Downtown Los Angeles scorches with temperatures 110+ F … NWS Current temp at USC
[UPDATE: 2:30 PM Pacific: USC station no longer reporting?- Ryan 2:52 FIXED LINK – Anthony] WUWT: oh little sensor: why did you stop reporting the temperature after 1947 UTC?
[UPDATE: For a look at the USC station see this WUWT post. -Anthony]
Quick flashback 5-days ago: USA Today / AP: California’s ‘invisible summer’ slips away and the obligatory image of the hooded sweatshirt jogger…
LOS ANGELES — No need to root around the closet for sweaters and jackets: Californians never really put them away this year.“The invisible summer, seamless from spring to fall,” said Bill Patzert, a scientist at NASA‘s Jet Propulsion Laboratory who studies the role of oceans in the global climate.
In Los Angeles, the last full day of summer passed Tuesday under the gloom of a deep marine layer — the low clouds and fog that put a damper on many beach excursions and made a dip in the surf bracing.
“The ocean never warmed,” Patzert said.
As if on cue, the beginning of fall heralds a brief but impressive heat wave with temperatures well above 100F in locations that saw a below-average, somewhat gloomy summer 2010.
Today: USA Today / AP reports: Scorching heat raises wildfire fears in California
LOS ANGELES (AP) — It’s been a scorching start for fall in California and it only looks to be getting hotter.Summer-like temperatures were expected through Monday, with downtown Los Angeles predicted to reach a high of 107 degrees. That would break a record for the day of 106 degrees that was set in 1963.
Comment ideas: how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen? Please forget everything about the article 5-days ago and focus on today’s record heat.
From NASA’s Tale of Two Sites, complimenting Anthony’s post above:
“The move from downtown Los Angeles to USC in 1999 has caused a major hiccup in our local climate history,” said Patzert. “Suddenly, Los Angeles became dryer and cooler, and we were denied a record rain year in 2004-2005. The magnitude of change reflected in our study strongly suggests this relocation will bias long-term climatic studies.”
You don’t say?
Before and After (looks like a nice swimming pool could be inside that fancy fence)
Maybe they just found Trenberth’s missing energy…
Yeah, it was 90F at 7:30 this morning as I drove to work… My wife was trying to get my daughter to take a sweater to school with her; I did convince her to give up.
This type of early fall heat wave happens almost every year in the California coastal cities, as the inland valleys and deserts no longer heat up enough to suck in cool ocean air (which makes the wind turbine generators that depend on these thermal winds useless in this type of heat wave).
Possibly “global warming” makes the temperatures now a degree or so hotter than they otherwise would be; I’m sure that urbanization effects drive it up even more. But I don’t see any way you can blame the existence of such a heat wave on “global climate disruption” given their very regular appearance at this time of year in California.
Downtown LA likely to shatter their all-time record high temp today (112 set in 1990). Even more impressive because the station is closer to the ocean now than it used to be I believe.
But…this heat wave doesn’t hold a candle to late Sept 1963 I believe (either 62 or 63)…3 straight days of 100 at both LAX and CQT (Downtown LA). That is NOT easy to do. Even in this powder keg pattern, we were only able to muster 1 day of both of them in the 100s (today).
I’m sure this will get pegged on AGW. Unfortunately, this is just a flip in the EPO, coupled with a Santa Ana. Almost identical pattern to the 1960s heat wave.
“That would break a record for the day of 106 degrees that was set in 1963.”
1963? Wasn’t that during the cooling scare?
What happened with UNISYS ‘ SST? The sea in flames, just preparing to go to Cancun?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.html
No rain in a month? Low humidity allows this temp increase.
They should have a couple record highs every year.
It’s the wind transporting hot air from the desert planes.
As soon as the wind shifts, the heat is over.
Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…
Every year we get fall santanas and every year the press responds like it’s never happened before.
The weather you’re complaining of
While mopping off your brow
Is what you wished for when you had
The kind you wish for now.
–Irene Warsaw
Ryan,
Didn’t you get the memo? Climate models no longer matter. What matters is controlling the argument. It’s ‘global climate disruption’ now. Therefore, no matter what happens, it is consistent with the new terminology, regardless of what the models say.
[ryan: i did get a copy of czar holdren’s new talking points on climate, but alas, i left them beneath my copy of Ecoscience.]
R. de Haan:
You mean from Edwards AFB?
Here are the rules: If it is heat and high temps, it is climate. If it is cool, it is weather, or (more adventurously) the a result of “climate change”. If there is an increase in storm activity, it is climate, if there is an absense of hurricanes, well, gee, what is up with that? Must be global warming too.
(“Global warming” now, officially “climate disruptions”.) You don’t need a climate scientist to know which way the wind blows.
It doesn’t look as though it is coming off the ocean.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.”
— Robert A. Heinlein
“how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen? ”
Well, it’s like this: Trenberth’s missing heat has been hiding just West of LA at the bottom of the ocean. All of a sudden, it has washed onshore and provided this heat wave!
This is nothing unusual. In the summer there is a high about 400 miles off of point conception and a low in the Arizona region. When it gets hot inland the sea air gets pulled into the coastal areas, keeping them cool while the deserts suffer. From September through about April the High and Low can switch places for a few days at a time. Then the hot air from the desert blows into the coast and L.A. gets really hot.
No catastrophy. This is how it works every single year. Southern California has got to have the most simple and predictable climate in the world.
In a word: HYPE.
It’s been cool for a LONG time, but then suddenly there’s a warm spell.
They –the MSM– talked (T-A-L-K-E-D) about the long cool spell, but then SCREAMED the short warm spell.
HYPE.
The very same thing happens here in Washington, on the west side of the Cascades, especially in the Puget Sound area.
Mostly it’s rather balmy here, what with a sound-moderated temperature of 60-70º F.
Sure, it’s rainy, cloudy, and cool much of the time, but so what?
So what?!?!?!
Let the temp get above 80º and the idiot AGW faction goes completely berserk with prognostications of doom and gloom!
OH-MY-GAWD-WE’RE-ALL-GONNA-DIEEEEEEEEE!!!!
Goodness! The local environmental clean-up crews have their work cutout for them after all that foaming at the mouth spills over onto the pavement and sidewalks and creates a biohazard!
Now, THAT is hype which matches the HYPE of which it describes! :o)
“It wasn’t the coolest summer ever, that’s for sure, but in a warming world, it was a little gift from the weather gods,” Patzert said.
Ah, yes, the “weather gods” bring cool weather, which is Good, while Evil man creates the “warming world”, which is Bad.
These Warmist “scientists” are so predictable.
Lets hear it for high pressure that pushes the jet north of Calgary. We are not the lest bit surprised at having chinooks to bring summer like temperatures to our fall. We look forward to them. (and that is climate, i.e. weather you can sometimes count on) With La Niña doing its thing, we know the jet will sag and those balmy arctic winds will soon be on us, again. That is called climate too. (Okay, most people refer to it as winter.)
Ryan, he obviously missed the memo. Climate change makes the climate less predictable. that much we can predict, err..
since regional prediction is in its infancy it makes little sense to even suggest that a regional extreme event ( increase in frequency or severity) is a likely consequence.
at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time.
Here in central MN we’ve had unseasonalby cool and wet weather in Sept.
Yesterday, on one of the first nice days, I found myself, again explaining the PDO(first characterized in 1996), blocking events, yada yada, as my familiars brought up “Climate Change” and our state unexpectedly leading the nation in tornados this year.
My denialism was hard in the face of AGW, suddenly, through no effort I can recall, it is now presumed against ‘strong evidence and scientific consensus thatClimate Change is real and potentially catastrophic.
Somebody slap a ‘Kick me’ sign on my back?
Up to 113F now. Man that parking lot got hot today.
How about Urban Heat Island Effect? Lots more concrete since the ’60’s
Being an old Airtanker Pilot I do not miss flying during Santa Anas
They can kill crews….
Apart from the fact that they have lots of ad hoc garbage thrown into them, and lots of things missing, the problem with models is that nobody has yet found a way to incorporate the effects related to radiation and those related to thermodynamics in a compatible manner, and these effects tend to produce opposite conclusions. If you spend your time messing with MODTRAN or equivalent you arrive at one opinion. If you focus on convection, lapse rates, latent heats, etc., you arrive at a different one.
In the absence of progress on that front, we are left with an examination of what has actually happened, and as far as we can tell, despite Hansen’s efforts to make it seem otherwise, it hasn’t been much, and certainly nothing alarming.
/dr.bill
This actually goes against climate predictions. According to elementary Gaia theory Gaia is vengeful of humans and should wreak havoc for our evil ways until we start holding hands and hugging trees. This appears to be Gaia showing a sense of humour however. Maybe Gaia has a sibling or a child which is mischievous, that would certainly fit the real world data. We’ll have to go back and re-examine the raw data on Gaia’s actions.
A little thought experiment. Suppose you are a paleodendroclimatologist living at some time 3-5 hundred years in the future. Due to a proliferation of disciples of Phil Jones climatology, all records of present day climate science have been lost. To create a reconstruction of GAT for the present era, where on the globe would you go to find a selection of tree samples that would provide an accurate representation of the global climate. Strictly for the purpose of this experiment we will stipulate to the dubious notion that tree rings can actually provide a record of temperature activity.
dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.
“From NASA’s Tale of Two Sites, complimenting Anthony’s post above:”
I think you meant “complementing”. Of course, if NASA were indeed to compliment Anthony, that would be news.
Heck, their brothers and sisters in NOAA can’t even bother to “acknowledge” him! 🙂
Today in downtown Los Angeles, the hottest temperature EVER! 113°!!
– just heard that on ABC World News with Diane Sawyer, 6:34PM EDT.
The hottest EVER? Good thing that’s only weather. Which it must be, as for once GLOBAL WARMING was not mentioned, by any of its names. Is this progress?
And an ultra-specific, highly informative, cutting edge insight like “at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time” is supposed to be “interesting”? Get over yourself FFS.
/dr.bill
I seem to remember it was quite hot when the Oakland Hills fire broke out many years ago. October 19, 1991 was the same temperature as today, September 27, 2010.
This sort of weather is quite normal for this time of year. This is the time of year for going to the Northern California beaches.
REPLY:
You had better tell that to the people at the Guardian newspaper in the UK. Just browse their Climate Change section then send your advice throuth their comments section.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change
And these guys aren’t only blogging but selling news.
R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…
Anthony is a weatherman, we like hearing and talking about it, just like we like to discuss climate. We didn’t originate the habit of finding weather extremes and trying to relate them to climate change but it has been used frequently over the last decade in support of the notion of AGW.
And let us face it, many people don’t research the discussions and papers about climate and often their opinions rest at least partially on how they perceive the climate through short term weather patterns. I think that the belly flop in Copenhagen and the collective yawn that ensued was largely due to the hard winter here and in Europe. If the theory of temps being closely linked to a 60 year cycle in ocean temps is true and we begin a 30 year cooling phase, global warming is going to be a very tough sell.
Natures Air conditioning has just gotten turned off for the year, as it always does around this time.
Steven Mosher says:
September 27, 2010 at 3:18 pm
dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.
Oh, I dunno about that, for he does make a very good point:
Apart from the fact that they have lots of ad hoc garbage thrown into them, and lots of things missing, the problem with models is that nobody has yet found a way to incorporate the effects related to radiation and those related to thermodynamics in a compatible manner, and these effects tend to produce opposite conclusions.
Most –if not all– computer models which I’ve looked over, don’t consider much beyond the perceived conclusions of the programmers themselves. In fact most are seriously parochial in their scope such as to exclude things which are only now being considered as having far greater affect then was previously thought.
You should step back a bit and reconsider your condemnation.
Sorry, the correct link for Richard Black V Joe Romm is:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/09/something_new_and_not_altogeth.html
“oh little sensor: why did you stop reporting the temperature after 1947 UTC?”
Out of all the news reporting 113F I’m left wondering where in “downtown LA” this was recorded and if official. Seems though to originate with one Stuart Seto:
“Downtown hit 113 degrees for a few minutes at about 12:15 p.m., breaking the old all-time record of 112 degrees set on June 26, 1990, said Stuart Seto, a weather specialist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard.”
http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/09/27/2094749/downtown-los-angeles-bakes-at.html#ixzz10mFe2rfW
Grant Hillemeyer says:
September 27, 2010 at 4:15 pm
If the theory of temps being closely linked to a 60 year cycle in ocean temps is true and we begin a 30 year cooling phase, global warming is going to be a very tough sell.
_______
Here are some possibilities:
1) All the current warming and related effects caused by natural ocean cycles or solar cycle or some combination thereof, but are 100% non-anthropogenic.
2) Some of the current global warming is related to natural cycles, and some is related to anthropogenic causes.
3) All the current warming is related to anthropogenic causes.
_______
Only one of these answers can be correct FOR ANY GIVEN TIME PERIOD and any given location on earth. S0 pick your time period, (1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 year, 30 years etc.) and pick your location on Earth, and one (and only one) of the statements above will absolutely be true. For example, in downtown LA, you can be certain that #2 is always true at all times because the the UHI effect. Anthropogenic warming of planet in and around cities is always happening, and certainly natural cycles also effect the climate in and around LA. #2 is also true for all major cities around the planet, therefore we know that #2 is true over a certain portion of the planet all the time.
Screenshot saving time?
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?table=1&wfo=lox&sid=KCQT
Weather Conditions for:
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA (KCQT)
Elev: 184 ft; Latitude: 34.01667; Longitude: -118.28333
27 Sep 1:47 pm
27 Sep 12:47 pm 112
27 Sep 11:47 am 111
27 Sep 10:47 am 107
27 Sep 9:47 am 101
then there’s this page:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KCQT.html
Current Weather Conditions:
LOS ANGELES USC CAMPUS, CA, United States
(KCQT) 34-02N 118-17W
4 PM (20) Sep 27 111.9 (44.4)
3 PM (19) Sep 27 111.0 (43.9)
2 PM (18) Sep 27 107.1 (41.7)
1 PM (17) Sep 27 100.9 (38.3)
Noon (16) Sep 27 93.9 (34.4)
11 AM (15) Sep 27 86.0 (30.0)
10 AM (14) Sep 27 80.1 (26.7
9 AM (13) Sep 27 77.0 (25.0)
Jimbo says:
September 27, 2010 at 4:14 pm
R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Any speculation or attempt to connect the weather over one summer in one region of the world to AGW is folly, and misses the bigger picture. Neither snow in Florida nor a Russian heat wave nor a cold California can prove or disprove anything about a change in the climate– unless those things occur more and more frequently or less frequently over a longer time period. But it makes for interesting blogging I suppose…
REPLY:
You had better tell that to the people at the Guardian newspaper in the UK. Just browse their Climate Change section then send your advice throuth their comments section.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change
And these guys aren’t only blogging but selling news.
______
Some AGW “warmists” and skeptics alike use the issue to sell and influence many things…from news to politcal power. In the final analysis, this pandering is all about money of course, as it always is. I have no interest in any of that. Over time, the facts (and thankfully there are facts separate from human maneuverings) will speak for themselves.
R. Gates says:
September 27, 2010 at 1:10 pm
There you go again, trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip.
Weather is every bit a part of Climate. The Weather and the right to brag/complain about it belongs to all walks of life.
No computer program or model has any claim to it.
Meteorologists call the Weather, they do a darn good job of it, and for that they have our respect.
Can’t say anything nice about the GCM’s, as they are shabby predictors of Climate and even worse at calling the Weather.
Sound advice: Never send in a computer to do a WeatherMan’s job.
Yes, we’re getting this reported here in the Australian MSM too.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/los-angeles-bakes-in-record-heatwave-20100928-15uji.html
And we’re getting the ETS mantra repeated out on news channels, Australia being urged to copy New Zealand.
First of all sorry if my english is not yhe best,im from argentina.
Anthony, i think that it is urgent that you talk with the people of NOAA and tell them to correct the error, the temperature at Los Angeles reached 112 and not 113 like they say. I just read on Jesse Ferrell blog that todays high in Los Angeles was
111.9 at 12:50 am. Also is important to say that this supposed record is not serious..they say scince 1877…but the cuestion is: how many times did they moved the weaher observatory in downtown LA ????? So if they talk of a record scince 1877 they have to talk about a place that has data scince 1877 in the same exact place..and this is NOT the case of downtown LA !!!!!
Anthony
Checkout the CAISO web site. During this heat event in So Cal the wind farms were all but ineffective.
Don’t you just love what they’ve done with the siting of the weather instrumentation? You really have to congratulate them on the fine job of cementing that nice and large expanse of concrete all around the thermal instruments, where the instruments can bathe in waves of heat coming off of the concrete surfaces. It was also a fine extra touch to at least partially enclose the instruments with all of those nearby trees and hedges to minimize the escape of the heat generated by the concrete and black painted iron railings. Nothing like the green effect of the landscaping to improve upon the previous siting subjected to the wide open spaces of concrete and asphalt.
Wouldn’t it be great to see some old 1877-1900 photographs of the concrete and asphalt surrounding the weather instruments in Los Angeles back in the olden days?
“dr bill.
nice generalized meaningless off target waste of words. When was the last time you spent any real time looking at the inputs, looking at the code, reading the papers.
Weak skepticism is a bore.”
Mosher, you are alienating your base. Perhaps your ego has begun to overwhelm your meager existence! What IS your point here?
Well, summer has just departed here in central NC. Mid 70s all week. Calling for upper 40s at night here this weekend…yum….
Jae:
My point is this. Its a waste of words to say the inputs are garbage. And it’s counter productive. details. references. or we can all sit here and slap each other on the back and say ” ya the inputs are garbage” that’s a most convincing argument. NOT.
Now, I know which inputs I would question. In precise detail. And I know what to read to see what they plan for Ar5.
I don’t have a “base” to worry about. Just a set of principles: show me the data. show me the code. Cite your source. make specific charges. back them up. let the chips fall where they may.
“how can these extreme temperatures be related to global warming / climate change and “consistent” with what climate models “have shown/predicted” would happen?”
Well if you have enough “models” that “show/predict” temperature changes from 1 to 10 degrees and precipitation changes from between dry and wet, then regardless of what the weather actually does, it will probably be “consistent” with the models.
In the media though, it is anything out of the norm. So cool temps when it should be hot = climate change. Warm temps when it should be getting cool = climate change.
One thing I think is funny is that all the climate rules we are told during the winter do not apply during the summer. A winter in a city is extra cold (below average) with lots of snow = local weather and it does not mean anything in regards to being inconsistant with climate change models (one event is weather and a local area can have swings, it is the global/regional temp that matters).
However you get a summer, spring or fall out of the ordinary and it is not “weather” it is climate change consistant with models.
Here is a quick guide:
Spring + hotter or cooler than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Summer + hotter or cooler than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Fall + hotter or cooler than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Winter + hotter than average = caused by climate change or consistent with models
Winter + cooler than average = weather and has no impact on climate change and inconsistency with model does not matter
Enneagram says:
September 27, 2010 at 12:54 pm
> What happened with UNISYS ‘ SST? The sea in flames, just preparing to go to Cancun?
> http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.html
That’s because you’re looking at the actual water temp. Water in the tropics tends to be hot. Water at the poles tends to be cold.
Note the finger of cool water along the California coast, this is likely due to upwelling, which would mean east winds blowing surface water away or sea water currents bring cold water down from the north. I believe its the reason for the cool summer in coastal California this year.
You should be looking at the anomaly map, see http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
All this has little to do with Santa Ana winds, the real cause of the hot weather. Hey, at least it’s a dry heat. 🙂
899:
defending weak skepticism is even more boring.
“Most –if not all– computer models which I’ve looked over, don’t consider much beyond the perceived conclusions of the programmers themselves. In fact most are seriously parochial in their scope such as to exclude things which are only now being considered as having far greater affect then was previously thought.
You should step back a bit and reconsider your condemnation.”
1. Most if not all of the computer models I have worked with, built, and tested considered things beyond the perceived conclusions of the programmers themselves.
Gosh, what a fun fact filled debate. Your defense ( appeal to personal experience) is weaker than the argument being offered. And I’ll do you one better, the programs I worked on were way more complicated, way more more important than anything you ever came close to.
Do you see how silly the appeal to personal experience gets. I’m suggesting that Dr. Bill and the rest of you arm chair folks get off your duffs and find some real specific issues.
2. Limited scope is a good thing, provided the results are presented with the appropriate caveats.
Gosh we just had an argument about nothing at all. what a bore.
crosspatch says:
September 27, 2010 at 4:03 pm
I seem to remember it was quite hot when the Oakland Hills fire broke out many years ago. October 19, 1991 was the same temperature as today, September 27, 2010.
That one was ugly. Real ugly-with the wind and smoke you couldn’t do a decent job with retardant-After that fire season, I went home and cut down every Eucalyptus (Australian gasoline trees) on mine and my in-laws property.
The last record high measured temperature in downtown Los Angeles was 112 degrees in 1990 versus 113 degrees today. The difference in the number of huge 50 story plus tall high rise buildings, massive parking structures and larger and wider freeways is astounding. A perfect example the UHI effect at work.
rbateman says: September 27, 2010 at 5:24 pm
“Sound advice: Never send in a computer to do a WeatherMan’s job.”
When the Earth has as few variables as a chessboard has pieces, then a computer model might be able to predict the future.
UHI has an upper limit. It is exposed when the climate fails to warm.
It works exaclty like a natural air inversion, which also has an upper limit set by the prevailing climate.
All are subject to the laws of diminishing returns. The Earth’s climate does as it pleases, and is not intimidated or held to agendas. If it decides to run colder, it will do just that, despite anything we are doing. UHI exists in cities. Cities are not farms, where the food to feed the people in the cities is grown. So, in effect, the rural climate sets an upper limit on the size of cities and their asphalt/concrete jungle, just like it did to the Maya and others.
The lack of summer in LA and other places in the Pacific Gateway to climactic progression should give pause, not the fall weather pattern that runs like a Swiss watch.
In contrast to the assertion of some that weather is not climate, let me remind them that certain weather areas on the Planet are forebears of changes that work thier way downwind…hanging around for decades to come.
Andrew30 says:
September 27, 2010 at 9:05 pm
I doubt it. Training a computer to think has so far befuddled the best minds in Software.
True, it can outcrunch numbers, but it cannot discern what they mean. For that, you need babysitters.
“Douglas Dc says:
That one was ugly. Real ugly-with the wind and smoke you couldn’t do a decent job with retardant-After that fire season, I went home and cut down every Eucalyptus (Australian gasoline trees) on mine and my in-laws property.”
Even on our own property, if we did this in Australia (And New Zealand with it’s native trees) you would go to jail and/or be heavily fined, regardless if the act actually would save lives and property.
Send an e-mail to all your local TV stations’ meteorologists about how the USC station doesn’t meet the NOAA guidelines at all. It should be a class 4 or 5.
Tell them about the surfacestations.org site too. Hopefully some of them will look into it.
I asked Rick Lantz (KTVB Channel 7, Boise, ID) if he was satisfied that the system which provides data he relies on for his job is only 2% accurate and 69% is either class 4 or 5. I copied and pasted the class ratings from the surface stations site, included its URL and the link to the how not to measure temperature page for the USC site.
Mosher, some specifics:
Specific garbage in: aerosols,
Specific missing element: clouds.
Specific models with such problems: useless.
Despite all the blah, blah, blah, you somehow failed to “notice” my main point, which is that radiation and thermodynamics don’t fit well together in any of the models, so there is no purpose served by going into obsessive detail about micron-sized pinpricks when there are barn-door-sized holes being ignored.
You also accomplish nothing by throwing insults at me. That doesn’t distract anyone. It just makes you look weak, and makes you look like someone whose agenda just got stepped on. If anyone has the time to sit on their duff in an armchair and pontificate, that would appear to be you. You certainly seem to spend your “so-called life” doing little but roaming the blogs, while other people, including myself, are normally busy dragging their asses off to work.
Silly tw_t. (and no, that’s not a missing “i”)
/dr.bill
Don’t know where to post this observation, I’ll try it here…
I had a forecast for hurricanes that was dependent upon the charge / discharge cycles of the MHD or homopolar generator effects on the earth.
Charges build up as the outer planets come up to a heliocentric conjunction with the earth, which pushes the jet streams toward the poles, when maintained there due to multiple conjunctions like we just had with Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune, with Mercury and Venus added in the mix this year.
The areas between the polar jets and the equatorial jets fills with air mass with a neutral charge and little moisture, as a result of the blending of the ion charge differences in the recent past precipitation.
Normally with a conjunction with a single outer planet there is a charge increase then a sudden decrease of pole to equator charge that produces surges in rapid condensation on the discharge side of the process, increases the amount of severe weather during that time period.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+48+-update+3600
In this link to a 48 hour loop (66meg a bit slow loading) it is easy to see the deionized air mass being absorbed as the polar and equatorial jets converge again in the mid-latitudes, as we come past the Jupiter / Uranus synod focus of solar wind ion flux as the Coronal holes that poured out the magnetic fields close and rotate away from the earth.
Watch as the dim orange dry areas just fade away as polar and equatorial air masses directly interact over New England and the eastern sea board, with regard to the closing speed of their interactions.
On the west coast the squishing of the dry pale orange air mass by the surge of polar air mass (that has come down in the last four days), has driven the Santa Ana winds out toward the west giving LA the heat spell reported as it often does by this same mechanism in the fall.
Irving Krick used to forecast weather by looking for repeating patterns under similar circumstance, when I had a couple of phone conversations with him right after he and his wife were attacked at home, He was surprised to find that the lunar declinational tides, could explain a lot of the best pattern repeats he had found over the years. Following is a link to a book about his life and times;
http://www.weathersage.com/texts/boesen/
Steven Mosher.
I light of the real science that has been coming to light since the threat of condemnation has been eased, by the choke hold failing to maintain its grip since the fortuitous release of the Emails from East Anglia. I fail to understand how you can not comprehend the enormous gulf between real science, the real world and the realm of cloistered and protected AGW pretend scientists.
Perhaps you have failed to notice the sinusoidal ups and downs of our planetary weather, these undulations tend to take little notice of either our presence or the prognostications of our more celebrated luminary prophets of doom.
As we speak the sun is having a sabbatical holiday as it now and again does in a larger sinusoidal way, this is noticed by some scientists as having a rather profound input into our comfort and well-being.
The machinations of the planetary system, their alignments and harmonic interferences are slowly being deciphered and also effect our well-being and weather. It would seem that our position in our meanderings around the galaxy may also be instramental in causing change. Cycles on cycles, sines on sines, some coming and some going, but alignments occur. Cyclic temperature in ever increasing wave lengths, the big one the ice age. It cometh.
Mosh, if you want more details in a generalised comment on the failure of models to incorporate processes science ADMITS it has poor understanding of, such as cloud formation etc, then why not just ask for more details, the snark is not necessary, only invokes a similar response or worse, and nobody learns. A respectful request for more details would make your point if none was forthcoming.
Steven Mosher says:
“Ryan, he obviously missed the memo. Climate change makes the climate less predictable. that much we can predict, err..
since regional prediction is in its infancy it makes little sense to even suggest that a regional extreme event ( increase in frequency or severity) is a likely consequence.
at best the models can speak to global metrics over longish periods of time.”
I’m baffled how this relatively innocuous statement started so much controversy. Steven has already indicated the scope of the models and relevance to local minima/maxima; whats the problem? The “climate change makes the climate less predictable”? He didn’t indicate a basis for climate change, but if there were a climate change wouldn’t it be less predictable and models harder simulate effects?
Which is before and which is after?
Maybe this was an experiment using an ionospheric heater (part of HAARP work). The spike in temperature seems to extreme to be part of the normal variability.
JudyW says:
September 28, 2010 at 4:17 pm
That is like saying putting a stethoscope on your chest is the reason for your unregulated high blood pressure and all of the premature ventricular contractions showing up on your EKG.
Record heat in a parking lot. Whoda thunk.
Interesting correlations between this and previous record for LA.
The old high temp record for LA on this date was 1F cooler at 106 in 1963. That was right around the last time the pacific decadal and antlantic multi-decadal oscillations began a cooling period in phase. It was right on the leading of a plunge down a cooling cliff for US land temperature of 1F in one decade.
And the sun is abnormally quiet too. Which it wasn’t in 1963.
For our sakes anthropogenic global warming better be all it’s cracked up to be or more else we’re heading into another Little Ice Age or worse. If that happens we’ll be in panic mode in 20 years only it’ll be global cooling and it’ll be for real if the sun stays super calm for a Maunder Minimum timespan or even longer.
The PDO and AMDO and USHCN v2 comparative temp graphs are in this excellent recent WUWT article here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/26/a-must-read-european-climate-alpine-glaciers-and-arctic-ice-in-relation-to-north-atlantic-sst-record/#more-25384
I think the disruptists (see Holdren memo: no more warmists) are so anxious to get laws enacted because they realize the climate could begin cooling at any time and cool some most every year for 20 or more years and no transformation to a green global economy is going to happen in that timeframe. Every moment for them is “now or never”.
I lived in the path of the Santa Ana winds (like LA does) for 20 years. I went and checked the local forecasts and sure enough found predictions of strong Santa Anas (due to La Nina) back at least over two weeks ago. They arrived right on time and were record hot for this date.
If you’ve never stood outside in Santa Ana winds coming in off the deserts to the east it’s like standing about 6 feet in front of a 10 kilowatt shop heater with a 36 inch fan on high aimed at your face.