Mayon – Shades of Pinatubo
Here’s a recent AP report and bulletin from local authorities. Meanwhile, fools rush in as 2400 tourists a day flock to the area.
From the Philippine institute of Volcanologyand Seismology
30 December 2009 7:00 AM
For the past 24 hours, one ash explosion occurred at Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). The explosion produced a dirty white ash column that rose to about 100 meters above the summit and drifted to the northwest. Lava continued to flow down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. The lava front has now reached about 5.9 kilometers from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully.
Mayon Volcano’s seismic network recorded 16 volcanic earthquakes. A total of 150 rock fall events related to the detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes was also detected by the seismic network. Yesterday’s measurement of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate yielded an average value of 4,397 tonnes per day (t/d). The volcano edifice remains inflated as indicated by the electronic tilt meter installed at the northeast sector of the volcano.
The status of Mayon Volcano is maintained at Alert Level 4. PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. In addition, Civil Aviation Authorities must advise pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano’s summit as ejected ash and volcanic fragments from sudden explosions may pose hazards to aircrafts. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Second, wouldn’t sulfur outgas from the ocean the same way other gases do, or is it too heavy? As many under water volcanoes as there are, I expect they certainly have some effect on the ocean, but what?
—…—…
Well, yes, the underseas vents (many more numerous than “volcanoes”) emit the SOx and other nasty pollutants into the water, but you’ve got to remember that each vent is almost certainly under 3000 to 5000 feet of very cold high pressure sea water.
So the moving water right above and around the vent gets hit by the gas bubbles, absorbs the gas, and moves on past the vent. Fresh (gas-free) cold salt water moves past the vent a few seconds later, and the next bit of gas to erupt up gets absorbed very quickly (maybe 10 to 50 feet of “free gas bubbles” – if that much.)
So the local cold salt water never gets saturated, and the dissolved gasses never really get released into the atmosphere. At least not in a measurable distinct way.
Interesting thread. Katmai / Novarupta blew in 1912. Size of the eruption was just a bit larger than Pinatubo, but it was a high latitude eruption. I think the WUWT archives have an article with the number of days without sunspots. The period 1912-1914 (or so) was a three year period with three of the top ten years without sunspots this last century. Link? Who knows. Worth watching, though.
Another little known relatively high latitude eruption was Baitoshan on the NORK / China border. It blew in 1010 with about 150 cubic km of ejecta. Don’t know what climate impact it had. Cheers –
This afternoon I wrote:
The thank you note turned out to be in response to my thank you to the authors fo Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity I don’t know if a more recent document is available.
The trigger that set me off before was a poster who referred to “There is a super-volcano in Yellowstone Park in the northeast corner of Wyoming. According to the best scientific information available, it is overdue for an eruption.” He made no attempt to document either claim so I debunked both, rather harshly. Wow, that was only a year+month+day ago? Seems longer! See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/29/statistician-debunks-gores-climate-linkage-of-the-collapse-of-the-mayan-civilisation/#comment-60475
@ur momisugly Gail Combs (17:22:57) :
Paul K (15:33:16) :
Be careful relying on trade publications and newspaper articles that cherry-pick data. Yes, the wheat carryout (stocks at end of season) in ‘08 were very low at ~300 million bu, but the 08-09 plantings were enormous…
Reply
Thanks Paul, I was aware of the 2008 problems and the doubling of the price in feed corn and other livestock feed but I could not find anything about 2009 except worry in the spring that farmers would not have the cash to buy seed. Looks like they found the money but that type of info never makes the news.+
Progressive Farmer has some info on this years corn crop:
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=grainmarkets&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc25987ff10125dfddcaf2034b&showCommentsOverride=false
“Second Thoughts on Unharvested Corn Guesses
When USDA released its final crop progress report just before Christmas that showed 5 percent of expected production was yet to be harvested, analysts were guessing about how many bushels would be lost.
Some estimates — as we reported in “Tallying Corn in the Field” on Dec. 23 were pegging unharvested corn around 625 million bushels, with expected losses near 100 m bu.
Now there are some more conservative estimates around. One private analyst pointed out to clients that yields in three of the states where harvest is lagging are below the U.S. national average (North and South Dakota and Wisconsin). And in addition, he reasoned that the remaining unharvested fields are mostly the very late planted corn, which likely have yields even below the state average.
Taking those ideas into account would put unharvested bushels closer to 530 million, and if 7 to 10 percent of those are lost, the actual reduction could be closer to 40 or 50 million bushels, or half what some analysts were expecting.
If that’s accurate, the lost bushels could have an even more limited or localized effect on corn supplies and markets.”
John (12:00:04) :
> OMG! at the satellite picture. That volcano looks like a ripe zit on the face of the earth ready to blow. I hope the local populace take note and evacuate before the event.
Well, yeah, except for one thing – the zit is already oozing gray glop. This means there’s a direct connection between magma chamber and surface and unless there’s a blockage or big gas release the volcano may not “blow”. Also, note that the volcano has such a nice symmetric cone, so it likely hasn’t exploded recently. The evacuation efforts have focused on low events like lahars and pyroclastic flows, not explosions.
(Note that Mount St. Helens had nice symmetry too, but the bulge that formed on it side resulted in the lateral blast that flattened the forest.)
As others have mentioned, no good explosion means little transport of SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere and hence little cooling.
“Ric Werme (17:57:22) :
[…]
We really do need start moving off this planet. Too many hazards here.”
The risk of a deadly accident while escaping the planet far outweighs the lifetime risk of volcano eruptions.
The sad part is when people look back at the colder temperatures they may well associate the volcano with the temperature when the volcano has nothing to do with the effect. 10 to 1 that 20 years from now some idiot mentions temperature and this volcanic eruption. 2 to one that some ignorant AGW proponent in the news mentions it in the next 2 years.
Gail, we Export a couple of Billion Bushels of Corn, and Soybeans Every Year.
Also, that farmland is worth $3,000.00 to $5,000.00 per Acre. It can more than stand for the $50.00, or so, for Seeds.
Some recent news:
And the notion that any volcano is “due” to erupt is nonsense. You can have a volcano that erupts, on average, at 10,000 year intervals but maybe those eruptions vary by up to 5,000 years. 5,000 years is a long time in the life of human beings and is nothing in geological time. A volcano that erupts quite frequently can suddenly “sleep” for thousands of years or one that hasn’t erupted and was thought “extinct” can come roaring back into active eruption.
Gail Combs (17:22:57) :
Last year (2008) when corn and other commodities began to rise because of an ‘alleged’ shortage, 3 Princeton Univ. folks went out to investigate. They found the silos stuffed to the gills in the Midwest. Bought by future traders and stored (illegally –you can’t do that and operate on the CBOT) for the purpose of causing a shortage.
So, the story of all the grain going to biofuel was bunk. After the biofuel, feedlot and food processors orders were filled, there was still enough to stuff all the silos to the gills.
After the June/July corn price swoon, the pricing returned to normal in the space of about 2 months.
While there may be coming food shortages due to unseasonable weather, we’re not there yet. There may still be time to make preparations, provided the Agenda doesn’t confuse the crap out of the market and foul everything up. And that requires dumping the warming model predictions and getting back to reality.
Steven Frost (17:16:27) :
Mother earth is angry at the countless sins we’ve committed against her.
These problems with the volcanoes are obviously tied to the ongoing decline of moral standards. Not enough virgins to toss in.
Volcanoes are most common along the divisions between tectonic plates as can be seen by a mapping of earthquake epicenters:
http://research.dlindquist.com/quake/geographic/?map=all
This one is half way between China and Australia.
“rbateman (19:05:29) :
[…]
They found the silos stuffed to the gills in the Midwest. Bought by future traders and stored (illegally –you can’t do that and operate on the CBOT) for the purpose of causing a shortage.”
Ah America with its ruthless capitalism. Break rules, get rich. What an expression of the Will To Power. A truely Nietzschean country.
While what you say is for the most part true, the way it is presented is somewhat misleading.
Up until the early 2000’s, the US government would purchase large amounts of grain and other agricultural products in order to support prices. These surplus stocks were used to feed the poor both here and abroad. In times of famine, large shipments of this surplus food would find its way overseas to ease the suffering.
Today the grain prices are high enough that the support price triggers are never reached. The government doesn’t have any surplus anymore. While prices may not be through the roof, biofuel production has taken up the slack that used to be met by surplus government purchase. The result is that we no longer have a large reserve of surplus food products in case of an emergency or a famine. In other words, the world is living more “hand to mouth” than ever and there is no national “pantry” of stored food that could be thrown into the breech in case of need.
See other links there for more on Mayon and other Philippine volcanoes.
But it’s not JUST Mayon volcano that needs watching…
My family were the tourists in the exclusion zone. To get there they rode 3 ATVs straight past a military checkpoint where the 4 soldiers were sound asleep. The guide was great. He took them up to the 2006 lava flow and they climbed it. A photo journalist joined them and took pictures.
There were in fact 5 of them but 3 are Filipinos. We stayed 3 nights in Legazpi at the Venezia Hotel about 14km from the volcano. All the residents we spoke to said there would not be a big eruption, that the slow lava flows and gas clouds were all that would happen. They are spectacular at night. There are vents low down on the slopes which emit constant gasses.
While there we also swam with the whale sharks at Donsol. There are a lot more there than normal for this time of year as the krill supply is good.
crosspatch (19:19:13) :
Ergo the need to prepare. The biofuel is so far a bust as it costs more to produce than what can be gotten out of it. Dump the food crop biofuel subsidies and store the excess for emergency reserve. They can still make biofuel out of crop chaff that has no other purpose.
I just hope we are in time to remove the blockheads standing in the way of saving our butts from potential famine.
I grew up and lived less than 20 miles from Mount Pinatubo and I never knew it existed until it exploded. I’m no volcanologist, but I think Mayon is quite different, and I’m hoping this will be a non-event.
@Gail Combs (17:22:57) :
“…but that type of info never makes the news.”
Absolutely right. That is why AGW propaganda has been so successful!
@Curiousgeorge (18:15:19) :
Taking into account rbateman’s comments (19:05:29), the corn situation is a textbook study in (ab)using the public domain to try to alter the market’s perception of supply/demand. The “unharvested” corn due to weather is probably insignificant…because the “shortage” of corn was fabricated. The corn cost has just about kept pace with the cost of storing corn. And on top of that, the “hoarders” who kept corn out of the market by storing ended up taking losses because the corn degraded in storage, and the quality of the corn has diminished in the last several months! Even so, the cost has not skyrocketed. No shortage exists…period. The “food vs. fuel” argument is absolute BS! The current cost of corn is (IMHO) quite in line with supply/demand given the nominal increase in demand for corn for ethanol production. The bottom line is that EVERY market will try to benefit from very publicly proclaimed changes in supply/demand.
I certainly hope those of you that are pontificating on biofuels have studied “Climate” more than you have Energy, and Agriculture.
Meanwhile, down near Tonga a a new island has formed. That must have been some eruption to pop up like that.
This is a volcano straight out of central casting. I don’t think you see quite this much magma in the ones that go KABOOM, but what do I know?
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/gallery/122909_volcano?pg=4
THIS VOLCANO IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN MAYON:
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/12/soufriere_hills_causing_flight.php
It was also active during the Little Ice Age causing some major eruptions.
Volcanic activity during the past week:
New Activity/Unrest: | Bezymianny, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Mayon, Luzon | Poás, Costa Rica | Redoubt, Southwestern Alaska | San Cristóbal, Nicaragua
Ongoing Activity: | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat | Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
Recent NASA Satellite Images and Scienceblog Eruptions report:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=42001
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=41596
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=41544
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=41529
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/12/redoubt_returns.php
In the meanwhile, and speaking of potential disasters…
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/secret-plan-to-save-earth-from-asteroid-20091231-lk3g.html
The Russians are claiming serious work and resources need to be directed at the possible diversion of asteroid “Apophis” in 26 years. Apparently the asteroid, which is 350m in diameter, is paying us a visit then.
I find the statistical correlation between solar minimums and volcanic activity to be interesting, but not yet convincing. If it is something more than a statistical coincidence, about the only mechanism I can think of for causation would be geomagnetic; the weakening of the sun’s magnetic field causing changes in Earth’s field, with effects deep within the Earth, via mechanisms unknown. If this theory ever proves out, I suspect that the mechanisim will be interesting indeed.
Mayon…I don’t think we’ll see Pinatubo style climactic impact from Mayon, unless it produces an atypically large eruption (far larger than its history would suggest.)
Yellowstone.. Even if the ground swelling is a precursor to an eruption, it’s probably nothing to worry about from a global perspective; the vast majority of volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone have been of a conventional size, not the giant-caldera-forming events such as 600k years ago.
CJ