From the “weather is not climate” department.
By Steven Goddard
I noticed something interesting in the NCEP forecast for the coming week. Temperatures are predicted to be below normal across a 7,000 mile swath of the Americas. That is more than one fourth of the way around the earth. Below is a composite image of generated from three of the NCEP maps.
Looks like another cold soccer Saturday, across the entire US. Of course there are other places on the Earth that will have above normal temperatures, but this seemed noteworthy for the dual hemispheric scope, even it is just “weather”.
Here’s the USA forecast to May 6th. Note that much of the West will be well below normal with neutral to slightly above normal in the East:
And South America:
Source: NCEP forecast page.
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Please no grousing about the USA being in °F and South America being in °C. That’s the way NCEP provides the maps. – Anthony
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Justa Joe says:
April 28, 2010 at 2:03 pm
It’s been darn cold in the Reno – Tahoe area for the entirety of 2011.
Uhhh… did I just do a Rip Van Winkle? I coulda sworn it was still 1967….
Hi, Anthony,
The map showing warming in northern, central and south part of Argentina is wrong. Utterly wrong. You can check the forecast for the central part of the country in: Pilar where it shows temperature to be at the absolutely normal level: maximum of 27ºC for saturday and minimum of 11ºC for tomorrow (3ºC below normal) and 17 – 18ºC for the rest of week, hitting the bullseye of normal temps.
In Bariloche, Patagonia, we’ll have temperatures ranging from 2ºC to -1ºC, way below normal for the time of year, and highs of 6 to 10ºC, also quite below normal. See: >a href=”http://www.infoclima.com/pronosticos/argentina/rio-negro/?l=40″>Bariloche
I am sorry. Correct link to Bariloche forecast: Bariloche
UAH global anomaly is still very high, though. But I wouldn’t be surprised if anomalies drop significantly over the next few months.
We are back to chains again. Most of us have taken off our snow tires (by law) but anyone going over Meacham or Tollgate in the Blue Mountains of NE Oregon last night came down the other side praying they would make it through without sliding off the snow covered winding roads. This will kill spring wheat on the upper slopes and could damage emerging winter wheat as well. The roads have cleared for now but tonight will likely bring another blast of snow.
I don’t think weather has any relevance to climate
starzmom says:
April 28, 2010 at 1:39 pm
Is the CRU that provided the monthly climate averages the same CRU that has had such issues over their data? Just asking.
Yes, but Phil Jones early work did not have the issues that befell it before getting associated with the wrong crowd.
And I believe he released that data. The globe is cooling even compared with Phil’s good data sets.
That’s really saying something.
Frank says:
April 28, 2010 at 2:18 pm
13 days of spotless sun. interesting correlation.
13 days of a spotless sun, with lots of white-light facula producing Active Regions.
What that does, I cannot say. But, if it does something to the climate somehow, it’s interesting bad news.
Brrrr!!!!
It seems this gonna be OK; it looks like they are using lunar phases for weather changes which is OK. (May 6th). If models don´t work it´s time to get back to traditional knowledge….just in case.
Robert E. Phelan says:
April 28, 2010 at 2:43 pm
Justa Joe says:
April 28, 2010 at 2:03 pm
It’s been darn cold in the Reno – Tahoe area for the entirety of 2011.
Uhhh… did I just do a Rip Van Winkle? I coulda sworn it was still 1967….
You caught my typo. I meant to say 2010, and I should add ‘thus far’.
Well, here in the Northwest, the forecast is highs in the mid/high 50’s and lows in the mid/low 40’s. Guess I’ll have to light the fireplace and find a bottle of Pinot. Shucks.
We got hammered in northern Vermont last night by more than a foot of scientific hot air. Unfortunately we changed to summer tires last week with all of the talk of global warming and I almost lost my new car having made it through another Vermont winter without an accident. After I went in the ditch the second time and getting out to survey the damage I could barely stand on the white stuff without falling down. The tow truck slid all over the road coming uphill in four-wheel drive. The tow operator even had a hard time keeping his truck from sliding as he winched me out. The good news is that after sliding sideways past the guardrail, driving over and under downed trees, and getting winched out of the brook my new car did not have a scratch. That scientific hot air sure is slippery though.
Dagon, you are joking, yes? Otherwise we apparently need to throw out what farmers understand to be “climate zones”.
It was below freezing here this morning, and the growing season is well under way. It’s still April so that can happen, but jeez. This winter is never going to end, I don’t care what the calendar says. We’ve been way below normal for the last couple of weeks; a few nice days here and there, but for the most part it’s been pretty chilly.
This time of year I sleep with only 2 sheets on the bed-no cover. Last night I decided it was going to be a 1 sheet night. I should have checked the local meteorologist forecast. I froze . You know ,when you are too sleepy to pull up extra cover? I didn’t know the forecast was 15 degrees below normal . Where was the Watts man?
I blame the Volcanoes.
On the upside, I get to wear my turtlenecks awhile longer. 🙂
I did query the eldest of our clan the other day and they remarked that it is starting to feel alot like 15 or so years ago.
We live in Central Kalifornia, FYI.
We are headed into the fifth week of the soccer season in Colorado, and the fifth week of snowed out, rained out or just bitter cold Saturdays. One week I had to coach two games and watch a third, in 35 MPH winds and 45 F temperatures. I was nearly hypothermic by the time I got home. We only have three weeks left to the season, and I am starting to wonder if we will have any pleasant weather.
Here in Boston, the TV weatherman just said that this will be one of the warmest Marches ever, even with the current below-average temps. So what’s the point? You could pick out somewhere in the world every day that is “below average.” The pettiness of this sort of post just makes AGW skeptics look bad.
MarkB
Must be all that warm El Nino water making South America cold. Cold is the new hot.
During the summer of 2003, the two week hot spell in Europe was unquestionably “climate.”
Since then, climate has retreated into computer models and all subsequent meteorological events (besides Katrina of course) have been weather.
Climate is waiting for “natural variability” to go away, before it comes back out of hiding.
MarkB says:
April 28, 2010 at 6:08 pm
Um, and where in this post did it say this had anything to do with
global warmingclimate change?I read the post as a simple curiousity…oh look the whole western hemisphere is showing below average temperatures. That’s definitely not the same as the (trivial) “somewhere in the world everyday that is ‘below average'”.
-Scott
MarkB, weather variability is what defines climate zones. The mean, range, mode, and median and cloud days are all important farming statistics, including day to day, month to month, season long, years long, and decades long data. Doesn’t anyone study how food is grown anymore?
stevengoddard says:
April 28, 2010 at 5:58 pm
Last weekend was especially cold I thought. I took the garbage out one night and swore I saw snow. My run on Sunday evening was absolutely brutal, as the wind was smashing me from the north and I was getting speckled with rain.
What’s funny is how fast the CAGW crowd is to say “it’s just weather, not climate” when it’s cold, but when it’s warm, it’s global warming. The thing is, it’s so easy to get it into your mind that the local features are tied to global warming (or not). Anytime I think I get a feel for it, the weather changes a lot. Fort Collins is particularly interesting, as I heard repeatedly in 2005/2006 how the recent years’ drought was due to global warming. Funny, now that we’re getting a lot more precipitation, suddenly THAT is caused by global warming.
When you point it out to the CAGW crowd, they don’t even understand the criticism…usually the response is something like “yes, exactly…warmer, colder, more rain, less rain, more snow, no snow…it’s all due to climate change!”
-Scott
The cold may well be due to the cold sea surface temperatures . I know we are told things are actually hot – but it certainly does not look like it – the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic seaboard of North America are very cold so the North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream) will be cool. The mid-Atlantic is cooling and the El Nino Modoki is fading. Its starting to look like Joe Bastardi will be right about a significant temperature drop this year.
Reuters help Pen Hadow’s propaganda:
Arctic Explorers Get Nasty Surprise – Rain, in the link at , begins as follows,
“In what looks to be another sign the Arctic is heating up quickly, British explorers in Canada ‘s Far North reported on Tuesday that they had been hit by a three-minute rain shower over the weekend. The rain fell on the team’s ice base off Ellef Rignes island, about 3,900 km (2,420 miles) north of the Canadian capital, Ottawa . “It’s definitely a shocker … the general feeling within the polar community is that rainfall in the high Canadian Arctic in April is a freak event,” said Pen Hadow, the team’s expedition director.”