R.I.P. El Niño

By Steve Goddard

El Niño made it’s last gasp this week. Note that SST’s in the equatorial Pacific went from above normal to below normal during the past few days.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/plots.php

Is there a La Niña on the way? Most of the models said no in April, though it appears they may be already wrong – given that they forecast positive ENSO through the summer. Two models forecast a very strong La Niña.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

The last El Niño to La Niña transition occurred in 2007, and caused a sharp drop in GISS global temperatures.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2006.9/to:2008.1

Most of the US had a miserably cold winter during the recently deceased El Niño.  It is not pleasant to think what a cold La Niña winter might bring.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_userdate&daterange=DJF&year=10

Here was my prediction from February, 2010 :

Flashback to 2007 – SST To Plunge Again?

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157 thoughts on “R.I.P. El Niño

  1. Wow, look at those computer models, Robust just does not seem to cover it. One month is what it takes for the models to diverge half a degree. Two months make it a full degree. Six months give us a two and a half degree range. One of the models is bound to be right. Of course the fifteen or so that are wrong won’t count.

  2. Well, if this fall and winter are cold, you can bet that GISS will show that it was the 2nd warmest fall winter on record!!!

  3. The SSTs are clearly falling. What about the OHC? Any recent data available?
    The atmosphere is still warm however and it will be interesting to see if it falls fast.

  4. More “rotten” snow on the way then?
    Perhaps a lacklustre NH summer, followed by another viscious NH winter.
    I wonder if the Authorities will once again be caught short on preparations for cold weather, and how many lives will be snatched by the cold as AGW lies subvert preparations and divert resources into useless activities such as windmills.
    What will be the impact on NH agriculture of another tough, long winter? Food prices up?

  5. it’s been fun watching the women tennis players in madrid wearing long sleeves and pants in mid-may. yes, madrid is at a little altitude, but surely this is still unusually cold weather for spain at this time of year.
    Andy Murray roars back to form with easy Madrid Masters second round win
    On a desperately cold evening at the ˜Magic Box’ tennis facility in the Madrid suburbs, when it felt more like Dunblane than Spain, Andy Murray plainly had no intention of dragging out his second-round encounter with Argentina’s Juan Ignacio Chela
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/andymurray/7716586/Andy-Murray-roars-back-to-form-with-easy-Madrid-Masters-second-round-win.html

  6. Joe Bastardi has been predicting this over at Accuweather.
    He has also predicted a viscous N.H. winter 2010/2011
    F.W.I.W he has also been predicting a viscous hurricane season this year.
    Sun is currently spotless, La Nina possibly developing, if one of those Iceland Volcanos erupts with a half decent ash and SO2 cloud into the stratosphere then you Northern hemisphere dwellers will need to get out the long johns.

  7. “Perhaps a lacklustre NH summer”
    Perhaps not. Joe D’Aleo points out the tendency for warm (at least U.S.) summers in a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina. The summers of 1983, 1988, and 1995 come to mind.

  8. We’ll see how much of a drop off we get with neutral or cool conditions. But I’d be willing to say that global temperatures correlate pretty well with ENSO if you account for a few month lag.
    I definitely agree with Bastardi that hurricane season will be quite active. I mean…look at the anomalies in the Central Atlantic! Dang. Guess the winds are the other factor. Those will be the only unknown this summer. Hope that the oil spill gets contained soon!

  9. PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.
    Everyone posting here is intelligent and should be able to get that right!!
    IanM

  10. Well, whatever happens with this year’s fall/winter season, remember that it is always consistent with global warming theory. Hot, cold, rain, drought – it’s all explained by global warming!

  11. there are plenty of lizards in V thay should have some mad scientists in the plot maybe Al Gore might become a V world spocksmen on climate change. I don’t the V lizards will fall for that

  12. Ian L. McQueen says:
    May 13, 2010 at 8:27 pm
    PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.
    Everyone posting here is intelligent and should be able to get that right!!>>
    It remains my position that the amount of time people spend complaining about this issue is completely out of proportion to itz value. That is why I am calling for the replacement of both it’s and its with itz.
    I also dispute your assertion that everyong on this blog is intelligent. Itz obvious from my posts if not others that this isn’t true.

  13. Dont forget cold and snow are all caused by Al Gore and global warming!
    Solar flux of the sun is back down to 69 – ouch – get those contingency plans going!

  14. ENSO is based on 3 month averages. We saw this before during transitions. As long as the 3 month average is above .5 then El Nino still exists. A 3 month average below .5 is ENSO neutral until there is a 3 month average below -.5 which becomes a La Nina. According to NOAA!
    Natural variations exist on all time scales and can only form a trend in retrospect. The model projection are as worthless as= (Pick your favorite)

  15. Frank K. says
    May 13, 2010 at 8:32 pm.
    That’s why it’s called “Climate Change” now.. even if the world heads into another LIA, it’ll be explained as being caused by humans.

  16. viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
    vicious = nasty, depraved
    Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.

  17. When I was young and learning about such things ( 55 years ago).
    It is = it’s
    It in plural = its
    It in ownership = its’
    and if you need a ‘ to determine which is which, you must be dumber then a fence post.

  18. Why are they using two shades of purple for the high temperature and low temperature anomaly? That could lead to misinterpretation …

  19. Ian L. McQueen says:
    “PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word ‘it’s means ‘it is’. The possessive of ‘it’ is ‘its’. NO apostrophe.”
    Agree, Ian. But it’s an uphill battle.
    Maybe this will help.

  20. In their April 7 seasonal hurricane forecast, Klotzbach and Gray predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes based to a large extent on the dissipating El Nino and anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic. Their next forecast comes out June 4. I’m sure we’ll see further adjustments.
    I’m interviewing Phil Klotzbach on Monday for my next Examiner.com column and will share his thoughts.

  21. 90 day SOI climbing, 30 day faltering
    If this is the settling in period for the cold PDO and cooling La Ninas will be prevalent then how cold is it going to get? And we have Katla rumbling away as well!

  22. Ian L. McQueen says:
    May 13, 2010 at 8:27 pm
    PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.

    That’s what I said about “cancelled” last year, only to discover the rules of the English language had been re-written in order to accommodate the ignorant. After that incident here, I decided to appeal the 1985 decision by my local grade school to disqualify me from the school spelling be for spelling it with two “L’s” (yes, I really missed that word). Unfortunately, the statute of limitations expired in 1986. There is no justice in this world.
    Back to the subject, I’ll take D’Aleo’s assessment (Can I use two apostropes in the same word?) over anyone else’s.
    Reply: It’s spelling bee. ~ ctm

  23. Enter Bob (Iv’e got a graph for that) Tisdale in 3..2..1..
    How long will it remain neutral?

  24. davidmhoffer says:
    May 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm

    I also dispute your assertion that everyong on this blog is intelligent. Itz obvious from my posts if not others that this isn’t true.

    I was about to post something intelligent, but I was stumped by what to write…
    … Fridays…

  25. I have been following the near surface temperature as measured by the satellite system overseen by Roy Spencer et al. http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ Worldwide near-surface temperatures have been remarkably high for the better part of a year, especially recently. I had supposed this to be an El Niño effect, but now I’m not so sure. It looks like Earth’s average temperature in 2010 could clobber the 1998 record. As a skeptic who figured temperatures would remain flat or trend downward as we enter the next decade, this has my attention. How long should it take for near-surface temperatures to return to normal after the El Niño finishes? However, from the first graph in this article, it appears that the Atlantic Ocean is having its own kind of strong El Niño event.

  26. P.G. Sharrow, davidmhoffer, Smokey, Ian L McQueen:
    I believe the plural of ‘it’ would be ‘they.’ Unless it’s an object; then you get ‘them.’
    In any case, President Jackson was right–it’s a @#$ poor mind can think of but one way to spell a word.

  27. vigilantfish says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
    viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
    vicious = nasty, depraved
    Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.
    ——
    REPLY: In Chicago, our winters are both vicious AND viscous! This last one was downright nasty, sound like that applied for much of the US.
    It’s (it has) been very cold & cloudy in Chicago lately, quite unseasonal…

  28. vigilantfish says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
    viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
    vicious = nasty, depraved
    Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.
    +++++
    You’ve obviously never tried to walk across a Minnesota parking lot in February.

  29. To: P.G. Sharrow
    You wrote “and if you need a ‘ to determine which is which, you must be dumber then a fence post.”
    I’m sure it was just a typo, but when making comparisons, you use “than” not “then.” It is easy to remember which one to use: compare has an “a” so does “than.”
    I think it is hereditary, as my Mother and my sister both use the wrong word.
    {ps: Hope I didn’t misspell anything}

  30. Why are all the spelling and grammar experts out today? Is their a school teacher picnic day somewhere?

  31. vigilantfish says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm

    viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
    vicious = nasty, depraved
    Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.

    Molasses in winter can be described as both. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Molasses_Disaster Colorado, too.
    http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1310&dat=19900217&id=zG4VAAAAIBAJ&sjid=huoDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4922,3790598
    The 2nd link also has a story about a new (1990) El Nino.

  32. re Smokey May 13, 2010 at 9:27 pm
    Oh brother! lolrof! How do you come up with those so fast?
    I thought I had a great response to Ian and just threw it away, cant follow that act.

  33. I was hoping for a viscous winter this year, but all we got in the Willamette Valley was rain.
    Does the incipient La Niña mean we’ll have a viscous or a rainy summer, or will it be mild and dry? It’s something I’d really like to know. Summer’s always better when its weather is mild.
    How’d I do?
    😉

  34. So the weather boys, Anthony and Joe, see cooling coming. And they’ve both been right in the past. Check their record. Oh ya, that’s right, weather is not climate. And it’s true. In this case weather is more accurate!

  35. vigilantfish says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
    “viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
    vicious = nasty, depraved
    Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.”
    With the oil floating on the surface of the ocean right where hurricanes are likely to soak up their moisture from, the former may be more correct for coming hurricanes.

  36. Its, It’s, Its’
    Blame it on spell checker. Apparently Spell Checker was a U.S. Fulbright Scholar who went to Oxford tried to read English and then got confused.
    Color, colour, etc etc etc

  37. This represents a major change, with worldwide climate repercussions.
    Let’s send a pair of scientists with impeccable credentials to conduct on site measurements. I’m sure that Mann and Hansen would do fine field work measuring the ocean temp first hand. Just set ’em out to the mid-Pacific in a well-stocked dinghy (just pitch it as a tropical Pacific cruise and they’ll jump at the chance).

  38. Actually, a Nino or Nina event is official when at least 5 consecutive trimonthly periods with anomaly’s of 0.5C or More for El Nino, and -0.5C or less for La Nina occur. But, Sensible Weather practice shows us Nino/Nina patterns can show up with different configurations and time scales and should be treated as thus. For Example, Nino Region 3.4 Temps can be 0.3C (Below the 0.5C anomaly threshold) but the or MJO/GLAAM phase/stage pattern can put the atmospheric state into a Nino mode. The same can be said for some other Nina/Nino scenarios. Certain elements in the Pacific can actual enhance these patterns as well (EPO/PNA blocking over NPAC, or the PDO phase). I like others ,do believe this coming Winter for the Northern Tier of the United States could be another blockbuster. Dare I say, favorable AMO/PDO SST phase couplets could come into play these next 5-10 years for central U.S. drought. If this occurs, dare I say watch out for scenarios in same places the dustbowl formed but not to the extent of the 1930’s because of better soil conservation practices.

  39. @peat
    “It looks like Earth’s average temperature in 2010 could clobber the 1998 record.”
    That’s not how amsutemps daily look like. You can’t compare, there was no daily record in 1998. Just check the monthly data here.
    And just click all the links in this comment thread and read and read and read. You will see that 2010 is very unlikely to beat 1998. There is not enough ocean heat. La Nina keeps coming back sooner than expected.

  40. davidmhoffer says: (May 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm) That is why I am calling for the replacement of both it’s and its with itz.
    It’s not logical, David. Its meaning changes without the apostrophe, and it’s a whole new game with.
    One simply cannot write: it is meaning changes unless English is one’s second, and only recently aquired, language, and the meaning of one’s words is not very important at all — or you just cant, um, cannot (or mebbe can’t) help it because you dont know…

  41. @peat
    You can’t compare AMSU with 1998. No daily data then. Better look at the monthly figures here.
    La Nina keeps coming back sooner than expected by the models, because there is not enough heat flux from the oceans. Just click at all the links in this comment thread or here. Ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific turned even negativ. All the “heat” is gone.

  42. Lance,
    It was deliberate. I also included several other spelling mistakes which unfortunately were corrected (by spellcheck/mods?). My point, not well made obviously, is that there are more important issues than an odd spelling or grammar error.

  43. I always feel inhibited from commenting by the intellectual sophistication of this site but since we’ve desended to grammatically correct lizards, I feel right at home. Glad you spotted the spelling bee ctm.
    Could we not get a grant for fitting the lizards with wee parasols to save them from the infernal spotless sun?
    Sorry a bit jaded over the sudden shelving of the “greatess moral challenge of our time” ie ETS (Emissions trading scheme) but the hunt for the thermometer in !&@$& Svalbard was a hoot and reminds me of when I became a reader of this blog during the Chinese weather station stuff.
    Looking forward to Anthony’s visit to Aus.
    Cheers all, great posts and thanks to moderators as always.

  44. Obama’s cabal of extremists will now move into panic-stricken mode to get their CO2 legislation passed. I hope it passes – this economic self-flagellation will serve them right for lynching the Brits for what was an American blunder on the gulf oil platform.

  45. Richard M asked, “What about the OHC? Any recent data available?”
    The NODC has not yet provided a first quarter update for 2010 for its global OHC data.

  46. I’m a little new to this site but have been quite impressed with the solid science that behind most of the subissions. Being new, I may have missed something that you all have already read before and take for granted. So at the risk of sounding a little naive, I thought I would ask anyways, and hope that someone would take the time to bring me up to speed.
    Looking at the area in the Pacific Ocean, just off of the west coast of equatorial South America where the El Nino condition is supposed to have been in full force and is shown to dwindle down, I note something that to me looks quite suspicious. Is it normal for a tight narrow line of heat anomaly to line up right on the equator and extend off of the coast of South America out into the Pacific for thousands of miles, almost like tracer fire from a gun? Is it normal for there to be such a narrow band of heat anomaly? It would seem to me that a more normal “distribution” of equatorial heat anomaly to look more like what is showing up off of the coast of Africa. The only thing to me that would explain this narrow ridge of heat anomaly that seems to jet off of the coast of S. America would be an extremely narrow Pacific current. But could this also be another example of temp data bias? Are there a string of temperature acquiring buoys along the equator?

  47. Jack Jennings
    The “greatest moral challenge of our time” is apparently not as important as getting re-elected.

  48. Most of the US had a miserably cold winter during the recently deceased El Niño. It is not pleasant to think what a cold La Niña winter might bring.
    On the other hand, it is rather pleasant to think wat a warm La Niña winter would bring…

  49. I hate to be pedantic about spelling, but engine oil is a viscous fluid and has measurable viscosity.
    Masked bandits tend to be vicious if one thwarts their evil intent..

  50. Spelling. I’d like to add my tuppenceworth.
    There are important differences between:
    There, their, and they’re
    Too, to and two
    Loose, and lose
    And definite doesn’t have an ‘a’ in it.
    It may seem pedantic and picky, but the whole intended meaning of a statement or sentence often changes with the misspelling of simple words, and a little care would avoid misunderstandings (typos notwithstanding!).

  51. Its high time that WUWT sponsored a Global dunces hat award for the nuttiest CAGW theory – awarded by popular vote every three to six months. I’m sure we could secure a Media platform for presentation of the award.
    Closely followed by model of the year for the most stupid Climate model.
    KenB

  52. I have noticed in the last couple weeks that weather presenters on BBC TV are frequently remarking on how far below historic average temeperatures the current daily temperatures are, but cheerfully tell us that it should be warmer ‘soon’ without giving us any evidence for their optimism, apart from the very obvious approach of Summer, while the MSM carries silly stories such as the very funny and terribly unscientific Great Lizard Extinction.
    I know they are actually reptiles and not lizards, merely similar to lizards, but New Zealand’s Tuatara has survived for over 100 million years despite continental drift and considerable change in climactic conditions by their choice of appropriate habitats.
    While fairly vicious and teratorial, the Tuatara cannot cope with predators such as rats, cats or dogs and none existed in its habitat until settlers from Polynesia arrived bringing their rats and dogs with them. Tuatara live in the wild on small offshore island wildlife reserves carefully kept free of predators, and in various institutions.
    If these fascinating creatures have survived for so long, how long have various types of lizard been extant around the globe?

  53. AEGeneral says: “… only to discover the rules of the English language had been re-written in order to accommodate the ignorant.
    I regret to have to tell you that you have it the wrong way round. The actual process, which is that lexicographers do not promote “correct” English but simply record actual usage, ensures that virtually all changes to the language are made by the ignorant.

  54. Anthony – Jack Jennings (aus) says you are coming to Aus.
    If you might have time to give a talk to a highly respected scientific organisation in NSW, please email me.
    [This comment should be in Contact. ~dbs, mod.]

  55. peat says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm
    I have been following the near surface temperature as measured by the satellite system overseen by Roy Spencer et al. http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ Worldwide near-surface temperatures have been remarkably high for the better part of a year, especially recently. I had supposed this to be an El Niño effect, but now I’m not so sure. It looks like Earth’s average temperature in 2010 could clobber the 1998 record. As a skeptic who figured temperatures would remain flat or trend downward as we enter the next decade, this has my attention. How long should it take for near-surface temperatures to return to normal after the El Niño finishes? However, from the first graph in this article, it appears that the Atlantic Ocean is having its own kind of strong El Niño event.

    Temperatures will fall as the El Nino fades and they will fall still further if a La Nina kicks in. ENSO fluctuations are the main reason why we get short-term flat or cooling trends in a long term underlying warming trend. The question, though, is this (and I’ve read Bob Tidsdale’s posts) – how much will temperatures fall. The 2007/08 La Nina was cold by recent standards but in the context of the longer term, it was the warmest La Nina in the UAH record. We’ve just experienced a fairly moderate El Nino but UAH temperatures have been rivalling those of 1998. There’s no evidence of a sustained long term fall in temepratutes despite the claimed effects of the PDO and weak solar activity. I keep hearing about thermal lag, but there was very little thermal lag in the 1940s or 197os when previous climate shifts occurred. A while back we were hearing about “cooling since 1998”. That’s gone quiet because it’s no longer true – surely a clear lesson in not relying on short term trends.
    By all means be sceptical about the more exaggerated effects of CO2, but be just as sceptical about some of the claims by some sceptics. I’m not knocking Steve Goddard’s post – just the interpretation of future temperature falls by some posters.

  56. Why not send out children in Green Police uniforms and let them paint the lizards white?
    Yes we can!

  57. Currently we in NZ are enjoying temps 3-4 degrees above normal with April similarly mild. The projection is for the warmer weather to continue throughout the winter at 3 degrees above normal with odd flurries of cold.
    I’ve got to go back to the mid 90s for a comparison to this.
    JC

  58. Lance says:
    May 13, 2010 at 10:39 pm

    Bunny,
    Ironically, you used the wrong spelling of “there”.

    Given the content, one has to hope that was deliberate.

  59. Sera 10:39pm
    “Iz their uh inneret cite four englisch teechers?”
    Yes. This is it. They come here to show us that they’re inlettigent, er, inettigelt, er, inglennitelt, er, brainy.

  60. Steve Goddard,
    Why all the positive SST anomalies in the SH? I would think higher than normal SH SST’s would produce warmer than normal air temperatures, and thus a warmner than normal winter for the SH.

  61. Steve,
    Thanks for the info, but without relating it to a context it is difficult for us non-experts to digest and assess. I mean, it would be nice if you could connect your promotion of the speculation about a descent into La Nina with Bob Tisdale’s comments on this site earlier in the month. Or perhaps the drop in upper OHC supports the speculation of La Nina? I wonder what are the real trends pushing the models to make their predictions of continuing positive ENSO (which has dropped back into the neutral range). On Wednesday BoM offered this: “Current conditions below the surface of the Pacific Ocean show large volumes of cooler than normal water, indicating that further cooling of the surface is likely.” What do you make of that?

  62. I recall awhile back Anthony citing history in cautioning us not to predict a La Nina later this year. Joe Bastardi, for example, predicts a significant one.
    I was wondering what Anthony thinks – without looking at history.

  63. AEGeneral: May 13, 2010 at 9:37 pm
    ‘be’ and ‘apostropes’ ??
    Are you sure about the reasons for your disqualification? (chuckle…)
    /dr.bill

  64. Ian L. McQueen says:
    May 13, 2010 at 8:27 pm
    PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word “it’s” means “it is”. The possessive of “it” is “its”. NO apostrophe.

    Here’s how to remember it: NEVER POSSESSIVE. (I.e., “it’s raincoat” should “never” be used. Just keep those two words in mind and you’ll fall into the right habit.)
    [Reply: See post @May 13, 2010 at 9:27 pm. ~dbs, mod.]

  65. Lest we forget: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/
    It will be interesting. I’ve been telling everyone that I think we will have a hot summer here in the southeast US, followed by an even colder winter than last year. I just have a gut feeling that this summer will be hot. Already May here in North Carolina has had several 90 F days. An early heat wave usually means a milder summer, but the 90 degree days didn’t last long. This is no heat wave, no records broken, just a lot of heat early on. My instinct tells me a hot summer. What is happening is a bunch of big ridges of high pressures from the south keep parking over the southeast. That means hot, humid, but no rain and few thunderstorms. The only plus is that such persistent high pressure keeps many Cape Verde storms away from land with the rest staying south going toward Mexico and Texas.
    My instinct also tells me a lot of named storms but not many really strong hurricanes. The ARGO buoys tells us that the ocean has less deep water heat. To sustain itself, a hurricane needs a lot of deep water heat. Weaker ones can intensify fast off surface water. But when they get strong they suck up a lot of water from the deep ocean. If there is less heat there, there is less of a chance of maintaining such strength. NOAA has become overzealous in naming storms because to the uneducated public, more names equals more active year. Most people don’t know about the Accumulated Cyclone Energy scale.
    Of course, I’m no meteorologist. But the above post had more scientific accuracy in it than most climatologist’s reports because I admitted I don’t know the answer. My post is full of opinion; to a scientist pinning for funding, opinion becomes gospel not to be questioned which always lays the blame for that opinion/gospel squarely at the feet of humans.

  66. dr.bill says:
    May 14, 2010 at 4:21 am
    AEGeneral: May 13, 2010 at 9:37 pm
    ‘be’ and ‘apostropes’ ??
    Are you sure about the reasons for your disqualification? (chuckle…)
    /dr.bill

    My mouth spells words much better than my fingers do. 😉

  67. One possibility that explains the overall global warmth (in high and low latitudes) whilst allowing for mid latitude cold is my previous proposition that a quiet sun results in a smaller energy flux from surface to space which thereby enhances the polar high pressure cells via a more negative pair of polar oscillations.
    Thus the quiet sun is partially offsetting the cooling effect of a generally negative PDO and where one gets a moderate or strong El Nino within a negative period of PDO then the quiet sun will compound and not offset the effect of that El Nino.
    Future variations on the theme will confirm or rebut what I say but it does indeed look like what we need to do to cover most climate (as opposed to weather) observations is recognise oceanic and solar influences as the primary climate drivers, then reverse the sign of the solar effect (active sun increases energy flux to space and quiet sun reduces it) and set the two influences against one another as they interplay over time and affect the latitudinal positions of the main cloud banks thereby changing global albedo and thus affecting solar input to the oceans.

  68. Don V says: “Looking at the area in the Pacific Ocean, just off of the west coast of equatorial South America where the El Nino condition is supposed to have been in full force and is shown to dwindle down, I note something that to me looks quite suspicious. Is it normal for a tight narrow line of heat anomaly to line up right on the equator and extend off of the coast of South America out into the Pacific for thousands of miles, almost like tracer fire from a gun? Is it normal for there to be such a narrow band of heat anomaly?
    I am not an expert in this at all, but it does seem that this might be quite normal. Maybe not quite such a thin line of anomaly, or maybe that’s simply because the El Nino is nearly over.
    A chart of the 1997/8 El Nino at its height is on page 4 here:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20060125.pdf
    A toy diagram showing the warm water being pushed across by trade winds is shown here:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weather-and-climate/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=enso
    Others more qualified than me may be able to give better information.

  69. “stevengoddard says:
    May 14, 2010 at 5:07 am
    My understanding is that in most of the ocean, SST anomalies relate to cloud cover and the amount of sunshine which hits the surface of the water.
    ENSO events have more to do with wind strength along the equator, and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America.
    http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/whatis.html
    I agree with this because it seems to me that there are two opposing forces involved.
    Firstly, variations from above as regards the latitudinal positions of the three main cloud bands which affects solar input to the oceans. As suggested above, solar activity levels appear to have a bearing on that.
    Secondly, variations from below as the oceans alter the rate at which energy is released to the air from the oceans.

  70. I’ve been watching this coming on and will be spending lots of my time this summer working on winterizing. It will be freaking cold if the Northern Pacific stays cold and we get a strong La Nina this winter. I want El Nino back.

  71. Irradiance versus wind. Under clear sky conditions, irradiance is easily and mathematically determined. The resting state of water under these conditions is that the top will warm. Under cloudy sky conditions, irradiance is easily and mathematically determined. The resting state of water under these conditions is that the top will stay warm. Therefore, the deciding factor is the wind pealing back the warm layer, allowing the cooler water that stays below to mix with the surface. In the equatorial Pacific, this occurs when the wind blows East to West.
    When the wind blows West to East we also get some mixing but only on the downslope of Kelvin waves.
    All due to wind.

  72. Re: KenB says: May 14, 2010 at 2:05 am
    Its high time that WUWT sponsored a Global dunces hat award for the nuttiest CAGW theory..

    My entry. Filter failures in cloud seeding ships will lead to viscous winters as brown algae alginates are blended with rainwater. Unofficial spokesperson for the cloud ships says they’re in talks with Ben & Jerrys for additional sponsorship opportunities.

  73. Clearly we need to combine the ensemble of climate model projections into an weighted average. Of course, we’ll tweak the weighting as we go along to match up with observations. By doing this, we will end up with excellent predictive skill.

  74. P.G., Isn’t the plural of “it,” “they?” Would you help out a bubba and please use “it” in its plural form as you described it in a sentence? It’s (the concept of a plural “it”) a little unclear for me, and as a writer I probably ought to know, well, it.
    Just so I’m not completely off-topic, thank you Steve for the article. Apparently predicting a seasonal event like El Nino two months out is not as easy as predicting global climate a century from now.

  75. Here’s an Australian SOI chart. This shows a quick change in SOI-heading for Nina?
    BTW Bob Tisdale’s bit about the Midoki Nino may be right-but what about a cooler,
    misplaced Neutral period sort of a La Nina Midoki?
    May be a stupid question, but I’m on my second Americano right now…

  76. Steve said:

    Most of the US had a miserably cold winter during the recently deceased El Niño. It is not pleasant to think what a cold La Niña winter might bring.

    I came across some plots of teleconnections suggesting that El Nino brings cool, wet weather to the southern US (like the snow in Texas!) and <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/images/cold.gif"La Nina brings dry, warm weather to the southern US. No significant relationship in the northern US, last winter there was almost certainly cold due to the strongly negative AO – which would also contribute to the cold in the south.
    So it looks like a La Nina might actually bring a warmer winter to the US, not a colder one!
    PS. that warm anomaly in the Atlantic off Africa is very noticable. Wonder what’s going on there?

  77. Stephen Wilde wrote, “ENSO events have more to do with wind strength along the equator, and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America.”
    The “and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America,” does not necessarily happen during El Nino Modoki/central Pacific El Nino events.

  78. John Finn: You wrote, “The 2007/08 La Nina was cold by recent standards but in the context of the longer term, it was the warmest La Nina in the UAH record. We’ve just experienced a fairly moderate El Nino but UAH temperatures have been rivalling those of 1998. ”
    The reason why TLT anomalies during this El Nino are approaching the levels experienced during the 1997/98 El Nino is due to the step change in the mid-to-high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere following the 1997/98 El Nino:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/06/rss-msu-tlt-time-latitude-plots.html
    Also discussed in this post:
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-temperatures-this-decade-will-be.html
    Regards

  79. Smokey says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:27 pm

    Ian L. McQueen says:
    “PUHLEEZE, everybody. The word ‘it’s means ‘it is’. The possessive of ‘it’ is ‘its’. NO apostrophe.”
    Agree, Ian. But it’s an uphill battle.
    Maybe this will help.

    Really simple people: All possessive pronouns do not contain the apostrophe. his, hers, ours, theirs, its. You wouldn’t put on apostrophe on theirs, don’t do it on its.

  80. Roger Carr says:
    May 13, 2010 at 11:28 pm
    davidmhoffer says: (May 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm) That is why I am calling for the replacement of both it’s and its with itz.
    It’s not logical, David. Its meaning changes without the apostrophe, and it’s a whole new game with.>>
    Really? Actually the spoked word, itz actual sound, is what conveys meaning. When the same sounds mean different words, our minds automaticaly choose the correct meaning in the context of the sentence. When you say “put it over there” to someone out loud, has anyone, ever, EVER stopped you and asked if you meant there, their or they’re?
    The spoken words it’s and its sound identical. In a spoken sentence meaning is derived from context. The need to differentiate the two in written form is of no more value than is insisting they be pronounced differently to ensure people know which one you mean when speaking out loud. Itz a technicality. I am betting that not everyone who reads this knows for certain if I should have said its a technicality or it’s a technicality, but I am betting that no one misunderstood me when I said itz a technicality.

  81. Al Marinaro says:
    May 13, 2010 at 11:18 pm
    “… Dare I say, favorable AMO/PDO SST phase couplets could come into play these next 5-10 years for central U.S. drought. If this occurs, dare I say watch out for scenarios in same places the dustbowl formed but not to the extent of the 1930′s because of better soil conservation practices.”
    _________________________________________________________________________
    Not if the idiots in Congress and the corporations buying the crops have anything to say about it. The newest idiocy is sterile bare earth strips instead of grass filter strips, and getting rid of trees and ponds that might harbor disease carrying wildlife. So we are back to the dustbowl era type landscape if the bill passes.
    Food Safety’s Scorched Earth Policy: http://ppjg.wordpress.com/2009/07/23/hr-2749-food-safety%E2%80%99s-scorched-earth-policy/

  82. The Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Content is falling rapidly into La Nina territory.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure3.gif
    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/xzmaps/
    The Trade Winds have picked up (blue means above-average west-east winds).
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ua850_c.gif
    Atmospheric Angular Momentum has moved into La Nina territory.
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltotaam.sig.90day.gif
    The SOI has moved into La Nina territory.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
    All of these track the ENSO very closely.
    I’ve got the Nino 3.4 being close to Zero in May (down from 0.7C in April and 1.82C in December 2009).
    http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/7098/ensovseuoha.png
    http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/488/tradesensoapril10.png
    http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2637/aamensoapril10.png
    http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3263/soiensoapril10.png

  83. Stu wrote:
    “PS. that warm anomaly in the Atlantic off Africa is very noticable. Wonder what’s going on there?”
    It is very intresting that North Atlantic is warmer than South Atlantic in NH spring below 200 m.
    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-temp-200-small-rundate=latest
    The major reasons for vertical currents at this depth is the salinity differences.
    That is probably also the answer for Stu´s question. The surface water is less saltier than it use to be. That may depend of less evaporation because less wind or different wind pattern.

  84. “P.G. Sharrow says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:21 pm
    When I was young and learning about such things ( 55 years ago).
    It is = it’s
    It in plural = its
    It in ownership = its’”
    That is certainly the way I was taught to write propper England, like what the Queen does.

  85. Wade says:
    May 14, 2010 at 5:03 am
    Lest we forget: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/history-suggests-dont-bet-on-la-nina-this-year/
    It will be interesting. I’ve been telling everyone that I think we will have a hot summer here in the southeast US, followed by an even colder winter than last year. I just have a gut feeling that this summer will be hot. Already May here in North Carolina has had several 90 F days. An early heat wave usually means a milder summer, but the 90 degree days didn’t last long. This is no heat wave, no records broken, just a lot of heat early on.
    __________________________________________________________________________
    Wade, I am also in NC. We just had 35F just a couple of days ago. Unfortunately the weather history for my location does not goes back past 2004 and no further (they – wunderunderground wiped the record)
    for May of 2004 there were 12 days of 90 to 94, 3 days of 95 to 97 and 2 days of 98F for a total of 17 days of 90F and above highs. Since then there has been TWO count them TWO days, 91F and 93F in 2007, of above 90 temps in May and two day of 91F so far this year. So compared to May of 2004 the weather for the last six years, during the solar minimum,has been very cool here in the middle of North Carolina.

  86. Gail, those new Ag policies are news to me, and will detrimental if a drought does initiate. Absolutely…
    Stu, you discuss La Nina in the Northern Plains as being Warmer then normal, with a tongue of Positive Temp anomalies for the winter. Yes, in general this is true, but look at the winter’s of 2007/2008 and 2008/2009. 07-08 was solidly La Nina, 08-09 had a borderline Weak La Nina (the atmospheric state said it was La Nina). Now, when you look at La Nina’s sorted by PDO phase, it becomes clear. Those typical La Nina anomalies (you mentioned) are more likely to occur during the Positive Phase of the PDO. While years in the -PDO phase La Nina’s are more like they were in the Late 40’s and 50’s (49-50, 50-51) , just look at 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 winters for example. This is one of the reason’s many including myself suspect next winter to be somewhat similiar in nature. This rings true, especially for the upper midwest / northern plains / and upper rockies area.

  87. “it’s been fun watching the women tennis players in madrid wearing long sleeves and pants in mid-may. ”
    Yeah. Most of the European cycling races have featured full body cover – and last night I watched a women’s beach volleyball match in China where the women were wearning their bikinies over long tops and bottoms. That’s the last straw.

  88. Steve M. from TN says:
    May 14, 2010 at 7:06 am
    Really simple people: All possessive pronouns do not contain the apostrophe. his, hers, ours, theirs, its. You wouldn’t put on apostrophe on theirs, don’t do it on its.

    Aagh! Don’t even suggest it!
    It’s probably too much to expect commenters to adhere to spelling rules, but may I pedantically suggest fixing the first sentence of the lead post?
    /Mr Lynn

  89. Yep, this El Nino is gone, and we may get a La Nina setting up…such is the nature of these cyclical climate events. Did you notice how warm the central and northern Atlantic are?

  90. Pamela Gray says:
    May 14, 2010 at 6:12 am
    “All due to wind”
    But not for the mixing of surface water with cold water below. Also, but not the main reason.
    The main reason is the divergenze due to the small effect of the Coriolis Force along the Equator (right to the north and to the south of it) when the wind blows from the East. That is the same reason for the upwelling along the west cost of N America and S America with northern winds in the first case and southern winds in the other.

  91. Apparently Gore saw this coming, purchasing a mansion in Southern California (Montecito) because it’s too cold in SF.

  92. “Bob Tisdale says:
    May 14, 2010 at 6:48 am
    Stephen Wilde wrote, “ENSO events have more to do with wind strength along the equator, and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America.”
    The “and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America,” does not necessarily happen during El Nino Modoki/central Pacific El Nino events.”
    Noted Bob but that was part of the quote from Steven Goddard and not my words.
    I’m noting what you say about the differences between ‘normal’ and Modoki El Ninos but haven’t yet formed any opinion as to why there is a difference or as to what the implications might be.

  93. You gotto agree that by all means a La Niña (A Girl) is better than el Nino (a Boy), She is cool, though a bit cold…

  94. R. Gates
    You see, the Gates of a positively warming up hell are kept wide open to welcome all of you Gaia believers. There isn’t any profiling down there, however you will miss all those Kool drinks you used to, they evaporate after you cross those gates.

  95. Stephen Wilde: You replied, “Noted Bob but that was part of the quote from Steven Goddard and not my words.”
    Sorry, Stephen. I’ll redirect the comment.

  96. R. Gates wrote: “Yep, this El Nino is gone, and we may get a La Nina setting up…such is the nature of these cyclical climate events. Did you notice how warm the central and northern Atlantic are?”
    Would you care to explain why they’re warm? Would you care to predict how long you expect the El Nino-induced variations in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic (which are what caused the recent rises in SST anomalies there) to linger? Or are you just pointing out the obvious?

  97. Les Francis says:
    May 13, 2010 at 7:55 pm
    [ … Sun is currently spotless, La Nina possibly developing, if one of those Iceland Volcanos erupts with a half decent ash and SO2 cloud into the stratosphere then you Northern hemisphere dwellers will need to get out the long johns. … ]
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Nah, not me, I’ll just toss another couple of tons of pellets into the bunker. After all the PR folk tell me it is carbon neutral (I wonder if it is heat neutral 😉 ).
    kdk33,
    I agree excellent news for the poor vanishing lizards. However, I might get to feeling sorry for my chickens and have to use a heat lamp as well as my waterer heater.

  98. Steve M. from TN says:
    May 14, 2010 at 7:06 am
    Really simple people: All possessive pronouns do not contain the apostrophe. his, hers, ours, theirs, its. You wouldn’t put on apostrophe on theirs, don’t do it on its.
    Aagh! Don’t even suggest it!
    It’s probably too much to expect commenters to adhere to spelling rules, but may I pedantically suggest fixing the first sentence of the lead post?
    /Mr Lynn

    While we’re at it: “All possessive pronouns do not contain the apostrophe.”
    This should be expressed as “No possessive pronouns contain the apostrophe”. All followed by a negative is grammatically clunky.

  99. Steve – That’s a very interesting graphic.
    Every part of the animation contains blobs which appear one day and dissapear the next. That aliasing – a sampling issue which has a nasty tendency to completely wreck data.
    I wouldn’t use this data.
    I’d like to see other temperature data at daily resolution too – I suspect they are all completely wrecked by aliasing.

  100. Is there a La Niña on the way? Most of the models said no in April, though it appears they may be already wrong – given that they forecast positive ENSO through the summer.

    Christ, is that funny! They can’t accurately predict a La Niña one month ahead, but they are supposed to be able to predict the climate 200 years ahead.
    I literally burst out laughing – the very first time I’ve done that here.
    I mean, it is not like ENSO is a bit player in climate, so if they don’t even know what THAT is doing, how in Yahweh’s name can they even pretend to know what the hell is going on?

  101. @ Enneagram May 14, 2010 at 11:39 am:

    An electromagnetic driven El Niño and La Niña:
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm

    The last graph on the link, entitled the longitude of the geomagnetic and Z-magnetic equators crossing (20-year steps), claims

    The above chart is reminiscent of the global temperature trend for the period

    It doesn’t do anything of the sort. Just like the Hockey Stick leaves out the LWA and the MWP, that graph is missing the 1860> and 1920> inclines in the global temperature. Yes, it does have the 1940-1970 decline and the 1980-1998 incline. But prior to that it misses the mark. It is in that regard like the CO2-vs-temp graphs that miss the fact that the 1940-1970 decline occurred right in the middle of the industrial era CO2 incline.

  102. I have no idea why that chart link didn’t make it in to my earlier post-the site’s on my other computer, I will try again-grrrr….

  103. @Bob Tisdale May 14, 2010 at 6:48 am:

    Stephen Wilde wrote, “ENSO events have more to do with wind strength along the equator, and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America.”
    The “and whether or not cold water is upwelling along the west coast of South America,” does not necessarily happen during El Nino Modoki/central Pacific El Nino events.

    Bob – A question:
    Is everyone certain that the winds are a causative agent in all this? My take on winds from school was always that the winds were at the tail end of the wagging tail.
    Just as in the recent post here about G&T’s greenhouse paper it was asserted that the GROUND heats the air, not the other way around, I’ve always understood that the wind currents are a resultant of the heating of the land and water (and the rotation of the Earth).
    So my understanding of El Niño has always been in the direction of, “What is happening in the deep ocean that is bringing all this heat up?”
    ESPECIALLY as the El Niño occurs in the area with the Doldrums, where typically the winds are vertical, not horizontal.
    Evidently I am out of phase with the current thinking, but I’ll be damned if the logic doesn’t seem backward. I just can’t see surface winds pushing the ocean around at anything less than a few meters. (This may be what comes from trying to be a self-didact.)
    And may I humbly ask that you not point me at some “scientific” web links? After AGW, my confidence in such links isn’t all that high. Learning by rote or by diktat have no allure for me; if it’s something I can’t logically register, I put it on some back burner until I collect enough information to put it together myself. Maybe a brief explanation as to where the holes are in my thinking would do, and maybe educate folks here, too. (But most here probably already know the logic behind all this.)

  104. @ Pamela Gray May 14, 2010 at 6:12 am:

    Irradiance versus wind. Under clear sky conditions, irradiance is easily and mathematically determined. The resting state of water under these conditions is that the top will warm. Under cloudy sky conditions, irradiance is easily and mathematically determined. The resting state of water under these conditions is that the top will stay warm. Therefore, the deciding factor is the wind pealing back the warm layer, allowing the cooler water that stays below to mix with the surface. In the equatorial Pacific, this occurs when the wind blows East to West.
    When the wind blows West to East we also get some mixing but only on the downslope of Kelvin waves.
    All due to wind.

    Pamela, do you know what the depth is of the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific where the El Niño forms?
    This wind peeling” (not “pealing”) the surface waters off – this happens over hundreds of miles? Isn’t that a lot of water to skim off without turbulent mixing long before the warm water layer is deposited outside the area?
    This may happen when the thermocline is millimeters below the surface in a localized area, but is it a reality when the thermocline is several meters deep and over hundreds and hundreds of miles?
    And, as I asked Bob Tsidale just above, isn’t El Niño formed in areas where the Doldrums predominate (the Intertropical Convergence Zone), meaning the horizontal winds are at a minimum? If the Doldrums can’t move sailboats, how do they move all those cubic kilometers of warm surface water?
    I am having trouble meshing all this into a coherent system in my mind’s eye. There are some conflicts of what I understand as reality.

  105. @CRS, Dr.P.H. May 13, 2010 at 9:46 pm:

    In Chicago, our winters are both vicious AND viscous! This last one was downright nasty, sound like that applied for much of the US.
    It’s (it has) been very cold & cloudy in Chicago lately, quite unseasonal…

    I love in the Chicago area, too, and would want to inform the other readers here that almost the whole year has been colder than normal (anecdotally speaking, anyway), until a recent period of about 10 days, when it has been warmer than usual. (I was expecting the warmers to come out with their sky helmets to protect them against the falling sky, but that didn’t happen, maybe thanks to Climategate.)
    And, though it was colder than most recent winters, I didn’t think the past winter was anything outside our standard deviation. Except in early-to-mid December, there were essentially none of the below zero (F) days – not that I experienced, anyway, in the far NW burbs.

  106. stevengoddard says:
    May 14, 2010 at 5:01 am
    John Finn
    I think there is something wrong with the satellite temperatures. Had-Crut isn’t out yet for April, but through March – 2010 has been #5 after 2002, 1998, 2004 and 2007. Similar story for GISS.
    Satellites seem to wildly exaggerate El Nino events.
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1978/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1978/normalise

    Hang on a minute, Steve. You’re now complaining that satellite temperatures don’t agree with the surface temperatures. But I thought the surface temperature records couldn’t be trusted because of the various problems which are discussed with great regularity on this blog. I hope you remember this when satellite temperatures dip while GISS/Hadley temperatures remain high – as will happen at some point.
    The truth of the matter is that there are, more often than not, good reasons why there are discrepancies (sometimes large ones) between the various datasets. ENSO being one. Despite this, the 4 main datasets have been remarkably similar particularly over the past 20 years.

  107. Patrick Davis says:
    May 14, 2010 at 8:11 am
    “P.G. Sharrow says:
    May 13, 2010 at 9:21 pm
    When I was young and learning about such things ( 55 years ago).
    It is = it’s
    It in plural = its
    It in ownership = its’”
    Sorry. No such word as its’.
    IanM

  108. JC (May 14 3.28a.m.)
    in my part of N.Z. we haven’t seen any mountain snowfalls (in the Tararua and Ruahine Ranges) as yet. With a few exceptions where I have lost the data, I have kept verygood records of the mountain snowfalls here as seen from the Manawatu plains since 1980. The latest arrival of snow since 1980 was on June 13th 2003, and June 10th 2007.
    2003 was notable in that there was only one severe snow event at the beginning of July which saw snow down to 100m above S.L. around the Manawatu Gorge, and almost in Palmerston North. It also shares with this year the dietinction of having the only frost in the official summer period (between the Dec Solstice and the March Equinox) in the past 56 years. The rest of the 2003 winter had few, and mainly weak snowfalls compared to normal. In 2007 the snowfall numbers were close to avaerage but the severity was well below average.
    Despite the current warmth in New Zealand the recent “Southern Hot Period,” (Nov 6th-May 5th) ranks as the 19th coldest for the Manawatu region in the past 56 years, based on the mean of the daily temperature maxima (T-Max) over the ‘hot season.’ I use T-Max from the data because us lay people relate more to T-Max than the daily mean. I politely suggest that if you ask anyone on the street what the mean temperature for the day was then you would most likely get a blank stare! Ask the same people how hot the previous day was and you are more likely to get an accurate answer. Anthony and the other meteorologists are probably laughing and will have many good reasons not to use just T-Max as an indicator. So be it. This is the path that I chose.
    As can be seen from the postings regarding this and several dozen others on this site, there is more to understanding the climate than just temperatures alone. Temperatures are just a symptom or indicator of ‘how’ we are going but in themselves don’t explain ‘why’ we are going the way we are. Every season north or south seems to through up unexpected surprises. One thing that I have found since I have gained access to more data is the obvious natural variabilty seen here in my lifetime (53 years), and no trend towards warming or cooling either way.
    Cheers
    Coops

  109. Bob Tisdale says:
    May 14, 2010 at 1:44 pm
    R. Gates wrote: “Yep, this El Nino is gone, and we may get a La Nina setting up…such is the nature of these cyclical climate events. Did you notice how warm the central and northern Atlantic are?”
    Would you care to explain why they’re warm? Would you care to predict how long you expect the El Nino-induced variations in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic (which are what caused the recent rises in SST anomalies there) to linger? Or are you just pointing out the obvious?

    You are asking something of him that he likely doesn’t understand.

  110. R. Gates says:
    May 14, 2010 at 10:12 am
    Yep, this El Nino is gone, and we may get a La Nina setting up…such is the nature of these cyclical climate events. Did you notice how warm the central and northern Atlantic are?
    Is that caused by manmade co2?

  111. Bill Illis says:
    May 14, 2010 at 7:29 am
    I appreciate your graphs very much Mr. Illis.
    So would you be of the opinion, because of those graphs, that this cooling will soon show in land temperature stations? I can’t know what you’d say to that unless I ask.

  112. I have noticed before that LT temps tend to go up more in El Ninos than surface temps. I see no reason to believe that in this case anyone is fiddling the data, but am always ready to be persuaded by evidence. But if that is indeed the real data there must be a mechanism. Seems to me that if there’s a burst of warmer-than-usual air from an El Nino it might push further up into the troposphere – as well as spreading horizontally as usual – thus affecting LT temps more than surface temps. Incidentally, I think more-than-usual CO2 goes with it [but more work needed before I can substantiate that].
    Anyway, until someone shows this particular data is unreliable, isn’t it what we have to work with?
    Feet2theFire – re ENSO and winds: What I assume happens is that in an El Nino warm water (driver unknown) rises in the ocean, and after that its warmth is distributed by winds which may or may not themselves be influenced by the El Nino and/or whatever drives El Nino. And of course the water at the surface may be moved by the winds too. Although there is a change of wind pattern associated with an El Nino, it does not appear to be the main cause. I am not at all an expert in this, so would be happy to be corrected.

  113. Mike Jonas says:
    May 14, 2010 at 8:28 pm
    “Although there is a change of wind pattern associated with an El Nino, it does not appear to be the main cause. ”
    Would not warm water rising cause thermal expansion, which in turn produces air movement?

  114. Bob Tisdale says:
    May 14, 2010 at 1:43 am
    Amino Acids in Meteorites: Thanks for the links to Joe Bastardi’s forecasts. He keeps mentioning a cold PDO, but the PDO is positive:
    I don’t think he’s talking about a given day right now but instead in general over the next ~30 years.
    see this video
    http://www.accuweather.com/video/41870064001/is-the-earth-cooling-or-is-the-data-just-fooling.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
    I think us “skeptics”, or whatever we are called, pay closer attention to the wording of what “skeptics” are saying than global warming believers do.

  115. stevengoddard says:
    May 14, 2010 at 7:48 pm
    John Finn
    I quote GISS temperatures all the time. Other writers may have different opinions. This is not a Borg.
    Resistance is not futile.

  116. Les Francis says:
    May 13, 2010 at 7:55 pm

    Joe Bastardi has been predicting this over at Accuweather.

    Les,
    You took the words right out of my keyboard.
    You are absolutely correct. Joe Bastardi has been calling for this change in the climate. He was looking for a drop off in temp later on in the summer, a big drop.
    We all await further developments.

  117. Feet2theFire: Regarding the doldrums, the winds being discussed in the quote from Steve Goddard (not Stephen Wilde, my mistake in the attribution), “ENSO events have more to do with wind strength along the equator…” are the trade winds, and as you are aware, don’t necessarily occur along the equator. During La Nina and ENSO-neutral phases, the trade winds push warm surface water west where it collects in the Pacific Warm Pool to depths of 300 meters. When the trade winds relax, the warm water sloshes east, and that’s the El Nino. The “along the equator” would be better written as “in the tropical Pacific”.

  118. Bob Tisdale says:
    May 15, 2010 at 6:23 am
    Ok. But I didn’t see him mention 60 years.
    But I do understand your point.

  119. Sera – I didn’t express that very well. I meant “Although there is a change of wind pattern associated with an El Nino, it (the wind pattern) does not appear to be the main cause (of the El Nino). ”
    Bob Tisdale would know much more about this than I do, and says that winds are a causal factor for El Nino. (In my defence: please note that I have stated exlicitly “I am not an expert in this at all” and “Others more qualified than me may be able to give better information.“)
    I am not yet convinced that winds are the main cause of El Nino. I suspect that some other factor may be influencing both. Bob Tisdale states in his website
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/03/is-there-60-year-pacific-decadal.html
    that “there is also no evidence of a persistent 60-year PDO cycle“.
    The graph from Shen, C., W.-C. Wang, W. Gong, and Z. Hao. 2006 in the same item
    http://i43.tinypic.com/2j16iwx.png
    actually looks to me like evidence that there is a persistent cycle (NB. “evidence” not “proof”).
    I have downloaded global temperatures for the period available (from 1850), and certainly in this limited period there appears to be an approximate 60-year cycle which I understand dovetails nicely with the PDO.
    http://members.westnet.com.au/jonas1/GlobalTemperature_PDOPhaseTrends.JPG
    The pale blue line segments are least-squares fit by both time and temperature.
    Note that the duration of the segments varies; it’s not precisely an N-year cycle.

  120. Mike Jonas: You wrote, “The graph from Shen, C., W.-C. Wang, W. Gong, and Z. Hao. 2006 in the same item
    http://i43.tinypic.com/2j16iwx.png
    actually looks to me like evidence that there is a persistent cycle (NB. “evidence” not “proof”).”
    But is it a 60-year cycle? No.
    You wrote, “Bob Tisdale would know much more about this than I do, and says that winds are a causal factor for El Nino.”
    ENSO is an ocean-atmosphere coupled process. Bill Kessler/NOAA explains ot well:
    http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html#q1

  121. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    May 14, 2010 at 11:59 pm
    “….I think us “skeptics”, or whatever we are called, pay closer attention to the wording of what “skeptics” are saying than global warming believers do.”
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Isn’t that an integral part of what being a “skeptic” is? If you do not pay close attention to what is said, how can you understand/learn?
    I know I will often reread and look up terms when I am following a discussion on this site.

  122. davidmhoffer
    “When the same sounds mean different words, our minds automaticaly [sic]choose the correct meaning in the context of the sentence. ”
    Dave, Dave, Dave… Construe this:
    ‘Mann points to the earth’s warming, but the record shows [its] cooling.’
    Phonetic [its] is ambiguous; speaker may intend either possessive pronoun or contraction of ‘it is.’ Literary conventions are rarely without some usefulness.

  123. 50 and 60 watts/m2 of extra heat held in is a very big number. Doubled Co2 is only supposed to be result in 3.7 watts.

    your own linkshows that the 50 to 60 watts/m2 were reached during a few days in February-March 2010, in the 10 S 10 N and 180 W 150 W region only (Pacific). The yearly average anomaly in watts/m2 in that region is much smaller. How can you compare this with a sustained 2xCO2-forcing of 3.7 watts all over the land-ocean-world (which would translate in a global warming of 1.1°C according to the IPCC)? It’s apples and oranges. But your point suggests there is an addtional heat bild-up in the equatorial Atlantic right now. This seems to me a more interesting observation of yours, which hopefully ^does not mean the development of too many severe storms in the northern Atlantic region (see Joe Bastardi).

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