html
    >The fiercest cyclone ever known around the Bay of Bengal struck Bangladesh on the night of 29 April 1991. It ripped across southern Chittagong with torrential rains, winds of around 250 kph (155mph), and a storm surge six metres (20 feet) high, a combination that killed at least 138,000 people and left up to 10 million homeless…….and on 12 November 1970 Bangladesh was hit by the deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded, and one that may have influenced the political map of the region. Although measured by wind speed it was not as strong as ‘Gorky’, the Category 3 ‘Bhola Cyclone’ accounted for at least 300,000, and probably as many as half a million, fatalities. That makes it one of the worst natural disasters of all time, perhaps worse than the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004.<
    People are not dying because of global warming but because of global inaction and stupidity. I may be digressing from the issue here, but what can exceed the level of the UN's stupidity when it announces the creation of the post of Earth's ambassador for aliens..in case these exist and visit us for an afternoon coffee break. Quote:Mazlan Othman, a Malaysian astrophysicist, is set to be tasked with co-ordinating humanity’s response if and when extraterrestrials make contact. Too much Stephen Spielberg movies being shown inside the UN building maybe?

  18. I have a quick question for any vulcanologists who may be reading this; or indeed anyone with the relevant knowledge.
    Is there an index or a scale that measures the comparative energy output of volcanic eruptions, as there is for earthquakes? If so, how does Merapi measure up against such eruptions as Pinatubo, or Mount Saint Helens, or even monsters such as Krakatoa and Tambora?
    Any information would be welcome.
    [REPLY: What you refer to is the VEI / Volcanic Explosivity Index
    http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/images/pglossary/vei.php .. ..bl57~mod]

  19. Sincere apologies to the Virginian Colonials, wrong battle of Quebec, should have been 1759 General James Wolfe……………………….err…………………….we lost that 1775 one to……………………………err…………..well you guys! 🙁

  20. The Indonesian Volcanological department from reading there seismic charts are fearing a massive eruption. Each eruption is getting larger.
    The latest report issued by them indicates that between 0600 and 1400 5/11/10 there was continuous tremor, pyroclastic flows and explosions.
    They are recommending all residents to take safe cover further than the current exclusion zone of 20 kilometres radias.
    Indonesia has the largest amount of active volcanoes than any other country – there are always a couple on high alert. Nothing out of the ordinary. It’s just that Merapi is located in a high population zone.
    To influence weather patterns an eruption must send ejecta well up into the stratosphere 100,000+ feet and plenty of SO2 and dust with it. Last estimate of this Merapi eruption ejecta was .05 million Cubic kilometres although this figure has surely increased. By contrast Pinatubo was 10 cubic kilometres of ejecta and Tambora (1815) 100 cubic kilometres of ejecta.

  21. “David Wright says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:44 am”
    The, what is now Lake Toupo (Pronouced Toe-Pour, as best as I can represent), eruption in New Zealand drawfs these events by several mangintudes.

  22. It would seem that historically a quite sun tends to make our little planet somewhat angry. The reasons yet to be understood, our fading magnetism perhaps a part of it. I do feel that the next few decades will prove to be a water shed for the demise of AGW and the digging up of coal an expanding and necessary part of survival.
    Sad a little that my grand children may not perhaps enjoy the benign peace and climate that I have had the privilege of. It also saddens me that science has retreated into a shell and rejects all ideas outside the safety barrier of consensus. Strangely volcanoes are a molten plasma isolated from the earths inner molten mantle, a ball of energy agitated and made molten by the very same harmonics that are used for the detonation of atomic bombs.
    Thus the alignments and harmonics are predictable and the big bangs easily predictable, I can only imagine that the equations are supposed to be secret, thus people die for no good reason. Maybe one day humanitarian real scientists will step up to the plate and allow the plebs of the world an explanation as to why they are failing us.
    Where are the institutions of higher learning teaching the young the art of free thought, rather than the existing paradigm, the 20th century after great turmoil held such promise, frittered away and destroyed by a selfish generation of politically correct self serving elitists who believe only their world view and ideas are correct.
    Volcanoes and earth quakes may be the straw that broke the camels back.

  23. Alex the skeptic says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:39 am
    People are not dying because of global warming but because of global inaction and stupidity.
    ============================================================
    Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe. – Frank Zappa

  24. Maybe a little reminder here that this eruption is not just a debating point but is affecting and taking many lives.

  25. My research shows that volcanic eruptions occur at solar forced temperature uplifts. Many of the largest historic eruptions have occurred on strong warming spurts following very cold winters.
    On this basis I have been successfully predicting times of new activity since 2008 at a weekly definition.
    I had specifically determined Indonesia to be at risk from new activity this Autumn:
    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/07/10/something-is-brewing/#comment-1095

  26. Ian Holton says:
    November 5, 2010 at 1:36 am
    “Is there enough going up 6kms to cause any significant ash-gas cover to spread out for any global cooling…or is it too small at present? Any takers!”
    Sulfates (the stuff that causes acid rain), not ash, are the primary suspects when it comes to cooling. A recent article here:
    http://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifts_in_asian_rainfall_tied_to_major_volcanic_eruptions/2673/
    admits this isn’t well understood either as “the models” all predicted patterns of reduced rainfall in areas effected by large volcanic eruptions – the sulfate particles reflect sunlight back into space lowering the surface temperature and hence lowering surface evaporation rate which means fewer clouds and fewer clouds mean less rainfall.
    In fact it does work that way in some areas but in others there is increased rainfall that the models do not predict. My guess is that other particulates, particularly ash and soot, form nucleation points for raindrops and hence cause more rain than less while the ash is resident in the atmosphere. Ash doesn’t usually persist for a long time unless the eruption is violent enough to drive it into the stratosphere where jet streams can spread it around the globe. Even so it’s eventually going to settle out of the stratosphere and potentially change rain patterns via water droplet formation around the increased number of particulates.

  27. Woody says: November 5, 2010 at 5:43 am
    “Maybe a little reminder here that this eruption is not just a debating point but is affecting and taking many lives.”
    Yes, that is clear, people are dying and being left homeless.
    Do not build your home near a volcano, on a fault line, beneath a steep mountain slope or in a flood plain.
    If you do then something will eventually occur that will do you serious damage.
    When that happens you should not expect others to see you as a victim since you chose to be part of the event.

  28. The big one, as far as human evolution is concerned, was Toba, c-70,000BC. The effects of that can still be traced in the human genetic markers.

  29. “Alan the Brit says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:47 am
    Sincere apologies to the Virginian Colonials, wrong battle of Quebec, should have been 1759 General James Wolfe……………………….err…………………….we lost that 1775 one to……………………………err…………..well you guys! :-(”
    Not exactly. As much as it pains this American, we lost the battle in 1775. While we captured Montreal on the way to Quebec, we lost as Quebec when the American commander was killed early into the battle and the forces he led retreated. Benedict Arnold continued with Morgan but Arnold was injured and forced to retreat while Morgan and his forces, having made the deepest penetration, was forced to surrender. The French, being the French, played both sides. 😉 The Americans were able to mount a weak siege, but it was easily broken that spring.

  30. What part of Indonesia is Obama supposed to visit? Will that part of the trip be canceled due to ash in the air? India is having crews remove coconuts from trees so none of them fall on Obama. I can’t see taking Air Force One anywhere near an ash plume. Maybe he should just cancel the whole trip and save us some money and CO2.

  31. Triffin is referring to Dr. Erik Klemettis’s excellent blog on volcanoes. One of the commentators on his blog is Dr. Boris Behncke, who is a vulcanologist in Italy. He commented that this eruption is still much, much smaller then Pinatubo. I think the numbers he gave indicated that Pinatubo was more then 250X greater then Merapi, at least at the time he gave the comment on Wednesday. Of course that could change, but so far nothing about this eruption would indicate that it will have any impact on climate. Unfortunately it has had a tragic impact on the people living nearby.
    Someone mentioned Mt. St. Helens, which was a fairly large eruption, but again much smaller then Pinatubo, and did not have any effect on the climate. Eruptions VEI 4 or so happen several times every year, and usually do not make the news unless it has a major impact on people, such as a death toll like this volcano has had or impacts on air travel.

  32. When you think of all the carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. plants, carbonates, idiot scientists, etc) it is a very good thing that volcanoes are there to help replenish CO2 in the atmosphere. As we all know, without CO2 in the atmosphere there would not be life on earth. It is just too bad that people go built houses on them.

  33. Glenn says: “I think perhaps the problem is that Mother Nature doesn’t make plans, she kinda goes with the flow. I think there’s something in that for all of us.”
    Or maybe the problem is in anthropomorphizing natural forces.

  34. How does the amount of CO2 belched by volcanoes compare with the amount produced by man? If this eruption continues for months, or if it erupts in a huge way, will it show up in the Hawaii CO2 measurements?

  35. In times of deepest darkness
    I’ve seen him dressed in black…
    Now my tapestry is unraveling
    He’s (*)come to take me back….
    (**)
    (*) Al. the six,six, six, prophet
    (**)Carole King’s “Tapestry”

  36. “The latest eruptions have also been accompanied by tremors, a sign that energy is still pent up inside the volcano and unable to escape,”
    I have read that the tremors indicate that the magma chamber is filling up.

  37. This is all our fault. Scientists tried to warn us, but we didn’t listen. If we hadn’t left our thermostats set at 74 degrees all summer and gone on planet killing vacations, this catastrophe would never have happened:
    “Climate change could spark more ‘hazardous’ geological events such as volcanoes, earthquakes and landslides, scientists warned today. In papers published by the Royal Society, researchers warned that melting ice, sea level rises and even increasingly heavy storms and rainfall – predicted consequences of rising temperatures – could affect the Earth’s crust.”:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1267137/Climate-change-spark-volcanoes-earthquakes-tsunamis.html
    Thank God San Francisco banned ‘Happy Meals’. Someone has to keep you eco-criminals at WUWT from killing more children.


  38. Alan the Brit says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:09 am

    I think you meant “she kinda goes with the pyroclastic flow”! :-))

    Lahar de har har! 😉

  39. I read it was more than 100 dead, still counting upwards. Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!
    Ozymandias ~ Percy Shelley
    I met a traveller from an antique land
    Who said: “Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
    Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
    Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
    And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
    Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
    Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
    The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
    And on the pedestal these words appear:
    `My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
    Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!
    Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
    The lone and level sands stretch far away”.

    Volcanic ash and lava would do as well as sand.

  40. Breaking News ALERT!! United States Secret Service has announced that in light of the President’s upcoming trip to the region, for security purposes they will take the unprecedented move of not only ensuring all coconuts are removed from trees in India, but also removing Indonesia’s Mount Merapi, which has been releasing potential dangerous lava, ash, and gasses. An Obama official who asked to remain anonymous because he is not authorized to speak to the press, quotes Obama as stating “Cost is no issue, this is a simple matter of national security.” Hilary Clinton, on being asked about this announcement, ridiculed the idea that anyone could question this move “its just more evidence of the vast right-wing conspiracy. Claims that this will cost the equivalent of the USA’s annual GDP are vastly exaggerated” stated Ms Clinton. More information to follow as news develops.
    (sorry, I just couldn’t resist!)

  41. There was a report of significant activity by a couple volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula about a week ago, but I haven’t seen any further coverage. Anyone heard what the present status of these volcanoes is?

  42. All My Volcanoes, which in this case happens to be worse than they thought.
    Volcanoes just love low Solar Activity, and are often observed throwing parties, much to the dismay of residents and computer modelers.
    Hey, it comes with the territory: Land is very fertile on volcanic slopes and flows, and that’s the reason you have people willing to resettle after the thing has done it’s deed.

  43. Alan the Brit says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:09 am
    I think you meant “she kinda goes with the pyroclastic flow”! :-))
    Earle Williams says:
    November 5, 2010 at 1:43 pm
    Lahar de har har! 😉
    Not bad lads. I’m trying to think of one but I’m not to ignimbrite.

  44. Andrew30 said “When that happens you should not expect others to see you as a victim since you chose to be part of the event.”
    What a stunningly foolish and ignorant statement. Could you even find Indonesia on a map?

  45. Hm. First earthquakes and tsunamis, now massive volcanic activity.
    If you convert INDONESIA to ASCII and add the numbers together, the sum is 666. Coincidence? I think not…

  46. Could you consider doing a post on the amount of sulfate particulates being put into the stratosphere by recent eruptions (Indonesia, Iceland, ?) vs. Pinatubo and the likelihood of effects on global climate?

  47. Dave Wendt, you can check on Kamchatka here.
    KVERT: KVERT INFORMATION RELEASES
    http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/updates.php
    Every region can be accessed from here:
    Global Volcanism Program | Volcanic Activity Reports | Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report |
    http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/#soufhill
    They (Kliuchevskoi and Shiveluch) were red for a few days a couple of weeks ago. But settled back down and were returned to orange color code.
    I’d have to agree pretty much with this comment below, less UV radiation from the sun has an effect with time. The additional dimming from good size eruptions is a double whammy that speeds things up. Since these two eruptions at http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/find_eruptions.cfm
    Hudson, Cerro
    Chile 1991  Aug 8  1991 Oct 27  5+
    Pinatubo
    Philippines 1991  Apr 2  1991 Sep 2  6
    If you go to that link and type in the following years, especially since 1995, you’ll see that the numbers and total VEI of eruptions have significantly increased over what is recorded for 2 decades prior. This increase all added up means significantly more CO2, Tom.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/04/rss-global-temperature-anomaly-takes-a-dive/#comment-523778
    salvatore del prete says:
    November 5, 2010 at 6:53 am
    “Factors that control climate are
    1. Solar Activity
    2. Volcanic Activity
    3. SOI Oscillation
    4.PDO and AMO Oscillations
    5. AO,AAO,NAO atmospheric circulations to name a few, and polar vortex size and strength
    How all the above PHASE together will determine the future temperature. They seem to be phasing into a cold mode, if this continues temperatures will be going down. End of story.”
    In my opinion with volcanic activity, location, water vapor content, aerosols and altitude govern what effects the plumes will have. High water vapor content significantly adds to humidity, not so much with cold oceans and lakes with lower evaporation from them. Ash aerosols at low altitude can at times actually warm the surrounding air because they absorb solar radiation such as UV and give off heat, if the plumes did not go high enough to dim out the solar radiation reaching low level. A lack of volcanic activity will increase solar brightening to the ground and oceans, also producing heat. They’re not just a wild card.
    Something from a Cliff Harris article on volcanic activity increasing worldwide:
    “Here are the 20 most deadly volcanic eruptions in the past 500 years worldwide and their approximately death tolls:
    Kelut, Indonesia, 1586: 10,000
    Vesuvius, Italy, 1631: 4,000
    Oshima, Japan, 1741: 1,481
    Papadanyan, Indonesia, 1772: 2,960 Lakagigar, Iceland, 1783: 9,340
    Unze, Japan, 1792: 15,000
    Tambora, Indonesia, 1815: 92,000 Galunggung, Indonesia, 1822: 4,000 Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia, 1845: 36,417
    Krakatau, Indonesia, 1883: 36,417
    Ritter, Paupa New Guinea, 1888: 3,000
    Mount Pelee, Martinique, 1902: 29,000
    Kelut, Indonesia, 1919: 5,110
    Lamington, Papua New Guinea, 1951: 2,942
    Hibok-Hibok, Philippines, 1951: 500
    Agung, Indonesia, 1963: 1,148”
    Climatologist Cliff Harris writes a weekly column for The Coeur d’Alene Press.
    http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_a359d6f3-fc9c-53ed-9a50-cdda114380bd.html

  48. “tom says:
    November 5, 2010 at 10:34 am”
    Human activity is attributed to ~6 billion tonnes of C02 emissions annually, apparently. Of that ~50% “disappears” (Well that’s what scientists tell us anyway), which is why a satellite was launched, and crashed before going operational, to find out where it went. So this ~6 billion tonnes represents the ~3% of C02 emissions attributed to human activity suggests the other ~97% from Gaia quite a bit of a bigger problem (Which we all know is a non-problem, but fossil fuels and energy use by humans can be taxed).

  49. Ed Murphy says: November 6, 2010 at 1:37 am
    Here are the 20 most deadly volcanic eruptions in the past 500 years worldwide and their approximately death tolls:
    Kelut, Indonesia, 1586: 10,000
    Vesuvius, Italy, 1631: 4,000
    Oshima, Japan, 1741: 1,481
    Papadanyan, Indonesia, 1772: 2,960
    Lakagigar, Iceland, 1783: 9,340
    Unze, Japan, 1792: 15,000
    Tambora, Indonesia, 1815: 92,000
    Galunggung, Indonesia, 1822: 4,000
    Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia, 1845: 36,417
    Krakatau, Indonesia, 1883: 36,417
    Ritter, Papua New Guinea, 1888: 3,000
    Mount Pelee, Martinique, 1902: 29,000
    Kelut, Indonesia, 1919: 5,110
    Lamington, Papua New Guinea, 1951: 2,942
    Hibok-Hibok, Philippines, 1951: 500
    Agung, Indonesia, 1963: 1,148

    Highlighting Indonesia/PNG and deaths over 10K is very revealing. There’s a numerical error with either Krakatau or Nevada del Ruiz or both. Tamboora is the worst, and it produced the “year without a summer”, and of course the most recent supervolcano was Toba, also in Indonesia.
    We can see this plate-grinding vulcanism in the very landforms of Indonesia – strung out along those great fault lines that are part of the Pacific Rim. Wht, oh what, causes this fractal focussing of patterns?

  50. Ed Murphy says:
    November 6, 2010 at 1:37 am
    Thanks for the links, saved me a lot of dumpster diving thru Google!

  51. pkatt says:November 6, 2010 at 2:36 am
    I usually check this list http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/ but its flaw is that it only gets updated once a week and its often incomplete .

    Also, that report is often based on estimated eruptions based on seismic data, and it is compiled expressly for impacts on aviation.
    Better, up to date information and additional links in the comments can be found at sites such as:
    http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions/

  52. “Kevin says: It’s too bad volcanoes are so deadly, because they’re so frickin’ cool.”
    Thread over in one!

  53. pwl says:
    How plausible is the Mega-Eruption scenario? Is it similar to asteroid doomsday scenarios?
    Enjoy life to the fullest!
    I hate alarmism, but…
    Unfortunately its worse.
    Mega-eruptions have caused more wipe-out or near wipe-outs than asteroids. Toba brought human population down to thousands. A mega-eruption of the Deccan Traps after the large asteroid strike at the Yucatan, probably a shock wave effect of that strike, is really what wiped out the dinosaurs imo.
    Volcanoes killed off the Neanderthals
    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/01/100922-volcanoes-eruptions-neanderthals-science-volcanic-humans/

    Neanderthals and volcanoes: A recent study by Naomi Cleghorn and others that appeared in Current Anthropology lays the blame for the extinction of the Neanderthals on the Campanian Ignimbrite (amongst others). By examining ash layers in Russian caves that were frequented by Neanderthals, it appears that ~40,000 years ago a number of volcanic ashes accumulated, right before Neanderthals go extinct. The volcanic ash layer related to the Campanian Ignimbrite appears to lack much plant life (pollen, etc.), suggesting that much plant life in Europe was killed due to the eruption, thus likely leading to a decline in the large mammals that the Neanderthals hunted. The fact that the Neanderthal populations were concentrated in Europe – versus the dispersed human populations in Asia and Africa along with Europe—may have lead to their demise. …
    Naomi Cleghorn
    http://www.uta.edu/ra/real/editprofile.php?pid=4919&onlyview=1
    Current Anthropology
    http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/toc/ca/current
    Neanderthals
    http://archaeology.about.com/od/hominidancestors/a/neander.htm
    Campanian Ignimbrite
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18937961
    http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php

  54. Ive had a bad feeling about this,iam trying not to think about it two much but think this could be the triggering of other volcaneos are the world.After all the earth is a ball of fire

  55. Someone is reporting sighting a new island between Java and Bali. Might be a good item for this blog if confirmed.

  56. RE: Adam Gallon: (November 5, 2010 at 7:06 am)
    “The big one, as far as human evolution is concerned, was Toba, c-70,000BC. The effects of that can still be traced in the human genetic markers.
    One possible alternative explanation for convergence of human genetic markers at this time period would be that modern man evolved from a limited population of hominids that were trapped in a small challenging habitat that fostered rapid evolution — perhaps the original ‘Garden of Eden’ was a small island off the coast of Africa.

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