Downtown Los Angeles scorches with temperatures 110+ F … NWS Current temp at USC
[UPDATE: 2:30 PM Pacific: USC station no longer reporting?- Ryan 2:52 FIXED LINK – Anthony] WUWT: oh little sensor: why did you stop reporting the temperature after 1947 UTC?
[UPDATE: For a look at the USC station see this WUWT post. -Anthony]
Quick flashback 5-days ago: USA Today / AP: California’s ‘invisible summer’ slips away and the obligatory image of the hooded sweatshirt jogger…
LOS ANGELES — No need to root around the closet for sweaters and jackets: Californians never really put them away this year.“The invisible summer, seamless from spring to fall,” said Bill Patzert, a scientist at NASA‘s Jet Propulsion Laboratory who studies the role of oceans in the global climate.
In Los Angeles, the last full day of summer passed Tuesday under the gloom of a deep marine layer — the low clouds and fog that put a damper on many beach excursions and made a dip in the surf bracing.
“The ocean never warmed,” Patzert said.
As if on cue, the beginning of fall heralds a brief but impressive heat wave with temperatures well above 100F in locations that saw a below-average, somewhat gloomy summer 2010.
Today: USA Today / AP reports: Scorching heat raises wildfire fears in California
LOS ANGELES (AP) — It’s been a scorching start for fall in California and it only looks to be getting hotter.Summer-like temperatures were expected through Monday, with downtown Los Angeles predicted to reach a high of 107 degrees. That would break a record for the day of 106 degrees that was set in 1963.
Comment ideas: how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen? Please forget everything about the article 5-days ago and focus on today’s record heat.
From NASA’s Tale of Two Sites, complimenting Anthony’s post above:
“The move from downtown Los Angeles to USC in 1999 has caused a major hiccup in our local climate history,” said Patzert. “Suddenly, Los Angeles became dryer and cooler, and we were denied a record rain year in 2004-2005. The magnitude of change reflected in our study strongly suggests this relocation will bias long-term climatic studies.”
You don’t say?
Before and After (looks like a nice swimming pool could be inside that fancy fence)
899:
defending weak skepticism is even more boring.
“Most –if not all– computer models which I’ve looked over, don’t consider much beyond the perceived conclusions of the programmers themselves. In fact most are seriously parochial in their scope such as to exclude things which are only now being considered as having far greater affect then was previously thought.
You should step back a bit and reconsider your condemnation.”
1. Most if not all of the computer models I have worked with, built, and tested considered things beyond the perceived conclusions of the programmers themselves.
Gosh, what a fun fact filled debate. Your defense ( appeal to personal experience) is weaker than the argument being offered. And I’ll do you one better, the programs I worked on were way more complicated, way more more important than anything you ever came close to.
Do you see how silly the appeal to personal experience gets. I’m suggesting that Dr. Bill and the rest of you arm chair folks get off your duffs and find some real specific issues.
2. Limited scope is a good thing, provided the results are presented with the appropriate caveats.
Gosh we just had an argument about nothing at all. what a bore.
crosspatch says:
September 27, 2010 at 4:03 pm
I seem to remember it was quite hot when the Oakland Hills fire broke out many years ago. October 19, 1991 was the same temperature as today, September 27, 2010.
That one was ugly. Real ugly-with the wind and smoke you couldn’t do a decent job with retardant-After that fire season, I went home and cut down every Eucalyptus (Australian gasoline trees) on mine and my in-laws property.
The last record high measured temperature in downtown Los Angeles was 112 degrees in 1990 versus 113 degrees today. The difference in the number of huge 50 story plus tall high rise buildings, massive parking structures and larger and wider freeways is astounding. A perfect example the UHI effect at work.
rbateman says: September 27, 2010 at 5:24 pm
“Sound advice: Never send in a computer to do a WeatherMan’s job.”
When the Earth has as few variables as a chessboard has pieces, then a computer model might be able to predict the future.
UHI has an upper limit. It is exposed when the climate fails to warm.
It works exaclty like a natural air inversion, which also has an upper limit set by the prevailing climate.
All are subject to the laws of diminishing returns. The Earth’s climate does as it pleases, and is not intimidated or held to agendas. If it decides to run colder, it will do just that, despite anything we are doing. UHI exists in cities. Cities are not farms, where the food to feed the people in the cities is grown. So, in effect, the rural climate sets an upper limit on the size of cities and their asphalt/concrete jungle, just like it did to the Maya and others.
The lack of summer in LA and other places in the Pacific Gateway to climactic progression should give pause, not the fall weather pattern that runs like a Swiss watch.
In contrast to the assertion of some that weather is not climate, let me remind them that certain weather areas on the Planet are forebears of changes that work thier way downwind…hanging around for decades to come.
Andrew30 says:
September 27, 2010 at 9:05 pm
I doubt it. Training a computer to think has so far befuddled the best minds in Software.
True, it can outcrunch numbers, but it cannot discern what they mean. For that, you need babysitters.
“Douglas Dc says:
That one was ugly. Real ugly-with the wind and smoke you couldn’t do a decent job with retardant-After that fire season, I went home and cut down every Eucalyptus (Australian gasoline trees) on mine and my in-laws property.”
Even on our own property, if we did this in Australia (And New Zealand with it’s native trees) you would go to jail and/or be heavily fined, regardless if the act actually would save lives and property.
Send an e-mail to all your local TV stations’ meteorologists about how the USC station doesn’t meet the NOAA guidelines at all. It should be a class 4 or 5.
Tell them about the surfacestations.org site too. Hopefully some of them will look into it.
I asked Rick Lantz (KTVB Channel 7, Boise, ID) if he was satisfied that the system which provides data he relies on for his job is only 2% accurate and 69% is either class 4 or 5. I copied and pasted the class ratings from the surface stations site, included its URL and the link to the how not to measure temperature page for the USC site.
Mosher, some specifics:
Specific garbage in: aerosols,
Specific missing element: clouds.
Specific models with such problems: useless.
Despite all the blah, blah, blah, you somehow failed to “notice” my main point, which is that radiation and thermodynamics don’t fit well together in any of the models, so there is no purpose served by going into obsessive detail about micron-sized pinpricks when there are barn-door-sized holes being ignored.
You also accomplish nothing by throwing insults at me. That doesn’t distract anyone. It just makes you look weak, and makes you look like someone whose agenda just got stepped on. If anyone has the time to sit on their duff in an armchair and pontificate, that would appear to be you. You certainly seem to spend your “so-called life” doing little but roaming the blogs, while other people, including myself, are normally busy dragging their asses off to work.
Silly tw_t. (and no, that’s not a missing “i”)
/dr.bill
Don’t know where to post this observation, I’ll try it here…
I had a forecast for hurricanes that was dependent upon the charge / discharge cycles of the MHD or homopolar generator effects on the earth.
Charges build up as the outer planets come up to a heliocentric conjunction with the earth, which pushes the jet streams toward the poles, when maintained there due to multiple conjunctions like we just had with Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune, with Mercury and Venus added in the mix this year.
The areas between the polar jets and the equatorial jets fills with air mass with a neutral charge and little moisture, as a result of the blending of the ion charge differences in the recent past precipitation.
Normally with a conjunction with a single outer planet there is a charge increase then a sudden decrease of pole to equator charge that produces surges in rapid condensation on the discharge side of the process, increases the amount of severe weather during that time period.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+48+-update+3600
In this link to a 48 hour loop (66meg a bit slow loading) it is easy to see the deionized air mass being absorbed as the polar and equatorial jets converge again in the mid-latitudes, as we come past the Jupiter / Uranus synod focus of solar wind ion flux as the Coronal holes that poured out the magnetic fields close and rotate away from the earth.
Watch as the dim orange dry areas just fade away as polar and equatorial air masses directly interact over New England and the eastern sea board, with regard to the closing speed of their interactions.
On the west coast the squishing of the dry pale orange air mass by the surge of polar air mass (that has come down in the last four days), has driven the Santa Ana winds out toward the west giving LA the heat spell reported as it often does by this same mechanism in the fall.
Irving Krick used to forecast weather by looking for repeating patterns under similar circumstance, when I had a couple of phone conversations with him right after he and his wife were attacked at home, He was surprised to find that the lunar declinational tides, could explain a lot of the best pattern repeats he had found over the years. Following is a link to a book about his life and times;
http://www.weathersage.com/texts/boesen/
Steven Mosher.
I light of the real science that has been coming to light since the threat of condemnation has been eased, by the choke hold failing to maintain its grip since the fortuitous release of the Emails from East Anglia. I fail to understand how you can not comprehend the enormous gulf between real science, the real world and the realm of cloistered and protected AGW pretend scientists.
Perhaps you have failed to notice the sinusoidal ups and downs of our planetary weather, these undulations tend to take little notice of either our presence or the prognostications of our more celebrated luminary prophets of doom.
As we speak the sun is having a sabbatical holiday as it now and again does in a larger sinusoidal way, this is noticed by some scientists as having a rather profound input into our comfort and well-being.
The machinations of the planetary system, their alignments and harmonic interferences are slowly being deciphered and also effect our well-being and weather. It would seem that our position in our meanderings around the galaxy may also be instramental in causing change. Cycles on cycles, sines on sines, some coming and some going, but alignments occur. Cyclic temperature in ever increasing wave lengths, the big one the ice age. It cometh.
Mosh, if you want more details in a generalised comment on the failure of models to incorporate processes science ADMITS it has poor understanding of, such as cloud formation etc, then why not just ask for more details, the snark is not necessary, only invokes a similar response or worse, and nobody learns. A respectful request for more details would make your point if none was forthcoming.
Steven Mosher says:
“Ryan, he obviously missed the memo. Climate change makes the climate less predictable. that much we can predict, err..
since regional prediction is in its infancy it makes little sense to even suggest that a regional extreme event ( increase in frequency or severity) is a likely consequence.
at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time.”
I’m baffled how this relatively innocuous statement started so much controversy. Steven has already indicated the scope of the models and relevance to local minima/maxima; whats the problem? The “climate change makes the climate less predictable”? He didn’t indicate a basis for climate change, but if there were a climate change wouldn’t it be less predictable and models harder simulate effects?
Which is before and which is after?
Maybe this was an experiment using an ionospheric heater (part of HAARP work). The spike in temperature seems to extreme to be part of the normal variability.
JudyW says:
September 28, 2010 at 4:17 pm
That is like saying putting a stethoscope on your chest is the reason for your unregulated high blood pressure and all of the premature ventricular contractions showing up on your EKG.
Record heat in a parking lot. Whoda thunk.
Interesting correlations between this and previous record for LA.
The old high temp record for LA on this date was 1F cooler at 106 in 1963. That was right around the last time the pacific decadal and antlantic multi-decadal oscillations began a cooling period in phase. It was right on the leading of a plunge down a cooling cliff for US land temperature of 1F in one decade.
And the sun is abnormally quiet too. Which it wasn’t in 1963.
For our sakes anthropogenic global warming better be all it’s cracked up to be or more else we’re heading into another Little Ice Age or worse. If that happens we’ll be in panic mode in 20 years only it’ll be global cooling and it’ll be for real if the sun stays super calm for a Maunder Minimum timespan or even longer.
The PDO and AMDO and USHCN v2 comparative temp graphs are in this excellent recent WUWT article here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/26/a-must-read-european-climate-alpine-glaciers-and-arctic-ice-in-relation-to-north-atlantic-sst-record/#more-25384
I think the disruptists (see Holdren memo: no more warmists) are so anxious to get laws enacted because they realize the climate could begin cooling at any time and cool some most every year for 20 or more years and no transformation to a green global economy is going to happen in that timeframe. Every moment for them is “now or never”.
I lived in the path of the Santa Ana winds (like LA does) for 20 years. I went and checked the local forecasts and sure enough found predictions of strong Santa Anas (due to La Nina) back at least over two weeks ago. They arrived right on time and were record hot for this date.
If you’ve never stood outside in Santa Ana winds coming in off the deserts to the east it’s like standing about 6 feet in front of a 10 kilowatt shop heater with a 36 inch fan on high aimed at your face.