By Steve Goddard
El Niño made it’s last gasp this week. Note that SST’s in the equatorial Pacific went from above normal to below normal during the past few days.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/plots.php
Is there a La Niña on the way? Most of the models said no in April, though it appears they may be already wrong – given that they forecast positive ENSO through the summer. Two models forecast a very strong La Niña.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
The last El Niño to La Niña transition occurred in 2007, and caused a sharp drop in GISS global temperatures.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2006.9/to:2008.1
Most of the US had a miserably cold winter during the recently deceased El Niño. It is not pleasant to think what a cold La Niña winter might bring.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_userdate&daterange=DJF&year=10
Here was my prediction from February, 2010 :
Flashback to 2007 – SST To Plunge Again?
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davidmhoffer says:
May 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm
…
I also dispute your assertion that everyong on this blog is intelligent. Itz obvious from my posts if not others that this isn’t true.
I was about to post something intelligent, but I was stumped by what to write…
… Fridays…
I have been following the near surface temperature as measured by the satellite system overseen by Roy Spencer et al. http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ Worldwide near-surface temperatures have been remarkably high for the better part of a year, especially recently. I had supposed this to be an El Niño effect, but now I’m not so sure. It looks like Earth’s average temperature in 2010 could clobber the 1998 record. As a skeptic who figured temperatures would remain flat or trend downward as we enter the next decade, this has my attention. How long should it take for near-surface temperatures to return to normal after the El Niño finishes? However, from the first graph in this article, it appears that the Atlantic Ocean is having its own kind of strong El Niño event.
P.G. Sharrow, davidmhoffer, Smokey, Ian L McQueen:
I believe the plural of ‘it’ would be ‘they.’ Unless it’s an object; then you get ‘them.’
In any case, President Jackson was right–it’s a @ur momisugly#$ poor mind can think of but one way to spell a word.
vigilantfish says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
vicious = nasty, depraved
Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.
——
REPLY: In Chicago, our winters are both vicious AND viscous! This last one was downright nasty, sound like that applied for much of the US.
It’s (it has) been very cold & cloudy in Chicago lately, quite unseasonal…
Joe Bastardi said El Nino would quickly end and La Nina will start. He also says the U.S. will have a big hurricane season this year
4:34 video
http://www.accuweather.com/video/83060117001/sink-o-de-nino-the-rapid-collapse-of-el-nino.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
vigilantfish says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
vicious = nasty, depraved
Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.
+++++
You’ve obviously never tried to walk across a Minnesota parking lot in February.
more from Joe Bastardi, models from Japanese agency sees cooling coming:
4:16 video
http://www.accuweather.com/video/78278083001/another-climate-model-sees-the-global-cooling.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
To: P.G. Sharrow
You wrote “and if you need a ‘ to determine which is which, you must be dumber then a fence post.”
I’m sure it was just a typo, but when making comparisons, you use “than” not “then.” It is easy to remember which one to use: compare has an “a” so does “than.”
I think it is hereditary, as my Mother and my sister both use the wrong word.
{ps: Hope I didn’t misspell anything}
one last video from Joe Bastardi, models showing cooling in the upcoming year, going into negative anomaly:
5:05 video
http://www.accuweather.com/video/77802778001/the-cfs-is-seeing-global-cooling.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
Why are all the spelling and grammar experts out today? Is their a school teacher picnic day somewhere?
vigilantfish says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
Molasses in winter can be described as both. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Molasses_Disaster Colorado, too.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1310&dat=19900217&id=zG4VAAAAIBAJ&sjid=huoDAAAAIBAJ&pg=4922,3790598
The 2nd link also has a story about a new (1990) El Nino.
re Smokey May 13, 2010 at 9:27 pm
Oh brother! lolrof! How do you come up with those so fast?
I thought I had a great response to Ian and just threw it away, cant follow that act.
I was hoping for a viscous winter this year, but all we got in the Willamette Valley was rain.
Does the incipient La Niña mean we’ll have a viscous or a rainy summer, or will it be mild and dry? It’s something I’d really like to know. Summer’s always better when its weather is mild.
How’d I do?
😉
So the weather boys, Anthony and Joe, see cooling coming. And they’ve both been right in the past. Check their record. Oh ya, that’s right, weather is not climate. And it’s true. In this case weather is more accurate!
vigilantfish says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:04 pm
“viscous = thick and gelatinous liquid
vicious = nasty, depraved
Northern winters and hurricanes can be described as the latter, not the former.”
With the oil floating on the surface of the ocean right where hurricanes are likely to soak up their moisture from, the former may be more correct for coming hurricanes.
Bunny,
Ironically, you used the wrong spelling of “there”.
Iz their uh inneret cite four englisch teechers?
Its, It’s, Its’
Blame it on spell checker. Apparently Spell Checker was a U.S. Fulbright Scholar who went to Oxford tried to read English and then got confused.
Color, colour, etc etc etc
This represents a major change, with worldwide climate repercussions.
Let’s send a pair of scientists with impeccable credentials to conduct on site measurements. I’m sure that Mann and Hansen would do fine field work measuring the ocean temp first hand. Just set ’em out to the mid-Pacific in a well-stocked dinghy (just pitch it as a tropical Pacific cruise and they’ll jump at the chance).
twawki says:
May 13, 2010 at 9:28 pm
When it rains, it pours.
Actually, a Nino or Nina event is official when at least 5 consecutive trimonthly periods with anomaly’s of 0.5C or More for El Nino, and -0.5C or less for La Nina occur. But, Sensible Weather practice shows us Nino/Nina patterns can show up with different configurations and time scales and should be treated as thus. For Example, Nino Region 3.4 Temps can be 0.3C (Below the 0.5C anomaly threshold) but the or MJO/GLAAM phase/stage pattern can put the atmospheric state into a Nino mode. The same can be said for some other Nina/Nino scenarios. Certain elements in the Pacific can actual enhance these patterns as well (EPO/PNA blocking over NPAC, or the PDO phase). I like others ,do believe this coming Winter for the Northern Tier of the United States could be another blockbuster. Dare I say, favorable AMO/PDO SST phase couplets could come into play these next 5-10 years for central U.S. drought. If this occurs, dare I say watch out for scenarios in same places the dustbowl formed but not to the extent of the 1930’s because of better soil conservation practices.
@peat
“It looks like Earth’s average temperature in 2010 could clobber the 1998 record.”
That’s not how amsutemps daily look like. You can’t compare, there was no daily record in 1998. Just check the monthly data here.
And just click all the links in this comment thread and read and read and read. You will see that 2010 is very unlikely to beat 1998. There is not enough ocean heat. La Nina keeps coming back sooner than expected.
davidmhoffer says: (May 13, 2010 at 8:52 pm) That is why I am calling for the replacement of both it’s and its with itz.
It’s not logical, David. Its meaning changes without the apostrophe, and it’s a whole new game with.
One simply cannot write: it is meaning changes unless English is one’s second, and only recently aquired, language, and the meaning of one’s words is not very important at all — or you just cant, um, cannot (or mebbe can’t) help it because you dont know…
@peat
You can’t compare AMSU with 1998. No daily data then. Better look at the monthly figures here.
La Nina keeps coming back sooner than expected by the models, because there is not enough heat flux from the oceans. Just click at all the links in this comment thread or here. Ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific turned even negativ. All the “heat” is gone.
Lance,
It was deliberate. I also included several other spelling mistakes which unfortunately were corrected (by spellcheck/mods?). My point, not well made obviously, is that there are more important issues than an odd spelling or grammar error.