Richard North from the EU Referendum writes of a curious juxtaposition of forecasts, then and now. I thought it worth sharing here since it highlights the chutzpah with which CRU botched their forecast in March of 2000. At least they didn’t claim that UK snowfall was in a “death spiral”.
From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
Then, from the Telegraph online today we get: “Snow and ice to hit Britain at New Year.”
The mercury is set to drop to 28°F (-3°C) in most of England and Wales on Thursday night, New Year’s Eve, and 17°F (-8°C) in Scotland, with widespread snow showers also predicted. New Year’s Day will also be chilly, with the northern half of Britain’s struggling to get above freezing during the day, while London will do well to reach 39°F (4°C)
The forecast follows a spell of snow, sleet and ice which has gripped Britain for more than a week but relented in most parts over recent days.
It is so good to see in The Independent that the CRU is living up to its justly acquired reputation for accuracy.
I’ll also point out that this “very rare and exciting event” happened in London last year also.
Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years
Above: London 10/29/2008
“In 1063 it is recorded that it was frozen over for fourteen weeks, and again in 1076.”
These very cold periods within the Medieval Warm Period were obviously just weather and not climate.
John Finn (17:38:11) : “Re: the MWP …In 1063 it is recorded that it was frozen over for fourteen weeks, and again in 1076. In 1434 it was frozen over below London Bridge, as far down as Gravesend, and the frost lasted from November 24th to February 10th.
So in the ‘balmy’ days of the MWP, the Thames froze over for 14 weeks. An event which is regularly cited as proof of the LIA – and an event which has not been seen on anything like that sort of scale for almost 50 years.”
Well I am sure that the unusual winter snowfall in Europe and America, though a very rare and exciting event, is equally not a proof that Modern Warm Period doesnt exist.
Some of the signs of the LIA were events like almost every river and lake in Britain freezing over, and the Thames freezing almost every year, not just twice, and the rivers in Europe freezing over, and the advance of the Glaciers in the Alps and Iceland, Scandinavia the Andes etc. All the ebbing and flowing of nature, whose instantaneous features we view during our short lives and totally misjudge its longer timescale features
Here is the big difference between “climate” and natural weather pattern variation. Climate is what is considered when developing new grape varieties. Grape varieties for the upper Northern Hemisphere were not developed to withstand the mathematical average temperature. They were developed to withstand the extremes of the climate in these areas. Natural weather pattern variation is what is considered when deciding whether or not to plant wheat, peas, or pumpkin for a few years. Weather is considered when deciding when to harvest alfalfa.
When you say climate change, I think weather pattern variation. Saying that climate is weather because you can develop an average is like trying to average telephone numbers. It provides a very useless number.
John Finn (10:30:08) : “There are currently over 400 commercial vineyards in the UK.”
BIG deal, John, (and Phil).
I will not begin to recite to you the number of commercial vineyards in Oregon, Washington, and even some in North Carolina and Virginia in the USA…areas which are ALL subject to occasional severe winter weather.
Besides, in comparison to the ancient vineyards, the modern grape varietals are many…and many of them are genetically adapted to the cold.
So it really does not matter if the vineyards are 350, 400, or 4000.
The point is that the UK got a all-time record OCTOBER snow in 2008, more record snows in Jan – Feb of this year…..and more in December of the same….and not to be outdone in the new year 2010…..!
Something is going on.
Climate changes. That’s what it does.
We here in Norfolk (not East Anglia) VA, USA, are experiencing a record “snow drought.”
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has a lot to do with it, but its larger cycles occur on scales that most of us do not live long enough to remember.
And besides, no two oscillations, just like snowflakes, are alike.
WE live in a remarkably complex world….and are only barely scratching the surface as to how everything works.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Pamela Gray (21:18:56) :
Well said, alot better said than my rambling post. 🙂
John Finn: In 1063 it is recorded that it was frozen over for fourteen weeks, and again in 1076. In 1434 it was frozen over below London Bridge, as far down as Gravesend, and the frost lasted from November 24th to February 10th. So in the ‘balmy’ days of the MWP, the Thames froze over for 14 weeks. An event which is regularly cited as proof of the LIA – and an event which has not been seen on anything like that sort of scale for almost 50 years.
Huh? So what’s your point? Are you trying to pull a Michael Mann??
Or are you just pointing out that extremes in natural weather variations, and, for the time, “climate changes” occur.
Perhaps those epic freezes may give some credence to the theory that a tremendous unloading of fresh meltwater from Greenland into the Atlantic, has a localized chilling effect on Europe, shutting off the Gulf Stream??
Your 1434 reference does not apply because the slide into the abyss of the LIA had already begun by then.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
John Finn (17:38:11) :
Re: the MWP
You have obvious never looked at years with very hot summers and noted the big freezes that also occur in thier preceeding/subsequent winters.
A warm climate period will produce warm & dry as well as warm & wet years.
It’s the warm & dry that gets you the summer sizzlers with winter icegrips.
C’mon in John, the water’s fine.
So let me see if I have this right:
If the Met Office forecasts warm, buy warm clothing because it’s actually going to be cool.
If the Met Office forecasts cool, buy REALLY warm clothing, because hell has just frozen over.
gtrip (01:15:34) :
Why do you think that Anthony keeps posting G. P. Bear goes to Washington? Can he not tell by the lack of comments that nobody is interested?
Just trying to be “helpful”, no doubt? What do you know about how to operate a gigantically successful multifaceted blog? Why are you so worried about the content of the Bear Series? What do you fear? Or are you only trying to irritate people?
Do people like me always have to explain everything to you? Why don’t you try it yourself. See if you can find some other good reasons why Anthony should keep posting the chapters of the story, regardless of its lack of your Gold Standard, “popularity” as you have determined it.
oops, wrong thread, but oh well
rbateman (22:54:10) :
John Finn (17:38:11) :
Re: the MWP
You have obvious never looked at years with very hot summers and noted the big freezes that also occur in thier preceeding/subsequent winters.
I’m actually just pointing out that much of the so-called evidence for the MWP and LIA is not as straightforward as it might appear. It’s often said that the fact Thames freezing over occasionally shows that the LIA was a cold period. How come the freezing in 1043 and 1076 doesn’t show that the MWP was also a cold period?
Richard (20:58:07) :
Some of the signs of the LIA were events like almost every river and lake in Britain freezing over, and the Thames freezing almost every year, not just twice,
I’m not aware that the Thames froze over every year during the LIA. The unique feature of the LIA was that Frost Fairs were held from time to time and it is this that causes the confusion. However, up until the mid-19th century the river was wider and slower so even during the coldest winter ever recorded in 1962/63, the Thames never completely froze.
Peter Hearnden,
“this blog really doesn’t welcome views like mine.”
This blog, imo, welcomes everyone’s views. I personally see nothing objectionable in the way you present your arguments – always polite and well thought out. However, please do not confuse vigorous debate with not being welcome.
Snowdon, the highest mountain in Wales and the highest in Britain south of the Scottish Highlands, got its English name because it is frequently covered in snow during the winter but less than 3 years ago scientists at Bangor University in North Wales predicted that “Snowdon could lose all its snow in less than 15 years as climate change continues to take hold.”
Scientists’ fear for Snowdon snow
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/4112137.stm
The prospect of snow vanishing from Snowdon was even discussed by the Welsh Assembly in Cardiff in 2007. The following year work started on replacing the cafe on the summit. (For the benefit of Americans on this list Snowdon is rather like like Mount Washington in New Hampshire with a railway to the summit). However work on the cafe was repeatedly delayed by – you’ve guessed it – heavy snow!
Snow hampers Snowdon cafe build
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/7358325.stm
“Workers on the project have had to dig snow off the railway track just to get to work every day. ”
This winter there has again been lots of snow on Snowdon and the mountain rescue teams have been exceptionally busy. See the link below for reports relating to last weekend.
Snowdonia helicopter rescues save seven in 24 hours
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/north_west/8431700.stm
Some of the people who had to be rescued this winter did not have the proper clothing or equipment for walking in the mountains in winter. Perhaps they were believers in global warming!
Royinsouthwest (02:58:31) :
Thanks for the Snowdon update. I’d been wondering how they’re doing up there. New Hampshire has taken to charging ill-prepared people for their rescues. One hope is that it will discourage people from heading out in the first place.
So, why is http://blog.snowdonia-active.com/ so inactive? The last entry was 4 June!
That link doesn’t work.
============
I also think I’ve read on this blog in the past that some (many?) of these “commercial” UK vineyards were established in expectation of the warmer climate predicted by the Met, etc. I.e., it may not be the case that they’re self-supporting yet.
matt.v (16:45:45)
Good points.
For about two years now I have been pointing out that one has to ascertain the combined nett effect of all the variable ocean surfaces in order to make a judgement as to the likely climate effect.
For nearly 50 years I’ve been looking at climate reconstructions, and reading of paleo-life and the climatic impacts on peoples of the past. I have this nagging thought that has kept popping up recently, in light of CRU-gate. What if…the decline (Mann’s) in correlation between tree rings and temperature circa 1960, is not a failure of the correspondence of ring-width and temperature, rather the distortion of temperature records beginning with UHI makes the two appear to no longer correlate, when they actually do. Thus the satellite record is spliced to the mercury record too high on the y-axis, and other than the el-ninos of the 90s, there was/is no warming. Just a silly thought that I’ve not been able to argue away in my own head.
@Peter Hearnden
I’m sure most people here welcome views, but it is somewhat a different project to set out to change those views. Now that’s about arguments and truth claims. It is controversial. Has there been anything here that has changed your mind?
Steve Keohane (06:54:58)
Join the club. The whole issue is now in free play and most of the politicians, media and general public are not aware of the fact.
Just suppose there has been a background cooling trend disguised by a combination of UHI effect and a sequence of strong El Ninos.
If the El Ninos then fade a pretty rapid cooling would manifest itself.
Oh dear, just look at the current N. Hemisphere winter.
Not saying it’s so but it’s one of the possibilities that needs to be considered.
John Finn
I fear your accounts of the frozen River Thames in various 11th Century years may all have emanated from Gharles Mackay who was not able to produce any proof of these events. I am not saying the Thames never froze over in the 11th Century but they would have been extremely rare events-the MWP was characteristically warm with some cold spells.
Tonyb
Wakfield Tolbert (12:17:35) :
ref the littlegreenfootballs video, have a peek at this:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/the-medieval-warm-period-a-global-phenonmena-unprecedented-warming-or-unprecedented-data-manipulation/
Sorry about the late response, sleep and work intervened
Ric Werme asked “why is http://blog.snowdonia-active.com/ so inactive? The last entry was 4 June!” I am afraid I don’t know the answer to that. However, on the subject of bad weather and accidents in British mountains it was reported today that two people had been killed in avalanches in Scotland and another four were also caught in avalanches but fortunately survived.
Two climbers killed in Ben Nevis avalanches
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/6912261/Two-climbers-killed-in-Ben-Nevis-avalanches.html
Furthermore, the report in the Daily Telegraph went on to say:
“Abnormally calm and extremely cold weather has raised the risk of avalanches on Scotland’s mountains, by creating a surface hoar, a phenomenon rarely seen in Scotland. The snow crystals form a slippery layer when buried under snow and are the cause of many avalanches in the Alps and North America. Mark Diggins, of SAIS, said hoar surface had formed over about 10 days of calm and extremely cold weather. ”
SAIS is the sportscotland Avalanche Information Service. I hope they don’t let Met Office propaganda about mild winters influence their avalanche risk forecasts.
I fear your accounts of the frozen River Thames in various 11th Century years may all have emanated from Gharles Mackay who was not able to produce any proof of these events. I am not saying the Thames never froze over in the 11th Century but they would have been extremely rare events-the MWP was characteristically warm with some cold spells.
I do believe I read somewhere the Thames was channeled and banked differently in those days. Today it is like a giant rut from what I hear. Deep. The hardest water to freeze if you have but very slight flow.
AndrewWH
Thanks for the handy link reference!
I’m SUPPOSED to be at work right now, but will get around to looking it over when I can.
–W
Pamela Gray (21:18:56) :
You seem to center your understanding of climate vs. weather on viticulture and agricultural concerns.
My basis of understanding comes more from math and statistics. The weather seems (to me) to follow a scatter plot along a more or less sinusoid pattern (a sine wave), varying by several dimensions, such as temperature, precip., wind speed, wind directions, through rather normal variations and cycles. Yes, it is true that there are out-lyers; temps, rainfall events, etc, that don’t seem to be in line with the normal. That is in fact normal for any ‘normal’ distribution you might have.
Now; when you define a climate, you are really defining several statistical dimension regarding what is normal in that climate, with the understanding that there will be weather events lying outside what is normal. The propensity for the data to follow closely along the normal sine wave or scatter widely from it is what’s known as the standard deviation (STD). Obviously, some climates have a larger STD than others.
So when you talk about climate you are really talking about; averages of weather parameters including seasonal changes (the sine wave), along with the standard deviations and probability distributions. To imply that the climate is defined by the ‘extremes of the climate’ is simply not a very solid argument. Yes, it can reach 80F degrees in Nebraska in December, that is by no means a defining characteristic of winter in Omaha.
A climate is and must be defined by several statistical parameters, including the daily mean, the standard deviation, and even the probability distribution and confidence coefficient, and along the several dimensions as well; rainfall, temp, humidity, etc. as well.
In my way of thinking the confidence coefficient can be thought of as the natural variation you mentioned. You stated that climate change is weather variation. I strongly disagree.
Climate change would be when the probability distribution begins to change. The difference being this; if it’s truly natural variation, and you have a long enough statistical history, you shouldn’t see the CC change much.)
Of course this is all overly simplistic; There are other variations than just solar and orbital driven seasonal variance. There are sun spot cycles, there are the PDO, the Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations, there are effects from volcanic activity and more principle drivers than can be mentioned, and probably some that remain to be discovered. All of which suggest a really difficult fourier analysis in order to establish the difference between normal with natural variation (including those mentioned above), and a normal or natural variation that is changing over time. To me, that is the heart of climatology. Or at least it should be, and will be again, once the charlatans are run off.
Looking back at the above, one item catches my eye; ‘a long enough history’. That should catch everybody’s eye. THAT is the real travesty of the climategate issues and agenda driven science. We now have to start all over, from the beginning, because the provenance of any data in the stewardship of these individuals is seriously called into question. We have to reconstitute data from wholecloth. Collect it where it can be found; newspapers, journals, etc., reconstruct proxies from new samples, etc. We have to rebuild that which has been lost or tainted. That is the real disaster of climategate, and why everybody involved should be removed from their position and replaced with a real scientist.
Those archived data were not theirs to adjust, throw away, feed to the dog, or anything else, other than to guarantee that it would remain intact and unaltered for the duration of humanity. That is the only way mankind advances through the ages. It’s kind of like looking at the burnt out remains of Archimedes library, and realizing the Romans have set back mankind for at least a couple of hundred years.
At any rate, glad to have some good discussion on the thread. I value the notion that your perspective and understanding on climate comes from an entirely different line of thinking than mine. That is where real progress can be made and our understanding improved.