All the worry being foisted in the MSM related to “Bonnie” and the Gulf Oil spill seems to be evaporating. NHC has discontinued Tropical Storm Warnings.
![[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]](https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310_PROB34_F120_sm2%2Bgif/143413.gif?resize=500%2C400)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
…BONNIE HANGING IN THERE WITH 30 MPH WINDS…TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS DISCONTINUED…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.0N 86.7W
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1014 MB…29.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
NONE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1014 MB…29.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…ISOLATED GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…FROM
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL…BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.
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@richard Holle
The planets are, on a large scale, electrically neutral. There are no net electromagnetic forces between them.
If this were not so, it would have been detected long before now: electromagnetism is 10-to-the-power-of-37 times stronger than gravity. (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/forces/funfor.html)
This strength is easily demonstrable – on a dry day, rub a comb across your shirt to give it static electricity, then hold it over a piece of paper on a desk. If you were successful, the piece of paper lifts off the desk. It takes an entire planet to keep the paper on the desk, but this force is easily overcome with everyday materials employing the electromagnetic force.
Regarding Gulf / Oil alarmism, here’s the synopsis of the Friday night (7/24) Coast to Coast AM show:
I may live in Nevada, but hurricanes are my hobby. I happen to be sitting on a boat near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico prepping it for the season, to ward off any incoming that I can. It seems to me that WUWT would do well to consider Ryan Maue’s web site on this subject. Dr. Maue has reduced the worlds tropical cyclone activity to a graph. A very revealing graph. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
rbateman says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:21 am
Why has the hurricane season flopped so far?
Is it the changes due to oncoming La Nina, that went where they didn’t expect La Nina to go?
==========================================
Rob, here are a couple clues, though not the whole picture for sure:
1) A lot of hellaciously dry air out over the Atlantic Basin. Damn Sahara!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html
2) Climatologically speaking, the real season does not ramp up until August anyways.
God its hot here in ORF today.
104 Sweltering Degrees. This is the type of weather where we start to wish for a tropical cyclone.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Wade says:
July 24, 2010 at 11:38 am
It was actually a low pressure. The persistent high pressure is what is sitting over the eastern US causing it to be so hot. I know it was a low pressure because Joe Bastardi talked about that low pressure and how it would hurt Bonnie a few days ago.
===========================
Right, upper level lows are the death of tropical cyclones, because the brisk winds they produce in the upper levels, shear apart any convection that tries to get organized around the center.
mike sphar says: “I may live in Nevada, but hurricanes are my hobby.”
So do you live in Nevada or not? Seriously though I like the ACE graph in your link. I think it ties in nicely with Willis’s paper in the new thread, namely that the earth produced more concentrated convection and global cooling in the 90’s and to a smaller extent in the mid 00’s to offset the global warming which came from natural sources such as the PDO and (to some extent) man-made CO2.
The way to remember the peak hurricane season is a little mnemonic I learned in Jamaica:
“June, too soon,
July, stand by,
August, you must,
September, remember,
October, all over.”
Wade says:
July 24, 2010 at 11:38 am
——–
Thanks, Wade.
********
savethesharks says:
July 24, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Right, upper level lows are the death of tropical cyclones, because the brisk winds they produce in the upper levels, shear apart any convection that tries to get organized around the center.
——
So upper level lows rotate counter-clockwise? That was the one I’d been watching tear Bonnie apart on NOAA’s satellite imagery and the water vapor flash page specifically.
Another question, if you don’t mind. That flash animation showed that Bonnie is pretty much dissipated and about all inland by 4PM today, but the 4PM advisory says it is 100 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. What is used to determine the “center” of a depression — via the bounds of the minimum central pressure?
Following high activity predictions after 2005 that flopped, they began making news stories about water spouts along the coast of Florida. I hadn’t heard of them before. Soon they will be reporting on sailing conditions for toy sailboats.
Please be careful when you say a storm bombs! Call it a dud instead! That’s a real NWS term for the sudden development of a nor’easter off the Atlantic coast. Actually, it’s “bomb out.” No one has come up with a better term yet. Suggestions welcome!
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wnoreast/wbombs.htm
There was an effort to replace the “Big Bang” with something more cosmological, but nothing seemed to work.
Ric Werme says:
July 24, 2010 at 3:26 pm
There was an effort to replace the “Big Bang” with something more cosmological, but nothing seemed to work.
Well it’s about time someone did.
Ohhh, you mean the name, not the theory. Heheh.
How about ‘Complete Codswallop’ ? 😉
Not knowing much about the mechanics of these beasts, I assume tropical storms rely on water uptake from the surface and plenty of heat to keep going with force. Would the oil on the surface tend to dampen the cycle somewhat by preventing some evaporation? Or is the relative extent of the slick too small to make a difference?
Been distracted by the gyrations of the politicians in Australia lately, leading into the Aussie election.
rbateman says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:21 am
As others have noted, things don’t really get cranking until August and September. Personally, I think the start of Hurricane season should be moved to July, and June storms could be called pre-season storms. New England gets snow in November (and sometimes October or September), and no one calls that snow season.
(Technically the snow season runs from the beginning of July to the end of June, but most people don’t know that….)
La Nina is generally supportive of an active season in the Atlantic.
Joe D’Aleo has a lot to say about the “July lull” at
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/tropics.doc
A couple excerpts:
One of the key reasons for the quiet period is a large slug of Saharan dust which has blown across the subtropical Atlantic shown in yellows and reds on the Wisconsin CIMSS imagery below. This dry dusty air produces stability and inhibits any convection. It is typical of July and usually explains the mid summer lull.
My guess is an above normal season but not the extreme number of storms as in 2005. The AMO remains well above normal with the warmth in the tropics and North Atlantic, usually correlating with active seasons. Warm water off the east coast makes the threat of a major storm more likely. Warm Atlantic summers with a negative PDO usually mean enhanced east coast threats.
savethesharks says:
July 24, 2010 at 1:47 pm
Also, and perhaps more important, upper level lows don’t ventilate the storm – healthy tropical storms need a high pressure system pushing air away from the top of the storm so that convecting air has someplace to go. this shows up in satellite photos as clockwise flows of cirrus clouds.
Bulldust says:
July 24, 2010 at 4:07 pm
The most believable speculation I’ve heard says that the wind will churn up the water so much that their will be plenty of water surface. Hurricane strength winds blow the tops of the waves and make a lot of spray.
Also, there are reports that people are having trouble finding oil on the surface to collect. Assuming that the leak really is secured, it will be interesting to see how quickly the Gulf recovers, especially if oil stays in some subsurface layers and keeps things anoxic.
I’m sure it will recover more quickly than the Valdez spill in Prince William Sound thanks to warm temperatures and hungry bacteria. All that oil is a lot of energy, and given the oil seeps in the Gulf, I figure there has to be a lot of bacterial critters that know how to put oil to good use.
Must be a good season to be a oil muching bacterium.
Dusty says:
July 24, 2010 at 2:48 pm
So upper level lows rotate counter-clockwise? That was the one I’d been watching tear Bonnie apart on NOAA’s satellite imagery and the water vapor flash page specifically.
Another question, if you don’t mind. That flash animation showed that Bonnie is pretty much dissipated and about all inland by 4PM today, but the 4PM advisory says it is 100 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. What is used to determine the “center” of a depression — via the bounds of the minimum central pressure?
===========================
Yup. All low pressure centers “cyclones” rotate counterclockwise in the NH. Of course it is flipped in the SH.
And all high pressure centers, or anticyclones, circulate clockwise in the NH…and counter-clockwise in the SH.
There is the rare “anticyclonic tornado” from time to time….but you will never see such reversed rotation and violation of the Coreolis Force, demonstrated on anything more localized than a tornado.
Watch the second star of the show here….a clockwise NH tornado.
Pretty rare….and fascinating….
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Dusty says:
July 24, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Another question, if you don’t mind. That flash animation showed that Bonnie is pretty much dissipated and about all inland by 4PM today, but the 4PM advisory says it is 100 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. What is used to determine the “center” of a depression — via the bounds of the minimum central pressure?
========================
The flash animation I referenced is water vapor information, so it should not be used to determine the low level circulation…which may be in a different place. (or what’s left of it LOL).
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Good now get back to drilling those relief wells and be careful out there!
“Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
July 24, 2010 at 12:10 pm
To asmilwho and others who dismiss planetary influence:
Do not underestimate the influence of planetary mechanics. ..”
Hallo Charles – I didn’t say that I don’t estimate the influence of planetary mechanics.
Richard made a specific prediction that an alignment of Jupiter and Uranus and whatever else will influence the weather in the Caribean in August.
What I pointed out is that this is either undectable (if mediated by gravitation) or impossible (if mediated by the elctromagnetic force). Other long range forces don’t exist, as far as anyone can tell.
There is a clear difference between weak forces operating over four and a half thousand million years to set up the kinds of harmonics you list, and the idea that these forces will affect the weather over the next few weeks.
Mike Sphar, Thank you, they are indeed very interesting graphs. They correspond rather nicely with solar activity graphs. Curiouser and curiouser.
asmilwho says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:53 pm
“Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
July 24, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Reply; Each of the planets that contain magnetically susceptible materials in their make up will exhibit homopolar generator properties proportional to three main vectors;
1) the total amount of magnetically susceptible materials contained.
2)The angular momentum of the body,
3)The total amount of magnetic lines of force cutting through the body.
There are standing magnetic fields surrounding the Galaxy, the solar system is passing through, there are also fields that extend from the sun out to the limits of the heliopause, that concentrate in the direction of the center of the galaxy, which the planets circulate around in, the continual variation of these almost DC standing fields felt by each of the planets is an inductive electromotive dance by which the total magnetic flux of the whole system remains balanced.
As the solar magnetic poles rotate on a 27.32 day period the Moon responds with a North / South declinational dance to counter balance the South to North movement of the COM of the Earth +/- 1,200 Km on the smooth ellipse the barycenter of the two scribe as “The Earth’s Orbit”. The hopolar generated fields are Negative at the poles and Positive at the equator, so yes the planet have no static fields between them, only on each of them from pole to equator.
In the case of the Earth this resultant standing voltage runs between over 200 volts per meter to around 80 volts per meter, (measured either from the ground up or from the equator toward the poles) varying in both space and time due to these interactions with the background magnetic flux value.
To get an idea of the total power involved, multiply the average 100 volts by the distance from Equator to pole in meters. This is the voltage that could be derived by doing the work of stopping the Earth’s rotation, or on the other hand this is the average power that is expended / stored in keeping the rotational momentum of the Earth steady, in the face of the current level of background magnetic flux.
To get the total power storage involved in amps, multiply the voltage found above by the velocity in Meters per second of the angular momentum of the earth’s total mass.
Yes electromagnetic forces are 10^27 times the force of gravity, as you mention.
Homopolar generator = Magnetohydrodynamic Phenomena
I was looking for the exact formula for derivation of the total power involved, no luck yet. But I did find;
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/208/1/012068
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/134/1/012042
http://iopscience.iop.org/0034-4885/25/1/307
http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/493/1/460/36193.text.html
It would appear that the production of a CME would be the start of the process of the expansion of the solar fields to cause the suspected power surge alluded to.
>> rbateman says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:21 am
Why has the hurricane season flopped so far?
Is it the changes due to oncoming La Nina, that went where they didn’t expect La Nina to go?
<<
It is not unusual to have no significant activity before August. Hurricane Andrew was an August storm.
savethesharks says:
July 24, 2010 at 7:50 pm
savethesharks says:
July 24, 2010 at 7:53 pm
———–
Thanks, Chris for the explanation and tips. Since then NOAA identified another Low near New Orleans which I looked at using IR AVN imaging flv and I could see it faintly and it was much more clear with their Atlantic Floater 1 IR AVN imaging. There can be a big difference in the location of a center between a system at the lower level than at the higher which one can see using water vapor.