Mayon – Shades of Pinatubo
Here’s a recent AP report and bulletin from local authorities. Meanwhile, fools rush in as 2400 tourists a day flock to the area.
From the Philippine institute of Volcanologyand Seismology
30 December 2009 7:00 AM
For the past 24 hours, one ash explosion occurred at Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). The explosion produced a dirty white ash column that rose to about 100 meters above the summit and drifted to the northwest. Lava continued to flow down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. The lava front has now reached about 5.9 kilometers from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully.
Mayon Volcano’s seismic network recorded 16 volcanic earthquakes. A total of 150 rock fall events related to the detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes was also detected by the seismic network. Yesterday’s measurement of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate yielded an average value of 4,397 tonnes per day (t/d). The volcano edifice remains inflated as indicated by the electronic tilt meter installed at the northeast sector of the volcano.
The status of Mayon Volcano is maintained at Alert Level 4. PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. In addition, Civil Aviation Authorities must advise pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano’s summit as ejected ash and volcanic fragments from sudden explosions may pose hazards to aircrafts. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Long live Harry Truman, but then again I don’t think they ever found his corpse after St. Helens went bang.
Ric Werme (17:57:22) :
“Greg (13:51:02) : What would be a safe distance from that? What would be the guestimated radius of total destruction?”
It’s hard to define total destruction. The USGS has some maps of how far volcanic ash reached after some Yellowstone and a Long Valley California eruption.
IIRC, they originally figured out the size of the eruptions after it was discovered that about 4 FEET of ash had fallen in Nebraska and a nice set of fossiles resulted with interesting features showing they died from a particular lung disease caused by dust inhalation… “minor inconvenience” would likely start in Europe in the first week. NYC would probably “have issues” with lung diseases starting in the first week…
I looked it up on a map once and coastal California south of San Francisco was in the “Well, you might not get much ash fall if the winds don’t get all screwed up” zone… Basically, “North America” ceases to function as anything other than a graveyard unless you are in the very southwest or up toward Alaska. (Though some of the far N.East and S.East might get a pass depending on what happens to winds… at least for a few weeks.)
Then a month or so later the weather goes so horridly bad that farming will happen in the topics… maybe… and if they can get some cold weather low light seeds from somewhere really quickly.
IMHO, global civilization would likely collapse. Our system is now built on “just in time” for way too much stuff (food, fuel, minerals, manufactures) and in any big “oopsy” like this the system will suffer catastrophic breakdown.
Global shipping would halt pretty quickly and with it the global sourcing and supply chain that everything depends on these days. For example, from where would you get repair parts for: GM, Ford, Chrysler products in week one? And for Mercedes, BMW, Citroen, Renault, etc. in month two? From where would Japan get food in month three? Then were do Honda, Toyota, etc. parts come in month six? From where does OPEC get food in month three? Not N. America and not Europe. Not from a glaciating Russia.
How long does the Boeing fleet fly with no spare parts from N. America?
So how does oil keep flowing if OPEC is devolving into food riots? OPEC is a major food importing group that is way over the local carrying capacity of their lands. Much of that food comes from N. America…
We really do need start moving off this planet. Too many hazards here.
That is so painfully true, and so completely ignored.
The only good news is that super volcanoes are so rare that we could easily have evolved into another species before the next one goes off… Lets just say that I don’t lose any sleep over them. Rocks from space have a much higher probability of killing us all off before the next super volcano event, so just rememeber:
“Never panic about a global catatastrophe before it’s time. -E.M.Smith”
Strangely, that’s one of the reasons that the AGW threat doesn’t get me worked up. Even if real, the onset would take 100 years or more to really notice and we’ve adapted to as much change already in the world over the last centuries. The need to “hype it” to get people motivated is a prime bit of evidence that it isn’t really an important risk.
IIRC we get a ‘continent killer’ asteroid about every 50,000 years? and a ‘mess up a continent’ size about every 10,000 ? Something like that. “City Killers” ought to be about every 100 to 200 years (Tunguska sized…). And every year about 2 “bangs” go off in the air somewhere the size of a small nuke; they are just almost universally over the 80% of the planet that is nearly empty so nobody much notices. They had to put special processing on the early nuclear surveilance satellites to discriminate the ‘double peak’ of a real nuke from the single peak of an air burst rock from space.
So I worry about nuclear war first, rocks from space second, and then after a whole bunch of other stuff, you can get to supervolcanos, and somewhere a long ways behind THEM would be AGW consequences … if any.
And folks wonder why I have a self reliance ethos and a (modest) DIY food storage system…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/food-storage-systems/
BTW, you ought to have a fire hood or gas mask first, then a water purification system second, then environmental protection (i.e. tent and bag, warm clothing in the car trunk), and only after THAT to you really need to worry about food. The “precedence order” is from least density to most density. You need breathable air within minutes, water within days, food? Well, some of us could go a few months…
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/05/27/crisis-kits-and-preparedness-packs/
Oh, and if you live in a place colder than California or do not have a car to sleep in in an emergency, you might want to move the “warm shelter” ahead of water on the list. In the snow, warmth is needed in minutes to hours, water not so much…
Well, this is getting a bit maudlin… so I think I’ll stop now. While it isn’t likely any of that stuff will be needed, when you do need it, it is a 100% need. During our last big quake our here it was really handy.
Mike Atkins (12:11:23) :
“If this blows, how big would it be? If it is big, could it have an impact on temperatures?”
According to an article in Gulf News, the “experts” were predicting “spew out more than 60 million cubic metres of lava” That works out to about 130,800,000 – 135,000,000 metric tonnes of magma.. if my guess at it being felsic magma and doing a rough guess at 2.18 to 2.25 gm/cm3 (Rhyolite) is halfway correct.
By comparison, Mt Pinatubo – ~10 billion metric tonnes in the 1991 eruption. If the SO2 and ejecta are about the same ratio… and if the Gulf News statement is correct… that’s about 1/100 of Mt Pinatubo’s event.
Arizona CJ (22:01:21) :
I find the statistical correlation between solar minimums and volcanic activity to be interesting, but not yet convincing. If it is something more than a statistical coincidence, about the only mechanism I can think of for causation would be geomagnetic…
Could it possibly be gravitational? Consider how massive the Sun is compared to Earth, and how close we are. The assorted solar currents, surges, and storms must involve enormous amounts of mass shifting about. While treating the Sun as a point source of gravity might be good for modeling and computations, there could be variations in the actual strength of the gravitational field, especially at the edges of the more severe events. Can it be possible that one side of our planet could feel a stronger gravitational pull than the other side, that the planet is being washed over with an invisible “map” of varying gravitational forces? We have done satellite mapping of the varying gravitation across the surface of the Earth. Wouldn’t the Earth, a satellite of the Sun, notice variations across the surface of the Sun?
We live on the solidified scum that floats on a molten core-covering ocean. If the height of these proposed fluctuations occur at solar maximums, then perhaps the relatively thin crust is “flexed” in a way that relieves stresses. One could check if they coincide with increased amounts of seismic activity, perhaps lots of smaller earthquakes instead of fewer larger ones. This may aid in temporarily relieving pressures that lead to noticeable volcanic activity. At solar minimums the mechanism is not working, stresses build up, we get more noticeable volcanic activity. I say “noticeable volcanic activity” in that eruptions and lava flows are very much noticed, but an increased amount of venting through odd “cracks” may be much less noticed although that would be relieving pressures.
It is late, I am going to bed, and hoping I did a good job of proofreading. Later on I may well consider this whole concept completely ridiculous, as helped along by more knowledgeable commentators. But at this moment, eh, seems worth considering.
DirkH (18:28:17) : edit
“Ric Werme (17:57:22) :
[…]
We really do need start moving off this planet. Too many hazards here.”
The risk of a deadly accident while escaping the planet far outweighs the lifetime risk of volcano eruptions.
For the individual. But for the species, the risk profile is exactly opposite. If we, as a species, stay on this rock, we are ultimately doomed. 100% risk of extermination. It’s an odd thing, but true.
We don’t need anything like a Yellowstone or Long Valley eruption to fairly well wipe out our current culture as we know it. A fairly typical Krakatoa eruption, such as the one in AD 535 would do just fine.
It took 10 years after that eruption for sunlight to return to normal in the Northern Hemisphere. You might know the upheaval it caused by the name of “The Dark Ages”.
That planetary scale CO2 emitter looks just a little bit bigger than the tail pipe end of a Volkswagen.
E.M.Smith (23:45:09) :
“IMHO, global civilization would likely collapse. Our system is now built on “just in time” for way too much stuff (food, …”
And if Obama gets his way, things will only get worse. I found this over at Greeniwatch.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/29/forests-vs-food-study-worries-agriculture-chief/
Whoever has the land to grow his own veggies had better start optimizing that, and soon.
Quite worrying that quite a few volcanoes are popping off. What really scares me are the invisible deep ocean volcanoes and the growing North Atlantic ridge.
These have the capability of altering deep ocean currents and could trigger long-term climate change by, for example, slowing the flow warm water to the Arctic and changing the direction of the thermoline flow.
@sHx (16:49:40) :
It was the Volcán Galeras. See http://content.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=4883
Also http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/Erupcion_enero_14_1993 (in Spanish) where you can see a photo of some of the scientists.
Also http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/images/e/e1/Actividad_historica_galeras.pdf (in Spanish) has photos of the volcano, caldera, eruptions and interesting graphs.
Also http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/Actividad_histórica has a photo and diagram of an interesting petroglyph of an eruption of Galeras (hi-res image here: http://intranet.ingeominas.gov.co/pasto/images/0/00/Prictografo_de_El_Higueron_Genoy.jpg)
How long does the Boeing fleet fly with no spare parts from N. America?
How long does anything fly without engines, regardless of their origin? Volcanic ash and turbine blades don’t play well together…
Gary (12:26:22) :
Youre just complexing the complexity of a complex complex…….
Just a small correction, which might already be corrected. Most tables for the amount of SO2 that the US puts out annually is in thousands of short tons. So if it reads 18,000 then that would really be like 18 million short tons per year, or about 3,000 days of this volcano’s output. These are rough numbers pulled from thin air, mind you. Pun intended. I mention this just because an earlier post posited that the volcano is putting out in a few days what the US does in a year. You may redact this if it has already been corrected.
“Luckily Mayon doesn’t historicly erupt like Pinatubo does, ie blow up.”
Not sure what a ‘blow up’ VEI number might be. Mayon erupted in 1814 killing 3400 at VEI 6 adding to the Dalton colding. Laki began in 1784, Soufriere about 1812, Tambora in 1816 at VEI 7.
But “correlation does not equal causation”. Find comfort where you can I suppose.
And yet Europe, handicapped by its socialism, has “lapped” America in carbon-trading fraud.
crosspatch (00:09:15) :
> We don’t need anything like a Yellowstone or Long Valley eruption to fairly well wipe out our current culture as we know it. A fairly typical Krakatoa eruption, such as the one in AD 535 would do just fine.
Tambora was 5X the size of Krakatoa. (See the Yellowstone comparison, at my http://wermenh.com/1816.html I list Tambora at 25 mi^3, Krakatoa at 4.5, and St. Helens at 1. Please ignore the silly units.)
> It took 10 years after that eruption for sunlight to return to normal in the Northern Hemisphere.
Reference please? Climatic effects are generally 1-2 years. AFAIK, a larger SO2 aerosol injection into the stratosphere doesn’t materially increase the settling time. Interesting sunsets after Pinatubo took an extra year or so to clear up.
Also, I concluded the key thing about 1816 was that the storm track shifted south and that allowed several incursions of cold weather. Areas south of New England had decent crops, though it may have messed up parts of India and started a migration that spread cholera to, umm, I forget. (My focus has been New England.)
>>>Mother earth is angry at the countless sins we’ve committed against her.
Not half as angry as she was ın the 16th century BC at Santorını, or ın the 8th century AD when an earthquake swarm spread across the Eastern Roman Empıre.
.
“Roger Knights (05:49:55) :
DirkH (19:14:53) :
“Ah America with its ruthless capitalism. Break rules, get rich. What an expression of the Will To Power. A truely Nietzschean country.”
And yet Europe, handicapped by its socialism, has “lapped” America in carbon-trading fraud.”
Thank you. Yes, that is our newest masterpiece.
Interesting articles you wrote, I have been doing essentially identically the same thing for over 35 years myself. Many people today forget how a major wheat crop failure in the USSR back in the 1970s spiked world food prices. Folks whine about corn and other food crop price increases this last year in 2009 dollars in the 1970’s corn rose to almost $16 a bushel (2009 USD) from this past years approx $3.50-$4.00 prices, or recent spikes near $& (2009 USD).
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Corn/corn_inflation_chart.htm
Major crop failures can and do happen even in modern agriculture, it is a continuous race to stay one step ahead of grain rust epidemics etc. not to mention weather. Add in a few geographic emergencies, like freezes in countries that produce key crops or political upset and the just in time delivery system is quite brittle. In the 1970’s we also had sudden shortages of sugar and coffee that caused major price spikes in those commodities. For the U.S. these have traditionally been simply major inconveniences, but in other countries, folks have gone hungry. Having even a few days worth of food in the pantry is worth while.
During the Colorado “Blizzard of 1982” which basically shut down the city to vehicle traffic for days, the local corner grocery outlets were wiped clean of foods like bread and milk with in 36 hours. At about 48 hours into the emergency the owner of the corner convenience store asked me if I could make a food run for her. The local bakery in the city was making bread again but the bread trucks could not move in the unplowed side streets. She gave me money and I drove down and filled the back of a 1976 full size Jeep Cherokee SUV with fresh bread. It was all sold by late that evening, as local home owners were walking up to a mile in the snow just to get food basics. Many people cannot live out of their cupboards for more than 2-3 days without running out of most foods as they are used to stopping off on the way home from work to pickup food, or at most buy groceries on a weekly basis.
Even if it is not a major emergency for you, you are doing a public service by taking load off the emergency shelters, as one less family needs to depend on emergency services to get by.
It would be useful if more people were simply aware of their local history of severe storms. The Billizard of ’82 that shut down most of Denver only dropped about 24 inches of snow in most areas, but drifts to 4 ft. IN December of 1913 Denver got 45 inches of snow in a single storm with drifts to the second story windows of down town hotels. My Uncle’s father helped load coal sacks through the windows of those hotels to keep folks from freezing. The same storm today would bring the city to a standstill for 1-2 weeks.
http://tpscolorado.wordpress.com/2008/12/09/denver-blizzard-of-1913/
Larry
Another interesting story of the blizzard of 1913 in the Denver area.
http://denver.yourhub.com/Golden/Stories/News/Story~166343.aspx
Larry
How many times per century (for the past 500 years, say) do major volcanic eruptions occur (that could influence climate)?
Do the UEA’s models for the 21st century temperature projections incoporate the requisite number of volcanoes?
Hmmm…
This info only goes back about 150 years —
http://www.authorsden.com/visit/viewarticle.asp?id=40379&AuthorID=14304
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TOMS_SO2_time_nov03.png
http://www.vulkaner.no/v/volcan/latinam/chicon-e.html
Name – duration of cooling effect — date of major eruption
Laki ———- 2-5 years ———– erupted in 1783
Tambora —— 2-5 years ———– erupted in 1815
Krakatau —— 2-3 years ———– erupted August 26 – 27, 1883
Katmai ——– 1-3 years ———– June 6-9, 1912 (second largest eruption of 20th century)
Surtsey ——– 2 cold winters – Northern hemissphere only — 5 June 1967
St. Helens —— 1-3 years ———– May 18, 1980
El Chicon ——- 1-3 years ———– March 1982
Pinatubo ——- 2-5 years ———– June 1991
That makes the intervals as:
32 years Laki to Tambora
29 years Krakatau to Tambora
55 years Tatami to Surtsey
13 years Surtsey to St. Helens
2 years St. Helens to El Chicon
9 years El Chicon to Pinatubo
18 years to Current date 2009
The average for the above 6 major eruptions from Laki to Pinatubo is 23.33 years interval.
Larry
Okay lets try this again — correction
That makes the intervals as:
32 years Laki to Tambora*
29 years Tambora to Krakatau*
68 Krakatau to Katmai
55 years Katami to Surtsey
13 years Surtsey to St. Helens
2 years St. Helens to El Chicon
9 years El Chicon to Pinatubo
The average for the 7 intervals between the above 8 major eruptions from Laki to Pinatubo is 29.7 years between major eruptions.
Obviously there is a lot of variation so I am not sure an average interval means a whole lot.
Larry
John (15:58:27) :
ICE AGE!!!!
Alarmist!
All the global warmongers rejoice as they now will have a reason to explain the quickly dropping temperatures. It was volcanic ash that blocked the sun, and this will be the first volcano ever to account for more than 20 years of cold weather.