Hurricane Earl is quickly losing steam as it barrels northward and begins its recurvature in the middle latitudes. The main threat to New England will be a broad area of tropical storm force winds with gusts near hurricane force. Yet, the threat will be relatively brief as the transitioning storm moves into Canada.
Also see Anthony’s collection of satellite loops from yesterday’s post: Link
As an update to the 2010 Atlantic season in general, the development of four consecutive African Easterly Waves into Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston really got weather enthusiasts excited — and the public a little weary of potential US impacts. However, with Danielle and Fiona destined to be fish-storms, and Earl moving away from the US, that leaves the remnants of Gaston (now just a tropical low) as the main consideration over the next 10-days.
The very reliable ECMWF forecast model does not redevelop Gaston and sends the next wave off of Africa quickly northward. So, at least through the next 10-days, unless something develops close to home, the Atlantic looks relatively quiet especially compared to the recent burst of activity.
The seasonal forecasts all expected an above average year — we are at the letter G — with two big storms: Danielle and Earl, and another hurricane Alex as the main Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) producers of the season. Just as a thought, the expected active 2007 season had many storms (15 – through Olga), but only two, Dean and Felix, managed to produce 3/4 of the total ACE. The other storms were relatively weak, short-lived, and not particularly memorable.
I produced a plot for Roger Pielke Jr on his blog, and I have updated it through today. The current ACE is about 62 and that is about 10 days ahead of climatology in the Atlantic based upon the past records from 1950-2009. The peak of the season is September 11, so there is still half the season (at least) ahead of us.
Figure: Atlantic ACE to date (little black dots) and climatology (little red dots) based upon 1950-2009 storm records. The forecast ACE for the MetOffice (UK), NOAA, and Gray and Klotzbach (CSU) are indicated on the plot.