From the “no headlines for you!” department, Danielle loses definition. It goes from TS to Hurricane Cat1, Cat2, and back to TS in less than 24 hours…see the image below of Danielle in the lower right:
Latest bulletin from NHC:
000 WTNT31 KNHC 242040 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 ...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 48.2W ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE.
It is reasonable to wonder if the models simply include the missing heat, thinking it must be somewhere, in these hurricane predictions. It must be a hold over from the Bush administration. Try looking under a table cloth.
Danielle! Wait come back!! I thought we had something speciallllllll…..
Richard Holle says:
August 24, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Did that chart really say “Max Wind = 117.00964”? Phew…if they had predicted 117.00965, we’d REALLY be in trouble…
A classic example of how local weather, i. e. wind shear and dry air, are the main factors in tropical system development.
Global warming out and global cooling in.
The signs are piling up. The climate is changing in front of our eyes.
Paul
No!
Alternatively, I could have done an Elaine Benes and said “Get out!”
… it was looking so promising just 24 hours ago …
Was it ‘recalled’ in time for the evening/6 PM news schedule?
Ric, did you have something to do with this?
.
It’s not over till the fat lady sings!
From NOAA’s NHC Web site: “DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN”.
Break out the champagne! She’s BAAAAAACK!!!
Yep — she really is a moody filly — back to a Cat 1 hurricane w winds at (what else?) 75 mph.
Put that in your models and watch your chips start smokin’
Latest batch of cooked noodles (model tracks)
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/3815/post1088028401800201282.png