By Steve Goddard
El Niño made it’s last gasp this week. Note that SST’s in the equatorial Pacific went from above normal to below normal during the past few days.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/plots.php
Is there a La Niña on the way? Most of the models said no in April, though it appears they may be already wrong – given that they forecast positive ENSO through the summer. Two models forecast a very strong La Niña.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
The last El Niño to La Niña transition occurred in 2007, and caused a sharp drop in GISS global temperatures.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2006.9/to:2008.1
Most of the US had a miserably cold winter during the recently deceased El Niño. It is not pleasant to think what a cold La Niña winter might bring.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_userdate&daterange=DJF&year=10
Here was my prediction from February, 2010 :
Flashback to 2007 – SST To Plunge Again?
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John Finn: You wrote, “The 2007/08 La Nina was cold by recent standards but in the context of the longer term, it was the warmest La Nina in the UAH record. We’ve just experienced a fairly moderate El Nino but UAH temperatures have been rivalling those of 1998. ”
The reason why TLT anomalies during this El Nino are approaching the levels experienced during the 1997/98 El Nino is due to the step change in the mid-to-high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere following the 1997/98 El Nino:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/06/rss-msu-tlt-time-latitude-plots.html
Also discussed in this post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-temperatures-this-decade-will-be.html
Regards
Smokey says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:27 pm
Roger Carr says:
May 13, 2010 at 11:28 pm
davidmhoffer says: (May 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm) That is why I am calling for the replacement of both it’s and its with itz.
It’s not logical, David. Its meaning changes without the apostrophe, and it’s a whole new game with.>>
Really? Actually the spoked word, itz actual sound, is what conveys meaning. When the same sounds mean different words, our minds automaticaly choose the correct meaning in the context of the sentence. When you say “put it over there” to someone out loud, has anyone, ever, EVER stopped you and asked if you meant there, their or they’re?
The spoken words it’s and its sound identical. In a spoken sentence meaning is derived from context. The need to differentiate the two in written form is of no more value than is insisting they be pronounced differently to ensure people know which one you mean when speaking out loud. Itz a technicality. I am betting that not everyone who reads this knows for certain if I should have said its a technicality or it’s a technicality, but I am betting that no one misunderstood me when I said itz a technicality.
Al Marinaro says:
May 13, 2010 at 11:18 pm
“… Dare I say, favorable AMO/PDO SST phase couplets could come into play these next 5-10 years for central U.S. drought. If this occurs, dare I say watch out for scenarios in same places the dustbowl formed but not to the extent of the 1930′s because of better soil conservation practices.”
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Not if the idiots in Congress and the corporations buying the crops have anything to say about it. The newest idiocy is sterile bare earth strips instead of grass filter strips, and getting rid of trees and ponds that might harbor disease carrying wildlife. So we are back to the dustbowl era type landscape if the bill passes.
Food Safety’s Scorched Earth Policy: http://ppjg.wordpress.com/2009/07/23/hr-2749-food-safety%E2%80%99s-scorched-earth-policy/
The Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Content is falling rapidly into La Nina territory.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure3.gif
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/xzmaps/
The Trade Winds have picked up (blue means above-average west-east winds).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ua850_c.gif
Atmospheric Angular Momentum has moved into La Nina territory.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif
The SOI has moved into La Nina territory.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
All of these track the ENSO very closely.
I’ve got the Nino 3.4 being close to Zero in May (down from 0.7C in April and 1.82C in December 2009).
http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/7098/ensovseuoha.png
http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/488/tradesensoapril10.png
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2637/aamensoapril10.png
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3263/soiensoapril10.png
Stu wrote:
“PS. that warm anomaly in the Atlantic off Africa is very noticable. Wonder what’s going on there?”
It is very intresting that North Atlantic is warmer than South Atlantic in NH spring below 200 m.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-temp-200-small-rundate=latest
The major reasons for vertical currents at this depth is the salinity differences.
That is probably also the answer for Stu´s question. The surface water is less saltier than it use to be. That may depend of less evaporation because less wind or different wind pattern.
“P.G. Sharrow says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:21 pm
When I was young and learning about such things ( 55 years ago).
It is = it’s
It in plural = its
It in ownership = its’”
That is certainly the way I was taught to write propper England, like what the Queen does.
Wade says:
May 14, 2010 at 5:03 am
Lest we forget: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/
It will be interesting. I’ve been telling everyone that I think we will have a hot summer here in the southeast US, followed by an even colder winter than last year. I just have a gut feeling that this summer will be hot. Already May here in North Carolina has had several 90 F days. An early heat wave usually means a milder summer, but the 90 degree days didn’t last long. This is no heat wave, no records broken, just a lot of heat early on.
__________________________________________________________________________
Wade, I am also in NC. We just had 35F just a couple of days ago. Unfortunately the weather history for my location does not goes back past 2004 and no further (they – wunderunderground wiped the record)
for May of 2004 there were 12 days of 90 to 94, 3 days of 95 to 97 and 2 days of 98F for a total of 17 days of 90F and above highs. Since then there has been TWO count them TWO days, 91F and 93F in 2007, of above 90 temps in May and two day of 91F so far this year. So compared to May of 2004 the weather for the last six years, during the solar minimum,has been very cool here in the middle of North Carolina.
Gail, those new Ag policies are news to me, and will detrimental if a drought does initiate. Absolutely…
Stu, you discuss La Nina in the Northern Plains as being Warmer then normal, with a tongue of Positive Temp anomalies for the winter. Yes, in general this is true, but look at the winter’s of 2007/2008 and 2008/2009. 07-08 was solidly La Nina, 08-09 had a borderline Weak La Nina (the atmospheric state said it was La Nina). Now, when you look at La Nina’s sorted by PDO phase, it becomes clear. Those typical La Nina anomalies (you mentioned) are more likely to occur during the Positive Phase of the PDO. While years in the -PDO phase La Nina’s are more like they were in the Late 40’s and 50’s (49-50, 50-51) , just look at 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 winters for example. This is one of the reason’s many including myself suspect next winter to be somewhat similiar in nature. This rings true, especially for the upper midwest / northern plains / and upper rockies area.
2007-2008 was the snowiest winter on record at many Colorado ski areas.
pgosselin says:
May 14, 2010 at 4:11 am
I recall awhile back Anthony citing history in cautioning us not to predict a La Nina later this year. Joe Bastardi, for example, predicts a significant one.
I was wondering what Anthony thinks – without looking at history.That wasn’t Anthony.
Wade says:
May 14, 2010 at 5:03 am
Lest we forget:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/
That was Bob Tisdale.
“it’s been fun watching the women tennis players in madrid wearing long sleeves and pants in mid-may. ”
Yeah. Most of the European cycling races have featured full body cover – and last night I watched a women’s beach volleyball match in China where the women were wearning their bikinies over long tops and bottoms. That’s the last straw.
Aagh! Don’t even suggest it!
It’s probably too much to expect commenters to adhere to spelling rules, but may I pedantically suggest fixing the first sentence of the lead post?
/Mr Lynn
Yep, this El Nino is gone, and we may get a La Nina setting up…such is the nature of these cyclical climate events. Did you notice how warm the central and northern Atlantic are?
Roy comments on ENSO, looking that the AMSR-E SSTs:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/05/el-nino-rapidly-fading-la-nina-just-around-the-corner/
For a picture of how cold it was last week, around the world:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20100512_e.png
Pamela Gray says:
May 14, 2010 at 6:12 am
“All due to wind”
But not for the mixing of surface water with cold water below. Also, but not the main reason.
The main reason is the divergenze due to the small effect of the Coriolis Force along the Equator (right to the north and to the south of it) when the wind blows from the East. That is the same reason for the upwelling along the west cost of N America and S America with northern winds in the first case and southern winds in the other.
Apparently Gore saw this coming, purchasing a mansion in Southern California (Montecito) because it’s too cold in SF.
“Bob Tisdale says:
May 14, 2010 at 6:48 am
Stephen Wilde wrote, “ENSO events have more to do with wind strength along the equator, and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America.”
The “and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America,” does not necessarily happen during El Nino Modoki/central Pacific El Nino events.”
Noted Bob but that was part of the quote from Steven Goddard and not my words.
I’m noting what you say about the differences between ‘normal’ and Modoki El Ninos but haven’t yet formed any opinion as to why there is a difference or as to what the implications might be.
You gotto agree that by all means a La Niña (A Girl) is better than el Nino (a Boy), She is cool, though a bit cold…
R. Gates
You see, the Gates of a positively warming up hell are kept wide open to welcome all of you Gaia believers. There isn’t any profiling down there, however you will miss all those Kool drinks you used to, they evaporate after you cross those gates.
An electromagnetic driven El Niño and La Niña:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm
Stephen Wilde: You replied, “Noted Bob but that was part of the quote from Steven Goddard and not my words.”
Sorry, Stephen. I’ll redirect the comment.
R. Gates wrote: “Yep, this El Nino is gone, and we may get a La Nina setting up…such is the nature of these cyclical climate events. Did you notice how warm the central and northern Atlantic are?”
Would you care to explain why they’re warm? Would you care to predict how long you expect the El Nino-induced variations in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic (which are what caused the recent rises in SST anomalies there) to linger? Or are you just pointing out the obvious?
Les Francis says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:55 pm
[ … Sun is currently spotless, La Nina possibly developing, if one of those Iceland Volcanos erupts with a half decent ash and SO2 cloud into the stratosphere then you Northern hemisphere dwellers will need to get out the long johns. … ]
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Nah, not me, I’ll just toss another couple of tons of pellets into the bunker. After all the PR folk tell me it is carbon neutral (I wonder if it is heat neutral 😉 ).
kdk33,
I agree excellent news for the poor vanishing lizards. However, I might get to feeling sorry for my chickens and have to use a heat lamp as well as my waterer heater.