FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Chris Vaccaro 202-482-6093 August 5, 2010
NOAA Still Expects Active Atlantic Hurricane Season; La Niña Develops
The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential.
NOAA also announced today that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, and the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in unison, leading to more active seasons.
“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane prone areas to be prepared,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated outlook is projecting, with a 70 percent probability, a total of (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin):
- 14 to 20 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 8 to 12 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 4 to 6 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are still indicative of an active season, compared to the average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes; however, the upper bounds of the ranges have been lowered from the initial outlook in late May, which reflected the possibility of even more early season activity.
“All indications are for considerable activity during the next several months,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “As we’ve seen in past years, storms can come on quickly during the peak months of the season. There remains a high likelihood that the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record.”
Be prepared for the hurricane season with important information available online at hurricanes.gov/prepare and at FEMA’s ready.gov.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
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Ryan Maue adds some perspective to the hurricane season to date: is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy through August 5th a useful indicator of the total season activity? Not quite yet: for 1950-2009 historical Atlantic activity, the correlation is still low (r = 0.47) between the ACE through August 5th and the entire season. During the past 30-years (1980-2009) the correlation is (somewhat) better (r=0.63) but there are many seasons that have zero or very little activity at this point in August.
A reference bar graph whipped up from the HURDAT best-track archive of ACE shows the on average, only about 10% of the ACE is seen through August 5 (from 1950-2009).
Figure. North Atlantic tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) for the entire season (black bars) and values through August 5 (lime green portion of bar).
So far with Alex, Bonnie, and Colin, we have ACE of about 8, a far cry from the 71 from the record 2005 season. With the seasonal forecasts from NOAA, Gray and Klotzbach at CSU, Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi, TSR, FSU COAPS, and the UK MetOffice ALL prognosticating well-above average activity, the Atlantic will need to start ramping up quickly. With this season, let’s hope the consensus forecast is wrong!
Enneagram says:
August 5, 2010 at 12:02 pm
See http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/2010/b6.JPG
frederik wisse says:
August 5, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Your observations are very interesting. A few months ago, El Nino, curiously crossed the equator, going northwards and, as there would be no continent in between crossed southamerica and reached the Madeira island where it provoked a big flood.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm
Unisys map looks truer than Noaa’s, but after Climate-gate only God knows what the real SST are. If really cold, as you say, then there won’t be any real hurricanes.
Paulo Arruda says:
August 5, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Just waiting for the Ski Samba!
You can bet on the number of named storms this season at our old standby, https://www.intrade.com
A blast from the past:
Global Warming and Hurricanes
Judith A. Curry
Georgia Institute of Technology
Testimony presented to the Climate Change Hearing,
House Committee on Government Reform
20 July 2006
From page 9…
“Based upon the hypothesis of natural variability being the cause of the high
hurricane activity in the North Atlantic since 1995, there have been several predictions of a forthcoming downturn in hurricane activity: Goldenberg et al. (2001) imply a downturn in 10-40 years; and Gray (2006) anticipates a downturn in 3-8 years associated with a global cooling. By contrast, based upon the historical data record in the North Atlantic, an increase of 0.5oC (1oF) in tropical sea surface temperature implies an additional 5 tropical storms per season (Figure 9), and
hence global warming will result in an continued increase in the number of North Atlantic storms and hurricane intensity globally.”
Yeah right, like they can predict how many hurricanes we’re going to have.
The somewhat irregular Quasi-Biennial Oscillation rising so fast is going to have an effect on the Shear Levels/SLP status in the Atlantic Basins as well, especially prolonging the season into the fall as the QBO should easily get into positive territory. It still looks like a late start to the season, as well as a late finish into fall. One of the wildcards should be how SAL dust will effect our coming Cape Verde season, the last few seasons the SAL has been puting the kibbosh on these so-called “Busy Forecasts”.
Latest on Colin:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents
Folks living along the Gulf Coast (or any hurrican prone region for that matter) should always be ready when the waters warm up. Remember Hurrican Andrew? The ONLY hurrican that year. Wendell Malone – the potential for a monster storm is always there – so what else is new?
I’ve lived along the Gulf Coast since the 80’s. As near as I can tell, once a certain minimal water temperature is reached you can have a hurrican – higher water temperatures don’t seem to have that much of an impact. On the other hand, the DEPTH of the temperature seems to be important. Have you ever noticed that the hurricans that have to travel over the Floridian trench seem to drop a LOT of energy? Ivan, Opal, Katrina were all Cat 4/5 storms until they churned up all that cold water and dropped at least one categoruy. So, before I ‘panic’ about hurricans, I want to know that the water temperature is warm to an unususal depth.
Hm! Must be a fishy story ‘planted’ by sceptics.
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/international/cold-wave-kills-six-million-fish-bolivia-594
David Spurgeon says:
August 5, 2010 at 1:36 pm
It’s just depressing seeing all those tropical depressions disappearing….
In a contest between NOAA and a chimp, I will vote on what the chimps says every time.
“I have to hand it to NOAA, they are gutsy in exposed situations like forecasting hurricanes where the numbers are in a couple of months – unlike the we-will-all-be-dead forecasts for the climate. I thought they would chop their forecasts down a lot more than they did.”
And what if NOAA predicted nothing at all, but the weatherpersons just kept us informed of any development as they usually do? Why absolutely nothing different would happen that would not have happened anyway!
Is hurricane forecasting really just a waste of time, money and effort? Have satellites just eliminated the need to forecast hurricanes?
Jim
Frank K. says:
August 5, 2010 at 1:09 pm
“Based upon the hypothesis of natural variability being the cause of ”
Huh? How can a hypothesis be a causative agent? Oh I guess she means “natural variability” is the cause. Is this so called “natural variability” some kind of energy, or what is it exactly that it can change hurricane activity?
Is hurricane forecasting really just a waste of time, money and effort? Have satellites just eliminated the need to forecast hurricanes?
Jim
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Jim, I think so to both.
They can’t even predict where one will go, or strengh.
At one time they had the “cone of death” for Andrew stretching from New York to Rio and it was less than 200 miles from Miami.
Coming out with their predictions, and then being wrong so often, just make them look like fools.
Then no one pays attention to them.
I don’t think there will be many twisters until our unpredictable sun starts to get a bit more active. Twisters need a strong electric current to fuel then as well as heat. The sun just isn’t producing enough dense solar wind at the moment, but this may change.
Everybody else is throwing their predictions into the basket, this was mine the same day NOAA first came out with their predictions.
4-10 named storms
5-7 Hurricanes
2 Cat 3+ Hurricanes
I seriously doubt that Colin would have ever been classified as a TS by aircraft. Is NOAA making these initial classifications solely via satellite?
Latest on Colin:
THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN…A LOW PRESSURE AREA…IS
LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED…AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE
WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…70 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Anybody know how to contact Purchasing at NOAA? I want to sell them another box of caveats.
OK I’m going to rant. I’m a tropical fish. I’ve lived between 18 and 27 degrees N all my life. I was a pilot for a while so I know weather and keep track of it even more now that I do photography. Why? As Clyde Butcher said, “Clouds are Florida’s mountains”.
I have one statement – Hurricane seasons are unpredictable, period. Get some high winds in the African dessert, and some of that Sahara sand makes you wash your car every day for a month in the tropics and all the predictions just went in the trash. Seen it, done it.
Actually, I have two statements. The other is that people who are responsible for saving thousands of lives with their short term forecasts should not be in the seasonal forecast business. This creates prejudice, the latest two examples being Bonnie and Colin, basically two rain events that did not deserve a name. We get more wind and rain from local sea breeze thunderstorms every day here in Florida. Lat night was .7 inches of rain in 45-minutes….
This infuriates me to no end. They need to prove their long range divinations right and therefore call everything in sight. It keeps insurance companies happy. Since 2004, my home insurance has gone up ~$5,000 per year from the pre-2004 premiums. Nice!
As for 2004 and 2005, never seen anything like that in 50 years, which common sense tells me I won’t for another 50. Insurance companies measure flooding potential in flood years, for example, a 100-year flood event can go this high and so forth. They don’t do that with hurricanes. Why you ask? The short answer: The Hurricane Prediction (DIVINATION) Center. How long have I’ve been watching them? FOREVER!
Now they can get tracks pretty good, if the the winds are right, and that’s it. And if a coast is somewhat parallel to the track all bets are off. They can miss by 100 miles in less than 5-hours (Charlie – 2004).
Divination is for sorcerers, not for people responsible for thousands of lives. My advice, stick to what you know, and keep you mouth shot on everything else. Always worked for me.
Eyeball only and some imagination at work but in the graph above, is there a possible and approximately 50 year long cycle of hurricane strength and frequency effect being indicated in that graph?
“I seriously doubt that Colin would have ever been classified as a TS by aircraft. Is NOAA making these initial classifications solely via satellite?”
Yes, they did. There was a radarsat pass that saw some closed winds around the center at just above TS strength. They used that as sufficient proof to declare it a TS…regardless of how bad the IR sat image looked (Lack of cloud circulation aloft or at the surface). They admited it was a small storm but I think they jumped the gun a bit in their declaration of a TS with all of the bad environment it was about to encounter.
If anything go on & make it a depression but don’t name it based soley on sat info unless it is unequivical (sp?) until a recon flight can take a look up close & personal.
Just my thoughts,
Jeff
JKrob says:
August 5, 2010 at 5:40 pm said:
… They admited it was a small storm but I think they jumped the gun a bit in their declaration of a TS with all of the bad environment it was about to encounter.
I use to live in Melbourne, FL (even in 2004), and at one point I asked one of the guys over at the NWS just why they would call a marginal storm a TS, the answer I got back was “That if we don’t, the islanders won’t get out of the way fast enough.” It’s no wonder their predictions have gone to pot with that mentality.
Anybody got the number of NOAA Purchasing? I want to sell them a new box of caveats.
Before you start criticising NOAA on their classification of TS Colin, you should probably find out exactly what their TS classification criteria are and on what basis Colin might have met that classification.
Its not not enough to go on satellite appearance alone and say because it looked like such a crappy storm they got it wrong. Tell me on what basis Colin failed to meet the criteria for tropical storm status (albeit very short lived for now).