Bonnie bombs

All the worry being foisted in the MSM related to “Bonnie” and the Gulf Oil spill seems to be evaporating.  NHC has discontinued Tropical Storm Warnings.

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL032010

1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

…BONNIE HANGING IN THERE WITH 30 MPH WINDS…TROPICAL STORM

WARNINGS DISCONTINUED…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…28.0N 86.7W

ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1014 MB…29.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28

KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CENTER

MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN SOUTHEAST

LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 30 MPH…45 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS MAINLY TO THE

NORTH OF THE CENTER. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE

CENTER REACHES THE COAST. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE

SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

WAS 1014 MB…29.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

WIND…ISOLATED GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS ARE

LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…FROM

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL…BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN

LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND THE FAR

WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS

OF 3 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

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H.R.
July 24, 2010 8:28 am

MSM cries “WOLF!” …… again.
If it had developed into a CAT 3 or 4, it would have been “proof” of AGW. The press coverage will die as fast as this storm since it didn’t deliver the AGW goods.
I’m glad there was nothing much to it for the affected residents’ sake.

Leon Brozyna
July 24, 2010 8:30 am

Another Tiny Tim bites the dust.
Oh well, it’s not just Bonnie that bombed. The media did try to make it out to be more than it was. Though at least Fox News seemed to be geographically challenged when referring to the the storm as coming from the Caribbean, when it formed north of Haiti/Dominican Republic. Last I looked, the Caribbean was located south of that island.

C James
July 24, 2010 8:34 am

Bastardi called this correctly several days ago. It is interesting to hear him actually accuse TPC of lying and then give his reasons why this is so. Why TPC makes some of the statements they do is beyond an objective look at the weather.

P Walker
July 24, 2010 9:09 am

Interesting . A couple of days ago I was watching The Weather Channel’s tropical update when their hurricane expert informed Jim Cantore ( who was on location in south Florida ) that Bonnie would peter out in the Gulf . Big Jim was obviously displeased . So far , the near record tropical season that Cantore and other commited alarmists has failed to materialize . Let’s all hope that this trend continues .

Joe Crawford
July 24, 2010 9:09 am

I am a bit curious what the increased wave motion from the storm will do to the oil from the spill, especially the oil that was mixed with emulsifiers. A lot of it just may disappear. Many, many years ago (while at sea and while it was still legal) adding a little dish soap to the bilge water before pumping it overboard resulted in an almost undetectable light brown cloud of very small particles that almost immediately disappeared. There was no noticeable effect while snorkeling through it. Or course we weren’t fish trying to breathe it.

Curiousgeorge
July 24, 2010 9:09 am

Never let a good Non-Crises go to waste.

P Walker
July 24, 2010 9:38 am

Sorry – I meant Cantore and other commited alarmists PREDICTED . As an aside , I suspect some of have actually hoped for such a catastrophe .

July 24, 2010 9:41 am

The real center of circulation (making land fall in Huston today) [it will be back in 109 days ready to talk business] was West of the rain band that they called Bonnie, Because there are no major outer planets having a synod conjunction with the earth until mid August, the precipitation was “missing” from the center of circulation, as the global circuit is still in the ion charge mode, it increases global precipitation rates post conjunctions. (Remember the flash floods in March, April?)
The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of August. There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.
I would expect to see an increase in background seismic activity 30 days both sides of the double conjunction. Just wait till they start saying the AGW caused all of the sudden activity right on (planetary scheduled) time.

July 24, 2010 9:44 am

For a good over view of the circulation:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

wayne
July 24, 2010 9:58 am

So Joe Bastardi hit it right on the nose huh, again. Don’t get too big of a head now Joe.

noaaprogrammer
July 24, 2010 10:01 am

The crisis mongers must be singing:
“My Bonnie lies over the ocean,
My Bonnie lies over the sea,
My Bonnie lies over the ocean,
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me.”

ShrNfr
July 24, 2010 10:02 am

There is a rumor that Al Gore has ordered several billion breeze boxes and some barges (leased from Enron) to set them up on. He figures with all the breeze boxes turned on, not only will he simulate at least a tropical storm, but he will elevate the temperature due to all the power being used, once again proving his point about AGW (Al Gore Whining).

sandyinderby
July 24, 2010 10:15 am

Joe Crawford says:
July 24, 2010 at 9:09 am
—————————-
An interesting case is that of the Braer which when aground in the Shetland Islands.
http://uk.ask.com/wiki/MV_Braer

rbateman
July 24, 2010 10:21 am

Why has the hurricane season flopped so far?
Is it the changes due to oncoming La Nina, that went where they didn’t expect La Nina to go?

Tom in Florida
July 24, 2010 10:24 am

As I posted on Tips & Notes a couple of days ago, more proof that warmer SSTs are not the only player in tropical storm development.

DirkH
July 24, 2010 10:30 am

Joe Crawford says:
July 24, 2010 at 9:09 am
“I am a bit curious what the increased wave motion from the storm will do to the oil from the spill, especially the oil that was mixed with emulsifiers. A lot of it just may disappear. […]”
I just read in some news article that dispersed oil is broken down quicker than undispersed; their only worry is that the underwater plumes might affect organisms more.
Source:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-bp-oil-plumes,0,2578252.story
I’m not that worried though. I prefer oily fish anyway 😉

asmilwho
July 24, 2010 10:52 am

Holle
“Jupiter (and the other planets) do not have much influence on the orbit of the Earth around the Sun from year to year. The VSOP model of the motion of the planets (from which the positions of the planets can be calculated quite accurately for thousands of years) indicates that the distance between the Sun and the Earth can get up to about 2400 km (about 2/5 of the diameter of the Earth) larger or smaller because of the influence of Jupiter.
A difference of 2400 km in the distance of the Earth from the Sun corresponds to a difference of about one part in thirty thousand in the amount of sunlight per unit area that reaches the Earth. This is far smaller than the observed variation, which is more like one part in a thousand, and which is mostly tied to the sunspot cycle”
http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/antwoorden/planeten.html#v457
The other major planets being much further away and much smaller than Jupiter, have even less effect.

Dusty
July 24, 2010 11:00 am

Leon Brozyna says:
July 24, 2010 at 8:30 am
Another Tiny Tim bites the dust.
Oh well, it’s not just Bonnie that bombed. The media did try to make it out to be more than it was. Though at least Fox News seemed to be geographically challenged when referring to the the storm as coming from the Caribbean, when it formed north of Haiti/Dominican Republic. Last I looked, the Caribbean was located south of that island.
————
It seemed NOAA’s tracking was bit off, too, being about 100 miles south of it’s course, and about as straight a line as it could be, not the curve they modeled and never changed. The primary reason it bombed was it got sucked into a (High pressure?) system to it’s west which quickly dragged it out, so it couldn’t develop. That system was pretty strong and it was the main reason the potential depression futher east of Bonnie never developed, however that one has never left the eastern coast of Mexico and looks like it might redevelop and maybe head north behind the High as the High moves into Texas.
I’ll be interested to see if and when NOAA might make note of the one over Mexico. It seems more likely than the new one to the west they note, but I’m not in this profession.

July 24, 2010 11:32 am

asmilwho says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:52 am
Reply; The information you posted is valid on the tidal orbital parameters, do you have information on the strength of the electromagnetic interactions that accompany the synod conjunctions?
Which is the mechanism I am proposing to cause these predicted effects.
Could you give me a better prediction?
Richard Holle

PJB
July 24, 2010 11:32 am

Following along with Mark Sudduth’s http://www.hurricanetrack.com it became clear fairly early (about Tuesday) that Bonnie was going to go out with a whimper.
Notwithstanding the named storms predictions, this year is analog with 2005….so we may yet be very active. Happily, with adroit analyses of the ENSO, the PDO and the AO etc., the fervor for AGW-boosted hurricane intensity is totally debunked.
The Hansenesque tendency to want to make every situation a critical one makes preparation and mitigation all the more difficult. Factual precision and accuracy are, as ever, the key.

Wade
July 24, 2010 11:33 am

rbateman says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:21 am
Why has the hurricane season flopped so far?
Is it the changes due to oncoming La Nina, that went where they didn’t expect La Nina to go?

Because we aren’t in peak season yet. The active part of the Atlantic tropical season starts in August 1 to November 1.

Wade
July 24, 2010 11:38 am

Dusty says:
July 24, 2010 at 11:00 am
The primary reason it bombed was it got sucked into a (High pressure?) system to it’s west which quickly dragged it out, so it couldn’t develop.

It was actually a low pressure. The persistent high pressure is what is sitting over the eastern US causing it to be so hot. I know it was a low pressure because Joe Bastardi talked about that low pressure and how it would hurt Bonnie a few days ago.

Stop Global Dumbing Now
July 24, 2010 12:00 pm

I’m still betting on Dr. Hansimian.

July 24, 2010 12:10 pm

To asmilwho and others who dismiss planetary influence:
Do not underestimate the influence of planetary mechanics. Jupiter controls the 11 year Sun spot cycle. This cycle alone creates numerous harmonics at 11.1212×2^N, where N is any number from 0 to 11. The product of 22, 45, 90, 180, 360, 720 and 1,440, 2,800, 5,600 11,500 and 23,000 years results in miriad cycles which effect the climate. Then there is the Moon with its 18 year tidal and 1,800 year declination cycles. Venus, Earth and Jupiter create a 20 year Landescheidt tidal cycle. Jupiter and Saturn combine to create a 60 year climate cycle. And when some of these cycles get together and reinforce, dramatic climate changes can be expected. Uranus a magnetic giant controls the solar 18,000 magnetic reversal cycle. And on, and on, and on.

July 24, 2010 12:27 pm

Wade,
The peak season is not through November, it’s a short window from August through September. Activity drops off dramatically in October and November.
There are no signs of increased activity developing in the next few weeks, so we will need about 2 named storms per week in the peak period to verify forecasts from the NHC and others…
Much like Bonnie, I think the seasonal forecast was exaggerated as well…

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