Cycle 24 spotless days keeps moving up the hill – now "competitive with the Baby Grand minimum"

After an exciting encounter last week with some genuine sunspots that weren’t arguable as specks, pores, or pixels, the sun resumes its quiet state this week.

SOHO_MDI_100309

Todays SOHO MDI image: back to cueball

People send me things. Here’s the latest email from Paul Stanko, who has been following the solar cycle progression in comparison to previous ones.

Hi Anthony,

Out of the numbered solar cycles, #24 is now in 7th place. Only 5, 6, and 7 of the Dalton Minimum and cycles 12, 14, and 15 of the Baby Grand Minimum had more spotless days.  Since we’ve now beaten cycle #13, we are clearly now competitive with the Baby Grand minimum.

Here’s a table of how the NOAA panel’s new SC#24 prediction is doing:

November 2008:  predicted = 1.80, actual = 1.67 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 83.7)

December 2008:  predicted = 1.80, actual = 1.69 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 84.7)

January 2009:  predicted = 2.10, actual = 1.71 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 73.2)

February 2009: predicted = 2.70, actual = 1.67 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 55.6)

March 2009: predicted = 3.30, actual = 1.97 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 53.8)

April would require the October data which is still very incomplete.  If this analysis intrigues you, I’d be happy to keep you updated on it.  Please also find a couple of  interesting graphs attached as images.

Paul Stanko

Here’s the graphs, the current cycle 24 and years  of interest are marked with a red arrow:

Stanko_spotless_days

Click for larger image

And how 2008/2009 fit in:

Stanko_most years

Click for a larger image

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hunter

Paul,
If our host is willing, I know that many readers would be very interested in keeping up with this.
Regards,
hunter

Fred from Canuckistan . . .

Buy long underwear.
We are going to need all the help we can to stay warm.

L

How do we factor in the 1912-13 data to reflect the fact that we have, today, far better observations upon which to rely?

I’m sorry Mr. Watts, but there’s a fundamental inaccuracy in this post. That is clearly the 5-ball in the picture, not a cue ball.
How DARE someone who is not a qualified pool player comment on cue balls!!! /Gavin Schmidt

UK Sceptic

Meanwhile the UK merrily destroys its energy security and continues to tilt billions at wind turbines…

And I ask again.
If Sunspot activity is linked to climate, as appears to be so (and even the disputed tree record appears to record the Dalton minimum) – then what is the causal factor??
If it is not TSI, solar wind, magnetic flux or cosmic rays, then what could be the causal factor? Anything we have missed?
.

Jeff L

Looks like over 200 more spotless days needed to move up to the next place in the spotless total days.
Based on progression of the cycle so far (for those of you who chart such things), what are your predictions for how many more spotless days could be expected in this cycle?

Gene Nemetz

After an exciting encounter last week with some genuine sunspots that weren’t arguable as specks, pores, or pixels
Something gravitational from planets in the solar system rustled the surface of the sun. 😉
BTW, whatever happened to solar flares??
I haven’t been in a location where the Northern Lights, aurora borealis, are viewable. Can anyone give an update on how active that has been?
Besides cooling the earth is a quiet sun making for quiet Northern Lights?
———————————–
NASA | The Mystery of the Aurora :

Michael

Just look at the big beautiful sleepy orange ball!

Gene Nemetz

Gerard Harbison (11:11:35) :
That is clearly the 5-ball in the picture
The sun is actually white. 😉
You can see it when you’re on a plane and see the tops of clouds; they would be colored orange instead of white if the sun was orange.
But maybe you already knew that and were just joking. 😉

Stephen Wilde

The most important issue is to try and separate any solar influence on air temperatures from oceanic influences.
That would in turn help us to ascertain how much of the observed climate variation could still be regarded as unexplained by natural forces and thus still available to AGW proponents to support their theory.
I am currently of the view that a variable combination of solar and oceanic variations cover all observed climate changes with the CO2 effect just an assumption programmed into the models to cover up an underestimate of the significance of the solar and oceanic combination.
After 50 years experience and reading I think it likely that any extra energy in the air from more GHGs is just accelerated to space faster by a slightly more energised hydrological cycle with no efect on equilibrium temperature as I have explained elsewhere.
Leif Svalgaard is pretty sure that solar variation is insignificant on any timescale relevant to human activity. I’m fairly sure that on century timescales solar changes provide an upward or downward temperature trend but from historical data I also suspect a solar influence on timescales of a couple of decades.
A period of a relatively quiescent sun is very helpful at present even if it does turn out to cause humanity some discomfort.
In any event the global temperature behaviour ovr the past 10 to 15years is hardly helpful to the AGW heory.

Michael

Scientists have been given godlike powers and hold sway over all our lives.
How many people on the entire planet do those scientists they speak of are enumerated at? Lets just agree that number would be .001% of the entire population. So you are telling me that .001% of the population hold sway over my life without a debate?
I want the names of these people. They have been given too much power to ruin our lives.
I want a complete and thorough dissertation done on this subject.
Thank You.

Gene Nemetz

ralph (11:17:55) :
then what is the causal factor?? Anything we have missed?
You may want to look in to the work of Henrik Svensmark, Willie Soon, and Piers Corbyn (et al). On October 28 Piers Corbyn has said he’s going to make public some of the key ingredients of his method. That’s just 25 days away now.
I am anxious to learn about myself. How about everyone else?

Robinson

And I ask again.
If Sunspot activity is linked to climate, as appears to be so (and even the disputed tree record appears to record the Dalton minimum) – then what is the causal factor??
If it is not TSI, solar wind, magnetic flux or cosmic rays, then what could be the causal factor? Anything we have missed?

It’s ok to say, “we don’t know”. It’s a shame so much research cash is being thrown at CO2 when we know so little about big yellow firey thing in the sky.

nick-ynysmon

One question, are we gearing up for the big one in 2012??
Now, from my forays on the world wide web, the common belief seems to be we are heading for turbulent times ahead during our transit across the plane of the ecliptic of the milky way when we will be experiencing the full force of the black hole at the centre and the gravity field, associated with it. I believe we are entering the constellation of ophiucus are we not?
I am happy to be corrected and informed on all of this by those more versed with this subject. My point is this. the belief is whilst the sun is quiescent now and may be for a year or two, the fear is it may burst into life during the year 2012 or shortly afterward. Are we now in the quite period before the storm?
My interest is in the UFO phenomena, and I have read Dan Shermans testimony how he was in a programme called Project Preserve Destiny. He was trained specifically to communicate on higher mental level than most if us normally do, but his preparation was for a time when the electromagnetic communications we have now, no longer function.
The first things this implies is solar storm of massive proportions. Now, tieing all this together as best I can, I wonder if indeed the sun is entering an area of great perturbation of gravity, cosmic rays, and magnetism, as we enter this part of the galaxy, and wonder if there is some correlation as yet unknown with the quitenss if the sun as it is now.
Is there a mechanism inside the sun that may cause it to explode, flare up, and are these external factors of the earths transit through the galactic plane, about to have dramatic effect upon the sun???.
I wonder if NASA and NOAA and a few others either know or suspect something is about to happen that is not not in the public field of knowledge. Just a suspicion, based on a few disparate witnesses such as Dan Sherman, and others.
Has anyone out there reading this blog, come across any rumours to back up some of these things I refer to? What is said in the scientific establishment, about all this????
I notice how this subject is definitely not on the mainstream media, are they being warned off it I wonder? Just some thoughts,
What are your thoughts on this then??
[Please, folks, no UFO speculations on this blog. They got LOTS of other blogs for that! ~ Evan]

Philip T. Downman

Does anyone know how the two latest sunspots 1026 and 1027 scored on magnetic field strength? According to Livingston and Penn they should be 2000 Gs or less to fit in their prognosis of dissappearing.

Michael

This is also a game of psychology. Are you smart enough to play?
We have to change the word Denial to the word Agreement. Most people when surveyed are in Agreement that global warming aka climate change is not a problem, is not occurring, and agree we have global cooling now, confirmed by the satellite data, ocean data, and solar activity which has been nill for over 2 years.

Phillip Bratby

Fred from Canuckistan . . . (10:52:41) :
“Buy long underwear”.
Log store full, oil tank full, food store full. Anything else we should do?

Gene Nemetz

Stephen Wilde (11:28:23) :
After 50 years experience and reading I think it likely that any extra energy in the air from more GHGs is just accelerated to space faster by a slightly more energised hydrological cycle with no efect on equilibrium temperature as I have explained elsewhere.
A very prominent Russian scientist would roughly seem to agree with you :
“Ascribing ‘greenhouse’ effect properties to the Earth’s atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated. Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away.”…..”Instead of professed global warming, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by 2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060,”
–Habibullo Abdussamatov
-Head, space research laboratory, Russian Academies of Sciences’ Pulkovo Observatory
-Head, Astrometry project, being conducted on the Russian 1/2 of the International Space Station
link :
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070115/59078992.html

>nick-ynysmon (11:36:07) : One question, are we gearing up for the big one in 2012??
The one term wonder loses his job? Just asking. 🙂

Pingo

It’s worse than we thought isn’t it?
There’s too any hockey sticks in your graphs there AW, you’re going to be getting some people worried on their sickbed.

anna v

Philip T. Downman (11:43:17) :
Does anyone know how the two latest sunspots 1026 and 1027 scored on magnetic field strength? According to Livingston and Penn they should be 2000 Gs or less to fit in their prognosis of dissappearing.
Right on the curve. Leif gave a link to a plot:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png

The first of Paul’s plots shows cycle 24 to have had 738 spotless days. This is quite remarkable considering that cycle 24 is less than a year old….

Philip T. Downman (11:43:17) :
Does anyone know how the two latest sunspots 1026 and 1027 scored on magnetic field strength? According to Livingston and Penn they should be 2000 Gs or less to fit in their prognosis of dissappearing.
Their average was 1917 G, so right on track

David Alan

I did some checking of previous solar cycles and there just doesn’t seem to be any correlation between rising monthly sunspot numbers and a relative count of spotless days. Other than they become less frequent. Now there does seem to be a threshold for spotless days right around a monthly sunspot number of 45. Based upon predictions that the Sun might be at or near solar minimum, with maximum predicted to be in the range of 75 around spring of 2013, spotless days total should come in right under 1000 for SC23. I think that would be the low end. If the Sun takes longer to ramp up, solar maximum is delayed and the monthly sunspot count only reaches, say 50, the sun could break the record for total spotless days of any solar cycle. Fascinating stuff.

Ron de Haan

UK Sceptic (11:15:52) :
“Meanwhile the UK merrily destroys its energy security and continues to tilt billions at wind turbines…”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6248257/Planned-recession-could-avoid-catastrophic-climate-change.html

Philip T. Downman (11:43:17) :
Does anyone know how the two latest sunspots 1026 and 1027 scored on magnetic field strength? According to Livingston and Penn they should be 2000 Gs or less to fit in their prognosis of dissappearing.

Quoting Leif on solarcycle24.com:

For 1027 [1026 he didn’t get], the mean of 12 spots over 4 days was:
1917 Gauss for field strength
0.850 for contrast
Needless to say [!] the results fall just where they should be:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png

Fred from Canuckistan . . .

” Phillip Bratby (11:51:10) :
Fred from Canuckistan . . . (10:52:41) :
“Buy long underwear”.
Log store full, oil tank full, food store full. Anything else we should do? ”
Learn to like hockey, curling & ice fishing 🙂
The bright side is you can think of the outdoors as a giant walk-in beer fridge 🙂 🙂 🙂

Magnus A

This will make an anti fossil fuel movement — already suggesting evil things, as to put a carbon cap on development countries — extra evil.
I think we need yet more towards non-toxic-, non-polluting-, and fertilizing CO2 positive pro-fossil resistance, but also reveal the environmentalism as a pro-regulation common political discource.
What a task… This site’s absolutely great!

Michael

There has not been a new topic posted over at Real Climate since September 30th. Whatts the matter? Do they all have their panties in a bind over there?
REPLY: They post a new topic once a week, that has been the schedule for months. – A

pwl

I like comparisons of “predicted” aka soothsaying verses “actual”. If more of these comparisons with regards to climate science were shown in the media more people would realize the futility of the predictive aspects of weather forecasting in the longer term also known as climate forecasting. It’s funny that people know that the weather forecasts are going to be wrong one week to ten days out or even wrong for the next day but they accept without question the doom-saying scenarios of extreme long range weather forecasting that the climate will implode on us. I guess it’s easy to accept that man has mucked it up. Yup, some of us have mucked it up and those are the ones projecting climate on long range time scales using simplistic models expecting them to be able to have any accuracy when confronted with the inbuilt randomness of natural weather and climate cycles.
So please continue the comparisons of forecasters, whether or not they are weathermen or climate scientists. I’d love to see a detailed comparison between what the IPCC and Dr. Mann et. al. have predicted verses what Nature has actually tossed us. I think these sorts of comparisons need to be shown to people in as simple language as possible so that the widest range of people can comprehend it.

Gene Nemetz

pwl (12:14:06) :
Here’s Piers Corbyn’s success record : …showing a success rate of 85%…
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0
Activity on the sun is the main ingredient in his forecasts.
Here is his 100 year forecast :

ShrNfr

As has been noted on WUWT, there were increased clouds in 2007 and 2008. Correlation is not causation as we know, but this would be a prediction of the GCR theory of increased clouds from a quiet sun. If we did not observe the increased clouds, the theory would have to be examined to see where it is going wrong. Something that the AGW folks seem to have a problem doing since they have transformed it from science to a religion. You might as well be arguing transubstantiation with them as to get them to accept scientific evidence. All I know is that the historical record of 1911-1913 showed a global cooling that somehow has not been “adjusted out” of the Hadley data. We have had an increased albedo due to clouds and a cooling for the past two years. Some of this is probably due to the down slope of the AMO with regard to cooling. I suggest to the Brits that they may find the predictions made by Hadley to be a bit off again this year. Wind and solar are all very nice and well. But when the sun does not shine and your turbine blades have a load of ice on them, things are not quite so pretty.

Leif Svalgaard (12:01:21) :

The first of Paul’s plots shows cycle 24 to have had 738 spotless days. This is quite remarkable considering that cycle 24 is less than a year old…

Hi Leif,
As usual you are correct. 🙂 The most accurate way to state it since the minima are considered the borders between cycles would be 23-24, 23 to 24, or something like that. Hope I got the quote feature syntax right, and thanks for making sure I stay honest. Have a great day all!

Zeke

“Michael (11:31:44) :
Scientists have been given godlike powers and hold sway over all our lives.
How many people on the entire planet do those scientists they speak of are enumerated at? Lets just agree that number would be .001% of the entire population. So you are telling me that .001% of the population hold sway over my life without a debate?
I want the names of these people. They have been given too much power to ruin our lives.
I want a complete and thorough dissertation done on this subject.
Thank You.”
I recall an interesting discussion on this topic called, “It’s Time for a Change”
on holoscience.com. The author discusses the power of scientists in society over the “unscientific masses”, aka scientism. http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=6bcdajsb
From Wik:
“The term scientism is used to describe the view that natural science has authority over all other interpretations of life, such as philosophical, religious, mythical, spiritual, or humanistic explanations, and over other fields of inquiry, such as the social sciences. The term is used by social scientists like Hayek[1] or Karl Popper to describe what they see as the underlying attitudes and beliefs common to many scientists. “

Gene Nemetz (12:21:41) :
Here’s Piers Corbyn’s success record : …showing a success rate of 85%…

The 85% refers to:
“March to Sept 2008 showing a success rate of 85%”
Activity on the sun is the main ingredient in his forecasts.
Except there was no solar activity during that interval…

Aelric

” Leif Svalgaard (12:01:21) :
The first of Paul’s plots shows cycle 24 to have had 738 spotless days. This is quite remarkable considering that cycle 24 is less than a year old….”
Presumably, the graph might more accurately, though cumbersomely be titled: “Number of Spotless Days During the Minimum Between Cycles n-1 and n”?
Surely one might offer a suggested correction without the need to make a pejorative comment?

Gene Nemetz

ShrNfr (12:26:36) :
increased clouds in 2007 and 2008…if we did not observe the increased clouds, the theory would have to be examined to see where it is going wrong
If light from stars didn’t bend around the sun then General Relativity would have to be examined too. But it did.
And there is an increase in clouds as you point out. So this is more evidence that Henrik Svensmark is correct. Time will tell more.

Paul Stanko (12:28:37) :
The most accurate way to state it since the minima are considered the borders between cycles would be 23-24, 23 to 24
So ’24’ means from maximum of 23 to maximum of 24.
Now, you also have a cycle 1, which then must be from maximum of cycle 0 to maximum of cycle 1 … There are no daily sunspot numbers for cycle 0… and lots of data gaps before cycle 8, so one cannot really count spotless days before cycle 8…

Michael

“REPLY: They post a new topic once a week, that has been the schedule for months. – A”
Thanks for correcting my error. I was confused because they only have 300 and something comments on their last topic.

Adam from Kansas

Whether the Sun is at fault or not, Intellicast is showing below normal temps. here all week next week, not sure about the rest of the NH because it would be cooling overall for the Winter.
The Southern Hemisphere is set to get warm though, with the forecast maps showing some wild temperature swings in the southern half of South America for instance, “Not quite an El Nino” is showing no strengthening as well and Ocean Temps in the SH seemingly on their way down.

Gene Nemetz

Ern Matthews (11:53:59) :
are we gearing up for the big one in 2012??
The one term wonder loses his job? Just asking. 🙂

And Sarah Palin becomes president. Just answering.

Phillip Bratby

Leif: You only offer criticism. Surely the sun is always active? What explanation do you have for Piers Corbyn’s success rate compared to that of the Met Office?

Gene Nemetz

Leif Svalgaard (12:33:19) :
It’s good that you were able to pick up on that from the link. This is why I posted a link, i.e., so that anyone can go and read it for themselves.
From this, and all the additional audit information on Piers Corbyn at the linkyou would agree that he has a fantastic record? Also, do you know of someone better?

Aligner

For anyone who is not familiar with this famous old work …
Sunspots And Their Effect – Harlan True Stetson
Something all Americans should justly treasure IMHO.
Always worth a read when you’ve settled in front of a log fire on a chilly night having done something like, oh I don’t know, tended to a ewe that sadly in the end died giving birth but you’ve managed to successfully get the surviving lamb paired with the single of another ewe with a good udder. It seems to cheer the heart and puts things back into perspective again somehow. Haven’t the faintest idea why!
Can’t say anything about it’s claimed predictive qualitied, I;m not really interested in that. It’s just a good read. The correlations in the underlying work are said to fairly remarkable though.
I also think there’s a staggering amount that we don’t yet understand about the sun-earth connecion in all sorts of areas. I’d venture to suggest there’s a heck of a lot more going climate wise than just heat (possibly drivers for tornadoes and earthquakes, for example). But that’s pure speculation without foundation at all.
Bear in mind the science has moved on considerably in recently years. There’s a large number of specialized satellites buzzing now, determined to further knowledge in this area. If you’re interested, pop over to NASA’s site and take a look.
As you may know, some use this work as a basis for predicting market movements, etc. Others use it for quite different purposes. Here’s one I turned up while searching for a link to an unembellished English translation of Tchijevsky’s original underlying work to post here. This site’s not my cup of tea at all, but feel free to make of it what you will.
Unfortunately, I failed to find what I was looking for 🙁

Gene Nemetz

Leif Svalgaard (12:33:19) :
Activity on the sun is the main ingredient in his forecasts.
Except there was no solar activity during that interval…

I see. The sun was out of town then, I guess. 😉

Gene Nemetz

Aelric (12:38:21) :
Surely one might offer a suggested correction without the need to make a pejorative comment?
I see you don’t know Leif Svalgaard.

Ed

Won’t be long until we are back on the global cooling scare…probably why it’s called climate change now. Either way a money making opportunity, though I think they may have missed the opportunity thanks to mother nature!
SOON THEY WILL HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POWER OF THE OCEANS and the sun (ominous voice)!
My guess is global cooling until at least 2035. Ocean cycles negative through 2030-2035, solar decreasing through that period as well. Followed by a resuming of warming…
Can anyone think of how we could do a poll whereby we could enter our predictions? Continued Warming or Cooling, peaking at 20XXad? Would be very interesting to make a graph of the current consensus of WUWT readers.