IPCC scientist: Global cooling headed our way for the next 30 years?

UPDATE: The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work.

Read the Guardian story here and decide for yourself.  If anyone knows of a contact for Dr. Latif, please leave it in comments as I’ll make this forum available to him should he wish to elaborate further.

h/t to WUWT reader Werner Weber for notifying me.

UPDATE2: Werner Weber writes to me in email:

> I have send him an e-mail, pointing out what happened during the night

> and invite him to take the oportunity to present his views in one of the

> leading sceptics blogs.

=====================================

We’ve been covering a lot of the recent cold outbreaks under the “weather is not climate department” heading. This story however is about both weather and climate and what one IPCC scientist thinks is headed our way.

From NASA Earth Observatory: December temperatures compared to average December temps recorded between 2000 and 2008. Blue indicates colder than average land surface temperatures, while red indicates warmer temperatures. Click for source.

The cold this December and January has been noteworthy and newsworthy. We just posted that December 2009 was the Second Snowiest on Record in the Northern Hemisphere. Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years, and Korea had the largest snowfall ever recorded since record keeping began in 1937. Plus all of Britain was recently covered by snow.

The cold is setting records too.

Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, there are Record low temperatures in Cuba and thousands of new low temperature records being set in the USA as well as Europe.

There are signs everywhere, according to an article in the Daily Mail, which produced this graphic below:

According to IPCC scientist Mojib Latif in an article for the Daily Mail,  it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze. Latif is known as one of the world’s leading climate modelers.

Latif, is a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University and an author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Latif is a prominent scientist in the UN’s IPCC climate research group.

Latif thinks the cold snap Americans, Brits, and Europeans have been suffering through is the beginning of another cycle, this one a down cycle. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures. While maybe it is a harsh prediction, he calls it a “mini ice age”.  That phrase is sure to stick in the craw of more than a few people. His theory is based on an analysis of natural oscillations in water temperatures in the oceans.

According to his He believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause,  a “30-years-long blip”,  in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.

At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could mask over any “manmade global warming” for the next few decades. He said the fluctuations in the NAO could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years.

In a stunning revelation, he told the Daily Mail that:

“a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 percent.”

Quite a revelation, and a smack down of much of the climate science in the last 30 years that attributes the cause mostly to CO2 increases.

In other news, Arctic sea ice is on the rise too.

According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007.I’m betting that summer 2010 will have even more ice retained.

Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much of that “rotten ice” that one Canadian alarmist researcher squawked about to the media just a few weeks ago. In fact, we aren’t looking bad at all compared to 30 years ago.

Click for larger image - Source: Cryosphere Today

Note that 30 years ago, the technology didn’t exist to display snow cover on the left image, but today we can see just how much our northern hemisphere resembles a snowball.

Now, watch the warmists throw Latif under the bus.


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stephen richards

Don’t you just love these guys. He’s one foot off the AGW bandwagon but just can’t let the other one go. Talk about fence sitting for Europe.

The ghost of Big Jim Cooley

That photo of the Earth on the right has been doctored – we all know that Britain is covered in white!

Retired Dave

Surely that is just rotten snow isn’t it?

Throw him under the bus??? They should put him on a pedestal. He just gave them cover for 30 more years of erroneous predictions.

Tim McHenry

I don’t know what Latif’s politics are, but if he thinks the public will stand for 30 years of cold while backing legislation to make it stay colder then he is walled off from reality indeed.

Evan Jones

It’s a step-by-step process. He says half of the last 30 years’ warming is natural. We have to give them a little time to wean them off the bandwagon.

The ghost of Big Jim Cooley

Actually scrub that – that’s the wrong date you have their!!! It’s 2010 now! Fix before you get loads of comments! The 2010 is even ‘worse’.
REPLY: press refresh for an updated image

Joe

Half o the warming is natural, the other half is getting it’s ass kicked.

janama

since when has an IPCC computer modeller had any cred?

Jim Clarke

Good for Mojab Latif. He has joined the ranks of climate realists. Of course, Prof. Bill Gray has been saying much the same thing for 15 to 20 years. So have many others. I am just a meteorologist, but I have noted for many years that the ocean cycles must be responsible for at least 50 percent of the warming observed during the 20th century, and that the atmosphere must be at least 50% less sensitive to CO2 than the IPCC says it is. No other conclusion can be drawn from the facts, and those facts have been very evident for at least a decade.
They may try to through Mr. Latif under the bus, but it is getting awfully crowded under here. Soon, the bus will just tip over and perhaps we can all just go home.

Douglas DC

The rats are running down the Hauser-after the Ice Berg hits the MV Copenhagen at
the dock….

Antonio San

It is not surprising that there was an “urgency” to make Carbo friendly business deals based on the IPCC warmist scenario… before the proverbial cold sheet hit the fan!

Stephan

Didn’t Tamino just publish a paper that states that there is no cyclical pattern to the weather.

wayne ward

Just trying to keep some credibility. Some scientist still want to have a reputation of looking at actual science as opposed to belief.

hunter

It is called normal climate and weather.
If Boeing designed airplanes the way AGW promoters do climate science, would anyone fly a Boeing?

jhborn

OT, but I wasn’t able to determine how to make a “Tips and Notes to WUWT” entry, where the following tip rightly belongs. (So please snip, and you may want to e-mail me back to tell me how properly to alert you to something you may want to include.)
Anyway, RealClimate has a post from Trenberth and others about Lindzen and Choi’s paper and about how they had trouble submitting a comment on it to the journal that Lindzen and Choi was published in.

Steve in SC

Wonder what sort of tires the bus has?
Michelins
Goodyears
Dunlops
Pirellis
Bridgestones
Toyos
Continentals
I suppose we will find out soon enough.

rbateman

Use this image to compare last year’s snow & ice to today’s:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/New%20Image.GIF
The sea ice is a lot thicker (more robust 🙂 ) and the snowcover if more extensive.

Pamela Gray

So cooler is better eh. I don’t see very many AGW’ers out there saying that this is better. All I hear are crickets chirping.
Wake me up in 30 years. I’ll take warmer over this any day.

I think this man’s brilliant.
The definitive let-out clause. “Masking global warming for 30 years”. So (1) politicians don’t need to wreck economies so fast because that can wait for the next election (2) scientists haven’t lost face because all-hidden, the sacred AGW continues (3) and anyway it’s not quite so bad because “half” the recent warming was natural (4) now we can concentrate on this WEATHER (5) by the time long-range pictures appear again, the current crusaders will be dead, senile, re-posted, in jail, retired with a good income, etc, and the next generation of braves will be in the driving seat. And by then, the recent horrors of scientific perversion may well have given rise to a decent return to Science. And who knows, we might even be able to explore the (ssh) ssb properly.

JonesII

He presumably read the following, from UN’s FAO, page 50 graph:
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/y2787e08.pdf

rbateman

The ghost of Big Jim Cooley (11:40:20) :
That photo of the Earth on the right has been doctored – we all know that Britain is covered in white!

Mighty close to covered in white today, is Britain.
See my image link above
The image in the article is from 2009, not 2010.

Jack

The joke is going to be on a lot of people. I hope that people learn some lessons about being conned. There were a lot of people who never believed in AGW.

stan

we have not had global warming in the last 10 years. some scientist say it is going to get cooler because of decreased sunspot activity.
then some “scientist” cooks up this hypothesis to explain why global warming isn’t happening and still be able to blame it on co2 and us. this sounds like something out of a day after tomorrow.
the only reason this ridiculous theory gets published is because it blames us.
how many times have scientist changed and come up with new agw theories?
they deserve no credibility.

mosomoso

Latif is a climate modeller, an IPCC scientist, and still a declared believer in AGW.
Sorry, but what we’re seeing here, from Mr Fifty Percent, is an example of how the alarmists will tippy-toe away from their slower fellow alarmists and keep their jobs. Their favourite word will be “mask”. (Remember: Thirty years was the perfect amount of time for the Global Coolists of the seventies to get the egg off their faces, and for Time and Newsweek to recast themselves as warming enthusiasts.)
Those who have propagated AGW should not be allowed to wriggle out of their position in this fashion. We should not be grateful to Latif for pointing out that natural forces and cycles are an influence on climate. There are people I know around my area who are so drunk they occasional sleep on the Pacific Highway…and they could have given you that information for free.

I meant, of course, the reactions to the recent horrors of scientific perversion may well have given rise to a decent return to Science.

bradley13

Oh no! It’s getting colder. AGC (cooling) is here, give us money!

Kath

Is there a composite satellite image of the whole world that shows, photographically, the current snow cover?

Bernice

Figuring out where to put the carbon
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/carbon-sequestration-0111.html
MIT used to be a great place to study one time. Now as with all the main stream Ivy league colleges they have moved away from mainstream science and created Hollywood style fictional catastrophes to get the attention of the students.
Hypothetical science degrees, fiction rather than fact.

Jeff L

OT (dont need to post if you dont want)
Anthony / moderators
I think the tips & notes blog is completely full or some problem like that. I have a really good link, but the “leave a comment” box never shows up (after the page took several minutes to load) – Sorry for posting this here (& feel free not to post ) – it was the only way for me to communicate this.
Here’s my tip. See link:
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html
I got this from a friend via email. I pretty informative little quiz for people who aren’t as close to the AGW as most are on this blog. It would be good short post with the recommendation WUWT readers pass the link along to as many of their friends as possible. Seems like a good way to communicate same basic info to a broader spectrum of people.

Bill Sticker

I believe Piers Corbyn predicted a cooling phase of 20 years followed by a period of around 100 years in which it would stay cooler than the past few years.

Perhaps Mojab Latif has been taking a few pointers?

Neo

James Hansen .. call your office.

Caveat: I’m not a scientist. But here goes anyway. It seems the operative question that arises from Latif’s statements is do the models that the IPCC is basing its conclusions upon properly model the effects of the North American Oscillation? Related, but I believe separate: Do the models allow for this temperature variation or do these temps fall within an acceptable confidence interval? (my assumption is it’s possible that models could be correct even if the NAO isn’t modeled properly or at all).

mancpd

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/11/climate-change-global-warming-mojib-latif
He’s now saying that he’s been misinterpreted, though this isn’t the first time that he’s said there cooling “which we have to explain”

KeithGuy

Mojib Latif describes himself as a believer in Global Warming
“If my name was not Mojib Latif, my name would be global warming. So I really believe in Global Warming” ,
I’m sure it won’t be long before the warmists find his theories too unpalatable for their camp and begin to describe him as a Flat-Earther or a Denialist.

Tom P

“Now, watch the warmists throw Latif under the bus.”
No, Latif has thrown the Mail journalist under a bus:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/11/climate-change-global-warming-mojib-latif
“The recent articles are not the first to misrepresent his research, Latif said.”
Or the last.

Old Goat

I posted this earlier on Christopher Bookers article in the Telegraph:
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6958093/Climate-change-the-true-price-of-the-warmists-folly-is-becoming-clear.html)
I see that now there is a thought that “global warming” may have, er, “paused” for the next 20 or 30 years… (Professor Mojib Latif – a “leading” member of IPCC, of course)
Is this a grudging half-acceptance of the truth, I wonder?
They don’t half wriggle, don’t they! Not having the humility to admit that the planet may now be entering a cooling phase, and that they might have been wrong all along, they say that warming may “pause” for a while, whilst cooling replaces it temporarily, then warming will resume resume. Which is what happens all the time, isn’t it? The planet warms, then cools, then warms…
I find it all rather amusing.
So, if the planet has been cooling, a temporary warm up would be “runaway global warming”, but if has been warming (or static), a cooling is only “temporary”? Yeah, right…
Running with the hare, and with the hounds springs to mind…

Bob B

I am wondering why though the UAH site shows a warmer month so far? I would expect to see something cooler show up? I know the trends still show negative for the past 7-8yrs or so.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

David44

It appears that natural climate fluctuations (and a certain whistle blower) have saved us from the AGW alarmists. The alarmists will likely never say uncle (It’s only a pause!), but if the center/independent voter wasn’t lost to Climategate, surely it will be to this winter.
Our national energy policy should now focus on becoming as independent as possible from foreign oil and gas, and prevention of true/traditional air and water pollution, not CO2. (As of now, the more CO2 the better.) Coal mining and burning do contribute significantly to pollution and environmental degradation so IMHO we need a slow but definite and economically viable transition from coal to thorium nuclear. If you are unfamiliar with the advantages of thorium over uranium/plutonium, here are some sources:
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/email/html/8746sci2.html
http://www.itheo.org/
http://thoriumenergy.blogspot.com/2006/05/chronology-of-nuclear-history-with.html

Aron

Greens don’t care if we’re going to freeze, as long as they can make you live on a few beans and a glass of dirty water…and that’s for westerners. What they have planned for Africans can barely be put into words…
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/the-end-of-consumerism-our-way-of-life-is-not-viable-1863278.html
Funniest paranoid comment on there “I just don’t buy French cheese any longer. The carbon footprint is just too large”
And I almost died laughing.

imapopulist

Billions upon billions of dollars have been wasted on concocted science where the “ends” justified the manipulation of the “means” – aka the facts.
I believe a number of AGW scientists should be arrested and prosecuted for fraud, beginning with MMann.

If the Sun is anything to do with it (which I am not saying that it is, not at list directly trough TSI), then most likely that would be the case.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF-strength.gif
(more graphs on http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GandF.htm )

ELF

Speaking of skeptics and almost-skeptics, there is a list article on WIkipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
that could use your help. We are looking for more scientists to list here. This list was started by the warmists who have really set a high bar for inclusion, presumably to keep the numbers of scientists listed low.
Any names you all can add would be appreciated, either in the article or the Talk page.
Thanks in advance

jtom

Don’t let up on the pressure. All of you, please post this on any other sites you visit to keep reminding folks of what the ‘state of the art’ in climate modeling looks like (published 20/06/2009 on Marketwatch):
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heating-costs-could-fall-8-this-winter-2009-10-06
“Catching a break on heating costs
Winter bills could fall 8% this year, agency predictsExplore related topics
Gas/Utilities Story
Comments Screener (22) Alert Email Print ShareBy Kellen Henry, Medill News Service
WASHINGTON (Medill News Service) — U.S. households could get an 8% break on the cost of heating their homes this winter, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday”
[skip]
Warmer winter on tap
Temperatures in the U.S. will likely be about 1% warmer this winter, compared with both last winter and the 30-year average, said Michael Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday.
“We have a weak el niño, developed over the summer,” Halpert said. “Forecasts for the most part, maintain some level of el niño through the winter.”
………………………………………………………
They must be called out and held accountable for their poorly performing models.

Richard

Its cool here too in NZ. 15 at the moment, chilly even. But I’m headed for Aussie, sunny Goldcoast, this weekend. Nice and warm there, but not too warm

rbateman

Moderator:
Note that 30years ago, the technology didn’t exist to display snow cover on the left image, but today we can see just how much our northern hemisphere resembles a snowball.
If it was intended for the right pane to show 2010 instead of 2009, the Cyrosphere Today compare page needs to be selector box utilized to get 2010.
It wants to show 2009 by default.
REPLY: press refresh for an updated image

Tom G(ologist)

Jack
“The joke is going to be on a lot of people. I hope that people learn some lessons about being conned. There were a lot of people who never believed in AGW.”
There will be MANY more who will claim they never accepted AGW once that damned overdue kid finally has the ears of the people who matter and exclaims “but he’s not wearing anything.”
As one person in a recent documentary I saw about Woodstock said, “If everyone who has SAID they were there actually was there, there would have been millions of attendees, not just the half million who actually were there.”
It will be the same, but I have to admit I will, for once, be happy to be one of the many who will claim they knew all along something was wrong with the whole damned thing.

Nam

If global temperatures really do begin to cool the IPCC can now claim that they predicted it, similar to how the UK Met Office predicted a leveling off of temperatures in the past decade.

Onion

“At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could mask over any “manmade global warming” for the next few decades. ”
Here’s the thing
Go back to the original paper, the granddaddy of them all by Hansen
“Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide”
Science 28 August 1981, Volume 213, Number 4511
Hansen explicitly predicts in this paper that CO2-warming will overwhelm all other climate factors by the year 2000, and with increasing magnitude after that date so long as anthropogenic CO2 production grows year-on-year. It is as specific and falsifiable a prediction as we’re going to get out of these warmist scientists
So, if the Earth cools after 2000, that’s it. Not only is Hansen’s theory wrong, but that cooling can’t be blamed on other factors either