From the “weather is not climate” department.
By Steven Goddard
I noticed something interesting in the NCEP forecast for the coming week. Temperatures are predicted to be below normal across a 7,000 mile swath of the Americas. That is more than one fourth of the way around the earth. Below is a composite image of generated from three of the NCEP maps.
Looks like another cold soccer Saturday, across the entire US. Of course there are other places on the Earth that will have above normal temperatures, but this seemed noteworthy for the dual hemispheric scope, even it is just “weather”.
Here’s the USA forecast to May 6th. Note that much of the West will be well below normal with neutral to slightly above normal in the East:
And South America:
Source: NCEP forecast page.
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Please no grousing about the USA being in °F and South America being in °C. That’s the way NCEP provides the maps. – Anthony
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Tucson will end the month with no ninety degree days. The average first ninety degree day is April 10 although in the last thirty years it has been April 3.
Ian W says:
April 28, 2010 at 7:51 pm
The cold may well be due to the cold sea surface temperatures .
The North Pacific is cold, from Japan all the way over to California. Doesn’t matter whether it’s storming or not, the air coming in has a real bite to it.
MarkB says:
April 28, 2010 at 6:08 pm
“Here in Boston, the TV weatherman just said that this will be one of the warmest Marches ever, even with the current below-average temps. So what’s the point? You could pick out somewhere in the world every day that is “below average.” The pettiness of this sort of post just makes AGW skeptics look bad.”
==================================
And I’ll ask you: What’s YOUR point?
Big F-ing deal about the warmest March “ever” in Boston.
New England caught the tail of that massive positive height anomaly that dominated in the atmosphere over northeastern Canada this winter, shunting the cold air to the south.
Chris
Norfolk, Virginia, USA
Long time locals here in the eastern sierra (Mono County) say that this is the first time in 45 years that area lakes at 8000 feet have been frozen this late in the season. It is estimated that Mammoth Mountain got another 2 feet of snow over the crest the past 36 hours and it is still snowing! Current temp in town at 9:50 pm Wednesday is 20 degrees! have another 8 inches on the deck at 8200 foot level.
The freak event is this british exibitionist being given any credibility by anyone .The sciency nature of his exploration? I missed the daily postings of ,we are in the arctic and its so cold, that gave this guy such credibility last year. I had hoped this year fish and feathers would charge them with illegally feeding the bears, but they are not off the ice yet.What about illegal baiting of the bears?That goofy ice base just teasing the polar bears.
Still cannot understand why AMSU-A shows a positive temperature anomaly of 0.87 degrees F at near surface level when all the indications are cooling around the globe. There must be some heat somewhere to produce the warmth anomaly.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
Anyone with information which can clarify this discrepancy between what I can read in this thread and the Satellite readings?
Here in Tokyo we are ending April with only a handful of days above 20 degrees C for the year. We had our last snowfall on the 15th of the month and more than a few days during the month that qualified as bona fide January winter days.
We were supposed to make up our weather-cancelled Saturday soccer match today, and instead woke up to an unforecasted blizzard.
Our winter started in early October, and is still going strong almost seven months later.
A damaging frost here this morning in rural western MD — low 27F (-3C). I’m in a frost hollow, so nothing unusual — frosts in May here are common. But nobody around here plants anything frost-sensitive until after mid-May.
Larches and Dawn redwoods here leafed out weeks ago, but their new foliage withstands frosts quite well. Other trees are much more susceptible.
Heavy snow forecast for Arizona on the last day of April.
http://www.weatherstreet.com/data/SPC_030.jpg
A beautiful spring day on the CSU campus
http://www.dickgilbert.com/colocam-ftcollins2.htm
stevengoddard says:
April 29, 2010 at 5:07 am
Steve, you beat me to it. My wife and I woke up to find several inches of
global warmingclimate change outside with more still falling! No biking into work/school for us today. Yesterday was a fairly warm day (well, so I was told…I work in a basement at CSU), but today (and the first half of the week) more than makes up for it.And I remember that frigid start to October…I ran the CSU Homecoming 5k in that crap. I had no idea I’d be running in 16F weather with snow/ice!
-Scott
Pamela Gray says:
April 28, 2010 at 6:29 pm
Pamela:
Everyone knows that food comes from the food factory, neatly wrapped, safety sealed and packed, ready for the shelves of your nearest mega-super. Sometimes I’m tempted to ask my students “Where do buffalo wings come from?”…. but I’m afraid of what the answers might be.
Gee, thanks Steven. I’m in the darkest blue island in west central Colorado, looking out at 7″ of new snow with an alleged ten hours of precip. to go. If the NCEP predictions are anything like the ones from the NWS last fall for the most recent winter, I can expect temperatures 15°F above normal. Only kidding, as this is only a week out and looks on track so far. I’m grateful to not have changed my studded snow tires yet!
I just noticed something a little odd on the AMSU-A temperature graph, one can only select Y-axis as degrees Celsius or Kelvin, yet the little message about the anomaly for the most recent day is °F. Just another annoying little thing, someone likes .87°F (which is not relevant to the data being displayed) better than .48°C.
The report for Sherman Pass in Washington
“Temperature: 32ºF / 0ºC
Elevation: 5575 ft / 1699 m
Restrictions EastBound:
Traction Tires Advised, Oversize Vehicles Prohibited.
Restrictions WestBound:
Traction Tires Advised, Oversize Vehicles Prohibited.
Conditions:
Compact snow and ice on the roadway. Pass is Open. Seasonal weather reports have ended. Should an incident or adverse weather that affects travel occur, updates will be provided as soon as possible.
Weather:
Snowing”
I like the bit about ‘seasonal weather reports have ended’…I.E. Winter is supposed to be over.
I flew from Denver to Phoenix on October 11. It was 18F when I left Denver and 88F in Phoenix when I landed. The hotel shuttle driver wanted to turn the air conditioning on, and I asked him not to.
18 degrees at the beginning of October? That is supposed to be the nicest time of year in Colorado. Some global warming ……
20F at my house this morning.
since global warming has started making spring come earlier i have moved my annual spring climbing trip from april to may, since april has been to cold. now it looks like even the second week of may will be too early.
#
MarkB says:
April 28, 2010 at 6:08 pm
” So what’s the point? You could pick out somewhere in the world every day that is “below average.” The pettiness of this sort of post just makes AGW skeptics look bad.”
There is no point, I guess, just a group of people making all they
kind of a dogm (‘No AGW’) that is sinking fast. All this concentration
on the bad guys, Jones, Mann, Trenberth. Don’t you realize that hundreds
of articles appear each year, written by people you never heard of, which add
important information to all aspects of climate change.
I am of course not saying that everything is ‘pro’ AGW, but it is
relevant stuff.
At least spaceweather.com is now calling micro-sunspots for what they are.
Manatee cold deaths have way more than quadrupled since any winter since 1974.
… As of March 19, biologists with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s (FWC) Fish and Wildlife Research Institute (FWRI) have documented 431 manatee carcasses in state waters so far in 2010. This preliminary data indicates that in just three months, the number of manatee deaths has exceeded the highest number on record for an entire calendar year, which was 429 in 2009. The cause of death for the majority of these animals is cold stress.
The “cold-stress” category accounts for 222 documented manatee carcasses; however, it is likely the cold temperatures also contributed to many of the 108 deaths in the “undetermined” category and the 64 deaths in the “unrecovered” category…
Took this picture riding my bike this morning
http://docs.google.com/View?id=ddw82wws_623dfq4fwhm
They’ve revised the continental U.S. so that Illinois is going to be above average instead of below average.
Awful lot of BLUE on all those maps!
Canada too.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2965361
CALGARY — A potentially record-setting snowstorm that’s battering Calgary temporarily knocked out power for about 43,000 households.
We’ve been skiing powder for the last 10 days here in the N. Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado. A new storm is dumping snow on Breckenridge right now. We should have another foot by Friday morning. The current Winter started on 21 Sept. 2009 with the first measurable and lasting snow; that’s more than seven months of winter, not abnormal for this region/altitude, but definitely no warming here. It’s cold and wintry!
So far, I do not think we have had any of the real summer-like days in the Puget Sound area that we usually get by this time. Just for reference here is a link to the East Pacific MM5 computer forecast loop for the next few days:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_slp+///3
This appears to be a color-coded, animated map showing temperature, pressure, and winds over the East Pacific and the U.S. West Coast as predicted for the next 99 hours in 3 hr steps. My apologies if this tries to embed here as an image.