Los Angeles laughs at recent "invisible summer" AP article

By Reed Saxon, AP A man wearing a hooded sweatshirt runs on a cool, cloudy and blustery day near the beach in Los Angeles in July. A chilly summer kept Californians bundled up for much of the season.

Downtown Los Angeles scorches with temperatures 110+ F … NWS Current temp at USC

[UPDATE: 2:30 PM Pacific: USC station no longer reporting?- Ryan  2:52 FIXED LINK – Anthony]   WUWT:  oh little sensor: why did you stop reporting the temperature after 1947 UTC?

[UPDATE: For a look at the USC station see this WUWT post. -Anthony]

Quick flashback 5-days ago:  USA Today / AP:  California’s ‘invisible summer’ slips away and the obligatory image of the hooded sweatshirt jogger…

LOS ANGELES — No need to root around the closet for sweaters and jackets: Californians never really put them away this year.

“The invisible summer, seamless from spring to fall,” said Bill Patzert, a scientist at NASA‘s Jet Propulsion Laboratory who studies the role of oceans in the global climate.

In Los Angeles, the last full day of summer passed Tuesday under the gloom of a deep marine layer — the low clouds and fog that put a damper on many beach excursions and made a dip in the surf bracing.

“The ocean never warmed,” Patzert said.

As if on cue, the beginning of fall heralds a brief but impressive heat wave with temperatures well above 100F in locations that saw a below-average, somewhat gloomy summer 2010.

Today:  USA Today / AP reports:  Scorching heat raises wildfire fears in California

LOS ANGELES (AP) — It’s been a scorching start for fall in California and it only looks to be getting hotter.

Summer-like temperatures were expected through Monday, with downtown Los Angeles predicted to reach a high of 107 degrees. That would break a record for the day of 106 degrees that was set in 1963.

Comment ideas:  how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen?  Please forget everything about the article 5-days ago and focus on today’s record heat.

From NASA’s Tale of Two Sites, complimenting Anthony’s post above:

“The move from downtown Los Angeles to USC in 1999 has caused a major hiccup in our local climate history,” said Patzert. “Suddenly, Los Angeles became dryer and cooler, and we were denied a record rain year in 2004-2005. The magnitude of change reflected in our study strongly suggests this relocation will bias long-term climatic studies.”

You don’t say?

Before and After (looks like a nice swimming pool could be inside that fancy fence)

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DrDavid

Maybe they just found Trenberth’s missing energy…

Curt

Yeah, it was 90F at 7:30 this morning as I drove to work… My wife was trying to get my daughter to take a sweater to school with her; I did convince her to give up.
This type of early fall heat wave happens almost every year in the California coastal cities, as the inland valleys and deserts no longer heat up enough to suck in cool ocean air (which makes the wind turbine generators that depend on these thermal winds useless in this type of heat wave).
Possibly “global warming” makes the temperatures now a degree or so hotter than they otherwise would be; I’m sure that urbanization effects drive it up even more. But I don’t see any way you can blame the existence of such a heat wave on “global climate disruption” given their very regular appearance at this time of year in California.

Matt

Downtown LA likely to shatter their all-time record high temp today (112 set in 1990). Even more impressive because the station is closer to the ocean now than it used to be I believe.
But…this heat wave doesn’t hold a candle to late Sept 1963 I believe (either 62 or 63)…3 straight days of 100 at both LAX and CQT (Downtown LA). That is NOT easy to do. Even in this powder keg pattern, we were only able to muster 1 day of both of them in the 100s (today).
I’m sure this will get pegged on AGW. Unfortunately, this is just a flip in the EPO, coupled with a Santa Ana. Almost identical pattern to the 1960s heat wave.

Vince Causey

“That would break a record for the day of 106 degrees that was set in 1963.”
1963? Wasn’t that during the cooling scare?

Enneagram

What happened with UNISYS ‘ SST? The sea in flames, just preparing to go to Cancun?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.html

Henry chance

No rain in a month? Low humidity allows this temp increase.
They should have a couple record highs every year.

R. de Haan

It’s the wind transporting hot air from the desert planes.
As soon as the wind shifts, the heat is over.

R. Gates

Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…

juanslayton

Every year we get fall santanas and every year the press responds like it’s never happened before.
The weather you’re complaining of
While mopping off your brow
Is what you wished for when you had
The kind you wish for now.
–Irene Warsaw

Ken G

Ryan,
Didn’t you get the memo? Climate models no longer matter. What matters is controlling the argument. It’s ‘global climate disruption’ now. Therefore, no matter what happens, it is consistent with the new terminology, regardless of what the models say.
[ryan: i did get a copy of czar holdren’s new talking points on climate, but alas, i left them beneath my copy of Ecoscience.]

juanslayton

R. de Haan:
You mean from Edwards AFB?

David Walton

Here are the rules: If it is heat and high temps, it is climate. If it is cool, it is weather, or (more adventurously) the a result of “climate change”. If there is an increase in storm activity, it is climate, if there is an absense of hurricanes, well, gee, what is up with that? Must be global warming too.
(“Global warming” now, officially “climate disruptions”.) You don’t need a climate scientist to know which way the wind blows.

Green Sand

It doesn’t look as though it is coming off the ocean.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Djozar

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.”
— Robert A. Heinlein

jae

“how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen? ”
Well, it’s like this: Trenberth’s missing heat has been hiding just West of LA at the bottom of the ocean. All of a sudden, it has washed onshore and provided this heat wave!

Mike P

This is nothing unusual. In the summer there is a high about 400 miles off of point conception and a low in the Arizona region. When it gets hot inland the sea air gets pulled into the coastal areas, keeping them cool while the deserts suffer. From September through about April the High and Low can switch places for a few days at a time. Then the hot air from the desert blows into the coast and L.A. gets really hot.
No catastrophy. This is how it works every single year. Southern California has got to have the most simple and predictable climate in the world.

899

In a word: HYPE.
It’s been cool for a LONG time, but then suddenly there’s a warm spell.
They –the MSM– talked (T-A-L-K-E-D) about the long cool spell, but then SCREAMED the short warm spell.
HYPE.
The very same thing happens here in Washington, on the west side of the Cascades, especially in the Puget Sound area.
Mostly it’s rather balmy here, what with a sound-moderated temperature of 60-70º F.
Sure, it’s rainy, cloudy, and cool much of the time, but so what?
So what?!?!?!
Let the temp get above 80º and the idiot AGW faction goes completely berserk with prognostications of doom and gloom!
OH-MY-GAWD-WE’RE-ALL-GONNA-DIEEEEEEEEE!!!!
Goodness! The local environmental clean-up crews have their work cutout for them after all that foaming at the mouth spills over onto the pavement and sidewalks and creates a biohazard!
Now, THAT is hype which matches the HYPE of which it describes! :o)

Bruce Cobb

“It wasn’t the coolest summer ever, that’s for sure, but in a warming world, it was a little gift from the weather gods,” Patzert said.
Ah, yes, the “weather gods” bring cool weather, which is Good, while Evil man creates the “warming world”, which is Bad.
These Warmist “scientists” are so predictable.

Lets hear it for high pressure that pushes the jet north of Calgary. We are not the lest bit surprised at having chinooks to bring summer like temperatures to our fall. We look forward to them. (and that is climate, i.e. weather you can sometimes count on) With La Niña doing its thing, we know the jet will sag and those balmy arctic winds will soon be on us, again. That is called climate too. (Okay, most people refer to it as winter.)

Ryan, he obviously missed the memo. Climate change makes the climate less predictable. that much we can predict, err..
since regional prediction is in its infancy it makes little sense to even suggest that a regional extreme event ( increase in frequency or severity) is a likely consequence.
at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time.

gary gulrud

Here in central MN we’ve had unseasonalby cool and wet weather in Sept.
Yesterday, on one of the first nice days, I found myself, again explaining the PDO(first characterized in 1996), blocking events, yada yada, as my familiars brought up “Climate Change” and our state unexpectedly leading the nation in tornados this year.
My denialism was hard in the face of AGW, suddenly, through no effort I can recall, it is now presumed against ‘strong evidence and scientific consensus thatClimate Change is real and potentially catastrophic.
Somebody slap a ‘Kick me’ sign on my back?

Jason Bair

Up to 113F now. Man that parking lot got hot today.

Douglas Dc

How about Urban Heat Island Effect? Lots more concrete since the ’60’s
Being an old Airtanker Pilot I do not miss flying during Santa Anas
They can kill crews….

dr.bill

Steven Mosher: September 27, 2010 at 1:57 pm
{…} at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time.

Apart from the fact that they have lots of ad hoc garbage thrown into them, and lots of things missing, the problem with models is that nobody has yet found a way to incorporate the effects related to radiation and those related to thermodynamics in a compatible manner, and these effects tend to produce opposite conclusions. If you spend your time messing with MODTRAN or equivalent you arrive at one opinion. If you focus on convection, lapse rates, latent heats, etc., you arrive at a different one.
In the absence of progress on that front, we are left with an examination of what has actually happened, and as far as we can tell, despite Hansen’s efforts to make it seem otherwise, it hasn’t been much, and certainly nothing alarming.
/dr.bill

Alex Buddery

This actually goes against climate predictions. According to elementary Gaia theory Gaia is vengeful of humans and should wreak havoc for our evil ways until we start holding hands and hugging trees. This appears to be Gaia showing a sense of humour however. Maybe Gaia has a sibling or a child which is mischievous, that would certainly fit the real world data. We’ll have to go back and re-examine the raw data on Gaia’s actions.

Dave Wendt

A little thought experiment. Suppose you are a paleodendroclimatologist living at some time 3-5 hundred years in the future. Due to a proliferation of disciples of Phil Jones climatology, all records of present day climate science have been lost. To create a reconstruction of GAT for the present era, where on the globe would you go to find a selection of tree samples that would provide an accurate representation of the global climate. Strictly for the purpose of this experiment we will stipulate to the dubious notion that tree rings can actually provide a record of temperature activity.

dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.

John M

“From NASA’s Tale of Two Sites, complimenting Anthony’s post above:”
I think you meant “complementing”. Of course, if NASA were indeed to compliment Anthony, that would be news.
Heck, their brothers and sisters in NOAA can’t even bother to “acknowledge” him! 🙂

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

Today in downtown Los Angeles, the hottest temperature EVER! 113°!!
– just heard that on ABC World News with Diane Sawyer, 6:34PM EDT.
The hottest EVER? Good thing that’s only weather. Which it must be, as for once GLOBAL WARMING was not mentioned, by any of its names. Is this progress?

dr.bill

Steven Mosher: September 27, 2010 at 3:18 pm
dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.

And an ultra-specific, highly informative, cutting edge insight like “at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time” is supposed to be “interesting”? Get over yourself FFS.
/dr.bill

crosspatch

I seem to remember it was quite hot when the Oakland Hills fire broke out many years ago. October 19, 1991 was the same temperature as today, September 27, 2010.
This sort of weather is quite normal for this time of year. This is the time of year for going to the Northern California beaches.

Jimbo

R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…

REPLY:
You had better tell that to the people at the Guardian newspaper in the UK. Just browse their Climate Change section then send your advice throuth their comments section.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change
And these guys aren’t only blogging but selling news.

Grant Hillemeyer

R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…
Anthony is a weatherman, we like hearing and talking about it, just like we like to discuss climate. We didn’t originate the habit of finding weather extremes and trying to relate them to climate change but it has been used frequently over the last decade in support of the notion of AGW.
And let us face it, many people don’t research the discussions and papers about climate and often their opinions rest at least partially on how they perceive the climate through short term weather patterns. I think that the belly flop in Copenhagen and the collective yawn that ensued was largely due to the hard winter here and in Europe. If the theory of temps being closely linked to a 60 year cycle in ocean temps is true and we begin a 30 year cooling phase, global warming is going to be a very tough sell.

DesertYote

Natures Air conditioning has just gotten turned off for the year, as it always does around this time.

899

Steven Mosher says:
September 27, 2010 at 3:18 pm
dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.

Oh, I dunno about that, for he does make a very good point:
Apart from the fact that they have lots of ad hoc garbage thrown into them, and lots of things missing, the problem with models is that nobody has yet found a way to incorporate the effects related to radiation and those related to thermodynamics in a compatible manner, and these effects tend to produce opposite conclusions.
Most –if not all– computer models which I’ve looked over, don’t consider much beyond the perceived conclusions of the programmers themselves. In fact most are seriously parochial in their scope such as to exclude things which are only now being considered as having far greater affect then was previously thought.
You should step back a bit and reconsider your condemnation.

Jimbo
Glenn

“oh little sensor: why did you stop reporting the temperature after 1947 UTC?”
Out of all the news reporting 113F I’m left wondering where in “downtown LA” this was recorded and if official. Seems though to originate with one Stuart Seto:
“Downtown hit 113 degrees for a few minutes at about 12:15 p.m., breaking the old all-time record of 112 degrees set on June 26, 1990, said Stuart Seto, a weather specialist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard.”
http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/09/27/2094749/downtown-los-angeles-bakes-at.html#ixzz10mFe2rfW

R. Gates

Grant Hillemeyer says:
September 27, 2010 at 4:15 pm
If the theory of temps being closely linked to a 60 year cycle in ocean temps is true and we begin a 30 year cooling phase, global warming is going to be a very tough sell.
_______
Here are some possibilities:
1) All the current warming and related effects caused by natural ocean cycles or solar cycle or some combination thereof, but are 100% non-anthropogenic.
2) Some of the current global warming is related to natural cycles, and some is related to anthropogenic causes.
3) All the current warming is related to anthropogenic causes.
_______
Only one of these answers can be correct FOR ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD and any given location on earth. S0 pick your time period, (1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 year, 30 years etc.) and pick your location on Earth, and one (and only one) of the statements above will absolutely be true. For example, in downtown LA, you can be certain that #2 is always true at all times because the the UHI effect. Anthropogenic warming of planet in and around cities is always happening, and certainly natural cycles also effect the climate in and around LA. #2 is also true for all major cities around the planet, therefore we know that #2 is true over a certain portion of the planet all the time.

Glenn

Screenshot saving time?
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?table=1&wfo=lox&sid=KCQT
Weather Conditions for:
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA (KCQT)
Elev: 184 ft; Latitude: 34.01667; Longitude: -118.28333
27 Sep 1:47 pm
27 Sep 12:47 pm 112
27 Sep 11:47 am 111
27 Sep 10:47 am 107
27 Sep 9:47 am 101
then there’s this page:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KCQT.html
Current Weather Conditions:
LOS ANGELES USC CAMPUS, CA, United States
(KCQT) 34-02N 118-17W
4 PM (20) Sep 27 111.9 (44.4)
3 PM (19) Sep 27 111.0 (43.9)
2 PM (18) Sep 27 107.1 (41.7)
1 PM (17) Sep 27 100.9 (38.3)
Noon (16) Sep 27 93.9 (34.4)
11 AM (15) Sep 27 86.0 (30.0)
10 AM (14) Sep 27 80.1 (26.7
9 AM (13) Sep 27 77.0 (25.0)

R. Gates

Jimbo says:
September 27, 2010 at 4:14 pm
R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…
REPLY:
You had better tell that to the people at the Guardian newspaper in the UK. Just browse their Climate Change section then send your advice throuth their comments section.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change
And these guys aren’t only blogging but selling news.
______
Some AGW “warmists” and skeptics alike use the issue to sell and influence many things…from news to politcal power. In the final analysis, this pandering is all about money of course, as it always is. I have no interest in any of that. Over time, the facts (and thankfully there are facts separate from human maneuverings) will speak for themselves.

rbateman

R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
There you go again, trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip.
Weather is every bit a part of Climate. The Weather and the right to brag/complain about it belongs to all walks of life.
No computer program or model has any claim to it.
Meteorologists call the Weather, they do a darn good job of it, and for that they have our respect.
Can’t say anything nice about the GCM’s, as they are shabby predictors of Climate and even worse at calling the Weather.
Sound advice: Never send in a computer to do a WeatherMan’s job.

Patrick Davis

Yes, we’re getting this reported here in the Australian MSM too.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/los-angeles-bakes-in-record-heatwave-20100928-15uji.html
And we’re getting the ETS mantra repeated out on news channels, Australia being urged to copy New Zealand.

carlos parise

First of all sorry if my english is not yhe best,im from argentina.
Anthony, i think that it is urgent that you talk with the people of NOAA and tell them to correct the error, the temperature at Los Angeles reached 112 and not 113 like they say. I just read on Jesse Ferrell blog that todays high in Los Angeles was
111.9 at 12:50 am. Also is important to say that this supposed record is not serious..they say scince 1877…but the cuestion is: how many times did they moved the weaher observatory in downtown LA ????? So if they talk of a record scince 1877 they have to talk about a place that has data scince 1877 in the same exact place..and this is NOT the case of downtown LA !!!!!

Steve of Fullerton

Anthony
Checkout the CAISO web site. During this heat event in So Cal the wind farms were all but ineffective.

D. Patterson

Don’t you just love what they’ve done with the siting of the weather instrumentation? You really have to congratulate them on the fine job of cementing that nice and large expanse of concrete all around the thermal instruments, where the instruments can bathe in waves of heat coming off of the concrete surfaces. It was also a fine extra touch to at least partially enclose the instruments with all of those nearby trees and hedges to minimize the escape of the heat generated by the concrete and black painted iron railings. Nothing like the green effect of the landscaping to improve upon the previous siting subjected to the wide open spaces of concrete and asphalt.
Wouldn’t it be great to see some old 1877-1900 photographs of the concrete and asphalt surrounding the weather instruments in Los Angeles back in the olden days?

jae

“dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.”
Mosher, you are alienating your base. Perhaps your ego has begun to overwhelm your meager existence! What IS your point here?

MattN

Well, summer has just departed here in central NC. Mid 70s all week. Calling for upper 40s at night here this weekend…yum….

Jae:
My point is this. Its a waste of words to say the inputs are garbage. And it’s counter productive. details. references. or we can all sit here and slap each other on the back and say ” ya the inputs are garbage” that’s a most convincing argument. NOT.
Now, I know which inputs I would question. In precise detail. And I know what to read to see what they plan for Ar5.
I don’t have a “base” to worry about. Just a set of principles: show me the data. show me the code. Cite your source. make specific charges. back them up. let the chips fall where they may.

Stilgar

“how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen?”
Well if you have enough “models” that “show/predict” temperature changes from 1 to 10 degrees and precipitation changes from between dry and wet, then regardless of what the weather actually does, it will probably be “consistent” with the models.
In the media though, it is anything out of the norm. So cool temps when it should be hot = climate change. Warm temps when it should be getting cool = climate change.
One thing I think is funny is that all the climate rules we are told during the winter do not apply during the summer. A winter in a city is extra cold (below average) with lots of snow = local weather and it does not mean anything in regards to being inconsistant with climate change models (one event is weather and a local area can have swings, it is the global/regional temp that matters).
However you get a summer, spring or fall out of the ordinary and it is not “weather” it is climate change consistant with models.
Here is a quick guide:
Spring + hotter or cooler than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Summer + hotter or cooler than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Fall + hotter or cooler than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Winter + hotter than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Winter + cooler than average = weather and has no impact on climate change and inconsistency with model does not matter

Enneagram says:
September 27, 2010 at 12:54 pm
> What happened with UNISYS ‘ SST? The sea in flames, just preparing to go to Cancun?
> http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.html
That’s because you’re looking at the actual water temp. Water in the tropics tends to be hot. Water at the poles tends to be cold.
Note the finger of cool water along the California coast, this is likely due to upwelling, which would mean east winds blowing surface water away or sea water currents bring cold water down from the north. I believe its the reason for the cool summer in coastal California this year.
You should be looking at the anomaly map, see http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
All this has little to do with Santa Ana winds, the real cause of the hot weather. Hey, at least it’s a dry heat. 🙂