Major northern hemisphere cold snap coming

Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative

Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:

What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.

The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:

THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.

Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:

I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.

If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.


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The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
Which will be trumpeted by the Usual Suspects as further proof of AGW…

Gregg E.

Got about an inch of “warming” on the ground outside my front door right now. I live about two blocks from the Idaho/Oregon border in Weiser, ID.
“Above average” temps in the west? Not here! This area usually gets snow around two or three times each winter, though once in a while it gets a lot of snow. Already above average/normal for the year now.

Chris Reed

We have seen snow here in Houston two years in a row. That has not happened before in recorded history. I think we will see snow one more time before winter ends. Houston has not seen a temperature of 19F or lower since Dec. 1990 (at the reporting stations at least). I bet we will see that this winter. I remember back in the 80’s and early 90’s it was cold all the time. I’ve had several friends, co-worker and family members comment to me that they can’t remember it being this cold, this long since the 80’s.
I think this has more to do with the volcanoes that went off last year than anything else. They were high latitude volcanoes, so maybe the study about them has some merit. The El Nino is playing some part, but Joe Bastradi has been saying, the El Nino is not driving the pattern, rather it is being driven by the pattern.

boballab

Anthony the reason you probably didn’t find anything from the UK Met Ofiice is because they are still trying to get the egg off their face from the big snow storm that came through the UK. The Telegraph has an article with a comment from the Met Office

A Met Office spokesman said: “That forecast was dealing with the whole of the winter. December has certainly been cold but the prediction is for December, January and February.”
He believed the “climate team” was updating the prediction “perhaps over the course of the next week.”
The spokesman added: “It has certainly been a cold winter so far in most parts but the seasonal forecast has not been proven one way or the other.”
He said the weather was expected to remain cold for “the next week or so” but he could not comment on the longer term.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020868/the-uk-meterological-office-slightly-less-reliable-than-tea-leaves-or-cock-entrails/

Ok ok, WUWT readers/authors. You’ve proved your point. Global warming has stopped, and it’s very cold outside. We get it. You win. Now quit whatever it is you are doing to make it so #%^$ cold. Turn off your ‘Gore effect’. I can’t stand any more freezing weather, and it’s only December!

Eggsuckindog

Anthoney I come here often but don’t post as I’m not an expert but really enjoy this place – I’m in Tampa and freezing my ass off already but those maps sure look like I better get some more firewood – just say’in
I think I’m right can anybody help out

photon without a Higgs

Piers Corbyn has also forecast extreme cold, something along these same lines.

Atomic Hairdryer

Not to worry. Field engineers are busy fitting weather monitoring stations with thermometer calibration jackets connected back to the IPCC modelling centres. Temperatures will continue to be as predicted.

Martin Brumby

Well, it took me a little while to find it (now, they couldn’t be trying to hide it, SURELY?) but here is the MET Office’s forecast dated 27 November 2009. (That’s right, just over a month ago!)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/?zoneid=79042
It is also confirmed by:-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231668/Forecasters-predict-mild-winter-Britain-Prince-Charles-visits-flood-hit-Cockermouth.html
Not to mention:-
http://www.energyhelpline.com/news/article.aspx?aaid=18801304&y=2008&m=9&w=4&pid=1
(Gosh! Cheap energy bills! Brilliant!)
You will see that after their previous fiasco last year:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080925.html
The MET Office’s prediction THIS time round gives 50% chance of a mild winter, 30% chance of a near average winter and 20% chance of a colder winter. Is that what’s called spread betting? I’ve got a small coin! I can do that! “Give us a job!”
And what have Joe Bastardi and Piers Corbyn been predicting? Gosh, and they haven’t got a £30 Million Super computer which is so clever that it says just what the climate will be doing in 90 years time!
Hey, I pay my taxes!
Can I have my share of £30 Million back, towards my “cheaper” energy bills?

stephen richards
Layne Blanchard

See that nice warm spot in the upper left corner? I’m happily sitting in it. 🙂
Cheers!

Eggsuckindog

Nevermind I figured out B means go buy firewood at any cost before its gone
Congrats on 30 mill – I also found Russ at NC Media Watch from here and have had fun there – Happy New Year Anthony

Cold Englishman

Warm is good, benign even, cold very bad, and often malign.
In Uk in the winter of 62/3, my father, who had a construction business, with a large workforce, kept his people on standard pay for thirteen solid weeks of the freeze. It did not bankrupt him, but his business never recovered it’s former liquidity, and over the years there were many layoffs, and disapointments.
Cold periods can have all sorts of unusual consequences, and may have effects for many years.
Urged by the Met Office warm prediction for this winter, Highway Authorities have not stocked up with salt perhaps as much as they should have done, and whilst major highways have been cleared, sidewalks have not, nor local roads, and many folk have had falls, some minor, but for the elderly, very serious. Consequences which are not measured by the AGW crowd.
Make no mistake about it, Joe B is right, it’s going to continue to be cold.
In mid September, I predicted this when I spotted the Sea Ice extent for this year had made its turn from minimum, two weeks earlier than in 2007. If someone like me can draw a reasonable conclusion from this, then why does the Met Office continue with its ridiculous predictions? Frankly I wouldn’t believe their prediction for sunrise…………

Rowgeo

For those in the UK that cannot rely on accurate and unbiased Met Office forecasts, an excellent resource is the Stormsurf pages which give jetstream predictions out to seven days.
Western Europe
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=natla_250
Worldwide
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
The current model is showing an arctic blast descending on western europe for the forecast period.
So much for the CRU predictions of ‘tropical’ winters in the UK. Hopefully the policy makers are looking out of their windows and realising that nature and reality trumps the eco-fascist alarmist frenzy. AGW is over.

It’s a national shame and a scandal that on average, 20,000 people die of the cold each winter, most of them old state pensioners who can’t afford to heat their homes properly.
This winter, pensioners plight will be worsened by the huge increases in the cost of electricity and gas over the last 18 months. If they decide to escape their freezing homes and go to sit in the local pub or library, they risk breaking a hip on the icy pavements which have remained ungritted since the big freeze on Dec 18th.
What is happening to my country? Why do we tolerate the fools we allow to lead us?
Time for change.

Andrew P

We (in the Scottish highlands) have already had a week of very cold weather, when it has been -15C most nights, and rarely above -8C during the day. The Met Office are saying it will rise to 0C today and 4C tomorrow, but they usually over estimate our temperature by at least 4 or 5C in the winter, so I will beleive it when I see it. I suspect that the 40cm of snow we have will be here for long while yet. As I said to a friend last week, this winter so far, and last winter are much more reminiscent of the winters we had in the early 80s. He quickly made the link with the change in the NAO – he is a walking encyclopedia of the environmental sciences so ahead of the game as usual.

Greg

Ok, we’ll note this on our calendars and see how it all pans out.

Which will be trumpeted by the Usual Suspects as further proof of AGW…

but … even the comments in Nature magazine are saying…
NOBODY BELIEVES YOU ANY MORE!

Christoph

Holy Climate Turbulence, Batman! Better buy some offsetting carbon credits.

P Gosselin

Sure, this is only a weather event. At least that’s what you’ll hear from the warmists, other than their utter silence.
But remember, as Anthony mentioned a day or two ago, these things were sopposed to be rare and be out of the picture by now – that according to the world renowned and authoritive MetOffice.
This morning here in northern Germany we woke up to another snow cover. And the 15-day computer forecast by MeteoGroup says more is on the way, and that we’ll be entering the deep-freezer by this weekend. Joe Bastardi was right.
Forget the Met! Go to Joe!

A lot has been made of Greenland ice melting.
South Greenland, if Met office numbers are to be believed, is still in the range (winter) or below (summer) temperatures reached in 1930/40’s.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Sth_Greenland.gif

P Gosselin

You Britons have to rise up and speak out against this huge waste of money, national symbol of incompetence and arrogance called the MetOfiice. They’ve become the laughing stock of the western weather world. (GISS is right behind them).
I feel a lot better now.

James Waring

The Met Office is a joke. It must be born in mind that it is a public body, staffed by rent-seekers who do the least work possible. It regularly issues “forecasts” after the onset of the period to which they pertain. Its accuracy is risible, regularly failing to predict events beyond twelve hours in advance, and being wrong for whole days at a time, although it has unsurprisingly biased its performance targets to its own lowest expectations. It has been appropriated by the alarmist agenda and continually seeks – and receives, unfortunately – funding for its “climate” work, at the expense of its core functions, which are produced to the bare minimum it can get away with.

Pingo

It is set to turn brutal in the UK as well. “Turn”?
Well we had two weeks of sub zero temperatures around Christmas, it has now gone “mild” – ie, above zero. However from New Year’s Day I do not expect to see a return to positive temperatures for a long time thanks to a plunge of Arctic air invading across northern Europe.
We now know the Met Office’s forecast for a mild winter is shown to be an incompetent sham, and their credibility is in complete tatters. Better that they man up and admit that factoring AGW into their seasonal forecasts has meant they have all been busted recently.
From BBQ Summers to dreamed up Mild Winters, they do not come close to the skill of the likes if Piers Corbyn or Joe Bastardi.

crosspatch

But Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco will be above average, heck, the entire state of California will be above average. That’s a lot of votes. Remember, “global warming” isn’t about the reality, it is about what the voters *believe* the reality to be.

David Banks.

I have been reading your site daily for awhile I have to say I am very impressed. I wanted to be a meteorologist when I was younger but had no desire to join the military or go 100000 in school debt. Your crusade over the temperature reading sites confirmed what I felt growing up near D/FW Texas. We had a farm 30 miles north that was always 3-5 degrees cooler than town. Keep up the good work.

Yep, I hate the Met Office site too. This is their current UK long term forecast. Looks fairly typical for this time of year.
UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2010:
There will be a good deal of fine, dry and bright but cold weather across the UK from Sunday and through next week. Sleet and snow showers will affect many northern and eastern parts at times, perhaps becoming more persistent and spreading into some other regions from the middle of next week. Nights will be frosty, with frost locally severe in some areas, and overnight freezing fog will be slow to clear from some inland parts. There is uncertainty from next weekend onwards through the rest of the period with the strongest signal for the weather to remain generally cold with occasional wintry showers, though some western and southwestern parts may become less cold for a time.
Updated: 1154 on Tue 29 Dec 2009

Alberto

In the Netherlands we’re expecting a major cold snap. Already there is speculation about a possible Elfstedentocht, which is a rare skating event.

Caleb

Yesterday was bad enough, in southern New Hampshire. Howling wind and temperatures falling from around 19F at dawn to around 10F at 1:30 in the afternoon. Snow squalls put down two inches of snow, the day before, as the cold air pushed in, and it blew around like dancing ghosts all day.
Strangest was how the gale dug down into hollows and clearings which usually are protected from such arctic blasts. Despite bright sunshine there was nowhere outside to hide.
I wouldn’t have gone outside at all if I could have avoided it, but some aspects of running a farm force you out. I had to rescue seven ducks which looked like they wouldn’t last long in their pen, and move them in with my goats.
My goats usually dislike being cooped up, but when I went to drive them outside they took one look at the snow swirling in the howling wind, and I had a full scale mutiny on my hands. Despite all my yelling, they wheeled and bolted straight back to their pens.
And this is just the beginning?

Rossa

Same thing happening here in UK and Europe. More snow and temps not above 3 in the North though milder in the South West up to 7-8 degrees. They’ve had more rain than snow.
This week there is an Artic wind bringing wind chill factor into the equation with the BBC reporting -7 this morning, for New Year’s Eve tomorrow and that’s during the day. Lowest temps this month so far were -16 in Scotland before Xmas and -18 in Wales this week. Lowest here in Yorkshire has been -10.
We had a power cut just before Xmas and a friend in Glasgow had one on Xmas Day when the daytime temp was -4. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are more to come as the UK is very near its peak generating capacity. With the demand increasing for more heating there could well be widespread power cuts as we go into January.
I would have hoped our govt would take this as a warning that when they start closing down our oldest power stations from 2011 if we get more winters like this there are going to be a lot of people unable to heat their homes. According to official figures we already have 7 million people in fuel poverty in the UK a lot of them elderly. Fuel poverty is classed as being more than 10% of annual income. Average fuel bills are £1200 a year, so anyone on less than £12,000 is affected. That would be mainly those on the state pension with no other form of income, like my Mum and my Dad.
Unfortunately we won’t have any choice in the matter as the EU has decreed that we have to shut the power station down. It’ll be interesting to see if a “new” govt next year can do anything about it. I’m not holding my breath for that one.

Rossa

And just in case we start feeling sorry for ourselves, in Lithuania they are shutting down their nuclear power station now to comply with the main condition set for their entry to the EU. In the middle of winter !!!
It supplies 70% of the country’s power so will have a major impact on their cost of fuel. The prices are forecast to increase by at least 30% in 2010 in the face of an economy that has tanked by 20% and rising unemloyment. They are being forced to get their power from Russia who already uses their power supplies “against” countries such as the Ukraine that were part of the old USSR.
If anyone needs an example of what the EU does, that is a stark warning to the rest of us.

Hold it hold it hold it.. what happened to El Nino with Bermuda shorts and umbrella drinks on the deck in January here at 45ºN 88W? Someone having an AGW protest?
Seriously.. On 1/7 the GFS actually has the 850mb -10C line in southern Alabama, almost at the FL state line. Yowza!
The AGW crowd might lose a few supporters on this one.

In England there appear to be a vague sequence of a 60 year pattern:
60 year summer-winter temperatures moving in the same direction.
60 year summer-winter temperatures moving in the opposite direction.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET.gif
The opposing sequence maybe just starting.

Phillip Bratby

You are right about the Met Office. Piers Corbyn is where to go to get any sensible forecast beyond a few days. The Met office clearly needs some new tea-leaves or seaweed; plus another super computer.

Otter

Should that not be ‘Major Northern Hemisphere cold OH Snap! coming’ ?

UK Sceptic

I live in a rural community so my coal bunker is full, my wood pile is high. My freezer and cupboards are also well stocked. The Met Office can kiss my…

Meanwhile in Australia where we were warned by the Alarmists droughts were going to take over its been widespread rain and floods with more to come!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/keneally-returns-to-rain-soaked-regions/story-e6frg6nf-1225814416050

el gordo

The warmists will say its just weather, but to me it looks like climate change.

Scouse Pete

The 1 in 1000 Year event came round rather quickly since last February’s press release from the Met Office ;-| After all we shouldn’t expect these things except every 100-200 years(Before AGW that is) according to the Met Office……..
I didn’t believe either figure at the time TBH. Current models projecting recording breaking Low Minimum records to tumble over the next 14 day in the UK :-O
But hey, after all it is going to be an ‘above average’ Winter…. Apparently……. Oh, that was the Met Office also. Where are my taxes going again? Tut Tut Tut…..
http://www.meto.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090225.html
“Natural variability of climate means that the UK will continue to see spells of colder weather at times. Although, if it had not been for the general warming already observed in global temperatures, this winter may well have been even colder.
Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future.
“The famously cold winter of 1962/63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 to 200 years before 1850”
Does anyone believe this rubbish anymore?

JuspPassing

He doesn’t mince his words.
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
“I have NOTHING against the Hadley Center, but I will be very curious as to what their outlook is for the rest of the winter and how they will explain what is going on. I think in light of what is going on, with a arrogance of authority in the climate and weather wars obvious (There is no human, or human-made, “authority” that holds the future in their hand and dictates events), before we discuss how hot 2010 will be we need to know why this was not the winter portrayed. And the explanation that December is only one month doesn’t hold water since if they are doing their research on winters like this, they will see why January and February, could and should be as cold or colder.”

anna v

The winter 1984/85 I was in Geneva. That is 25 years ago.
The cold was impossible, -25C at night, 70 cmeters of snow compacted into a mess because Geneva did not have snow plows, the lake keeping the climate tolerably warm. It took over a week for a semblance of order out of chaos.
I remember crying from the pain in my hands when I was leaving the lab at night, the steering wheel was so cold. I went out and bought fur boots, a fur (rabbit) coat and fur mittens. I still have them.
The heating in the lab was not enough and people would light the electric driers for electronics ( like hair driers) to get some heat there.
The nearby French villages were better off, they had snowplows at least because of the mountains.
25 years they say?

Bill Jamison

Fascinating. I have to wonder if it’s natural cycles on the earth such as the PDO, NAO, and AO, or is it the lack of solar activity. Or both? Or even more things we don’t yet understand.
Regardless, it’s a great learning opportunity!

I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
There is a 6-15 day forecast (i.e. 3 Jan to 12 Jan) which more or less covers most of the the period in Bastardi’s forecast. See
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
which says
UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 12 Jan 2010:

There will be a good deal of fine, dry and bright but cold weather across the UK from Sunday and through next week. Sleet and snow showers will affect many northern and eastern parts at times, perhaps becoming more persistent and spreading into some other regions from the middle of next week. Nights will be frosty, with frost locally severe in some areas, and overnight freezing fog will be slow to clear from some inland parts. There is uncertainty from next weekend onwards through the rest of the period with the strongest signal for the weather to remain generally cold with occasional wintry showers, though some western and southwestern parts may become less cold for a time.

Updated: 1154 on Tue 29 Dec 2009

I could have told you about the cold snap: I managed to find the only bit of ice that hadn’t melted in the village and ended up with a cut face; earlier in the week, my daughter slipped and broke a bone in her thumb. I blame Al Gore…

Has anyone read Phillip Eden’s book ‘Weather Extremes and the British Climate’ ?
I generally have a high opinion of his very level-headed approach to the weather/climate and don’t recall him being particularly pro/anti AGW.
Here’s the link
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Change-Weather-Philip-Eden/dp/0826479731/ref=cm_cr_pr_orig_subj
I heard that he’s just been made Dep at the Royal Met Society

crosspatch

Where is that Boston guy? I told him it would get cold there as soon as that low pressure area passed through. He seems to have disappeared.

R.S.Brown

Here in NE Ohio we’ll know it was an exceptionally cold winter if we start seeing Snowy Owls in late February or March.
I know we had a citing or two 25 years ago, and there was a bunch of them in our area around 1909/11. (I have a small treatise on this phenomenon somewhere on my Ohio related-history shelves.)
Back then, it seems a drastic winter in Canada depleted the supply of mice and other smallish critters… and the owls headed south to us.

rbateman

crosspatch (01:38:52) :
I’m not going to bet on this following the standard warm in the west, cold in the east pattern. We’ve already hit a major cold snap out west, and for every year with a single winter snap, there’s been an equal # of years with multiple cold snaps.

Will Hudson

Martin Brumby (00:51:07) :
“Well, it took me a little while to find it (now, they couldn’t be trying to hide it, SURELY?) but here is the MET Office’s forecast dated 27 November 2009. (That’s right, just over a month ago!)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/?zoneid=79042
The MET Office must have noticed your post (who says they don’t read WUWT) and they have now, today Dec 30, updated the prediction. It now says “For the rest of winter, over northern Europe including the UK, the chance of colder conditions is now 45%; there is a 30% chance of average and a 25% chance of milder conditions.”
Quite a change, especially right in the middle of the cold weather. Someone at the MET office loked out the window.