Hurricane Earl is quickly losing steam as it barrels northward and begins its recurvature in the middle latitudes. The main threat to New England will be a broad area of tropical storm force winds with gusts near hurricane force. Yet, the threat will be relatively brief as the transitioning storm moves into Canada.
Also see Anthony’s collection of satellite loops from yesterday’s post: Link
As an update to the 2010 Atlantic season in general, the development of four consecutive African Easterly Waves into Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston really got weather enthusiasts excited — and the public a little weary of potential US impacts. However, with Danielle and Fiona destined to be fish-storms, and Earl moving away from the US, that leaves the remnants of Gaston (now just a tropical low) as the main consideration over the next 10-days.
The very reliable ECMWF forecast model does not redevelop Gaston and sends the next wave off of Africa quickly northward. So, at least through the next 10-days, unless something develops close to home, the Atlantic looks relatively quiet especially compared to the recent burst of activity.
The seasonal forecasts all expected an above average year — we are at the letter G — with two big storms: Danielle and Earl, and another hurricane Alex as the main Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) producers of the season. Just as a thought, the expected active 2007 season had many storms (15 – through Olga), but only two, Dean and Felix, managed to produce 3/4 of the total ACE. The other storms were relatively weak, short-lived, and not particularly memorable.
I produced a plot for Roger Pielke Jr on his blog, and I have updated it through today. The current ACE is about 62 and that is about 10 days ahead of climatology in the Atlantic based upon the past records from 1950-2009. The peak of the season is September 11, so there is still half the season (at least) ahead of us.
Figure: Atlantic ACE to date (little black dots) and climatology (little red dots) based upon 1950-2009 storm records. The forecast ACE for the MetOffice (UK), NOAA, and Gray and Klotzbach (CSU) are indicated on the plot.
Joel Shore says:{September 3, 2010 at 7:23 pm}
“Tom in Florida says: Looks like Richard Holle is the only one who has made correct predictions. And they were very specific at that.
Nonsense…The National Hurricane Center forecasts have been quite accurate. It is no surprise that Earl is weakening as it gets over cooler waters and with some increasing shear. They have been forecasting that for days”
Holle predicted, way back in early July, that any tropical systems would not intensify to Cat 3 or 4 until after Aug 20th, then after Sep 3 they would not do so until Sep 20. So, our early storms were weak but both Danielle and Earl went to Cat 4, Fiona did not even make hurricane strength and Gaston has disappeared. Check the timing, he’s spot on as of now.
Thank you Dr. Maue,
Excellent article!
And thanks again Anthony (with best wishes) and moderators.
latitude says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Right now, I’m more impressed with the lack of storms forming in the Caribbean and gulf.
Typically, the Caribbean is a goldmine of heat content. This year as well. While there has been lots of “local” weather, what is missing is tropical waves. Usually, Caribbean activity is highest in June/July and October/November.
The tropical waves that provide the impetus for hurricane formation were too far south this June/July and ran into the South American coast. The waves now are generating the typical Cape Verde type storms. Waves to come in the fall remain to be seen.
The biggest problem is drawing conclusions from “limited” data. 50 years is the blink of an eye in climatic terms. We should not be surprised by our own ignorance.
Tom in Florida: Well, I applaud him for making specific predictions and we will see over the long term whether his good fortune continues to hold up. (Gaston may be making a comeback, by the way.)
@ur momisugly Scott B & @ur momisuglyAndyW
Re: Tropical, Extratropical, Subtropical etc…
You may find the “Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts” site to be informative.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
There you can find various plots that track the lifecycle of cyclonic systems (both cold core and warm core and in between) as they move from one set of characteristics to the to the other. The projected data sets are based off of the various model outputs, and the more notable storms have their actual data archived.
For example, here is Earl’s life cycle as it formed, got big, then floundered along the coast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/earl07l/fcst/archive/10090412/1.html
As you can see in this image (it’s out of that last link above), Earl’s drop in strength coincided with a large part of it’s feed system moving north of the Gulf Stream and hitting cooler water.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/earl07l/fcst/archive/10090412/1.track.png
The warmist crowd must be depressed that Earl didn’t deliver massive carnage that they could gloat about. My friends in Hatteras tell me the storm was about the strength of a typical nor’easter. So much for AGW causing more and more dangerous hurricanes.
Doctor Maue
How is 2010 developing from a ‘climate’ perspective? Any trend indicators as yet? Do you expect the second half to be much more active? These African Waves have been coming rather rapidly of late, or so it seems; perhaps I was just lulled into this frame of mind by the fairly inactive first half. Do you see anything yet that suggests continuing decline for your famous graph and (perhaps) a colder and more active (stormy) winter in the Northern Hemisphere? Thanks in advance!
PS: When do you expect your new website to open?
Some may sue NOAA for making them losing money….no kidding. Here we have a proof that correct forecastings were possible …..
Counter forecasting is easier: Just forecast the contrary than NOAA and you´ll get it!
Fact is that there still survives prejudice about the sole mention of interaction between the gravity+EM fields of Sun, moon, planets and the earth. Such a prejudice is nothing else but silly. That prejudice can not even be mentioned without being anatemized and censored. It is prejudice against astrology. One cannot have prejudices about anything because that is simply not POSITIVE SCIENCE, but post-normal and agnostic (opposed to knowledge) science.
And…..Earthquakes can also be forecasted:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/28560923/Earthquake-Planets-2
The tale of a dead “pebbles universe”, really a “Flintstones Universe”, it is obsolete, it is time to leave it for good, and don´t be ashamed of doing it.
When kids, teachers taught us that planets were round stones, deprived from any activity except for a minuscule gravity force which could not change anything at such distances. In an era of electronics and of “technology”, the only items off the web seem to be the sun and planets. Don´t you see it utterly silly?, or is it that some obscure conspiracy forbid us knowing the truth?, of course it is not, though history tells us that the “illustration” made all it could to deprive the cosmos of any connections whatsoever so as to get their goal of secularized societies, effort that persists in the present, echoed everywhere by childish “initiates” and politicians.
Let us give just and example: Do anyone of us remember the discoveries made by Linus Pauling, working with water extracted from the human plasma?; do we remember the works of Giorgio Piccardi?….Last but not least: Have we forgotten that the books of Velikovsky were forbidden as in the dark ages?, etc.etc.
A failed official science forecast of a common weather event as this hurricane can make us awake and don´t fear anymore “what the others may say about us”.
Kudos to Richard Holle!
Enneagram: Some posts are just too bizarre to respond to. Your 3 fall into that category.
By the way, I am proud to say I am prejudiced against astrology…as I am against all pseudoscientific nonsense that hasn’t shown to have any physical basis. (Or did you mean astronomy?)
Enneagram says:
September 4, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Don’t fret none, soon my great great grand mother will be shaking out her feather blanket at Europe. With time the great mountain wears down into a plain, looking back at the effects of the slow progress seems obvious once the work is done.
Australian news is reporting a death in Canada “as Tropical Storm Earl moved from the American eastern seaboard”.
The unfortunate man’s death appears to have little or nothing to do with the storm 😐
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/05/3002930.htm
The problem with crying wolf is that eventually the wolf comes, and people aren’t prepared.
If you look at the maps from 1938 and 1954 (Connie) you see both hurricanes were forecast to fade out to sea, but both hooked back northwest.
Rather riding around the edge of the high to the east, they “phased” with approaching low pressure to the west. Then you suddenly had a totally different kettle of fish. Even a weakening storm is completely different, when the eye passes just to your west.