Dalton Minimum Repeat goes mainstream

David Archibald writes in an email to WUWT:

The AGU Fall meeting has a session entitled “Aspects and consequences of an unusually deep and long solar minimum”.  Two hours of video of this session can be accessed: http://eventcg.com/clients/agu/fm09/U34A.html

Two of the papers presented had interesting observations with implications for climate.  First of all Solanki came to the conclusion that the Sun is leaving its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century.  He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years.  This is his last slide:

McCracken gave a paper with its title as per this slide:

While he states that it is his opinion alone and not necessarily held by his co-authors, he comes to the conclusion that a repeat of the Dalton Minimum is most likely:

Solar Cycle 24 is now just over a year old and the next event on the solar calendar is the year of maximum, which the green corona brightness tells us will be in 2015.

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For those who agree that the IPCC and Al Gore have gone too far, signing the online petition “Al Gore and The UN IPCC Should Give Back Their Nobel Prize!” seems like a reasonable option. The link is http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/nomorenobel/
Ecotretas

Van Grungy
Jimbo

Just to help the discussion along back in 28 July 2009 it was reported by David Archibald (guest post on WUWT):
“NASA now saying that a Dalton Minimum repeat is possible”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/nasa-now-saying-that-a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-possible/

First of all Solanki came to the conclusion that the Sun is leaving its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century. He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years.
The notion that the last half of the 20th century was the most active the past many millennia is less and less likely. There is mounting evidence that solar activity 1950-2000 was on par with [or possibly even slightly less than] during 1725-1800. Figure 11 of http://www.leif.org/research/Heliospheric%20Magnetic%20Field%201835-2009.pdf shows this well. See also http://www.leif.org/EOS/muscheler05nat_nature04045.pdf
Whether we’ll have a Dalton Minimum remains to be seen. And any cooling may depend [as it did back then] on suitable volcanic eruptions: 2009GL040882.pdf 🙂

Milwaukee Bob

Stock tip: Buy! LL Bean, North Face….

Leif Svalgaard (12:23:52) :
And any cooling may depend [as it did back then] on suitable volcanic eruptions: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL040882.pdf 🙂

Ron de Haan

Dalton Minimum most likely!
If we don’t stop the AGW scare, our sun will!
Unless more snow and cold is sold to the public as warming!

kim

When the sunspots leave the visible spectrum, the question will be; to chill or not to chill.
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Milwaukee Bob

Note to self: SELL carbon credits ASAP!

andy

Interesting that MWP does not feature any grand maximum, but rather longer period of medium activity, albeit not interrupted by any solar minimum. It is bettr visible also here:
http://blog.sme.sk/blog/560/195013/solanki2.jpg

DirkH

Al Gore extends his powers to the sun, saves humanity.

Robert

Not to point out the obvious, but given that the Oughts were the warmest decade on record, and corresponded with an unusually long and deep solar minimum, doesn’t that suggest the presence of a large non-solar forcing which is warming the planet in spite of the slight fall in irradiance?
If solar forcing had caused the anomalous temps of the 20th century, wouldn’t we have expected a long and deep solar minimum to stop the warming trend?

I’m glad he made sure to say that it is his personal opinion. This non-scientist thinks it is *way* too early to be speculating about minima, whether Dalton-style, Maunder-style, or otherwise. I think it is way too early to be speculating about human-caused GW, too.
Back in school, they taught us to let the data take us where it wanted. What happened to that concept?

Dr T G Watkins

Look forward to viewing the video. When is the CERN “Cloud” experiment expected?

rbateman

The current trajectory of SC24 has a target of 50-70 SSN by 2015.
Roughly. There is an uncertainty here complicated by the L&P effect that is, at present, eating away at the contrast of Sunspots.
The N. Hemisphere of the Sun is progressing in # of spots, but is lagging in Sunspot area. see – http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt
A Modern Maximum progression would have produced daily Sunspot Areas into the > 1000 x 10E6 by now.
There is a disconnect between the flux and Sunspot Area.
This is on the face of things.
You can see the Mt. Wilson data here:
http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/150_data.html#plots
and the San Fernando Obs. data here:
http://www.csun.edu/sfo/spotarea.gif
And all that gives a nice heads-up on what this Solar Cycle is panning out to be.
It surely is not an SC19 blowout in progress.
Thanks, David, for the reminder of what is going on 93 million miles away.

JonesII

The point is that a length that exceeds 12 years has always led to prolonged grand minimum (1798 Dalton minimum, 1856 Damon minimum). It is not known exactly how long the cycles before Maunder minimum were, but there seems to have been a minimum in 1620. This leads to 25 years for the two cycles 1620-1645 just before Maunder.
This means a cooling for decades, at least for 30 years, but we cannot be sure we are on a course to a new LIA (Little Ice Age). A low Dalton is probable, but one can’t be sure, there are too many indications of the solar magnetic field having a deep dive.
http://personal.inet.fi/tiede/tilmari/sunspots.html#alert
We expect that the next relatively deep minimum of the solar activity, radius, and radiation flux in the 200-year quasi-cycle will be close to the Maunder minimum level and will occur in the year 2040 ±10.
Kh. I. Abdusamatov
The Sun’s orbit in the years 1985±2035 is of disordered (nontrefoil) type and similar to that of the second half of the nineteenth century. By analogy,
mostly weaker and longer solar cycles should occur.
Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused
by solar inertial motion?
I. Charvatova:Geophysical Institute AS CR, BocÏnõÂ II, 141 31 Praha 4, Czech Republic
Though barycentric movements influence have been rejected by “settled” science, only based on gravitational influence (“flintstones universe”), as it is becoming every day more evident the electrical nature of the universe (plasma universe) then, it is possible the mutual influence between planets and the sun.

Ed Murphy

This ramp up reminds me of cycle 20, looking at the numbers of NH spots produced to date, compared to the SH. But who really knows…
http://www.solen.info/solar/cycl20.gif
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif
*Crossing my optimistic fingers*

Jaap de Vos

The rest is simple: LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY= HIGH COSMIC RADIATION= MORE CLOUDS = COOLING OF THE EARTH.
In the mean time: CO2 grows higher and higher…………

Alan S

Well that can’t be good, noticed the solar nagnetic field seems to be stuttering a bit. I hope these gentlemen are wrong in this instance. If it turns out they are correct it will be a very interesting ( decade or decades? ) time ahead.

NickB.

The sun during the second half of the 20th Century was more active than in the last 8000 years?
…and yet solar irradiance accounts for less than 10% of warming according to NOAA. Interesting

Alan S

Apolgogies to all for the shocking state of my post above! still getting to grips with a new phone. I think my fingers need some shrinking.

Andrew30

This is a Northern Hemisphere view.
In the next few weeks farmers are going to be making decisions about what crops to plant for the year. It is looking possible, or even likely that the ground may not be workable until later than usual this spring, and if the arctic oscillation index keeps diving down and staying low for prolonged periods like has been for the past few months, there could be some very late and hard frosts.
Farmers in North America, Europe and Asia really need some honest guidance about the real expected length of the coming growing season.
If the season is going to be short farmers need to be ordering and preparing to plant short season crops and food for food and not food for ethanol. Since the food to ethanol is a government sponsored or in some cases a legislated initiative; governments must speak up, loud and clear.
If farmers get bad information, they may well bring in a short or damaged crop. If they do, based on the current world grain reserves, about 250 million people could be starving to death come the summer of next year (2011).
If elected leaders continue to insist that the planet is getting warmer, and it does not; then people, lots and lots of people will starve to death during the summer of 2011, not some time in 2035 or 2050, but next year; and there will be nothing anyone will be able to do about it. The food will not be in the bins and humans can not survive by eating money.

rbateman (12:45:11) :
You can see the Mt. Wilson data here:
http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/150_data.html#plots

But be aware that the Mt Wilson data is marred by a change of calibration in 1982:
http://www.leif.org/research/MWO%20MPSI%20-%20F107.pdf

geo

Someone remind me why we believe we know sunspot records in detail further than a few hundred years back?

Kath

I would tend to go for non-event. The Sun’s activity is ramping up nicely and radio propagation is beginning to improve.

JonesII (12:49:43) :
it is becoming every day more evident the electrical nature of the universe (plasma universe) then, it is possible the mutual influence between planets and the sun.
AGW is enough voodoo. We don’t need more pseudo-science.
NickB. (12:56:56) :
The sun during the second half of the 20th Century was more active than in the last 8000 years?
Except that it most likely was not.

Robert

“For those who agree that the IPCC and Al Gore have gone too far, signing the online petition “Al Gore and The UN IPCC Should Give Back Their Nobel Prize!” seems like a reasonable option. The link is http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/nomorenobel/
Would you be so kind as to point to where either Al Gore or the IPCC said that we would never see an event similar to the Dalton Minimum?
Solar irradiance is increasing at the moment; it shows up in the sunspot numbers. It remains to be seen whether this unusually long and deep solar minimum, which coincided with the warmest decade on record, is anything other than a blip. Even if it persists, there’s no reason to think it will be remotely as powerful a forcing as GHGs: last month was the warmest January ever according to the sat data, and that’s at the nadir of solar irradiance.

Mikira

“Not to point out the obvious, but given that the Oughts were the warmest decade on record, and corresponded with an unusually long and deep solar minimum, doesn’t that suggest the presence of a large non-solar forcing which is warming the planet in spite of the slight fall in irradiance?
If solar forcing had caused the anomalous temps of the 20th century, wouldn’t we have expected a long and deep solar minimum to stop the warming trend?” – Robert
Robert, during the Solar maximum we had enjoyed the oceans warmed up, so how long to do think it takes the oceans to release all the heat they built up during that maximum? And just because a few sunspots occured doesn’t mean this minumim is over. In fact it still just began. (By the way – the oceans are cooling off, so the net effect will be a cooling trend.)

OT but BBCs Roger Harribin is calling for a “climate armistice”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8516905.stm
This sentence gave me the creeps though, esp as Harribin has been in touch with Anthony on this issue.
Although it is near impossible to find UK academic scientists professing to be “climate sceptic” (more on this in a future column) plenty of them agree there is much uncertainty about climates past and future.
I wonder what Mr Harribin has got up his sleeve next?

maz2

“Our resident lake-effect expert, Tom Moore, noticed Lake Erie is frozen over completely for the first time in 14 years!”
http://twitter.com/TWCi/status/9150581623
http://twitter.com/TWCi
O/T?

rbateman

Robert (12:35:12) :
Or maybe a long Solar Minimum drives Global temperatures absolutely stark raving wild.
Hey, if Global Warming can cause Global Cooling, then certainly a Solar Minimum can cause massive Polar Ice Cap melting.
This is what the Mayans were so worried about for 2012: The world isn’t coming to an end, reason is coming to an end.

DirkH

AGW is dead. Now we have a real problem.

BTW,
Donald Trump also defends the idea of taking the Nobel away from IPCC & Al Gore: http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/global_cooling_7njz5ZtpFblMuF5Vf7LJmN
Ecotretas

Mike Ramsey

Milwaukee Bob (12:32:02) :
Note to self: SELL carbon credits ASAP!
Buy puts instead.  Even though it is morally questionable to take money from weak minded individuals.
http://www.forbes.com/2006/08/23/investools-options-ge-in_wh_0823investools_inl.html
Mike Ramsey

jeanparisot

Does anyone measure 10Be production in “real time”?

geo (13:08:57) :
Someone remind me why we believe we know sunspot records in detail further than a few hundred years back?
Solar activity influences the amount of cosmic rays reaching the Earth. The cosmic rays produce radioactive nuclei that we can measure the concentration of in old trees and in deep ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica.

kim

Robert !2:35:12 You are no more pointing out the obvious than the man in the moon. We don’t know how the sun modifies the climate let alone whether it even does or not.
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Andrew30

Leif Svalgaard (13:18:12) :
“AGW is enough voodoo. We don’t need more pseudo-science.”
The CLOUD experiment is designed to test the theory that a decrease in solar magnetic activity causes an increase in clouds cover on the Earth. The idea is that the magnetic field from the Sun shields the Earth from interstellar cosmic rays and that these cosmic rays are a critical part of accumulation of free water molecules into water vapor micro-droplets (clouds).
An increase in cloud cover increases the amount light from the Sun that is reflected back into space. This increased reflection slowly cools the Earth. In the inverse situation when there are a lot of sunspots (increased magnetic activity) there are less clouds and the Earth slowly warms up.
There is substantial correlation between sun spots and cosmic rays and cosmic rays and global temperature in the current, historical and geologic record (cosmic rays leave a distinct atomic signature on some of the materials they strike); but in science, correlation is not causation. The CLOUD experiment seeks to prove at the sub-atomic level that these cosmic rays are in fact a required catalyst in the formation of water vapor micro-droplets and thus, clouds.
It is a simple idea; that makes a definite prediction; requires no proxy data, no adjustments and no interpretation of data. It is basic physics that anyone with a particle accelerator could reproduce. All of the data, methods and procedures will be available as soon as the experiment has been completed; later this year or early next year.
It is a Theory that explains climate change.
More Sun spots = Warmer Earth
Less Sun spots = Cooler Earth
It is not a popular Theory because people would have to accept that the ability for humans to affect the climate is the same as their ability to affect the Sun.

Dr. S you always make my day when you contribute. patience of job.

pyromancer76

Thank you, Leif Svaalgard, for reasoned comments from careful research.

CRS, Dr.P.H.

This link is to an excellent speech on the topic of solar minimums, sunspots and climate given at CERN by Dr. Jasper Kirkby of CERN at a colloquium on June 4, 2009.
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/
Title is “Evidence for pre-industrial solar-climate variability”. A must see!
I just attended the Fermilab colloquium on climate change given by Dr. Richard Lindzen, it was great! I’ll post the video when they put it up, please see the link below – his abstract is shown for 10 Feb 2010. It was a rather contentious crowd!
See: http://www-ppd.fnal.gov/EPPOffice-w/colloq/colloq.html

Jean Parisot (13:38:16) :
Does anyone measure 10Be production in “real time”?
Yes, 10Be is used to study land-use and erosion processes [and some of that 10Be comes from the soil]. The issue is not so much the real-time production, but how that corresponds to the deposition in ice.

Chuck Goudge

I agree that “stretched” cycles with low sun spot numbers is “very likely” for this cycle and the next. I predicted these long cycles years ago based on pattern recognition: http://graystonelabs.com/SolarCycle.html.

Ray

Leif Svalgaard (13:40:17) :
Leif, are the sun activity proxies created by the formation of radioactive nuclei from cosmic rays corrected by the state of then environment into which our solar system was in? Wouldn’t the amount of cosmic rays be also influenced not only by the sun’s activity but also, for example, if our solar system was passing through a cosmic dust cloud? In that case, less cosmic rays could get to the solar system.

Comparing annualized temperatures may be misleading. Seasonal anomaly may give a different impression. Here is a graph of CET summer temperatures anomaly normalized to the sunspot number
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET3.htm
It is matter of interpretation if Dalton minimum has any apparent correlation to the SSN.
More temp graphs on: http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GandF.htm

radun

Dr. Svalgaard
Any recent measurements (or results) from Livingston & Penn ?

Leif Svalgaard (12:27:39) :
Leif Svalgaard (12:23:52) :
And any cooling may depend [as it did back then] on suitable volcanic eruptions: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL040882.pdf 🙂

Thanks Leif, interesting paper in it’s own right, even if a bit light on location of the tree ring and coral proxies mentioned, and magnitudes of temperature drops.
There does seem to be more volcanic activity when the sun goes quiet. More big earthquakes too. Any ideas why?
The top 12 Earthquakes of the last century and the associated sunspot numbers:
http://www.jupitersdance.com/Top12.jpg

TerryBixler

Well over at solarcycle24.com Bob K6tr believes that all this talk of Dalton etc. is poppycock while Solanki’s position has been public for awhile. It remains to be seen if Livingston and Penn’s assertion continues to hold. Very interesting time for science.