By Steven Goddard,
In my last post, we discussed how there has been no visible change in the landfast ice near Barrow, AK. during the last week.
The University of Alaska has been tracking breakup of this ice for the past decade. The latest breakup was July 11 which occurred last year. The earliest breakup occurred in 2004 on June 16. They have devised a model which forecasts the breakup, based on solar radiation already received and forecast into the future by NCAR’s WRF weather model. Their current forecast has it breaking up after July 10, which would at a minimum tie the record.
The current WRF forecast is predicting very cloudy conditions near Barrow through mid-July.
Temperatures in Barrow have been running well below normal this summer.
This has been largely due to cloudiness. The current view of Barrow is seen below.
Long term weather forecasts change all the time. But for those of you expecting a big melt this summer, I hope you didn’t bet a lot of money on it.