Hurricane Earl is quickly losing steam as it barrels northward and begins its recurvature in the middle latitudes. The main threat to New England will be a broad area of tropical storm force winds with gusts near hurricane force. Yet, the threat will be relatively brief as the transitioning storm moves into Canada.
Also see Anthony’s collection of satellite loops from yesterday’s post: Link
As an update to the 2010 Atlantic season in general, the development of four consecutive African Easterly Waves into Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston really got weather enthusiasts excited — and the public a little weary of potential US impacts. However, with Danielle and Fiona destined to be fish-storms, and Earl moving away from the US, that leaves the remnants of Gaston (now just a tropical low) as the main consideration over the next 10-days.
The very reliable ECMWF forecast model does not redevelop Gaston and sends the next wave off of Africa quickly northward. So, at least through the next 10-days, unless something develops close to home, the Atlantic looks relatively quiet especially compared to the recent burst of activity.
The seasonal forecasts all expected an above average year — we are at the letter G — with two big storms: Danielle and Earl, and another hurricane Alex as the main Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) producers of the season. Just as a thought, the expected active 2007 season had many storms (15 – through Olga), but only two, Dean and Felix, managed to produce 3/4 of the total ACE. The other storms were relatively weak, short-lived, and not particularly memorable.
I produced a plot for Roger Pielke Jr on his blog, and I have updated it through today. The current ACE is about 62 and that is about 10 days ahead of climatology in the Atlantic based upon the past records from 1950-2009. The peak of the season is September 11, so there is still half the season (at least) ahead of us.
Figure: Atlantic ACE to date (little black dots) and climatology (little red dots) based upon 1950-2009 storm records. The forecast ACE for the MetOffice (UK), NOAA, and Gray and Klotzbach (CSU) are indicated on the plot.
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savethesharks says:
September 3, 2010 at 12:29 pm
“…Is there something else….at play?…”
Richard Holle predicted that Earl would ‘blow out’ a couple of days ago:-
“…the electromagnetic interactions that in turn, drives the production of the tropical storms, will be lacking and the winds they will be a slacking, from the 3rd or 4th of September…”
My thoughts are that all hurricanes, including the Cape Verde type, occur when a surplus of atmospheric energy exists in a given place and turbulence is instigated. They are part of Earth’s ‘thermostat system’, and produce rapid localised cooling.
Hurricanes require continuous energy from the warm oceans below, along with EM charge from above, if they are to evolve and sustain themselves. We have had relatively weak solar wind for the last few days and, with coronal hole (CH420) rotating out of Earth alignment. There are no signs yet of other big Earth facing following, so as Richard Holle forecasts, major hurricanes are unlikely for the next couple of weeks.
Here’s a good link for checking out the solar connection for yourself (scroll down for coronal hole info) :-
http://www.solen.info/solar/
Sputter, indeed.
I’m 20 miles from the shore in Southern New Jersey.
Ended up mowing the very dry lawn in light winds.
Now I’m going to have to add water to the pool, I was hoping to get some rain, we need it. Not gonna happen.
Even the weather buoys off Delaware and Long Island are only reading 25 mph winds, according to wunderground.com.
At 5pm, NOAA reported 80mph winds, I’ll bet its a Tropical Storm by 7pm.
Does it make sense that they report 80mph winds, but the nearby weather buoys only see 25mph at the surface?
Looks like Richard Holle is the only one who has made correct predictions. And they were very specific at that.
John_in_Oz says: September 3, 2010 at 1:27 pm
……….
Correct & corrected.
Re: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm
The Earth’s magnetic field has a number of components of which strongest is the vertical in the high latitudes could be 90% of total field. In the equatorial area it drops down to near or equal zero = magnetic equator.
It is green line on NOAA map:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/data/mag_maps/pdf/Z_map_mf_2005.pdf
If you in the http address substitute 2005 with 1900 you will observe how magnetic equator is moving, and you can work roughly out the ‘crossing’ for any decade of the past 100 years. For more accurate calculation (as I have used) a data base is required. Such data base is available from The Institute of Geophysics at the ETH, Zurich, Switzerland (ranging from 1590-2000), it is not user friendly (requires a bit of Fortran programming for each function calculation).
I hope that answers your question.
Headline:
“Hurricane Earl hits Canada; world is saved!”
Fiona just bit the dust. However, a “surprise” Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the Eastern Pacific along the Mexican coast. Not much of a threat to intensify, but provide plenty of rain for the higher terrain. But what else would you expect in the tropics? Heavy rain and flooding…
Paging the United Nations WMO Extreme Weather Crisis Center: time to get the propaganda mill going, issue a press release on the flooding rains and unprecedented extreme weather!
We had to shut off the weather channel, the screen was totally overloaded with hurricane proof reporters and reporter-ettes. There was water, or something, coming out the set top.
It was a nice day in SWFL, temperature in the low 80s, humidity 50s, felt a lot like Christmas.
So, no hodographs, no Skew-T diagrams, just conjecture … is that the ‘state of the art’ today? (“Can you show me your homework”)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodograph
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skew-T_log-P_diagram
.
I’m on the New Hampshire coast, and this thing is just behaving like a Nor’easter, a weak one at that, that just formed the wrong way around, not from a western front but from the east. I hope the jet stream loses its loop and snaps back up—if this pattern stays, we are in for some 4-foot snows this fall.
“latitude says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:42 pm
Right now, I’m more impressed with the lack of storms forming in the Caribbean and gulf.”
BINGO!
savethesharks says:
September 3, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Chris, here is a whole case of data ammo, archive of all the recon flights info found.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2010/REPNT2/
Robert of Ottawa says:
September 3, 2010 at 4:06 pm
Headline:
“Hurricane Earl hits Canada; world is saved!”
=================
Is this per “The Shipping News” 😉
It must have made life on the East Coast exciting, still does for some.
Why would weather records be kept, except for its variability.
Data format for recon archived runs above;
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 07:30Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 7:05:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°47’N 74°32’W (28.7833N 74.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 310 miles (499 km) to the NE (34°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,488m (8,163ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the WSW (245°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 333° at 111kts (From the NNW at ~ 127.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WSW (243°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 929mb (27.43 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 340° to 160° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section – Remarks That Were Decoded…
Maximum Wind Outbound: 141kts (~ 162.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:10:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 141kts (~ 162.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:10:50Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 7:10:10Z
Remarks Section – Additional Remarks…
INFRQT MDT TURBC SW AND NE EYEWALLS
OK… it’s 9:30 p.m. in Southern New England and there is zip, zilch, nada evidence of a tropical storm in the area. No winds, no storm surge (believe me, it’s high tide just now and it is no higher than usual)… I appreciate being alerted to the possibility, but at noon my school canceled classes after 3… and for what? There is no “there” there.
I’m not venting at you, Ryan, you give good honest forecasts, but when the Weather Channel posts about how Earl has “slammed” the Carolinas and is “Taking aim on New England”…. and then all we have is dead calm… I’d like to see a little less sensationalism and a bit more realism in the projections.
Maps of Buoy locations you can access for data history…..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Northeast.shtml
Creativity is driven by curiosity,
control is driven by fear,
info is good for problem solving,
political doors need to be revolving.
Tom in Florida says:
Nonsense…The National Hurricane Center forecasts have been quite accurate. It is no surprise that Earl is weakening as it gets over cooler waters and with some increasing shear. They have been forecasting that for days.
And, the track forecasts have been pretty much right on the money too. And, people were rightly told to prepare for the worst because the National Hurricane Center knows there is uncertainty in track (and intensity) forecasts…and small deviations can make a huge difference, particularly in this case of a glancing blow.
Just to put some quantitative numbers on this, I (basically randomly) went back to Monday’s 5pm forecast discussion and looked at their 96 hour forecast for Earl ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al07/al072010.discus.022.shtml? ): They predicted a position of 38.0N 71.0W and intensity of 95 knots. The actual position and intensity at 5pm today ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al07/al072010.discus.038.shtml? ) was 38.2N 71.8 W, intensity of 70 knots. Their position estimate was off by only about 60 miles (which is a combined error for both speed and track location) over 96 hours! That is freakin’ amazing in my book (and probably a bit fortuitous)! Their intensity estimate is off a little more (25 knots), but they always warn that intensity estimates are subject to more error. (And, it should be noted that their intensity estimate did tend to decrease over time…Their 24 hour forecast from yesterday at 5pm had the intensity at 85 knots with about the same magnitude of position error as the 96-hour advance forecast.)
I think the folks at the NHC deserve quite a bit of credit (as do the models, which have handled this storm better than they have some others).
Richard Holle says:
September 3, 2010 at 6:32 pm
=======================
Thanks for the info!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
_Jim says:
So, no hodographs, no Skew-T diagrams, just conjecture … is that the ‘state of the art’ today? (“Can you show me your homework”)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodograph
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skew-T_log-P_diagram
===========================
I don’t have to show you anything, bud. 😉
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_alec
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
From: http://www.hurricanetrack.com/basics.html
“Moist, unstable air in the mid-levels Nothing seems to stop a growing hurricane quicker than dry air. We say “dry” since it is relative to the super-juicy air that creates hurricanes in the first place. Hurricanes need air that is rich with moisture and thus stored heat energy.”
To quote Dr. Jeff Masters from his blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2010&month=09
“Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. ”
“A recent microwave “radar in space” image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. “
savethesharks says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:10 pm
The reason for naming tropical storms is that there are often multiple storms at once, whereas nor’easters and other coastal storms are shortlived enough so that there is usually just one at a time. There have been some attempts at naming extratropical storms, but the idea hasn’t taken off.
It would have been difficult to talk about Hurricanes Danielle and Earl without some sort of tag.
Ric Werme says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:58 pm
===================================
Understood. It has just gotten too legalistic though.
And the cry wolf effect of the media reporting EVERY named storm as if each were a catastrophe equal with the other doesn’t help for the general populous, either.
I think that only hurricanes should actually have names then.
Tropical storms (and subtropical storms) should only be numbers, just like depressions are.
In a related vein, there was a trend in recent decades it seems, thanks to “doppler indicated”, for the NWS to issue a computer-generated “Severe Thunderstorm Warning” every time a strong storm showed up.
Every “hail core” showing up was pronounced “severe” and every doppler indicated became a “Tornado Warning”.
I understand better safe than sorry….but this over-reacting in the NWS broadcasts as of late creates the cry wolf effect too.
Seems to me they should scale back their warning systems across the board, so that the REAL emergencies, when they happen, will be better distinguished from the fake ones.
And naming Fiona, who was a complete dud….is a perfect example.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Joel Shore says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:23 pm
“”I think the folks at the NHC deserve quite a bit of credit (as do the models, which have handled this storm better than they have some others).””
So do I think they do a wonderful job! NHC has done a good job of expanding the out look time for the models, and their accuracy for 240 hours or less is hella better than 10 years ago. For as far as the models go, before they develop out of control feed back, and go to crap @10 / 15 days.
I have been working for 30 years to figure out the obvious pieces of the puzzle they left out. THE EARTH/MOON SYSTEM interactions! It is just, if they incorporated the method I use, into the models, the maximum range for forecasting general area, intensity, and timing, would be about 15 YEARS.
Then use the extrapolation of the current conditions presented the same as the past patterns as a base for the bridge from long range general location and timing, into the most recent weather patterns, that are currently used for the starting conditions of the models, to compare the outputs to the past three cycles for verification as well, not just the models to themselves.
What this lunar declination atmospheric tidal [LDAT] movement is, is none less than the driver of the Rossby waves, jet streams and several other periodic oscillations of the ocean basins.
My FREE web site has temperature and precipitation maps generated 30+ months ago, for six years of daily forecast. It is from looking at that set of daily maps, and comparing them to the differences between the past three cycles and this one, that I developed this hurricane forecast. If you would like you could view all of the daily maps from January 2008 through now, and for the next 3 and a half years.
If I had archived visual satellite video, to use as a data base (like you do) I could look back at the weather and TS tracks, knowing which real analog years to use an how many days to shift the Julian date to sync them to get tracks outlined in the process.
Complete details on how it works are in the research section of the site;
http://research.aerology.com/aerology-analog-weather-forecasting-method/
Little colored lines all running every where, with little relative synchronization, could be brought to life, with all of their warts exposed, the patterns that repeat are modulated predictably, by the interactions of the tidal forces at work.
“There are no signs yet of other big Earth facing following, so as Richard Holle forecasts, major hurricanes are unlikely for the next couple of weeks.”
“Looks like Richard Holle is the only one who has made correct predictions. And they were very specific at that.”
I visit this site often but I am not seeing what forecasting skill you guys are referring to. Any neophyte weather watcher could have told you that Earl was going to weaken as it headed out of the tropics toward the New England area.
What will be interesting is what happens with the remains of Gaston. Some computer models are forecasting another major hurricane in 3 days. That would contradict the statement made above.
Juan says:
September 4, 2010 at 2:20 am
“”Any neophyte weather watcher could have told you that Earl was going to weaken as it headed out of the tropics toward the New England area.””
True that is a general rule, but how many of these neophytes did so, for the right dates, from the right intensity, in the right location, 2 and a half years in advance? My maps [showing the precipitation received on the right dates,] have been posted that long, how many MONTHS in advance did NHC forecast this years storms?
Watching Gaston, and I am learning new things, are you? I only want to help augment the current understanding, I have no intention of fighting it, I want to help resuscitate it, not kill it!