Danielle now downgraded to tropical storm

From the “no headlines for you!” department, Danielle loses definition. It goes from TS to Hurricane Cat1, Cat2, and back to TS in less than 24 hours…see the image below of Danielle in the lower right:

Latest bulletin from NHC:

000

WTNT31 KNHC 242040

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010

500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO BE

TEMPORARY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 48.2W

ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST.  DANIELLE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...BUT IS

EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED TO A

TROPICAL STORM...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS...AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON

WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

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August 24, 2010 3:00 pm

Ok…so, still no hurricane emergency yet?!? I got a real hunch about Fiona!

Mike O
August 24, 2010 3:03 pm

How do they take these kind of storms into account when comparing current hurricane counts to historical? Prior to the satellite era, this would not have been detected or counted towards the total. It seems like there have been a couple of years recently where the count was significantly inflated by storms that would have never been counted in the past.

John Eggert
August 24, 2010 3:06 pm

Although it is fun to poke a bit of fun at NOAA and the NHC, maybe it is time to wonder if the GISS inflated temperatures are being fed into the models, hence resulting in over-rating the probabilities of hurricanes. I could be wrong about such a thing. I’ve been known to make mistakes before.
JE

Editor
August 24, 2010 3:08 pm

So Danielle counts as being a hurricane and goes against this year’s totals. Prior to space and even air travel, how many such hurricanes in the past existed but never were counted against a particular year’s totals?

Leon Brozyna
August 24, 2010 3:08 pm

She’s a moody filly she is, wrecking havoc with the models.

August 24, 2010 3:20 pm

Computer model flame out, again? Computer engineers like myself have a name for this, it’s called GIGO.
I suggest it was over blown from the getgo. Our local forecaster never boarded the hype train and gave the whole hurricane issue about 20 seconds total, last night. Not what you expect from a south Florida weather guy looking at a Cat 3 coming soon, unless he knew something. He is a real weather guy after all …

August 24, 2010 3:20 pm

It is a common thing in researching for cyclic patterns in past data to see increased reporting from increased number of recording stations, that skew the results with rampant rises in numbers of occurrences.
Satellite weather coverage and tropical storms is just one, number of small to medium earthquakes, is on a logarithmic rise by comparison to past poor coverage globally. You have to look at the spread of the largest occurrences to keep a grasp on the reality of the amount of change in the activity.
Unless you are focused on one regional locality there will be an immense transitional growth bias in the data gathered over the past 20+ years compared to 100+ years ago.
IMHO we will make more progress looking at regional climate transitions over time in search of cyclic patterns, that end up having good long lead forecast potential.

Boudu
August 24, 2010 3:21 pm

So is this better or worse than we thought ?

Dave Springer
August 24, 2010 3:34 pm

No question those are thin first year clouds.
Not only that but they appear to be rotten.

Ryan Welch
August 24, 2010 3:39 pm

John Eggert says:
August 24, 2010 at 3:06 pm
Although it is fun to poke a bit of fun at NOAA and the NHC, maybe it is time to wonder if the GISS inflated temperatures are being fed into the models, hence resulting in over-rating the probabilities of hurricanes. I could be wrong about such a thing. I’ve been known to make mistakes before.
I have been saying this for over a year. “The GISS inflated temperatures are being fed into the models.” I believe that data biased by UHI, station drop, station placement, and adjusted temperature, is being used in all the climate/weather computer models which gives you GIGO (Garbage In- Garbage Out). I can’t tell you how much this affects our local weather forecast with the daily high and daily lows often being off (on the high side) by as much as seven degrees and weather forecasts being largely useless beyond 24 hours. The weather forecasts in my area used to be fairly accurate, but now they are nearly worthless. Could this also be why hurricane forecasts have become so unreliable recently?

Brego
August 24, 2010 3:44 pm

It looks like Bermuda might take a hit. They are forecasting the intensity of this storm to increase ~50% over present by the time it reaches there in 5 days time.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL062010

August 24, 2010 3:48 pm

The equatorward position of the air circulation systems that has been developing since solar activity started to decline beyond the normal single cycle range is suppressing tropical cyclonicity by preventing the necessary rapid flow of energy from the tropics to the sub tropics.
Due to that suppression the tropical disturbances are not getting the latitudinal range they need to develop explosively.
The air circulation systems need to shift more poleward to allow the necessary development.

Michael Schaefer
August 24, 2010 3:53 pm

Over the past 10 years, weather forcasts in Europe – here: Germany – have substantially degraded, from very reliable over fairly accurate to completely useless.
On average, you are better off looking out of the window in the morning to determine the weather for the day yourself, rather than relying on official forecasts.
Could that be because the quality of official, “free” weather forcasts is being INTENTIONALLY blurred, so as to force people/institutions, who DEPEND on accurate weather forcasting for their daily work, to buy exact and reliable, but expensive weather forcasting contracts from weather agencies?
Just wondering.

August 24, 2010 4:02 pm

We saw the same effects in the slow start to the 2010 US tornado season, and will next year as well.
Question of the week?
What features of the Galactic and IMF magnetic field patterns, change so much, by what mechanism, that it causes the long term decrease in magnetic field strength, in the entire solar system, to drive a 110,000 year long Ice Age?

George E. Smith
August 24, 2010 4:07 pm

Well I think I have it; Danielle simply started off rotating in the wrong direction; so maybe Gaia has been reading AlGore’s book.
Naughty girl !

Alan Simpson not from Friends of the Earth
August 24, 2010 4:16 pm

Ah, but they named it! Just think of the devastation it wreaked on the phytoplankton!
Oh the humanity!
Doomed, we’re doomed!

Berényi Péter
August 24, 2010 4:23 pm

What’s that dark gray patch in the animation moving off the coast of Newfoundland over the North Atlantic, heading east?

August 24, 2010 4:44 pm

She’s not dead yet, she’s just pinin’ for the fjiords. . .

August 24, 2010 4:49 pm

Ho hum.
Destined for obscurity, following the Atlantic Ridge by the looks of it.
Two more right behind her, the one directly behind is already taking shape, and there’s an additional wave just about to go “feet wet” from W. Africa.
Either way, none of this is likely to reach CONUS – check the massive blast coming out of the Northwest from the Pacific. Rolling pretty well, probably squash the forming Atlantic activity like bugs on a windshield.

August 24, 2010 4:57 pm


Berényi Péter says:
August 24, 2010 at 4:23 pm
What’s that dark gray patch in the animation moving off the coast of Newfoundland over the North Atlantic, heading east?

that would be the first snowstorm of the winter aiming for northern europe. hehe.

August 24, 2010 5:11 pm

Another model just for grins…
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/danielle06l.2010082418_wind.png
(these are just models, reality is yet to be seen?)

August 24, 2010 5:25 pm

That loud wailing you hear is the Weather Channel crying because they have been unable to exploit a hurricane crisis in a long time and they have had far too crisis since the year they suggested meteorologists who don’t believe in AGW shouldn’t be meteorologists. Jim Cantori must bored out of his mind.

BarryW
August 24, 2010 5:51 pm

Temps or is it shear blowing the top off again? A lot of the storms that didn’t develop last year seemed to be due to shear. If it is, then is shear a prediction of the AGW models?

Pamela Gray
August 24, 2010 6:00 pm

It is reasonable to wonder if the models simply include the missing heat, thinking it must be somewhere, in these hurricane predictions. It must be a hold over from the Bush administration. Try looking under a table cloth.

Frank K.
August 24, 2010 6:09 pm

Danielle! Wait come back!! I thought we had something speciallllllll…..
Richard Holle says:
August 24, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Did that chart really say “Max Wind = 117.00964”? Phew…if they had predicted 117.00965, we’d REALLY be in trouble…

Tom in Florida
August 24, 2010 6:20 pm

A classic example of how local weather, i. e. wind shear and dry air, are the main factors in tropical system development.

August 24, 2010 6:50 pm

Global warming out and global cooling in.
The signs are piling up. The climate is changing in front of our eyes.
Paul

August 24, 2010 7:58 pm

No!
Alternatively, I could have done an Elaine Benes and said “Get out!
… it was looking so promising just 24 hours ago …
Was it ‘recalled’ in time for the evening/6 PM news schedule?
Ric, did you have something to do with this?
.

Chris R.
August 24, 2010 7:59 pm

It’s not over till the fat lady sings!
From NOAA’s NHC Web site: “DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN”.
Break out the champagne! She’s BAAAAAACK!!!

Leon Brozyna
August 24, 2010 8:08 pm

Yep — she really is a moody filly — back to a Cat 1 hurricane w winds at (what else?) 75 mph.
Put that in your models and watch your chips start smokin’

August 24, 2010 9:05 pm

Latest batch of cooked noodles (model tracks)
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/3815/post1088028401800201282.png

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