Mayon – Shades of Pinatubo
Here’s a recent AP report and bulletin from local authorities. Meanwhile, fools rush in as 2400 tourists a day flock to the area.
From the Philippine institute of Volcanologyand Seismology
30 December 2009 7:00 AM
For the past 24 hours, one ash explosion occurred at Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). The explosion produced a dirty white ash column that rose to about 100 meters above the summit and drifted to the northwest. Lava continued to flow down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. The lava front has now reached about 5.9 kilometers from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully.
Mayon Volcano’s seismic network recorded 16 volcanic earthquakes. A total of 150 rock fall events related to the detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes was also detected by the seismic network. Yesterday’s measurement of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate yielded an average value of 4,397 tonnes per day (t/d). The volcano edifice remains inflated as indicated by the electronic tilt meter installed at the northeast sector of the volcano.
The status of Mayon Volcano is maintained at Alert Level 4. PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. In addition, Civil Aviation Authorities must advise pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano’s summit as ejected ash and volcanic fragments from sudden explosions may pose hazards to aircrafts. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
SPEAKING OF KRAKATOA
Several people have mentioned it, but I don’t see that anyone has reported on what it’s up to lately. Turns out, it appears to be waking up, at least as of last June/July it was.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1203028/Will-Krakatoa-rock-world-Last-time-killed-thousands-changed-weather-years-deadlier.html
http://thejakartaglobe.com/national/officials-concerned-about-recent-activity-at-krakatau/313785
An earlier report from 2006:
“It has grown an average of 13 cm (5 inches) per week in the last sixty years. It’s an active – very active – volcano with multiple episodes of volcanic activity since 1963, the most recent having started in 1994. Since then Anak Krakatoa quiet periods have been measured in days, punctuated with explosions and eruptions. Reports from 2005 indicate that volcanic activity at Anak Krakatoa is increasing.”
http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=578
The most recent thing I can find is from Dec 11, and is translated by Google from the Indonesian here.
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaindonesia.com%2Fread%2F2009%2F12%2F11%2F111017%2F123%2F101%2FStatus-Gunung-Anak-Krakatau-Turun-Jadi-Waspada&sl=auto&tl=en
13 years Surtsey to St. Helens
2 years St. Helens to El Chicon
9 years El Chicon to Pinatubo
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OK – But Mt St Helens didn’t affect climate much, and on a scale of 1 to Yellowstone erupting, was realitvely minor. Likewise, El Chicon was much less impact than Pinatubo.
So, your intervals (cherry-picking data here!) would have another much more “sellable” 30 year pattern if you used
24 year Surtsey to Pinatubo
I have read that the intensity (size) of volcanic eruptions have been declining over time. What we consider large eruptions now would be quite small compared to the earliest eruptions.
I never said any of those eruptions were even close to a Yellowstone event. It is called a super volcano for a reason.
El Chicon is second only to Mt. Pinitubo in sulfur emissions in the wiki chart posted above and its 27 year time span. Notice also that Pinitubo was immediately followed by a high sulfur emission eruption from the Hudson volcano so cooling attributed to Pinitubo’s eruption is likely augmented by that companion eruptions sulfur emissions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TOMS_SO2_time_nov03.png
It (El Chicon) was the volcanic eruption that cinched the hypothesis that volcanic cooling was due to sulfur emissions that was being discussed at the time. At the time it happened it was interpreted as a significant cooling episode. Obviously nothing like the historical giant eruptions but never the less its cooling effect was well documented at the time and use as proof that it was sulfur emissions of the eruption not the ejecta mass that was important to global cooling.
http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/climate_effects.html
You can’t cherry pick if you are using all the major events you know about. If you would like to add to the list feel free. As mentioned, when you are dealing with a random event, trying to determine a time interval between events is simply creating a feel good human construct that has little if any mathematical meaning.
As far as “sellable” patterns — sorry I have no interest in manipulating the data to make a good sales pitch, that is what the AGW fools are doing.
Like the weather, except for eruptions in populated areas, and eruptions that leave big finger prints in the historical record and are identifiable, we really have relatively poor historical records of frequency of major eruptions. It is entirely possible that multiple large eruptions are completely missing from the record or we are confusing multiple near simultaneous small eruptions in remote locations for a single eruption.
It is much like the concept of the “100 year flood”. You can have two 100 year floods within weeks of each other in the same drainage, or you can go 500 years or more without seeing one. The term is misused by the press and the public. It does not mean that that particular type of flood only occurs once every 100 years, but rather that it has a 1/100 chance of occurring in any given year. Like throwing a fair pair of dice, you have a 1/36 chance of getting a double 6 but that event has no influence on your next throw.
Larry
Fellow volcanophiles will enjoy reading “Volcano cowboys : the rocky evolution of a dangerous science” by Dick Thompson.
— which has an amazing, & gripping, account of the runup to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, from the viewpoint of a USGS team sent to assist the PI govt & the USAF — as you may recall, Clark AFB was heavily damaged by the eruption, & subsequently abandoned.
Pete Tillman
Consulting Geologist, Arizona and New Mexico (USA)
The earth is getting restless: A volcano in the Congo has just errupted:
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/02/volcano-erupts-eastern-congo-sends-lava-national-park/?test=latestnews
hotrod (21:02:09) :
“Although the Mt. St. Helens blast emitted a greater amount of ash in the stratosphere, the El Chichon eruption emitted a much greater volume of sulfur-rich gases (40x more). It appears that the volume of pyroclastic debris emitted during a blast is not the best criteria to measure its effects on the atmosphere. The amount of sulfur-rich gases appears to be more important.”
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Thank you for the additional info, and the correction.
I am there to shoot the eruption. Seems like the threat of a major eruption has subsided, though. Good for the folks that live there, major disappointment for me. 🙁
Seems simple enough to me. Quieter sun-> cooler surface -> bigger thermal gradient between surface and core -> faster movement of underground heat to surface -> more volcanic activity.