UPDATE: The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work.
Read the Guardian story here and decide for yourself. If anyone knows of a contact for Dr. Latif, please leave it in comments as I’ll make this forum available to him should he wish to elaborate further.
h/t to WUWT reader Werner Weber for notifying me.
UPDATE2: Werner Weber writes to me in email:
> I have send him an e-mail, pointing out what happened during the night
> and invite him to take the oportunity to present his views in one of the
> leading sceptics blogs.
=====================================
We’ve been covering a lot of the recent cold outbreaks under the “weather is not climate department” heading. This story however is about both weather and climate and what one IPCC scientist thinks is headed our way.
The cold this December and January has been noteworthy and newsworthy. We just posted that December 2009 was the Second Snowiest on Record in the Northern Hemisphere. Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years, and Korea had the largest snowfall ever recorded since record keeping began in 1937. Plus all of Britain was recently covered by snow.
The cold is setting records too.
Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, there are Record low temperatures in Cuba and thousands of new low temperature records being set in the USA as well as Europe.
There are signs everywhere, according to an article in the Daily Mail, which produced this graphic below:
According to IPCC scientist Mojib Latif in an article for the Daily Mail, it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze. Latif is known as one of the world’s leading climate modelers.
Latif, is a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University and an author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Latif is a prominent scientist in the UN’s IPCC climate research group.
Latif thinks the cold snap Americans, Brits, and Europeans have been suffering through is the beginning of another cycle, this one a down cycle. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures. While maybe it is a harsh prediction, he calls it a “mini ice age”. That phrase is sure to stick in the craw of more than a few people. His theory is based on an analysis of natural oscillations in water temperatures in the oceans.
According to his He believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause, a “30-years-long blip”, in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.
At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could mask over any “manmade global warming” for the next few decades. He said the fluctuations in the NAO could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years.
In a stunning revelation, he told the Daily Mail that:
“a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 percent.”
Quite a revelation, and a smack down of much of the climate science in the last 30 years that attributes the cause mostly to CO2 increases.
In other news, Arctic sea ice is on the rise too.
According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007.I’m betting that summer 2010 will have even more ice retained.
Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much of that “rotten ice” that one Canadian alarmist researcher squawked about to the media just a few weeks ago. In fact, we aren’t looking bad at all compared to 30 years ago.
Note that 30 years ago, the technology didn’t exist to display snow cover on the left image, but today we can see just how much our northern hemisphere resembles a snowball.
Now, watch the warmists throw Latif under the bus.
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Uh, isn’t it Mojib Latif?
…but the science is still settled though, right?
“According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, the warming of the Earth since 1900 is due to natural oceanic cycles, and not man-made greenhouse gases.”
I find this claim to be rather dubious, as there’s is no named individual and they are usually all AGW enthusiasts.
He seems to have read my material published over the past two years and may be trying to defuse the implications by limiting the oceanic effect to 50% whereas I’m pretty sure it is actually 100% or very near it depending on the size of any solar component.
Although others have referred to the PDO and AO and NAO I think that so far I’m the only person who has:
i) Asserted that one needs to take the netted out situation in relation to all ocean oscillations at any one time.
ii) Pointed out that the best indicator of the current oceanic effect on climate is the latitudinal position of all the air circulation systems
iii) Mentioned that that latitudinal position of the air circulation systems is the best indication as to whether the troposphere is warming or cooling.
iv) Proposed that at any one time the net effect on the global tropospheric temperature will be a combination of solar and oceanic effects.
v) Stipulated that the speed of the hydrological cycle is highly variable and serves to maintain equilibrium between sea surface and surface air temperatures whatever GHGs in the air try to do.
vi) Explained that the real controller for tropospheric air temperatures is the rate of energy release from the ocean surfaces and NOT the greenhouse effect.
vii) Proposed that the tropospheric temperature will be affected by both variable rates of energy release from the oceans AND variable rates of energy release from stratosphere upwards.
There’s more but I don’t want to get even more boring.
“According to his He believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause, a “30-years-long blip”, in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.”
Oops… you might want to clean up that paragraph.
…Actually I called this man some years ago, wondering about some statements
he had made, using my best rusty German…Now checking a German TV program
on YouTube from March 2009 where Prof. Latif warns that heatwaves may reach
50 degrees Celsius in south and east Germany…10 months ago…Ein Profchen
für alle…
I wonder if:
a) he’s a true alarmist who wants to put this out there so that even cold temperatures can support his theory?
or
b) his prediction of AGW taking off again in a few decades is just a bone he’s throwing to the true alarmists (so they don’t cut off his head) and he’s not a true believer himself?
Either way it would be interesting to see what his previous predictions/projections were for 2010-2035 before this year.
Ah yes, the 50 percent thing again, just how many times have they said this and that contributed to 50 percent of the warming?
In light of that, when will they just put that all together and say that CO2 did little to warm the Earth?
I wonder how those European homes without furnaces are going to hold up. They sound great, I would consider building one myself, but… Record cold already? And 20 to 30 years of cooling temperatures? Maybe still a good idea here in Pennsylvania, but how happy are the occupants in Germany and Scandinavia right now?
Well the Daily Mail are on a roll!
” Sea water under an East Antarctic ice shelf showed no sign of higher temperatures, first tests showed today.
Despite fears of a thaw linked to global warming that could bring higher world ocean levels, tests conducted on the Fimbul Ice Shelf showed the sea water is still around freezing. ”
link
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1242398/Now-tests-ice-ISNT-melting-Sea-water-shelf-East-Antarctic-freezing.html
[formatting issue? – RT]
Joe Born (11:52:10) – The link to the “Tips” page is not visible in Google Chrome unless you Control-F Tips to find it. I already gave a tip that the menu should not use the overly wide spacing.
Why can’t I delete my stupid, redundant remarks? 🙂
[No worries, I helped you out. -RT – mod]
Could it be that this is part of a “hide the [certainty]” strategy? We’ve already seen them vociferously deny that real scientists ever believed in global cooling during the 1970’s. When the alarmists are thoroughly discredited in the public’s eye, they will need to be able to point to exculpatory evidence.
First, they will be able to say that all the alarmism was from politicians such as Al Gore and UN leaders who exaggerated the statements of real scientists and turned them into claims of “the sky is falling”. It was never as serious as the politicians were saying, but the public was silly enough to believe them.
Second, they will be able to point to scientists like Latif who clearly acknowledge that a huge part of the warming was due to normal variations. Who knows, they might even claim that the scientists who wrote dissenting opinions for the IPCC, and even the tens of thousands of scientists who have signed the Oregon Petition and similar dissenting documents, represented the “real opinion” of scientists.
Third, they will heap blame on a handful of scientists (such as those with Climategate) who “misled us”. In fact, I would not be surprised if the people who pilfered the Climategate emails were scientists on the alarmist side who realized that this was a great opportunity to set up a fall-guy just in case they need one.
Have you ever noticed that when these researchers come out with something that doesn’t jive with the “Global Warming Standards”, they add an apology to keep the “Global Warming Borg” from attacking?
“We’re headed into a 30 year mini ice age… But!
It doesn’t mean there isn’t “Global Warming”
“We realize that our research seems to indicate there are a lot of polar bears… BUT!
It doesn’t mean there isn’t “Global Warming”
“Yes we have record cold now… BUT!
It doesn’t mean there isn’t “Global Warming”
The end of consumerism! (Idiots)
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/the-end-of-consumerism-our-way-of-life-is-not-viable-1863278.html
OMG! My brother will be blowing the whistle on this! In 20 years the oceans will freeze and all the lands will be covered by glaciers! Icebergs will be floating off the coast of L.A. The sky is falling!
Has anyone noticed that the icecap on Greenland has gotten bigger in the last 30 years?
Funny how Cryosphere Today put an earth shadow on the 1/10/2010 image to minimize all the snow? What gives? It’s not even photoshopped correctly since the curve of the shadow doesn’t cut the earth in half… No shadow on 1/10/2009… Do they think they can do whatever they want and no one will notice?
Oh Yeah… they do think that…
Check this:
“Dr. LATIF: If my name was not Mojib Latif, my name would be global warming. So I really believe in Global Warming. Okay. However, you know, we have to accept that there are these natural fluctuations, and therefore, the temperature may not show additional warming temporarily. ”
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120668812&ft=1&f=1007
Interesting news.
I remember when the Norwegian Foreign Minister, Gar Stoere, together with Al Gore gave us the warning in Copenhagen.
The north pole ice would be gone in so and so many years.
AND, he also said that those not taking this seriously, was “strange people” (actually the expression he used is impossible to translate. “Morons”, I think he wanted to say, in a diplomatic way)
Who looks “strange” now? ( Again, diplomatic for “moron”).
Not very smart, was it, to share the podium with Al Gore.
I think those he meant, deserves an official apology, thats what I think.
If he’s an IPCC scientist and he’s changed his tune that much it says that the IPCC’s been handed the biggest bazooka to point up their own ass in its history. He sounds just like an ex Commie in Moscow mouthing the new capitalist mantras in about 1990.
I think that wholescale sackings are required before any new body is formed to INFORM politicians about MEASURED PHENOMENA, potentially measureable phenomena and quantifiable and unquantifiable risk factors.
It would be a good idea if the new organisation was like a global CERN, with countries contributing budgets to pay for it from their own R+D budgets. It would be good if it limited itself to pan-regional issues, such as Sea Ice, global oceanic parameters and global atmospheric parameters, although I suspect that equatorial nations might demur from contributions to arctic measurements….
There are many models for these things, but their research should be linked to global economic/political needs, not dominated by self-regulated basic research, although some will undoubtedly be needed. IMHO.
The one thing to say is this: if there is a 30 year window where warming won’t be catastrophic, it does mean that there is time enough for research to address issues of particulates, aerosols and, hopefully, cosmic rays/cloud formation issues during a time when rapid temperature rise is unlikely.
It may of course be that it won’t be likely AFTER 30 years, but prudence would imply open-mindedness there, I would think.
To ELF (12:17:45) :
I haven’t a clue as to how to add things to wikipedia, even on the talk page, but here is a very reliable source and appears to have many names not currently listed:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport
Very long list of names.
I would hate to see an official forecast that we could look at in 5 or 10 years and actually verify. That would be way to formal and we might actually learn something.
I notice in the Guardian that Mojib Latif has criticized the Mail’s article for suggesting that his theories dispute AGW.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/11/climate-change-global-warming-mojib-latif
Come on Latif. Your have to admit that your theories don’t exactly support the IPCC’s Climate Models.
vukcevic (12:16:21) : Your curves are right. We do not live isolated, in a glass covered like earth. I am beginning to think, from the experience of eating a bread in the breakfast, that such a loaf of bread does not take into consideration all the science of inquisition’s dominican friars now known as astrophysicists, which ignore that it came from the sun when working on the leaves of wheat…
So with everything, a continuous energy flow, call it protons or whatever, which while we write these words become the new bonds of a new sugar or carbohydrate molecule, making possible its existence and my early morning breakfast.
They are the illuminati, owners of their own folly, the toys of a heavenly joker!!