Guest post by Thomas Fuller
The paper ‘Expert Credibility in Climate Change,’ published in PNAS by Anderegg, the late Stephen Schneider, James Prall and Jacob Harold attempts to measure the credibility of climate scientists by counting how many papers they have published and how often their work has been cited by others.
This led to the creation of a blacklist that will be used to injure the careers of those who have signed letters or petitions that do not agree with the Al Gore/James Hansen position on climate change, and to intimidate future scientists, effectively silencing dissent.
The paper is poorly done, as I’ve explained elsewhere. They used Google Scholar instead of an academic database. They searched only in English, despite the global nature of climate science. They got names wrong. They got job titles wrong. They got incorrect numbers of publications and citations.
As I’ve mentioned, the highly respected Spencer Weart dismissed the paper as rubbish, saying it should not have been published.
But the worst part of this is the violation of the rights of those they studied. Because Prall keeps lists of skeptical scientists on his weblog, obsessively trawling through online petitions and published lists of letters, and because those lists were used as part of the research, anyone now or in the future can have at their fingertips the names of those who now or in the past dared to disagree.
The Joe Romm’s of this world have already called for this list to be used to deny funding, tenure and grants to scientists. And it will be. It doesn’t matter that the nature of the letters and petitions they signed varied widely, from outright skepticism to really innocuous questioning of the state of the science.
The paper is tagged ‘Climate Deniers.’ Now, so are they.
This is an outright violation of every ethical code of conduct for research that has ever been published.
They violate several sections of the American Sociological Association Ethical Guidelines:
“Sociologists conduct research, teach, practice, and provide service only within the boundaries of their competence, based on their education, training, supervised experience, or appropriate professional experience.”
The members of the research team were operating outside their areas of professional competence.
“Sociologists refrain from undertaking an activity when their personal circumstances may interfere with their professional work or lead to harm for a student, supervisee, human subject, client, colleague, or other person to whom they have a scientific, teaching, consulting, or other professional obligation.” The subjects of their research–the scientists on the list–risk grave harm as a result of this paper.
“11. Confidentiality
Sociologists have an obligation to ensure that confidential information is protected. They do so to ensure the integrity of research and the open communication with research participants and to protect sensitive information obtained in research, teaching, practice, and service. When gathering confidential information, sociologists should take into account the long-term uses of the information, including its potential placement in public archives or the examination of the information by other researchers or
practitioners.
11.01 Maintaining Confidentiality
(a) Sociologists take reasonable precautions to protect the confidentiality rights of research participants, students, employees, clients, or others.
(b) Confidential information provided by research participants, students, employees, clients, or others is treated as such by sociologists even if there is no legal protection or privilege to do so. Sociologists have an obligation to protect confidential information and not allow information gained in confidence from
being used in ways that would unfairly compromise research participants, students, employees, clients, or others.
(c) Information provided under an understanding of confidentiality is treated as such even after the death of those providing that information.
(d) Sociologists maintain the integrity of confidential deliberations, activities, or
roles, including, where applicable, that of professional committees, review panels,
or advisory groups (e.g., the ASA Committee on Professional Ethics).
(e) Sociologists, to the extent possible, protect the confidentiality of student records,
performance data, and personal information, whether verbal or written, given in the context of academic consultation, supervision, or advising.
(f) The obligation to maintain confidentiality extends to members of research or training teams and collaborating organizations who have access to the information. To ensure that access to confidential information is restricted, it is the responsibility of researchers, administrators, and principal investigators to instruct staff to take the steps necessary to protect confidentiality.
(g) When using private information about individuals collected by other persons or institutions, sociologists protect the confidentiality of individually identifiable information. Information is private when an individual can reasonably expect that the information will not be made public with personal identifiers (e.g., medical or employment records).”
I think it is clear that the paper, wrong on the facts, is unethical in its intent and outcome. I call for the pape to be withdrawn and for Prall’s website to take down the Blacklist.
Thomas Fuller http://www.redbubble.com/people/hfuller
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jcrabb says:
August 5, 2010 at 10:16 pm
‘Watts up with that’ published it’s own ‘blacklist’.
This is pretty laughable – so how will Anthony’s “Black List” affect the researchers involved? If Anthony offered up a list of scientists in the CAWG camp, do you think they would suddenly lose their lucrative six figure tax-payer-funded income or any of your big government Climate Ca$h awards just because their name appeared on WUWT? And, by the way, who doles out the billions in government Climate Ca$h anyway? Who gets to choose the “worthy” projects from the hundreds of proposals submitted? Hmmmm? Do you think they would find the PNAS blacklist handy?
In any case, anyone who would publish a paper entitled ‘Expert Credibility in Climate Change’ must be very worried about their own credibility…
P.F. says:
August 5, 2010 at 10:04 pm
What is the direct reference to Romm (or any of his minions) actually stating an intention to use such a list to deny funding (if such a thing exists)?
______________________________________________________________
It is not being call a black list per say but it looks like one all the same.
To call other prominent scientists who are named on the list “… folks [who] are actively spreading disinformation, especially disinformation that has been long debunked in the scientific literature.” and then state ” As I’ve said for many years now, it is time for the media to stop listening to, quoting, and enabling those who spread anti-science and anti-scientist disinformation.”
Sure sounds like a black list to me.
CLIMATEPROGRESS: (Joe Romm)
“That is the conclusion of an important first-of-its-kind study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Expert credibility in climate change.”
….The Union of Concerned Scientists notes that the study “findings are consistent with a 2009 survey of scientists’ attitudes as well as a 2004 survey of the scientific literature on climate change. The Anderegg et al. paper comes on the heels of a series of NAS reports that underscore the reality of human-induced climate change and the need to respond.”…
UPDATE: Chris Mooney writes:
Those of us who follow this issue closely won’t be surprised–but the results mean that journalists who have given a lot of weight to climate “skeptics” have some ’splaining to do. Essentially, this paper seems to be suggesting that they got the wrong “experts.”
Incidentally, given how closely this study hits home, I would expect it to be attacked–just as Naomi Oreskes’ famous paper “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change” was.
Duh! The disinformers are certainly upset with this study, since it exposes just how phony the entire disinformation campaign is.
Ironically, the best defense that some of the disinformers seem to have is, “I am not a skeptic.” But that label was originally pushed by the disinformers themselves — in fact, all serious scientists are skeptics. The issue is not whether someone is skeptical of the supposed ‘consensus’ — another ill-defined term that is it not terribly useful (see “Disputing the ‘consensus’ on global warming“). The issue is whether folks are actively spreading disinformation, especially disinformation that has been long debunked in the scientific literature. As I’ve said for many years now, it is time for the media to stop listening to, quoting, and enabling those who spread anti-science and anti-scientist disinformation.”
http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/21/pnas-study-climate-science-media-balance-deniers/
James Sexton says:
August 5, 2010 at 10:30 pm
That is just a list of suggested ethics, guidelines, and really rules. The people disparaging the people on the list regard ethics as a subjective consideration. To those people, lying is ok if the objective is valued as more than the indiscretion. Cheating is less of an evil if the end result brings one to a high platitude. Life? Well, that is subjective also. Choice? Everyone has a choice!! If the proper laws are passed, you can choose to do what you’re told.———–Modern day relative morality.
________________________________________________________
Sounds like the infamous quote from the Ex-Governor of my state, Mike Easley (who was caught with his hand in the till) …the Governor’s representative is saying that NAIS is voluntary, like having a drivers license for driving a car.
Ref – Jan says:
August 6, 2010 at 5:36 am
“the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are
substantially below that of the convinced researchers”
____________________________
All men (generic) are created (conceived) equal but that’s where it ends, a PhD does not a Scientist make. We really do need to get rid of the title Doctor of Philosophy, it doesn’t mean a thing anymore; we don’t even do philosophy anymore, do we? Nope! We need to make the title fit the times, : Doctor of Nuclear Physics = DNP, Doctor of Ancient History = dah, Doctor of Medicine = DM, Doctor of Environmental Guesstimation = deg, Doctor of Global Warming = dgw, etc. —Oh Yes! If the individual is a Doctor of the hard sciences the title should be capitalized, if not, then it should be shown in lower case letters so as to not confuse the public.
There is one other solution to this modern delema – Sciences = Doctor, and Liberal Arts = Wizard: Doctor of Geology – DG, Wizard of Political Science = WPS. How’s that? Takes a real wizard to fix these kinds of problems, maybe I’ll get an honorary from Hogwarts, I mean Hav’erd.
Fitzy says:
August 5, 2010 at 11:32 pm
About the only merit I can find in the AGW theory, is its a noble lie, whose unintended consequences would be the death of millions, or maybe that is the intended consequence….
_____________________________________________
Unfortunately it has already had one very intended consequence.
Oil Exec’s Wife Injured by Bomb: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7928778
And the “unintended consequences would be the death of millions” was actually fully intended by Obama’s Science Czar according to a book he co-authored in 1973.
“A massive campaign [Global Warming] must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States….
The fetus, given the opportunity to develop properly before birth, and given the essential early socializing experiences and sufficient nourishing food during the crucial early years after birth, will ultimately develop into a human being….” Source: http://grendelreport.posterous.com/obamas-science-czar-advocates-de-developing-t
By John Holdern’s definition scientists skeptical of CAGW are not even human because they obviously had not been “given the essential early socializing experiences” therefore extremists of the PETA mind set could become very dangerous. Unfortunately there is a large intersection between PETA members and CAGW believers.
PETA Throws Bomb in New Haven
PETA was involved with arsonist Rodney Coronado of the Animal Liberation Front, who torched a Michigan State University animal research laboratory.
vegetarian campaign director Bruce Friedrich encouraging activists to commit arson against restaurants, medical laboratories, and banks.
PNAS, the late Stephen Schneider, James Prall and Jacob Harold have opened up a can of worms that could be very dangerous.
Anthony and the rest of you, please be very careful.
Pascvaks says:
August 6, 2010 at 4:30 am
“This is an outright violation of every ethical code of conduct for research that has ever been published.”
____________________________
When there is no consequence to violating an ethical code (or law against _______ ) there is no code (or law)……
______________________________________________________
Oh there very definitely are consequences to violating an ethical code at least for this paper.
1. Scientists are denied publication
2. Scientists are denied tenure
3. Scientists are denied promotions
4. Scientists or labs are hurt by loonies.
All those could mean very big lawsuits and criminal action in the future.
Here is a chilling analysis of an extremist group (PETA) in the USA who has gotten away with many crimes: http://activistcash.com/organization_overview.cfm/o/21-people-for-the-ethical-treatment-of-animals
The confidentiality portions of those guidelines apply to patients or personnel involved in research as subjects of an experiment or study, not random third party professors outside your field. I don’t think you have a case.
Jan says:
August 6, 2010 at 5:36 am
…..Why get so exited about the list? If I want to get an impression on the reliability of a Anyway, why would the listed authors complain? This makes it easier for the CEI, the Heritage Institute, Koch Industries, and all other assorted oil and coal lobbyists to find and fund them.
__________________________________________________
You have got to be kidding!
The Oil and Banking interests have been behind CAGW from the very start. And the start was the First Earth Summit – 1972 chaired by oil Mogul Maurice Strong.
The planned end was the draft agreement called the Danish text. The draft hands effective control of climate change finance to the World Bank
Maurice Strong is a senior adviser to the World Bank and Trustee of the Rockefeller Foundations (who funds Greenpeace and WWF) David Rockefeller (Standard Oil) hosts annual luncheons at his family’s Westchester estate for the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors. In one way or another he has counted four of the past World Bank Presidents on his payroll.
Political activists have been very handy tools for the Bankers and Oil execs. The nuclear power industry in the U.S. grew rapidly in the 1960s. Utility companies saw this new form of electricity production as economical, environmentally clean, and safe. The Oil and Coal industry (owned by the Rockefellers) saw it as direct competitors and organized Activists to protest even going as far as paying $10/hr (ad in Boston Globe)
We do not have “economical, environmentally clean, and safe” power thanks to the manipulation of David Rockefeller and his former employee Maurice Strong, and Strong’s close pal of Al Gore.
I suggest you google “Maurice Strong” “David Rockefeller” “Ged Davis” “World Bank” and “Global Governance”
This is the Ged Davis from the Climategate e-mail on Global Governance & Sustainable Development (B1)
Also check out Radio for Peace International statements about Marice Strong.
It started with a list, a list of people who attended a synagogue, then a list of Jewish business, a list of addresses and pretty soon a yellow identifier worn on the outside of clothing. It began with a list. Today we have a polarizing issue amongst sceptics and hoaxster. Now too we have a list of those whom we can cast as “others”, of course, not like us. Now we have quasi permission to allow further insults, impuned integrety, and open to retribution from? us of course. Hasn’t anybody learned the lesson? marginalization permits all sorts of horrors, and it all starts with a list.
Is it surprising, that the same people who are after “global warming” are behind those theories of non reproductive sexual behaviors or behind malthusian theories?.
I am not saying that ALL those who are after these ideas are really conscious of them, the majority of them are just “imitators”, mechanical robots, “useful fools”, just repeating what those who fund their wallets or their self-indulgent egos tell them to do.
The “transmission”, though from the beginning was made through “esoteric” institutions ,where “specially qualified people” are chosen as Initiates, the echo of these deviate “principles” proceed mechanically, based on the same wrong characteristics of the human “psyche”, as self-pride, egotism, self conceit, self-indulgement, etc.etc.
Discredited theories (such as the earth being flat or surrounded by ether) are generally not given the time of day by most learned people, and especially not scientists who are searching for truth. The reason being is that the theories are wrong and have been proven so, so why waste the energy.
Joe Romm and his ilk say the same about the skeptics. Say is the operative word here. They are deathly afraid of skeptics and that is why they spend so much energy attacking the messenger instead of the message (they cannot attack the latter as they have no basis in scientific fact, theory, procedure or premise to do so).
The reason they are using histrionics and witch hunting on the skeptics is that they know skeptics provide a viable and advancing refutation of their hypothesis. Normal science would incorporate the skeptics in the fold to ascertain the truth. AGW cannot afford the truth to come out as that would impact their pocket book.
They know their god to be a false god, and so must demonize the non-believers because they cannot debate them in the arena of science. That they are resorting to these tactics indicates they also know they are losing.
History will judge them, and like all the other Torquemadas, it will not be kind. It is a shame they will do some damage in the short term, but that is the way Grand Inquisitors work.
I’m not a scientist of any kind.I’m a roadsweeper.How do I get on this most trendy & auspicious of lists
I guess those who are blacklisted will be brushed off as just having PNAS envy.
Will people please cool it with the WUWT list. Read the comments prior before you say anything further. It has been dealt with at a great length.
Unintended consequences rules !
This list will constitute an excellent ressource for people and corporation looking for scientists that have retained a modicum of integrity.
And we had come so far… so now we are back to burning witches and pogroms. Welcome to “the new normal”. If this is science, I want no part of it.
So just how many papers and citations did Einstein have prior to is paper on Relativity?
Look, I know it is not the cultural norm in academic circles, but publication does NOT measure worth of an idea. Ideas have their own inherent worth. In commerce, the very best ideas are never published as they give competitive advantage. Look at the large body of Trade Secrets. Coke anyone?
Measuring “worth” by the tonnage of trees killed is just wrong. I don’t care at all about the 20,000,000 “me too!!!” papers published. I care about the 1 little paper that shows it’s all bunk, and with elegance. Abraham Ortelius in 1596 and Alfred Wegener in 1912 did more to advance the understanding of continental drift than all the “consensus” that dumped tons of paper on them for 400 years.
The only thing the mass of the paper is good for is determining the size of the fire it would produce for burning witches at the stake…
Ko Ko: As sometimes it may happen that a victim must be found,
I’ve got a little list-I’ve got a little list,
Of society offenders who might well be never missed,
Chorus: He’s got ’em on the list- He’s got ’em on the list….( The Mikado.)
Vince Causey: well said. I remember Margaret Becket`s outburst about banning `sceptics` from the media. At the time I took it as code for `when shall we burn the books`. Don`t forget this is still the credo of the British Labour Party and it looks like the new coalition is going the same way. Again, not a single scientist in the cabinet. Is it true that we have reached 2010?
Back to the PNAS paper: would Galileo, Eistein, Feynmann and Popper have laughed or cried?
E.M.Smith says:
August 6, 2010 at 10:09 am
Bravo!
PhilJourdan says:
August 6, 2010 at 8:53 am
Discredited theories (such as the earth being flat or surrounded by ether) are generally not given the time of day by most learned people, and especially not scientists who are searching for truth.
Of course the earth it is not flat however IT IS permeated by the ether. If you are blind it does not mean that the rest is blind: Among men there are much more differences than between mice and men, believe me!
What is the WORD then?, what is it the Taboric light?.
I think this is silly. Who made these lists? The sceptics did, Inhofe did.
By mobilizing for petition after petition all these names were common
knowledge. And the sceptic scientists wnated it to be so, because their
impact through normal scientific work was minimal. That’s what the PNAS
article established and perhaps that is the real grievance you have?
Just an honest man speaking out (non-anonymously) in independent judgment of any false science is the only antidote against it. Only.
John
As I am on Prall’s list as number 397, I consider it highly unprofessional that they did not verify the correctness of the information with the persons who are on this list.
“Dear sir/Madam
I have this information about you in this database on which I plan to write a scientific paper, can you please confirm that the following information about you is correct?”
On the plus side of this :
One day that “denier” list will be referred to as the list of names of unsung heroes… those who dared to stand up and speak out, against all odds.
If your name is on that list, stand up and be proud.
PhilJordan,
You confuse contempt for fear.
Mikael Pihlström says:
August 6, 2010 at 10:34 am
I think this is silly. Who made these lists? The sceptics did, Inhofe did.
By mobilizing for petition after petition all these names were common
knowledge. And the sceptic scientists wnated it to be so, because their
impact through normal scientific work was minimal. That’s what the PNAS
article established and perhaps that is the real grievance you have?
——————-
Mikael Pihlström,
You assume that the estimation of the worth of a scientist(s) by another scientist(s) with respect to a contested piece of nature has any merit. No.
Nature decides. The PNAS article is adolescent hormone-esque posturing.
John