Here’s the last NOAA release on hurricane season: NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season from May 27, 2010. Now an update is coming. Still busy? We’ll see.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Susan Buchanan 301-713-0622 August 2, 2010
MEDIA ADVISORY
NOAA to Issue Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA will update the Atlantic hurricane season outlook this Thursday and provide the latest information on the climate factors behind the outlook, including the role of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) in the tropical eastern Pacific. This scheduled update coincides with the approaching historical peak of the hurricane season.
What: Media teleconference announcing the updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
When: Thursday, August 5; 11am ET
Who: Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
How: To obtain the number and passcode for the teleconference, please send an e-mail to susan.buchanan@noaa.gov or call 301-713-0622
# # #
It’s called “we’re going to have 15 hurricanes! Ummmm….nope 10 hurricanes…..ummmm….how about 7 hurricanes?…..would you believe 2 hurricanes?”
I can give you a preview:
“It’s worse than we thought…”
Interesting to see how much it might have changed from the previous.
Usually, only hurricane and tropical depressions that come ashore in Texas or Mexico affect the Southern Plains. Short-term forecasts can be useful, long-term not so much. This is where I check from time to time:
National Hurricane Center
OK S.
I’m waiting for NOAA’s December 2010 prediction for the 2010 hurricane season. I have some hope that one will be a bit more accurate.
NOAA (Needless Outrage And Alarmism) shoots high first and asks questions later….
As part of the Post-normal paradigm, and in line with the use of the 2 x 4 on the donkey…”Fust, ya gots ta git thar attention!”
The rest of this hurricane season will be dominated by the Cape Verde storms as normal. There are 120 days left in this season. Waves off of Africa trigger the Cape Verde storms. These waves come off that continent at about one every 3.5 days. Therefore there will be less than 35 more waves during the season. Of these about 10 to 15% develop into storms, so we will see about 5 or 6 more Cape Verde storms. A bunch of forecasters will be wiping egg off their collective faces soon.
Whatever happened to that monkey in a labcoat that predicted hurricanes before the season started? Think he predicted something like 6-8?
Would really be funny if he turned out to be closer then NOAA.
Dr. James Hansimian’s employment by NOAA has been terminated, and hurricane predictions will now be from Paul, the German Octopus, world’s preeminent predictor.
They’ll hindcast this year’s forecast next year and they’ll get it spot on.
Geez, what a ruckus over nothing! Calm down everybody.
All NOAA is doing is updating its outlook. People want to know the latest prediction. Suppose you listen to the weatherman on Sunday night and he gives his long-range forecast for the week. Now it’s Wednesday night and you want to know what Thursday’s weather is going to be like — do you really want the stale Sunday forecast, or would you rather the weatherman give you a revised forecast based on current readings?
If you’re interested in how accurate NOAA’s long-range predictions are, they’re still there. Just like the weatherman, NOAA has a better chance of being right, or at least close, if they’re not looking too far ahead.
These guys might soon end up like the UK’s Met Office. Abandon seasonal forecasts (due to inbuilt model bias). Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann have said :
Source: Michael Mann [pdf] :o)
General circulation modelling of Holocene climate variability
Of course Dr. Mann made a prediction this year. He predicted 23 named storms. I wonder how he views it so far and if he will revise his prediction soon ?
Where is Paul the octopus when you need him (it)? With 8 tentacles, just think of the various things that he could predict, saving time and money to allow for even more “research”.
//sarcoff
I live in SW Florida and am currently going naked on insurance. My hurricane prediction last year was zero hurricanes hitting the the US. I was 100% accurate. This year I predicted zero to two minimal hurricanes. I may have to change this years prediction to zero, period.
Doesn’t it seem like a storm gets a name as soon as it meets the threshold, by the most generous assessment, even if it falls below the threshold an hour later? Did that happen 30 years ago? How can we compare hurricane seasons and the number of named storms? Every number coming out of NOAA needs a date range.
I haven’t changed mine;
Richard Holle
24 July 2010
The real center of circulation (making land fall in Huston today) [it will be back in 109 days ready to talk business] was West of the rain band that they called Bonnie, Because there are no major outer planets having a synod conjunction with the earth until mid August, the precipitation was “missing” from the center of circulation, as the global circuit is still in the ion charge mode, it increases global precipitation rates post conjunctions. (Remember the flash floods in March, April?)
The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of August. There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.
I would expect to see an increase in background seismic activity 30 days both sides of the double conjunction. Just wait till they start saying the AGW caused all of the sudden activity right on (planetary scheduled) time.
April 6th forecast;
Season starts off slow but winds up big starting with first small Hurricane Aug 14-24th,
another three much bigger ones from September 13th through 28th, and after thoughts first and last weeks of October, for a total of
8 real named and three more fudged but really almost too weak
3 hurricanes
3 total, 1 making landfall in Florida, 2 across Georgia/ Alabama from the gulf side, mid September.
Typo found;
The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of
[September] not “August”.
There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.
NOAA is now predicting one month-long gianormous hurricane that will form over Washington DC on Octobe 1, sit there and grind for a month, and leave a month’s worth of rubbish in the runoff.
I should refrain from posting while watching my two grand kids, it is hard enough trying to read coheriently.
HaroldW says:
August 2, 2010 at 3:46 pm
Geez, what a ruckus over nothing! Calm down everybody.
====================================================
Because a prediction is not a forecast.
Because insurance companies are listening.
But your analogy is perfect, NOAA predicting hurricanes that far in advance is like asking them if it’s going to rain on this same day in 2 months.
But because they claim accuracy buy adjusting their predictions every month, when they start out too many months in advance, they end up looking like fools that don’t have a clue what they are talking about.
Using your analogy, NOAA should only predict hurricanes three days in advance.
But they can’t even predict strength and steering three days in advance.
mike sphar says: @ur momisugly 3:14
All good points but what you ought to do next is examine these things:
Temperatures of the ocean to a depth of a couple of hundred feet. Is the water warm enough to support big storms? After a storm passes will there still be enough warm water there or will it be cooled by the mixing and thus not support another storm with the next wave coming through?
Wind shear above the near surface waters. I look here:
http://spaghettimodels.com/
at Mike’s weather page with lots of links, such as
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
Are the waves coming off the continent far enough north of the Equator such that the Coriolis deflection helps to put these “eastern waves” into cyclonic motion?
These are the things that contribute to the
“…Therefore there will be less than 35 more waves during the season. Of these about 10 to 15% develop into storms, so we will see about 5 or 6 more Cape Verde storms. …”
If one or more of the requirements are not in place (or wind shear is) then the waves will not develop and reach hurricane force.
Perhaps NOAA will enlighten us on Thursday.
Jimmy Haigh says:
August 2, 2010 at 3:41 pm
They’ll hindcast this year’s forecast next year and they’ll get it spot on.
No, they will adjust the data upwads then first
Why not just tell us what it is now? I guess they want to have an official forecast that will allow them to erase the one they have on their website.
Here’s the original prediction from May 27:
Some excerpts:
We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
* 14-23 Named Storms,
* 8-14 Hurricanes
* 3-7 Major Hurricanes
* An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
1. Expected 2010 activity
Known climate signals and evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, combined with dynamical model forecasts, indicate a high likelihood of above normal activity during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below normal season.
—
The season is still young, but so far it’s been a dud…
I’m looking for them to adjust downward the number of named storms in decades prior to 1979.