By Steve Goddard
People see what they want or expect to see. A great example is in today’s NASA Earth Observatory image of the day article.
A heat wave scorched the eastern United States in early July 2010, straining power grids, slowing transit, forcing nursing homes to evacuate, and prompting East Coast residents to shelter in “cooling centers,” according to news reports. Temperatures topped 105 degrees Fahrenheit (41 degrees Celsius) in Baltimore for two consecutive days. The heat wave was a global phenomenon. Beijing also experienced near-record heat, and temperatures soared to 122 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius) in Kuwait. This global map shows temperature anomalies for July 4–11, 2010, compared to temperatures for the same dates from 2000 to 2008. The anomalies are based on land surface temperatures observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Areas with above-average temperatures appear in red and orange, and areas with below-average temperatures appear in shades of blue. Oceans, lakes, and areas with insufficient data (usually because of persistent clouds) appear in gray.
The author missed mentioning the fact that almost all of Mexico and Australia were far below normal. The author missed the fact that much of north and equatorial Africa was below normal, as was much of Asia and eastern Europe.
To quantify this, I did a pixel count on their high resolution image.
It turns out that 5% more pixels were below normal than were above normal. The animation below makes this easier to visualize. Red is above average temperatures, blue is below average temperatures, and white represents average temperatures.
Below are close up animations
This is not a perfect equal area projection – so the pixel count method is not 100% accurate. However, it is clear that NASA claims of a global heat wave are incorrect. Some places were hot, other places (like where I live) were cold.
The author noted that it is hot in Kuwait in July? What are the chances of that?
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R. Gates
My map? LOL.
This is NASA’s map, NASA’s article and NASA’s imaginary global heat wave.
Steve,
Like so many of your excellent jobs at analysis…I don’t claim they are not accurate as far as they go, but I simply think the title and contextual form you put your analysis into is suspect. You look at what is essentially a short term weather event, and yet I see “CO2” in the headline to your post. This is just seems a tad bit dishonest to me, no less than looking at a large hurricane and seeing global warming, or snow in Florida and seeing a coming ice age. These are short term fluctations in a larger term climate regime…no less than solar cycles, the PDO, ENSO, and the rest. The longest term forcing in the climate right now is the Milankovitch cycle, followed at by the next longest term cycle (that we currently know about) that is the 40% increase in CO2 since the 1700’s, but to look at a short-term (i.e. weekly, as in the map you used) weather map and say anything at all related to CO2 (pro or skeptical AGW) is misleading.
R. Gates,
I think we are in perfect agreement. NASA is trying to pass off weather as climate, with a strong hint of CO2 as the culprit. I’m just calling them on their BS.
Excerpt from: R. Gates on July 17, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Better tell NASA:
Sure looks to me like saying “anything at all” about global warming aka climate change, which is of course intimately tied to CO2 in the minds of (C)AGW proponents. And I agree NASA’s presentation is misleading. ‘Well we can’t actually say this is due to global warming, that requires it to be a long-term trend, but it was a global event, and the two previous months were unusually warm as well!’ Ugh. Not exactly “just the facts.”
R. Gates, do you agree with the statement included with the map from NASA that says:
“The heat wave was a global phenomenon.”
?
Indeed that is what the article is about.
Southamerica map & animation totally wrong or biased. There are not any above normal temperatures but the contrary. Can´t believe it!
R. Gates (& Steve in subsequent posts):
I get your meaning now; maps accurate for the discussion at hand.
When you wrote that you had another more accurate NASA map and then posted that you had yet another even more accurate NASA map, however Steve was presenting a NASA map… I thought your train had jumped the tracks.
stevengoddard says:
July 17, 2010 at 3:02 pm
R. Gates,
I think we are in perfect agreement. NASA is trying to pass off weather as climate, with a strong hint of CO2 as the culprit. I’m just calling them on their BS.
__________
Well, I would just say agreement, and leave off the “perfect”, for now. Perhaps in a few years, one way or another, we’ll reach that perfect agreement mark. 🙂
Julian in Wales says: (July 17, 2010 at 2:53 am) …nobody is taking any notice of what is happening here in West Wales.
Well we are now, Julian, thanks to your thought-provoking post. Thank you… nice points.
Neel says:
July 17, 2010 at 11:45 am
The thing that jumped out at me first was the cooler temps in Mexico and Texas, mainly that it is SIGNIFICANTLY cooler than normal according to the graphic. Well, during the time period, July 4-11 that area was seeing what was left of Alex move out and another tropical system move in. With all of the showers that were moving through the area because of the very tropical environment, of course it was significantly cooler there.
What I would be interested to see would be 2 weeks before and the week after analysis to see if that trend continued. My guess is 2 weeks before it was hotter, 1 week before it was cooler (Alex), and the week after it was hotter. Removing such a significant area of cooler would skew the over-all trend back to warmer than normal…
_____
Meaning of course, skew it back to climate trends and not weather trends, or said another way, skew it back to something that might be CO2 related…
stevengoddard says:
July 17, 2010 at 9:46 am
Mike
No doubt the warm period 15,000 years ago was also “do to us” – as you so eloquently stated.
Mr. Goddard,
What due we need too due two get yu two sea that Global Worming is catastraphous and do to man?
(just kidding)
On a “degree days” basis the entire US West has been cold (on this map green is cold and blue is warm while red and yellow are very hot)
http://uspest.org/wea/gis/NV_41us.png
More discussion of using degree day maps for a better resolution than from NASA is here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/07/14/degree-days-view/
I think it’s pretty darned clear that this “global heat wave” is really very much ‘local weather’ …
R Gates, lets not put words in my mouth. I am more of a “Naturally Occurring Cycle” global warmist than a “it’s all our fault” global warmist. But I also dont want to throw bad science after bad science. There is a lot of bad science coming from the AGW side of the debate, the only thing that will show the truth in the end will be good science.
In science, nothing is ever “settled.”
Neel says:
July 18, 2010 at 7:17 am
R Gates, lets not put words in my mouth. I am more of a “Naturally Occurring Cycle” global warmist than a “it’s all our fault” global warmist. But I also dont want to throw bad science after bad science. There is a lot of bad science coming from the AGW side of the debate, the only thing that will show the truth in the end will be good science.
In science, nothing is ever “settled.”
__________________
No intention of putting words in your mouth, but the logical extension of what you said is to look at a larger data set, and that is exactly what is needed to put the effects of AGW in perspective. Looking at one snowstorm or heat wave, or one week’s data, or one month’s data, or one year’s worth of data is not going to tell you anything about what is happening with the climate, but both sides of the issue love to do this. Climate change is all about context (the larger wave rising or falling with little ripples continuing to rise and fall on top). An honest climate scientist will tell you that the frequency of x, y, or z is likely to increase over time due to AGW, but will never tell you that any specific storm or heat wave or whatever is due to AGW.
Excerpt from: R. Gates on July 18, 2010 at 8:17 am
Nah, an honest climate scientist will tell you what happens with global warming period. Sticking in the “anthropogenic” is assigning blame, the source of the warming is irrelevant. Likewise they will also tell you what happens with global cooling as well.
An honest climate scientist will tell you that the frequency of x, y, or z is likely to increase over time due to AGW, but will never tell you that any specific storm or heat wave or whatever is due to AGW.
Can we NOW finally include Michael Mann in with the “dishonest” climate scientists?
http://www.cleanskies.com/videos/exonerated-climategate-professor-speaks-out
At about the 6:45 mark he blames the current “heat wave” on AGW.
kirkmyers says:
July 17, 2010 at 9:24 am
A decade from now many of us will look back with incredulity and marvel at how so many people could be so taken in by what is clearly the greatest scientific fraud in history.
The government mouthpieces generating the global warming hysteria are torturing the data to support pre-ordained “scientific conclusions.” The fact that the AGW hypothesis has been thorough discredited is simply ignored.
Within the next few years or so, as the earth enters its next period of long-term cooling, any residual claims about impending global warming doom will be greeted with sneers and contempt.
___________________________________________________________
If we are unlucky enough to have deaf politicians enact crippling taxes and the “de-development” of the United States advocated by President Obama’s top science adviser, John P. Holdren. Holden also recomnended in the book Ecoscience“A transnational “Planetary Regime” should assume control of the global economy and also dictate the most intimate details of Americans’ lives — using an armed international police force.” http://zombietime.com/john_holdren/
Those who advocated this insanity may be greeted with more than sneers and contempt just as the French Aristocrats were when unusual cold caused famine and revolution. Extremists have already resorted to sending a bomb to the wife of an oil Ex. why do politicians think the activists they are hoodwinking won’t eventually turn on them when the find out the Utopia they were promised is actually closer to hell than to heaven, they were lied to and the wealthy are getting richer off the backs of the poor?
La Niña is predicted to begin this summer and the maps look like its already in play.
how are anomalies from the 11th to 17th…
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/
H.R. says:
July 16, 2010 at 6:06 pm
…
Temps go higher yet from more AC exhaust
== crank up the aire some more
etc.,
== etc.
Pretty soon you have runaway AGW.
Shouldn’t that be AA-CW? (Anthropogenic Air Conditioning Warming)?
8)