The sun has seen a resurgence of activity in December, with a number of cycle 24 sunspots being seen. The latest is group 1039 seen below:
2009 is ending with a flurry of sunspots. Indeed, if sunspot 1039 holds together just one more day (prediction: it will), the month of December will accumulate a total of 22 spotted days and the final tally for the year will look like this: From Spaceweather.com
The dark line is a linear least-squares fit to the data. If the trend continues exactly as shown (prediction: it won’t), sunspots will become a non-stop daily occurance no later than February 2011. Blank suns would cease and solar minimum would be over.
If the past two years have taught us anything, however, it is that the sun can be tricky and unpredictable.
Jim Cross (14:32:41) :
Has anyone theorized about the effects of the cooling thermosphere and reduced ionization in the ionosphere on global climate?
It would seem that there would at least some effect of global electrical potential that could affect clouds of water vapor.
The work of Dr. Brian A. Tinsley may be of interest to you:
“There are good correlations, on the day-to-day time scale, between the three solar wind – modulated inputs to Jz mentioned above and small changes in atmospheric temperature and dynamics. Dr. Tinsley has hypothesized that the atmospheric responses are due to changes in the electrical interactions between charged aerosol particles and droplets.”
http://www.utdallas.edu/nsm/physics/faculty/tinsley.html
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=8pjd9xpp
wakeupmaggy (15:28:38) :
Jimbo (14:23:14) :
OT –
.Bands had been fitted to penguins’ flippers, but they affected flight and increased the chances of the birds dying
“Duh, “flight” as in flying???? Did I miss something? HAHA, but maybe they meant escape from predators…”
————————————
Please note wakeupmaggy I quoted the BBC :o)
Leif Svalgaard (15:29:50) :
Perhaps Oliver can give you his imitation of a great scientist
I never post ad homs as you well know.
Well if you accidentally post ad homs like that one on my blog, I’ll accidentally delete it for you. 🙂
With TSI constant equal 1366 ± 0.5 W/m² the last 300 years, I am not sure whether we can blame an increasing sun for the global warming since the little ice age. However, the good news is that a constant sun perfectly well can lead to global warming if the heat balance of our planet is not in equilibrium. We may argue that our planet never had any chance to reach equilibrium because of oscillations between:
1. day and night,
2. summer and winter,
3. ice ages and warmer periods.
Not to mention various volcanic activity and other unknown factors. The time required to heat or cool our oceans to balance the outgoing Stefan-Boltzmann radiation with the input from the sun may be substantial – maybe several hundred years. In this context the importance of the sunspots for our climate seems somewhat exaggerated – our climate can perfectly well oscillate alone, with our without them…
I did not mean to start a debate with my post about the solar system mechanics and the sun (sun spots cycles). I simply mentioned it here to let people know that there maybe a link. Since the movement of our solar system around the galactic arms can affect long term climate cycles, I found the possible link between planetary cycles – sun spots cycles – and climate cycles, interesting.
I am no experts on those matters, but like many, I always have fun to make links.
I would have liked a bit more information from Leif Svalgaard why he thinks that link is “meaningless”. But I will still sleep fine if he does not.
Exerpt: “Science, Politics and Global Warming” by Wallace Thornhill
‘The solar discharge has a very effective feedback system to maintain steady radiant output while the electrical power input varies. In fact, the solar radiant energy is termed a “solar constant,” which is critical to the AGW argument. However, no account is taken of the variable electrical power focused on the Sun but intercepted by the planets. The electrical connections have been traced from the Sun to the Earth’s magnetosphere; from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere; and from the ionosphere into weather systems. No one can claim to be “a climate expert” while ignorant of the electrical nature of the solar system. This common energy source explains the reports of simultaneous warming on other planets. The Sun’s galactic power source is the main driver of climatic variability. Human carbon emissions count for nothing in comparison.’
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=8pjd9xpp
In fact wakeupmaggy I’ll make you laugh some more. I used to work at the BBC over a decade ago and one of my managers in research proclaimed that dolphins were fish, while another researcher at my same level swore that spiders were insects. The honest truth. :o)
I have to admit I missed the penguin flight nonsense when quoting the BBC. That’s how good I was. :o(
Robuk (15:29:51) :
Just to be clear, can this referred to equipment (http://www.leif.org/research/Wolf-Telescope.png) see every speck that has been counted as a spot from 1995 to the present.
Without actually having looked myself, I nevertheless think so [Frauenhofer’s refractors – although 200 years old – are still among the best]. Modern observers also use small telescopes [for obvious reasons]. The main difference with Wolf and modern counts is that Wolf deliberately did not count pores and specks. His assistant, Wolfer, disagreed and his opinion ‘won the day’ when Wolf died. To compensate for the overcount, Wolfer determined that modern counts should be reduced [by multiplying by 0.6] to match Wolf’s scale. For example, if there is exactly one spot visible, the Wolf number will be W = 10*1 + 1 = 11, which will be reported by SIDC as 11*0.6 = 7, but by SWPC [Boulder] as 11 [as they do not try to replicate Wolf’s series]. You can see the difference at the bottom of http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png where the green curve is the SWPC number and the little black specks the SIDC numbers.
MattN (15:30:02) :
So is #23 officially over? What was the length?
The length is kind of meaningless as the cycle starts before the ‘minimum’ and ends after it. But if you ignore reason and just blindly want a number I would say 12 1/3 years.
Is the sun spot count inclusive or exclusive of sales tax:-)
Leif Svalgaard (11:33:45) :
Leif Svalgaard (11:19:58) :
wws (11:04:54) :
Dr. Svalgaard, I believe you correctly called the low point of the minimum long before anyone else that I know of did.
The NASA-NOAA panel [of which I’m a member] also called December 2008 as the minimum.
Actually Leif predicted the low point of the minimum to be Aug 2008….surprised he did not correct wws’s statement?
There is a long way to go before the SSN reaches 50, the SIDC report is the one to watch for at the end of the month and then the Layman’s Count soon after. The Layman’s count is the only count that compares apples with apples.
It is interesting that some are now conceding a grand minimum could be in the making. Also interesting that the Babcock believers have no answer for two low cycles that usually go together during grand minima…..the “crap shoot” logic obviously failing.
Anthony should quickly put up a post titled:
“BBC says that penguins can fly! << Watts Up With That?"
Source:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/uk_news/england/leicestershire/8434390.stm
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Good night all and a happy new year. Good luck Anthony for 2010 and keep up the hard work; still a long way to go before the finishing post I suspect. :0)
Jimbo,
Sorry, I thought you saw it too, didn’t mean to skip the quotations and link to make you look as stupid as the BBC.
I tried really hard to imagine a penguin flying, before I posted something stupid, AND off topic, thinking surely there must be some species in the antecatarctical zonio of which I wasn’t aware, or that I’m senile.
Thanks for the humor:)
.”Bands had been fitted to penguins’ flippers, but they affected flight and increased the chances of the birds dying, while metal or plastic rings fitted to their legs were causing cuts and sores. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/uk_news/england/leicestershire/8434390.stm
I think a good measure of when things get going in this sunspot cycle would be the appearance of M-Class or higher flares. I believe the highest X-Ray flares, so far, were only around C-5, or so.
Zeke the Sneak (15:51:36) : Hey Zeke, you are risking to being taken to the Inquisition. You know Inquisition means “questioning” but with much more effective methods….Or you´ll be condemned by a convenient “peer reviewing”, or anatemized by the Lord of Darkness himself!
The trouble with the theory you mention is that it is really a “key” to understand the universe and that is extremely blasphemous, it would debunk astrophysics like in a climate-gate process. Try to be respectful with the sacrosant and holy church of the settled and ex-chatedra science and its representatives on this world.
Leif Svalgaard (14:44:59) : Wondrous that Anthony puts up with this, but I guess that shows his great tolerance for fringe comments.
Sometimes grabbing a salty sour pickle makes you appreciate that Merlot and Brie so much more 😉
But seriously, I do think that ‘fringe discussions’ are interesting precisely because they add some unexpected spice to the pot luck. Yes, sometimes the unexpected Jalapeno can be a bit vexing, but at other times one may be looking for something to shake up their comfortable predictable day…
Leif Svalgaard (14:44:59) : Wondrous that Anthony puts up with this, but I guess that shows his great tolerance for fringe comments.
This is reminiscent of the CRU emails, trying to oppress opposing views so that only yours is left.
REPLY: Oh that does it. Here’s your posts all over this thread and many others and you say this? I suggest you apologize before you post another single comment. You have your own blog, and as I’ve indicated, you should discuss these topics there. – Anthony
Not to worry!!! Apparently Al Gore will be visiting the Sun this weekend so we won’t be seeing any more sun spots for a while!!
Ref – E.M.Smith (17:07:56) :
“Sometimes grabbing a salty sour pickle makes you appreciate that Merlot and Brie so much more ;-)… Yes, sometimes the unexpected Jalapeno can be a bit vexing, but at other times one may be looking for something to shake up their comfortable predictable day…”
___________
Me thinks thee thinks too much of thyself and not enough of those in the room with ye
Zeke
I’ve read some of Tinsley’s papers recently so I am still educating myself about the topic.
It seems like the main focus of this research is in using the global atmospheric energy as a sort of global thermometer with the energy driving it being generated primarily by the heating in the lower atmosphere. However, I am talking more about a top down approach where reduced energy in the upper atmosphere affects clouds, water vapor, and eventually temperature in the lower.
Of course, all of that may already be in the research but I seldom see it talked about on the climate blogs I follow. It may be there but, as I said, I am just starting to looking at it myself.
for those interested in the sun stuff and with much much more knowledge than me, NASA propose an innocentive challenge to forecast Solar Particle Event
” NASA Challenge: Data-Driven Forecasting of Solar Events
Challenge Reward: $30,000 USD Challenge Type: RTP INNOCENTIVE 9059496
Forecasting solar activity is important for future manned and unmanned exploration of the solar system. The Seeker wishes to develop the ability to forecast the occurrence of a Solar Particle Event (SPE) within a select window in time. Methods must make use of current real-time space weather measurements and/or archived space weather data. ”
http://gw.innocentive.com/ar/disciplineSearch?challenge-order-by=desc&challenge-sort-by=postedDate&viewMode=abstract&challenge-search-text=9059496
Anthony,
I have nothing to apologize for. You have stated that certain area’s of science are off limits here and Leif is encouraging you to keep it that way. The same thing happened over at solarcycle24.
It is your prerogative to not include certain area’s of science but I find that non scientific. I have kept my views subdued according to your wishes but find it difficult when one scientist tries to silence opposing views. Havent you noticed the Leif clashes violently with every other scientist that has made an appearance here?
The big picture needs to be looked at in my opinion.
REPLY: Well then I guess it is goodbye. You have your own blog where you can discuss the issues that interest you to your heart’s content, and since you refuse to abide by my wishes here in my “home on the internet”, or even to apologize for failing to do so, I’m going to show this unruly guest the door. The decision is mine, Leif is not involved in my making this decision. I’m simply tired of asking again and again to limit these discussions. I’ve asked nicely, and have been ignored, then see others insulted with an accusation that you refuse to apologize for. Had your chance, goodbye. – Anthony
/hyperbole on
The recent burst of sunspots shall soon subside. Come mid-January we should see four or five months of near non-activity, followed by a gradual upwelling of activity for a year, culminating in sunspot numbers averaging around 40 come June of 2011 and maintaining a sunspot number between 40 and 50 for 18 months or so, only to dip slightly near or below 10 during the spring of 2013.
What does this mean for us here on Earth ? Absolutely nothing. What we should consider is what are we going to do come 2016 through 2035.
The threat of global cooling will greatly effect us more than anything the alarmists of AGW could ever imagine.
I felt it was a bit necessary to go over the top to help remind many of you wishing to bicker about subjectivity that there is larger more pressing matters than your opinions on your understanding of science and our need to set aside differences of opinion and collaborate together to predict with certainty the future of our planet and the responsibility we have to prepare for 50 or so years of declining temperatures.
There are scientists among us now that should disregard the pseudo-scientists baits and traps and start laying out guidelines for us to follow if we are to overcome what our sun is challenging us with.
Time to educate is over and the time to lead is now.
/hyperbole off
Well then I guess it is goodbye
Looks like I was right when I coined the phrase “AnthonyGate” your censorship is no different to what we see at Realclimate.
History will judge you. Another sad day for science, it would have been smarter to take up my suggestion months ago of a special one off ongoing thread where these issues could be dealt with…without interfering with the rest of your blog. Open science would have been the benefactor.
Having said that I have always appreciated the marvelous work you have done with the fight against AGW…its a pity you dont you see my quest in the same light.
REPLY: All you had to do was apologize. You missed the important cue of knowing when not to pushback.
Actually my actions are a lot different than that of RealClimate, they’ll simply delete your comments (yours are still intact here) whereas I’ve asked nicely, many times, that I don’t wish to discuss these topics. And, they have been discussed here again and again. In fact, WUWT has 1470 comments with your name attached to it. See a screencap of the search result:
Quite a volume of “censorship” eh?
I’ve said to you repeatedly that I don’t want to discuss these issues on my blog. You have your own websites, discuss them there in open science or under any other structure you wish, but I don’t want the discussions here. The fact that you continually push the topic despite my wishes, and then resort to accusative ad homs when for the umteenth time I say “please stop”, says much. I’m simply tired of it.
If history judges me badly so be it. Feel free to add “Barycentric denier” to the list of ugly labels people apply to me.
For any readers that wish to discuss Barycentrism, iron sun theory, and the electric universe please go to Geoff’s websites:
http://landscheidt.wordpress.com
http://landscheidt.info
The way I see it, if these theories have merit, you should be able to gather a following there, but I’m done with the thread hijacking and traffic freeloading here. Time to spread your wings and fly on your own. I wish good luck to you.
– Anthony
JonesII (17:00:10) :
Zeke the Sneak (15:51:36) : Hey Zeke, you are risking to being taken to the Inquisition.
Nah – “Science, Politics and Global Warming” makes its own case so aptly you can just post it and take the rest of the night off! 🙂
I thought others might enjoy an engaging discussion about Copenhagen, science, the media, the leaked emails, weather on other planets, and earth in its space environment and how that potentially drives climate.
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=8pjd9xpp
Leif can you tell me when this plot was last updated?
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
No time stamp so I have to ask.
Anthony