Above: NOAA Satellite IR image showing UHI of New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC
Above: A trend comparison slide from my tour, courtesy of my friend, former California State Climatologist Jim Goodridge.
Simon at ACM writes:
So reads the headline on the ABC website, as if it’s something we don’t know. Obviously, as cities increase in size, the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect will also increase. However, the latest “research” bolts this on to the IPCC’s incorrectly exaggerated warming predictions, to give some even scarier scenarios:
Dr Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the UK’s Met Office, and colleagues, report their findings in the journal Geophysical Research Letters [although I cannot find the article there right now].
Betts and colleagues found not only do cities retain more heat than rural areas do but hot cities will grow even hotter as the climate warms and cities grow.
By mid-century, night-time temperatures in cities could rise by more than 5.6°C, they say.
At stake are the comfort and health of people who live in cities around the world, especially those who don’t have access to air-conditioning.
“If you’ve been exposed to hot temperatures during the day and you expect relief over night, that becomes increasingly difficult as temperatures at night get warmer,” says Betts. “We have to prepare to live in a warmer world.”
In a concrete jungle, roads and buildings absorb sunlight and trap heat, which also flows as waste out of cars, air-conditioning units and even just the breathing of millions of people crammed into a busy grid of streets.
As a result, cities create their own, warmer microclimates – a phenomenon called the urban heat island effect.
Unfortunately, this is another GIGO* case, where the results from the IPCC’s incomplete models, which vastly overstate the sensitivity of the climate, are plugged into further models of UHI effects (which may or may not be accurate). However, satellite temperatures are continuing to diverge from the IPCC’s predictions, which means that research based on them is the stuff of fairytales.
Read it here.
* Garbage in, garbage out
netdr says:
June 26, 2010 at 7:33 am
I had an amazing discussion online with a climate alarmist who felt [not thought ? ] that parking lots and UHI should be included in global warming.
His/her feeling was that the temperature of the earth should reflect the experiences of the people inhabiting it. So the 8.3 million new yorkers should get more votes than the 1 million sheep in Montana….
____________________________________________________________________
Having a deep acquaintance with New Yorkers (all my relatives) and with sheep (I just finished mucking out their barn) I would give the vote to the sheep not the New Yorkers. The sheep have a much better grasp on reality. Further more I would gladly register my flocks votes for them….
Pielke Sr. makes a big deal about this.
Simplistic AGWers often point to the rise in co2 and say look the temperatures have also risen. I point out to them that UHI has also been on the rise and that is your man-made global warming. :o)
It seems NOAA is catching on also. This is from their weather site on 06/25/2010:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=54130&source=0
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KLOU.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KSDF.html
IR shows surrounding areas of Louisville Metro area as much as 9F cooler before midnight arrives. I have lived in a rural area for quite some time. I could have told them that!
John
Links are to current temps in previous post. Here temps from 06/25/2010 at both Louisville airports:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=54130&source=0
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=54130&source=0
Doh!
Standiford Field
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 9 AM (13) Jun 25 78.1 (25.6) 66.0 (18.9) 30.1 (1019) Variable 5
8 AM (12) Jun 25 75.0 (23.9) 64.9 (18.3) 30.1 (1019) NNE 3
7 AM (11) Jun 25 71.1 (21.7) 64.9 (18.3) 30.09 (1018) Calm
6 AM (10) Jun 25 71.1 (21.7) 64.9 (18.3) 30.08 (1018) Calm
5 AM (9) Jun 25 73.0 (22.8) 66.0 (18.9) 30.07 (1018) Calm
4 AM (8) Jun 25 72.0 (22.2) 64.9 (18.3) 30.06 (1017) N 5
3 AM (7) Jun 25 73.0 (22.8) 64.9 (18.3) 30.06 (1017) Calm
2 AM (6) Jun 25 73.9 (23.3) 64.9 (18.3) 30.06 (1017) NNE 3
1 AM (5) No Data
Midnight (4) Jun 25 77.0 (25.0) 64.9 (18.3) 30.05 (1017) N 6
11 PM (3) Jun 24 78.1 (25.6) 64.9 (18.3) 30.05 (1017) N 3
10 PM (2) Jun 24 80.1 (26.7) 64.0 (17.8) 30.04 (1017) N 7
9 PM (1) Jun 24 82.0 (27.8) 64.0 (17.8) 30.03 (1016) NNE 12
8 PM (0) Jun 24 84.9 (29.4) 64.0 (17.8) 30.01 (1016) NNE 12
7 PM (23) Jun 24 87.1 (30.6) 64.0 (17.8) 30 (1015) N 14
6 PM (22) Jun 24 88.0 (31.1) 64.9 (18.3) 30 (1015) N 9
5 PM (21) Jun 24 89.1 (31.7) 62.1 (16.7) 30.01 (1016) WNW 12
4 PM (20) Jun 24 89.1 (31.7) 64.9 (18.3) 30 (1015) NW 12
3 PM (19) Jun 24 87.1 (30.6) 71.1 (21.7) 29.99 (1015) NW 14
2 PM (18) Jun 24 84 (29) 71 (22) 30.01 (1016) Variable 7 light rain
1 PM (17) No Data
Noon (16) Jun 24 80 (27) 71 (22) 30.05 (1017) NNW 12
11 AM (15) Jun 24 84.9 (29.4) 73.9 (23.3) 30.02 (1016) W 13
Oldest 10 AM (14) Jun 24 84 (29) 73 (23) 30.02 (1016) W 12
Bowman Field
24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 9 AM (13) Jun 25 77.0 (25.0) 64.9 (18.3) 30.11 (1019) ENE 9
8 AM (12) Jun 25 73.0 (22.8) 66.0 (18.9) 30.1 (1019) Calm
7 AM (11) Jun 25 69.1 (20.6) 66.0 (18.9) 30.1 (1019) Calm
6 AM (10) Jun 25 69.1 (20.6) 66.0 (18.9) 30.09 (1018) N 3
5 AM (9) Jun 25 70.0 (21.1) 66.0 (18.9) 30.08 (1018) Calm
4 AM (8) Jun 25 70.0 (21.1) 66.0 (18.9) 30.07 (1018) Calm
3 AM (7) Jun 25 72.0 (22.2) 66.9 (19.4) 30.07 (1018) Calm
2 AM (6) Jun 25 73.0 (22.8) 66.9 (19.4) 30.07 (1018) Calm
1 AM (5) No Data
Midnight (4) Jun 25 75.0 (23.9) 66.9 (19.4) 30.06 (1017) Calm
11 PM (3) Jun 24 77.0 (25.0) 66.0 (18.9) 30.06 (1017) Calm
10 PM (2) Jun 24 79.0 (26.1) 66.0 (18.9) 30.04 (1017) N 5
9 PM (1) Jun 24 81.0 (27.2) 64.9 (18.3) 30.04 (1017) N 8
8 PM (0) Jun 24 84.0 (28.9) 66.0 (18.9) 30.02 (1016) N 9
7 PM (23) Jun 24 86.0 (30.0) 66.9 (19.4) 30.01 (1016) N 12
6 PM (22) Jun 24 87.1 (30.6) 66.0 (18.9) 30.01 (1016) NNE 8
5 PM (21) Jun 24 88.0 (31.1) 64.9 (18.3) 30.01 (1016) N 7
4 PM (20) Jun 24 88.0 (31.1) 66.9 (19.4) 30 (1015) WNW 13
3 PM (19) Jun 24 84.9 (29.4) 73.0 (22.8) 30 (1015) WNW 7
2 PM (18) Jun 24 80 (27) 71 (22) 30.03 (1016) WNW 9
1 PM (17) No Data
Noon (16) Jun 24 82.9 (28.3) 75.0 (23.9) 30.04 (1017) NW 7
11 AM (15) Jun 24 82.9 (28.3) 75.0 (23.9) 30.02 (1016) W 12
Oldest 10 AM (14) Jun 24 84 (29) 75 (24) 30.02 (1016) W 8
Looking at monthly GISTEMP anomalies, the 1978-1997 and 1998-2008 periods both have similar, statistically significant and positive slopes.
No doubt!
I am using raw USHCN data. I grid the data using 5-degree boxes.
Needless to say, this bears little resemblance to adjusted GISS product!
It’s all very variable. Did you know there is no “statistically significant” warming from 1979 – 2008? It’s all within standard deviation. Yet I have no doubt it warmed from 1979 – 2008.
White roof tiles? How about white paint with ceramic insulation additives mixed in. Can’t that be used to paint roof white?