UPDATE: The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work.
Read the Guardian story here and decide for yourself. If anyone knows of a contact for Dr. Latif, please leave it in comments as I’ll make this forum available to him should he wish to elaborate further.
h/t to WUWT reader Werner Weber for notifying me.
UPDATE2: Werner Weber writes to me in email:
> I have send him an e-mail, pointing out what happened during the night
> and invite him to take the oportunity to present his views in one of the
> leading sceptics blogs.
=====================================
We’ve been covering a lot of the recent cold outbreaks under the “weather is not climate department” heading. This story however is about both weather and climate and what one IPCC scientist thinks is headed our way.
The cold this December and January has been noteworthy and newsworthy. We just posted that December 2009 was the Second Snowiest on Record in the Northern Hemisphere. Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years, and Korea had the largest snowfall ever recorded since record keeping began in 1937. Plus all of Britain was recently covered by snow.
The cold is setting records too.
Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, there are Record low temperatures in Cuba and thousands of new low temperature records being set in the USA as well as Europe.
There are signs everywhere, according to an article in the Daily Mail, which produced this graphic below:
According to IPCC scientist Mojib Latif in an article for the Daily Mail, it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze. Latif is known as one of the world’s leading climate modelers.
Latif, is a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University and an author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Latif is a prominent scientist in the UN’s IPCC climate research group.
Latif thinks the cold snap Americans, Brits, and Europeans have been suffering through is the beginning of another cycle, this one a down cycle. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures. While maybe it is a harsh prediction, he calls it a “mini ice age”. That phrase is sure to stick in the craw of more than a few people. His theory is based on an analysis of natural oscillations in water temperatures in the oceans.
According to his He believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause, a “30-years-long blip”, in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.
At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could mask over any “manmade global warming” for the next few decades. He said the fluctuations in the NAO could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years.
In a stunning revelation, he told the Daily Mail that:
“a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 percent.”
Quite a revelation, and a smack down of much of the climate science in the last 30 years that attributes the cause mostly to CO2 increases.
In other news, Arctic sea ice is on the rise too.
According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007.I’m betting that summer 2010 will have even more ice retained.
Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much of that “rotten ice” that one Canadian alarmist researcher squawked about to the media just a few weeks ago. In fact, we aren’t looking bad at all compared to 30 years ago.
Note that 30 years ago, the technology didn’t exist to display snow cover on the left image, but today we can see just how much our northern hemisphere resembles a snowball.
Now, watch the warmists throw Latif under the bus.
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If the Cryosphere image had used this year for the right hand panel the difference would have been even more stark. This years images have much more very deep dark purple in them. Check it out.
Climategate, it’s popularity through a number of blogs like this one and some influential people are causing the climate gangsters to circle their wagons, but more importantly motivates many serious scientists to do their work and speak about results without being climate-politically correct anymore.
Those people don’t like what was going on and do not want to be in the same boat with the propagandists. They prefer to be scientists, not become kind of politicians or even criminals.
Where are we now? Sea currents are masking the CO2 effect, the sun is doing it … maybe there is not a lot left for CO2 anymore.
I am loving it, watching a thriller, developing in real life, in handy daily doses provided by WUWT and alikes.
What an experience.
Lucy Skywalker (11:56:17) : “…(5) by the time long-range pictures appear again, the current crusaders will be dead, senile, re-posted, in jail, retired with a good income, etc…”
You forgot locked up in the looney bin.
Onion, I read something similar and it seems logical that:
“ii) Pointed out that the best indicator of the current oceanic effect on climate is the latitudinal position of all the air circulation systems
iii) Mentioned that that latitudinal position of the air circulation systems is the best indication as to whether the troposphere is warming or cooling.”
But what drives the Oceanic climate if it is not variability in the Sun?
Tom P (12:12:03) …The best sentence : “If my name was not Mojib Latif, it would be global warming”…[From the Guardian article]…”If my name was not
Staffan Lindström it would be Hell Freezesinornot”… Mojib is listed in IMDB
btw. , quite a list…
It would be great if weather and climate could be modeled and predicted for the distant future.
I am sure you have all heard of “wicked” problems, long term predictions fall into this category – way too many poorly understood variables.
The IPCC team has to base its predictions on something they think they understand – we need to ignore them – they do not have an understanding of the complete picture but the money is great.
As responsible and concerned readers, scientists, engineers and architects – we need to come up with the range of possible scenario’s and propose rational solutions.
rbateman, yes I said that near the top but for some reason the 2009 image has stayed. Odd, because the 10/01/10 image is much more startling, showing snow right down to Spain. Hello, there in WUWTland, change the pic!
If Latif obtains results that clearly show the significance of oceanic effects then it is open to everyone else to interpret those results as they see fit.
His intention is irrelevant as is his own personal interpretation which is only one of many that are possible.
The Mail article is fair comment based on Latif’s findings.
Hmm… 30 years of cold… that would fit very well with a 60-year cycle, wouldn’t it…
http://dev-null.chu.cam.ac.uk/htm/soundandfury/220709-analysing_temps.htm
The above link demonstrates how a 60 year cycle dominates the temperature record ‘behind the noise’.
Goes to show, you don’t need incomprehensible methods to extract signal, a simple autocorrelation tells me (a maths undergrad) what it takes heavily-funded AGW scientists and models that no-one really understands to spot.
Mojib didn’t like it under the bus, so he’s trying to re-spin his work to avoid “The Big Cut-off.” He says, however: “No climate specialist would ever say that 100% of the warming we have seen is down to greenhouse gas emissions.”
Uh, yeah. Right. What about politicians and the media, Mojib?
Verily indeed, the verbum dismissum is ἤλεκτρον (Electron)
I seem to recall a similar story here a couple of months ago.
Here’s an up date for you: let’s see if the main story above incorporates it.
“A leading scientist has hit out at misleading newspaper reports that linked his research to claims that the current cold weather undermines the scientific case for manmade global warming.
Mojib Latif, a climate expert at the Leibniz Institute at Kiel University in Germany, said he “cannot understand” reports that used his research to question the scientific consensus on climate change.
He told the Guardian: “It comes as a surprise to me that people would try to use my statements to try to dispute the nature of global warming. I believe in manmade global warming. I have said that if my name was not Mojib Latif it would be global warming.”
He added: “There is no doubt within the scientific community that we are affecting the climate, that the climate is changing and responding to our emissions of greenhouse gases
…
The recent articles are not the first to misrepresent his research, Latif said. “There are numerous newspapers, radio stations and television channels all trying to get our attention. Some overstate and some want to downplay the problem as a way to get that attention,” he said. “We are trying to discuss in the media a highly complex issue. Nobody would discuss the problem of [Einstein’s theory of] relativity in the media. But because we all experience the weather, we all believe that we can assess the global warming problem.””
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/11/climate-change-global-warming-mojib-latif
From the posts I’ve read here – this guy is a traditional warmist, now trying to cover his ass, maybe by plagiarising from others? (Stephen Wilde (12:27:32) 🙂
Onion (12:23:16) : makes a good point. Hansen is caught out if it cools. He has also predicted 2010 to be the warmest ever as has Hadley (or is that the Met Office UK?)
I’m not great at fractions, but if up to (but not more than) 50 percent of global warming from 1980 to 2000 was positively contributed to by natural oscillations in ocean temperatures, then it would seem that those oscillations would also contribute negatively up to 50 percent toward world temperatures when they are in a cooling phase, thus AT MOST canceling out man-made global warming. We should be having long-term-average temperatures right now, or is my math all messed up? Where does Latif come up with the idea of a mini ice age? It seems he is trying to straddle two climate worlds – the global warming one and the real one we are experiencing right now.
Steve in SC (11:52:12) :
Wonder what sort of tires the bus has?
Michelins
Goodyears
Dunlops
Pirellis
Bridgestones
Toyos
Continentals
I suppose we will find out soon enough.
Nankang “ditchfinders” is the answer here. ; )
How would Mann hide a 30 year decline? He should be sentenced to 30 years hard labour – shovelling snow in Greenland
“Latif said his research suggested that up to half the warming seen over the 20th century was down to this natural ocean effect, but said that was consistent with the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “No climate specialist would ever say that 100% of the warming we have seen is down to greenhouse gas emissions.”
Sorry about the OT …. I am not getting a “comment” box on the Tips page.
anyway…. does anyone know anything about this?
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemans…/40749822.html
January 11, 2010
The excitement is building at KUSI as work continues on the one hour prime time special report on Global Warming: The Other Side. The telecast will make its TV debut on KUSI on Thursday evening at 9 PM. Set your DVR for this one. I have been writing feverishly and doing a series of interviews with experts, but that all fades when compared to the big news break we are preparing to reveal for the first time. We will be bringing the Climategate scandal from England to the United States.
It appears that Climategate is not going away.
Richard, the big year for the Met Office is 2014 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyDmdcPw7Uw
Stephen Singer (12:47:30) : “If the Cryosphere image had used this year for the right hand panel the difference would have been even more stark. This years images have much more very deep dark purple in them. Check it out.”
Yes, but it’s a ‘rotten’ purple.
Remember, the Arctic has lately been swapping air with the NH. That’s put a damper on ice growth and placed warmer air where it loses extra heat by radiation. Ultimately, that heat loss and the increased NH snow-cover albedo are likely to further depress NH temperatures in coming months. Ice growth will resume at substantial rates. Winter has barely begun.
They are going to have a real hard time trying to convince people that it’s going to get warmer in 30 years,
when they didn’t predict the 30 years of cold in the first place.
Mark F (12:31:40) :
Well the Daily Mail are on a roll!
And from your link I found this piece. Elderly people who were desperate and asking for help, left to die in the cold.
Will the “unsustainable population” crowd now have their way? Has the culling begun?
As the Brits say, Bloody Hell.
Sound and Fury (12:57:34) :
“The above link demonstrates how a 60 year cycle dominates the temperature record ‘behind the noise.”
Actually there appears to be a 50+ year half cycle in both solar activity and climatic oscillations.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETt.htm and
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSNAnomaly1.gif
the 108 FFT power spectrum can be seen in the graph produced Dr. Svalgaard, who occasionally has referred to 108 year cycle, and he considers that the Sun is now where it was some 100 years ago.
Lee, link not working mate.
The problem with “live science” (i.e. in real time) is that the cycle must allow a dozen repetitions within a scientists career.
That is why mice are so good. With a life expectancy of 18 months a “funded project” can work over 4 generations “between papers”. Bacteria are even better.
Since one cycle of climate covers the (working) life expectancy of three climate scientists we do not have the overview. Just the hysteria of change.