Wheel! – – Of! – – Silly!

I thought I’d seen the end of this after we first saw it back on May 26th of this year. I wrote then:

How not to make a climate photo op

You have to wonder- what were these guys thinking? The only media visual they could have chosen that would send a worse message of forecast certainty was a dart board…or maybe something else?

prinn-roulette-4

MIT’s “wheel of climate” – image courtesy Donna Coveney/MIT

But no, they apparently didn’t get enough press the first time around. I mean, come on, it’s a table top roulette wheel in a science press release. Today we were treated to yet another new press release on the press mailing list I get. It is recycled science news right down to the same photo series above which you can see again in the press link below. The guy on the left looks slightly less irritated in the new photo at the link. Next, to get more mileage, I think we’ll see the online game version.

So what I think we need now is  a caption contest for the photo above. Readers, start your word skills. I’ll post the best three captions from comments in a  new post later.

Oh and if you want to read about the press release, here it is below:

From MIT Public Release: 2-Oct-2009

There’s still time to cut the risk of climate catastrophe, MIT study shows

A new analysis of climate risk, published by researchers at MIT and elsewhere, shows that even moderate carbon-reduction policies now can substantially lower the risk of future climate change. It also shows that quick, global emissions reductions would be required in order to provide a good chance of avoiding a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level — a widely discussed target.

How to limit risk of climate catastrophe

prinn-roulette-4

To illustrate the findings of their model, MIT researchers created a pair of ‘roulette wheels.’ This wheel depicts their estimate of the range of probability of potential global temperature change over the next 100 years if no policy change is enacted on curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

Photo – Image courtesy: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Comprehensive analysis of the odds of climate outcomes under different policy scenarios shows significant benefits from early actions.

David L. Chandler, MIT News Office

October 2, 2009

A new analysis of climate risk, published by researchers at MIT and elsewhere, shows that even moderate carbon-reduction policies now can substantially lower the risk of future climate change. It also shows that quick, global emissions reductions would be required in order to provide a good chance of  avoiding a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level — a widely discussed target. But without prompt action, they found, extreme changes could soon become much more difficult, if not impossible, to control.

Ron Prinn, co-director of MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change and a co-author of the new study, says that “our results show we still have around a 50-50 chance of stabilizing the climate” at a level of no more than a few tenths above the 2 degree target. However, that will require global emissions, which are now growing, to start downward almost immediately. That result could be achieved if the aggressive emissions targets in current U.S. climate bills were met, and matched by other wealthy countries, and if China and other large developing countries followed suit with only a decade or two delay. That 2 degree C increase is a level that is considered likely to prevent some of the most catastrophic potential effects of climate change, such as major increases in global sea level and disruption of agriculture and natural ecosystems.

“The nature of the problem is one of minimizing risk,” explains Mort Webster, assistant professor of engineering systems, who was the lead author of the new report. That’s why looking at the probabilities of various outcomes, rather than focusing on the average outcome in a given climate model, “is both more scientifically correct, and a more useful way to think about it.”

Too often, he says, the public discussion over climate change policies gets framed as a debate between the most extreme views on each side, as “the world is ending tomorrow, versus it’s all a myth,” he says. “Neither of those is scientifically correct or socially useful.”

“It’s a tradeoff between risks,” he says. “There’s the risk of extreme climate change but there’s also a risk of higher costs. As scientists, we don’t choose what’s the right level of risk for society, but we show what the risks are either way.”

The new study, published online by the Joint Program in September, builds on one released earlier this year that looked at the probabilities of various climate outcomes in the event that no emissions-control policies at all were implemented — and found high odds of extreme temperature increases that could devastate human societies. This one examined the difference that would be made to those odds, under four different versions of possible emissions-reduction policies.

Both studies used the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved hundreds of runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well — such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Quantifying the odds

By taking a probabilistic approach, using many different runs of the climate model, this approach gives a more realistic assessment of the range of possible outcomes, Webster says. “One of the common mistakes in the [scientific] literature,” he says, “is to take several different climate models, each of which gives a ‘best guess’ of temperature outcomes, and take that as the uncertainty range. But that’s not right. The range of uncertainty is actually much wider.”

Because this study produced a direct estimate of probabilities by running 400 different probability-weighted simulations for each policy case, looking at the actual range of uncertainty for each of the many factors that go into the model, and how they interact. By doing so, it produced more realistic estimates of the likelihood of various outcomes than other procedures — and the resulting odds are often significantly worse. For example, an earlier study by Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research estimated that the Level 1 emissions control policy — the least-restrictive of the standards studied -would reduce by 50 percent the odds of a temperature increase of more than 2 degrees C, but the more detailed analysis in the new study finds only a 20 percent chance of avoiding such an increase.

One interesting finding the team made is that even relatively modest emissions-control policies can have a big impact on the odds of the most damaging climate outcomes. For any given climate model scenario, there is always a probability distribution of possible outcomes, and it turns out that in all the scenarios, the policy options have a much greater impact in reducing the most extreme outcomes than they do on the most likely outcomes.

For example, under the strongest of the four policy options, the average projected outcome was a 1.7 degrees C reduction of the expected temperature increase in 2100, but for the most extreme projected increase (with 5 percent probability of occurring) there was a 3.2 degree C reduction. And that’s especially significant, the authors say, because the most damaging effects of climate change increase drastically with higher temperature, in a very non-linear way.

“These results illustrate that even relatively loose constraints on emissions reduce greatly the chance of an extreme temperature increase, which is associated with the greatest damage,” the report concludes.

Webster emphasizes that “this is a problem of risk management,” and says that while the technical aspects of the models are complex, the results provide information that’s not much different from decisions that people face every day. People understand that by using their seat belts and having a car with airbags they are reducing the risks of driving, but that doesn’t mean they can’t still be injured or killed. “No, but the risk goes down. That’s the return on your decision. It’s not something that’s so unfamiliar to people. We may make sure to buy a car with airbags, but we don’t refuse to leave the house. That’s the nature of the kind of tradeoffs we have to make as a society.”

===

UPDATE: WUWT commenter Deborah via Jim Watson implies in comments that she has too much time on her hands 😉

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312 thoughts on “Wheel! – – Of! – – Silly!

  1. Must be how NOAA and the Met office do the long range forecasts.
    Snow down to 4000′ in NE Oregon tonight tru the weekend…
    Winter storm watch for the Blue Mountains too…

  2. The MIT Conifer Ring Analysis Program (CRAP) has narrowed the selection of the Pivotal Inference Tree (PIT) to six. Wanting this choice to be random they have converted print outs from their climate models into the Crap Pit selection device. We should know soon the result from this highly advanced use of Model output. The fate of the world rests on the CRAP PIT Model output.

  3. How about: “How wrong can we be, let us count the ways.”
    MIT really is a white tower, truly cloistered from the real world. Too bad that they are so enamored with their computer models.

  4. Well, according to Prof. Clive Hamilton, a psychologist at the Australian National University : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6253912/Most-people-in-denial-over-climate-change-according-to-psychologists.html
    “…Prof Hamilton said the majority of people use “maladaptive coping strategies” such as ignoring the situation, blaming someone else or simply having a good time. ”
    and recommends:
    “Personally I cannot see any alternative to ramping up the fear factor.”
    So ramping up fear is a good thing and those who deny climate change are not sane….

  5. “One interesting finding the team made is that even relatively modest emissions-control policies can have a big impact on the odds of the most damaging climate outcomes. For any given climate model scenario, there is always a probability distribution of possible outcomes, and it turns out that in all the scenarios, the policy options have a much greater impact in reducing the most extreme outcomes than they do on the most likely outcomes”
    DUH!!!!!
    IF I base the assumptions on a “year over year” linear projection of cumlative risk of impact and then do something that I detrmined in the model that mitigates the rate of progression I change the trajectory lower, quantified by the impact or reduction in linear progression of the risk. Hence lessening the possibility of the extreme outcome, additionally the earlier you act the more impact there is farther out the time series you go.
    Business Mathematics in the 10th Grade calculating compound interest for the basic understanding.
    Gee I just saved myself a fortune on a MIT education.

  6. MIT’s “Spin on Climate”
    This could be the same group that was featured in the movie 21. Instead of busting Las Vegas, they now plan to bust the USA.

  7. The wheel is biased towards >560nm wavelengths. It is prejudiced against the cyan, blue and violet colors. It is wrong to discriminate against wavelengths <560 nm just because these colors have negative temperature rises of -3 to -4C, -4 to -5C and more than -7C associated with them.
    Guessing at future temperatures must not exclude those socially marginalized temperatures that happen to have negative signs in front of them. The cold colors should be given an equal opportunity.
    Mariss

  8. Al Gore’s Wheel of Scorchin’.
    It has at most a 1 in 200th chance of predicting future temperatures. When the input to an equation relies on wild guesswork, this is what science becomes.

  9. With some consternation, it didn’t matter how many times the MIT boffins spun the Global Warming Roulette Wheel, it kept landing on the thin slice of blue. After some deliberation the team expressed confidence in their model but said that it was the real time observational element that was at fault. When pressed for more details they just said ‘balls’. They also explained that the failure of the ball to land on the other areas of the wheel was purely a statistical anomaly and the expected results would resume in a year or two. In fact they had already predicted such a run of blue results and that this was in no way significant of any model malfunction. They were however in the process of upgrading the model to a much more expensive system that would eliminate the inconvenient blue section altogether, therefore saving the public from any confusion that might arise. When asked about other boffins who had expressed doubt in the quality and honesty of the model they assured us that those detractors were in the pay of evil Black Jack companies and their opinions were invalid. They were somewhat cagey about what it would cost members of the public to gamble on the Global Warming Roulette Wheel but assured us that everyone would be a winner in the long term so long as they kept paying… I mean playing.

  10. For the caption contest:
    “The Spin Doctors”
    “Bust a deal and face the wheel!”
    “I can haz funding?”
    “SCIENCE FAIL”
    “The spin on the science goes round and round, round and round, round and round…”
    “Kindergarten Climatology”

  11. Plywood cutout – $4
    Neon Paint in appropriate shades of alarm -$18
    Studious looking digital photo with your nifty creation -$.00001
    Forgetting to put the negative sign on all of the numbers? – Priceless.

  12. The dice are loaded,
    the tables are rigged,
    we have the coolers on standby?
    Now everyone remember why we are here,
    Never give a sucker an even break,
    Every minute a sucker is born!
    You cant fool all of the people all of the time, so lets fool as many as we can while we can!
    ITS SHOWTIME!

  13. I think we should just call it “The Wheel of Insanity”. What’s next? A climate “Jump to Conclusions Mat”????

  14. OT, but our Sun appears to have gone to bed again.
    The Cycle 24 is still ahead?
    A professional, teach me please.

  15. Oh this is from the same Warmist PR group that has been set at MIT because Lindzen, the MIT most renowned climatologist was not an AGW convert… Just as when Jeffrey Simpson, Thomas Homer-Dixon and Chantal Kreviazuk write about the climate in the Globe and Mail… LOL

  16. They don’t need the wheel. The IPCC already has pinpointed the temperature increase by 2100 to be approximately 6.31277394296 degrees. Furthermore they have said it is unstoppable whether we do anything or not.

  17. “To illustrate the findings of their model … ”
    C’mon guys, I’ve had trouble getting Microwave SPICE to converge on a 7 pole elliptical filter after fighting it for a week and then I had good luck using the simpler Touchstone (linear time-invariant) simulator; not remotely news either …
    .
    .
    .

  18. I believe that these guys really believe what they say. That said, what I’ve always wanted to know was, who determined the CO2 warming equation and how was this done?
    Off the top of my head, I imagine that somebody build a bunch of identical greenhouses next to each other and filled them with different levels of CO2 and came up with the equation.

  19. Caption……
    Pick a color, I’ll spin the recycled Tree-ring wheel, and, whoever gets that color is first out.
    It sounds like the parameters of uncertainty are widening to accommodate cooling.
    “One interesting finding the team made is that even relatively modest emissions-control policies can have a big impact on the odds of the most damaging climate outcomes. For any given climate model scenario, there is always a probability distribution of possible outcomes, and it turns out that in all the scenarios, the policy options have a much greater impact in reducing the most extreme outcomes than they do on the most likely outcomes.”
    Sorry guys, I think I understand you, try this…….”loosen the criteria and cast the net wide enough and we may be right”.

  20. Or maybe a little better….
    Plywood cutout -$4
    Neon Paint in appropriate shades of alarm -$18
    Photo/Press release to forever immortalize your team with nifty creation-$.0001
    Foolishly choosing positive values on ALL estimates of ^T ? – Priceless

  21. A new analysis of climate risk, published by researchers at MIT and elsewhere, shows that even moderate carbon-reduction policies now can substantially lower the risk of future climate change.
    Their “new” analysis just happens to answer the objection that carbon taxes et al won’t do anything to stop AGW !! Hurray!
    What we need are modelers of politically influenced scientists. They would have seen this one coming a mile away. Even without a computer model.

  22. Indeed, the climate models have as much scientific validity as the models used to predict whether the stock market will go up or down. The methods used to produce are them are remarkably similar and the fervor of their developers belief in them is also about the same.
    We don’t have a good theoretical understanding of climate and hence can’t produce a good theoretical estimate of the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 (net feedbacks).
    Therefore, we have to rely on empirical measures of CO2 sensitivity. The dirty secret of climate science is that the effect of CO2 is too small to measure empirically.
    And my entry,
    We need one more model run for the next IPCC report. Whose turn is it to spin?

  23. “published by researchers at MIT and elsewhere”
    So, they don’t rate the title scientist, MIT won’t allow them to claim association…
    At this point I think trying to get inside their heads to understand what they were thinking would be a bad idea. My psyche might be permanently scarred if I temporarily understood them.

  24. Caption “Throw the dart and let’s see where the science settles today – and make sure you hit the board this time, my hand still hurts like hell”

  25. I actually think this is pretty smart.
    Assume for the moment that we are dealing with natural variability about which we can do nothing.
    If we do nothing nothing will change and there will be no extreme temperatures.
    If we do a little something…nothing will change and there will be no extreme temperatures and, hey, most of the crazed soccer moms and the honest scientists will be good with that.
    Or we could go the whole reduce CO2 emmissions by 80% and destroy our economy there will be no extreme temperatures thing.
    I say toss the loonies a bone. It is a whole heck of a lot cheaper than the collapse the economy to 1892 thing idea.
    Maybe twisty light bulbs for outdoor applications will be enough to feed the climate change tiger.

  26. “Three days of losing at the blackjack table led the MIT brain trust to tackle an easier payoff – global warming grants from the US Government.”

  27. They really are oblivious to what goes on outside their little bubble. I kind of miss academia in that way, but it does not change the reality they choose to ignore.

  28. Figure 1. The newly built MIT’s greenhouse is divided into seven sectors: (a) blue – plants for brain health, (b) green – coca, (c) yellow – hops, (d) orange – tropical fruits, (e) red – poppy, (f) crimson – marijuana.

  29. What these guys have done is to fail to question their underlying assumption – that increase in CO2 increases the world temperature, and even worse – think that by running a computer model many times will give you a correct answer.
    Remember the injunction of Oliver Cromwell to the Parliament ” I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.”
    Have they even questioned In teaching students, I sometimes use the analogy of starting with a fact and then building a castle of glass which will tumble down and shatter if the foundation is not correct. They are living in such a glass castle.

  30. “Round and Round we go. Where we stop, even we don’t know!!!”
    “Amazingly, we learned today that if you run a program that when you continually multiply one number by another number you get a bigger number, our computers proved it!!!”
    “Hey Rocky, watch me pull Global Warming out of my @$# errr… I mean Hat.”
    “Okay we have figured out Global Warming, Now the Deficit!”
    Just a few thoughts

  31. The guy in the suit says…”I am an MIT Professor/Scientist and I just taught these young men how to forecast climate!! Why don’t you come to MIT and I’ll teach you to be a real Climate Scientist too!!!”

  32. Caption:
    “And now, let’s spin the Mann-o-matic HS generator to duplicate Briffa’s findings”

  33. How about,..
    “Judicious research is not the way the scientific world really works anymore, we’re an empire now, and when we act we create our
    own reality.”
    With due acknowledgment to Mr. Suskind.

  34. Maybe
    “Mind you, when we talk about 2degC warmer than pre industrial levels we do mean 2degC warmer than the little ice age.”

  35. “MIT unveils their secret Climate Change Funding Formula – The Funding Pie”
    Researchers nominate what ‘Change in Mean Global Temperature’ there research will “prove” prior to commencing research and they receive the percentage of total MIT funding indicated by the “funding pie”.

  36. “MIT unveil an actual photo of the ‘YAD061 Tree Core’ proving that Mann’s secret to his amazing prediction was this secret message left inside a tree by Alien’s who inhabit a planet in the YAD061 Star System.”

  37. “Navada Board of Gaming investigates after MIT team found to have altered roulette wheel to skew odds in their favour”

  38. “Change in mean global temperature 1990-2100” is the subject of the wheel. We now have 18% of the date range in the record book. Max value of the wheel is >7C, while Min. value is <3C. I'd guess that we haven't left the blue sliver yet, even if you add the last 120 years. My caption is: "Fund us or Fry"

  39. ok.. last one 🙂
    “MIT Pie Graph that indicates Political Leanings (Colour) vs Temperature Predictions (Temperature Range)”

  40. I like to spread the message on other blogs. Over at Zero Hedge these are some heated and some cool responses to what I posted. Here’s one of there’s and one from me.
    “Sorry dude. When you guys gave Al Gore a nobel prize for An Inconvenient truth. You completely lost my wilingness to listen to your crap.
    I watched Al Gore grapple with basic math concepts while listening to someone try to explain bandwith diffferences between a T-1 and an OC-3. HIs mind has all the scientific capabilities of mold slime.
    [snip, no profanity]
    The earth’s temperature fluctuates. All we are doing is converting more hydrocarbons and carbohydrates back into more hydrocarbons and carbohydrates. Plus a bit more limestone on the ocean floor.”
    ” Just had to respond to this.
    You got to be kidding me. You said, “Anyone who could show that anthropogenic climate change was non-existent would win a Nobel Prize.” And you are right and that person is mild mannered Stephen McIntyre.
    And how many people on the entire planet do those scientists you speak of are enumerated at? Lets just agree that number would be .001% of the entire population. So you are telling me that .001% of the population hold sway over my life without a debate?”
    You could check it out if you like. I’m the Nancey Pelosi green haired person who looks like the joker.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-only-28-times-more-buying-last-week#comment-87478

  41. How about
    [snip]
    I’m sorry but gee whiz this is getting worse than insane.
    I look at that pic and see we’re at the mercy of the
    “revenge of the nitwits”

  42. They might as well spin the disk and throw darts to predict what the temperatures will be in the future. Works just as well as their goofy computer models.

  43. This is yet another example of the state of the sorry state which climate science finds itself in. If they don’t toe the party line they won’t get the Federal funding. Any model which doesn’t give a probability of global temperature going down as well as up shows no intuition about future climate.
    Caption: “Met Office to buy MIT’s new £2.4b cimate modelling super-computer.”

  44. So….. After20years and 50 billion dollars, the scientists have designed a Wheel of Climate. …. Do you spin it anti-clockwise for the Northern hemisphere?
    (this caption would probably go well with a cartoon depiction of a nonplussed group of the public attempting to make sense of it all)…. 😉

  45. “After an in-depth analysis of the statistical methods used by climate scientists the world over, MIT researchers pictured above have developed a low carbon emissions computer which has reproduced and validated these models with a 95% confidence interval.”

  46. By the way, what kind of chance does the wheel give for the mean temperature to drop? Is that included in the <3-4C sliver?

  47. Come on people. These are MIT! scientists. There is no doubt in my mind they know what they’re talking about.
    You are all just a bunch of deniers and mother Earth will die along with all of us if we don’t follow their expert prescriptions.
    MIT people, wake up!

  48. “The new MIT Climate Supercomputer project has been scaled back due to the Global Financial Crisis.”

  49. We finally realised that TAROT CARDS don’t cut the mustard in CLIMATE SCIENCE so from now on we are going to use a ROULETTE WHEEL and spin you a better BOGUS BARGAIN….still contains CARBON but !

  50. I am a biotechnologist who knows as much about climate change as does my 74 year old grandmother (she is a scrubber down at the Brisbane Queenslaand sailors’ home who left school at 14). I have a vested interested in the future climate because I shall soon be wrapping up experiments that will reset my clock to 20 years of age (but no immortality, because actuary tables say that a race that has conquered all disease and aging will still have half of the population dead after 600 years if no offspring).

  51. “To illustrate the findings of their model, MIT researchers created a pair of ‘roulette wheels.’ ”
    After reading the work here about tree rings one hopes they realize the bets are off.

  52. “….A new analysis of climate risk, published by researchers at MIT and elsewhere, shows that even moderate carbon-reduction policies now can substantially lower the risk of future climate change….”
    No problem then.
    Surely there are enough true believers and easily-spooked people around to make compliance with the required “carbon-reduction policies” voluntary.

  53. How about
    “They said there would be barrel girls but all I got were 4 stinkin’ scientists!”

  54. The gentleman holding a wheel has a face I would like to punch.
    Pity there is no Dick Feynman (MIT absolvent) around today. He was quite straight person, maybe he would do it.

  55. Press Release;
    ‘Roll Up, Roll Up!…. Hot Stuff!
    MIT Climate Department’s stall for the Family Open Day will feature their “Wheel of Fortune” game. Department Spokesmen (pictured) say:
    “You can bet on the annual increase in the number of Higher Degrees in hot-air studies coming out of the Department. A positive outcome is guaranteed, and correlates closely with increases in the department’s budget and carbon footprint too. Prizes depend on the size of your stake. But, if the wheel stops at that thin blue sector, which represents a one-in-a-hundred chance of a disastrous climate department collapse, all bets will be off ( … and so will we)”

  56. Caption:
    “How much warming will the next press release predict? 3-4C ? 6C ? or more? – PLACE BETS NOW!”

  57. Caption: MIT pranksters pose beside their climate ‘Wheel of Credulity’. “It’s amazing,” they said. “We put together a press release out of a grade-school science fair project, and now the government is granting us gobs of money. We’re thinking of making a career out of it.”
    For their next project, they will offer a graduate program in paraclimatology with an emphasis on thaumaturgic practices in long-range forecasting.

  58. “The IPCC’s seventh report on climate change gets underway. Here, the remainder of the consensus group demonstrate how settled the science is.”

  59. Caption : “MIT researchers prove they couldn’t run a chook raffle!” or.. “Can I buy a vowel please?” 😀

  60. It’s obviously a song title, but I can’t decide whether it’s ” Wheel of Fortune” or “The Only Way Is Up”

  61. We turned this wheel
    Four hundred times.
    Sometimes this way
    And sometimes that.
    Numbers tumbled out
    All over the mat.
    We picked ’em all up;
    Back on the wheel, splat.
    ===============

  62. I find it interesting that, in discussing “the problem of risk management”,they bring up airbags in automobiles. It’s interesting because airbags provide the near perfect case study of the dangers of allowing government bureaucrats to mandate things which they claim are for our own good. When the safety nazis first required the installation of airbags in cars, they mandated a design they knew to be potentially hazardous because it was overpowered to provide protection for unbelted passengers. The result was that for every 5 or 6 lives saved, under even the most charitable estimates, one child died from an airbag deployment. This continued for a number of years until they finally changed the specification when the negative effect on children became to great to ignore. Of course, as in most such episodes of incompetence and malfeasance, none of the safety nazis was ever called to account for this deadly foul up. I seem to recall Joan Claybrook even got a Medal of Freedom at some point.

  63. We used to have four wheels on our climate wagon but those pesky denialists have falsified the other three…

  64. Come spend your money on the carnival wheel. As Barnam said, “there’s a sucker born every minute”.

  65. or in the same vein:
    “Grumpy, Dopey, Doc and Happy taking some time out at the opening of the new Yamal Casino”

  66. Our latest research has shown that spinning a wheel is just as accurate as computer modeling in forecasting the climate, so we propose replacing all of the computing facilities at the climate centers and universities with these colorful cardboard forecasting devices, which we call the Climate Liability Assessment Predictor That Rotates And Points (CLAPTRAP). The benefits of the CLAPTRAP are many. First, it will decrease the carbon footprint of climate prediction and research facilities by eliminating the power (and carbon) hungry computers. Further reductions in carbon footprint can be achieved by employing a monkey to spin the wheel instead of a human, though studies will need to be done to determine the smallest species of monkey that is capable of operating the CLAPTRAP. The second benefit of the CLAPTRAP is that it is more aesthetically pleasing than a bank of supercomputers. A third benefit of the CLAPTRAP is that this new method of forecasting allows for complete elimination of any possibility of a forecast for cooling, which improves accuracy. A fourth benefit is that the money saved by eliminating computing facilities can be invested in spreading the message of the CLAPTRAP to the people of the world. We are hopeful that enough people will believe the CLAPTRAP so that we can get funding for a new and improved CLAPTRAP, which will be made from recycled hockey sticks instead of cardboard. There are other benefits that are too numerous to list here.

  67. “That’s it, stick your chewing gum behind the zero.”
    “And here is our climate prediction model.”
    “… we invented the wheel too.”
    Thanks Anthony for your excellent blog site. It deserves more awards.

  68. And just like on Wheel of Fortune, we have a wedge shaped placard we can insert here that says: WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT

  69. Is there a length limit for the caption contest? If my suggestion is too long, I can certainly come up with a pared-down version.

  70. Here in Australia we were always led to believe that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was one of your premier tertiary institutions?? 🙂

  71. I spent my early career designing and building computer models. Of course they represent reality. The voices inside my head told me so.
    Suggested photo caption:
    “What goes up, must come down, spinning wheel, gotta go round” – Blood Sweat & Tears
    [Idea courtesy of the above mentioned voices]

  72. Caption:
    “Help keep the climate bandwagon rolling by spinning our special Dalai Lllama approved prayer wheel regularly”
    Caption:
    “The value of One ton Carbon credits next week will be….”

  73. How about :
    “The grant money for the new supercomputer got , er – lost at the races, but, hey this works just as well!”

  74. Or, perhaps better for a caption …
    There was a pregnant pause when Mr Watts asked “Why the hell did you wait 10 years to release the data?”

  75. No, I’ll rephrase that:
    “This is the Wheel of Fortune.
    Ours, not yours, hehe.
    Suckers.”

  76. Here is a caption:
    “MIT reveals its newest low carbon footprint super computer climate modeling tool”

  77. “No you cannot look at the raw data or examine the wheel. It is awaiting peerreviewedpublication in a scientific journal. We reject the allegation that the wheel is loaded. Only pseudo scientists and wannabe bloggers in the pay of big oil and big coal support those unfounded allegations. We will release the data to support our position when we have resources available.”

  78. Having been dogged by Steve McIntyre for years regarding data sets, methodologies, and programming code, The Team finally succumbs to public pressure and a mountain of FOI requests and presents their modeling program, in its entirety.
    JimB

  79. Go to photo shop, insert Bill O’Reilly, caption…
    1. The spin zone begins here.
    2. Hey, where is the no spin zone?
    3. Folks, global warming left the no spin zone.
    4. Hey, what happened to the no-spin zone?

  80. Telboy (01:59:57) :
    It’s obviously a song title, but I can’t decide whether it’s ” Wheel of Fortune” or “The Only Way Is Up”
    YAZZZZZ! 😉

  81. Boffins Billion Dollar Brain
    Tops scientists today unveiled their latest system for Climate Change modelling. Costing around $5 Billion it ’employs cutting edge rotational geometries, the high-speed highly-parallel compute system will enter a kind of superposed state’ an aide said.
    ‘Our preliminary results show that not only are we facing Imminent Global Armageddon’, the aide whispered breathlessly, ‘this occurs in every other quantum reality!’
    ‘Our next version will cost around $100 Billion and may be made of some sort of plastic’, she said.

  82. RESEARCHERS AT MIT ANNOUNCE COMPUTER BREAKTHROUGH IN CLIMATE PREDICTION METHODES
    MIT’s Center for Global Change Science has put on public display their astounding new computer presently used to predict future global temperatures. This latest generation of computer technology will replace the antiquated Cray XM-P super computers previously used for climate predictions. While far too complex for the average person to understand, Ronald Prinn explains, “We are using an advanced ‘Analog’ computer that provides a continuous solution as opposed to the chunky digital computer. Our breakthrough came with the addition of these wooden pegs that allow the results to be captured in discrete bins”
    Anticipation of future Government funding will allow this new computer to be used in such areas as Dendrochronology, where temperature reconstructions over thousands of years can be made using 12 or fewer samples.

  83. ‘This wheel’s on fire,
    Rollin’ down the road,
    Let’s notify my next of kin,
    This wheel shall explode’ Bob Dylan
    Rather prescient for such an old song!

  84. Caption,…
    MIT researchers, after duly taking a fastidious “Occam’s razor” approach to theoretical climate change models, now finally give the faithful the information they need to credibly debate the AGM skeptics.
    The wheel to rule all other wheels.
    – with due acknowledgement – J.R.R. Tolkien – Lord of the Rings.

  85. Should they call it, “Wheel of further research funding”? Changing the temperatures to $ (in millions) would be a good idea too.

  86. Pricey Lab with Petaflop computers – $1.5 billion
    Huge staff with Media donations – $55 million
    Multiple regression data scrubbing runs – $5 million each
    Sanitized Warming Output- Worthless

  87. OT I guess but inline with media scaremongering. Here in Aus, I’ve seen an increase in reports of “bad weather events”. Mudslides in Sicily, of course the tsunamis in the Samoan region, plus the earth quakes. Earth quakes in Indonesia. There is an, errrrmmm….IMO, “enhanced coverage” of these events in the media of late, in the build up to Craphehagen. Ok, sad yes, but, I repeat, live in a quake prone zone, you will expereince quakes. Live in any kind on “bad event” zone, a “bad event” will happen, eventually. In Sicily, the mud slides were caused by deforestation and unregulated building, but who will blame the cause of the rain on AGW?

  88. Caption:
    Leading climatologists substantiate hockey stick graph with new climate modelling tools – “Its much worse than we thought”

  89. A suggested caption: “Spin it, there’s a sucker born every minute.” How in the world did MIT ever fall this far?

  90. Jay Currie (22:28:27) :
    Maybe twisty light bulbs for outdoor applications will be enough to feed the climate change tiger.

    Why do that, I picked up a LED flood light from CostCo the other day that does a decent job of lighting up the back yard and only sucks 5ma. Only 1/9 of the equivalent incandecent. Typical twisty bulbs are only 1/4.

  91. The Church of Gorebal Warming will introduce a new game of chance at their Carnival of Taxes and Suffering this year …

  92. “Regulators called in to investigate after punters claimed results were rigged”
    “Pin the tail on the donkey kept resulting in erroneous cooling, so the model was tweaked slightly”
    “Researchers to save billions in unnecessary government grants with a new climate modelling algorithm that matches the much more expensive models and in a fraction of the time”

  93. MIT’s “wheel of climate”. Each slice in the wheel represents the amount of government funding required to produce the computer-modeled temperature change. – image courtesy Donna Coveney/MIT

  94. That guy on the far left is killing me with that manly pose. But on to the caption…
    This colorful Climate Mood-o-Meter adds character to any office, and is an essential for today’s modern metroscience male.
    Yes, I just made up the word “metroscience.”

  95. Caption:
    “Step right up and take a spin! Win the little lady a kwepie doll! Only $1 trillion a spin!”

  96. MIT scientists unveil “Congressional/Administrative Hot Air Climate Model Prediction Wheel.”
    Though I think Cobra’s (0545) and Ed’s (0003) speak to the truth of the matter: careerism.

  97. The Science Club’s “Climate Change Drinking Game” never lived up to its projected chick-magnet potential.

  98. “After the wheel landed on >7 degrees tonight’s winner Tim has won a dinner for two with Al Gore.. Tim you’ll be flown in a private jet half way around the world for an intimate lecture with the famous “Gore’ical” on the evils of Air Travel”

  99. The Wheel of AGW Hoax
    Wheel of AGW hoax, spin spin spin
    Give us the lie to tell the folks.
    Eventually all those hours spent in front of the TV would pay off. Who said it rots the …..um…..gosh….what is that thingy in one’s whatchamacallit…. 😉

  100. As an MIT alum, I am sad to see MIT descend from being a center of higher learning to being a whorehouse for grants.

  101. “The MIT team accept an Ig Nobel Award for proving that a spinning wheel is just as inaccurate at future climate predictions as climate Alarmist Tim Flannery”

  102. The Wheel of Unfortunatate Fortune.
    To have a disaster scenario you first need a disaster unfolding. For that you need measurement, every emergency response unit on the planet needs a disaster before they move. They need a report, not a fossil from one tree.

  103. “Forced to reveal the data on their powerful climate model, scientists prepare to announce the most accurate prediction yet.”

  104. “Boys! Just wait till I’ve taken your photo and you can all play with the toy. But no more fighting, and if you break it again I’ll hide it.”

  105. “Around and around she goes —
    we hope we’re retired before anyone knows
    how wrong we were.”
    or
    Climate heretics will be broken on the wheel

  106. While this may seem a silly way to predict future climate, it is actually statistically quite accurate.
    You see, after 10,000 spins, you can reduce the margin of error to almost zero, given the robust sample size. it’s straight forward statistics, moron.

  107. Pardon me, in the form of a caption.
    ” After 10,000 spins, the margin of error is almost zero.”

  108. MIT’s “4-Man Climate Change Band” will dance around their musical climate wheel tonight at the Staples Center as the opening act for rock legends “Spinal Tap.”

  109. Luboš Motl (22:54:21) :
    Figure 1. The newly built MIT’s greenhouse is divided into seven sectors: (a) blue – plants for brain health, (b) green – coca, (c) yellow – hops, (d) orange – tropical fruits, (e) red – poppy, (f) crimson – marijuana.
    Sounds like quite a bit of the best parts of my young adulthood, to be honest (I’m sure there were some tropical fruits, anyways). Now, all we need is a healthy dose of CO2 to make it aaaalllll grow more!

  110. Lyrics from “Wheels of Confusion” by Black Sabbath, Vol. 4 album:
    [i]Long ago I wandered through my mind
    in the land of fairy tales and stories
    Lost in happiness I knew no fears
    Innocence and love was all I knew
    was it illusion?
    Soon the days went passing into years
    Happiness just didn’t come so easy
    Life was more than fairy tales and daydreams
    Innocence was just another word
    was it illusion?
    Lost in the wheels of confusion
    Running through valleys of tears
    Eyes full of angered illusion
    Hiding in everyday fears
    So I found that life is just a game
    But you know there’s never been a winner
    Try your hardest, just to be a loser
    The world will still be turning when you’re gone
    Yeah when you’re gone!
    [/i]

  111. The MIT Climate Model Hedge Fund:
    Thank you Anthony for saving their first picture from May 26, 2009. You are very correct in saying the “the same photo series”.
    I copied your May 26th picture and their October 2nd picture. I then scaled the May 26th picture (reduce by 75.88%) to match the scale of the October 2nd picture. I then overlayed the two pictures. The table, the base of the roulette wheel, and the shadow of the roulette wheel on the table match up perfectly. Not to mention the fact the the four people in the 2 pictures are dressed identically, with nearly the same expressions and posture.
    So obviously MIT took at least two pictures (maybe more) on the same day (~ May 26th, 2009) with the wheel in different spots, to “Hedge their climate model bets”.

  112. CAPTION ONE: “Detectives from the FBI’s Criminal Investigation Unit display gaming contraband confiscated during a recent raid on the home of Al Gore.”
    ALTERNATE: “In a photo dated May 23, 2037, Curators from the Smithsonian’s Museum of [snip] display their most recent artifact: A remarkeably well-preserved ‘Hansen Wheel’ discovered in a glacier outside of Atlanta.”

  113. Next two:
    “MIT researchers showcase low carbon computer of the future”
    and
    “Of course our predictions are robust. It’s made out of Titanium.”

  114. “In other news this week, scientists reached the startling conclusion that using genuine Monte Carlo equipment improves the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations by 42% over computer simulations. These scientists will by applying this breakthrough technology to climate studies.”

  115. “Welcome to the Church of AGW Summer Festival. Be sure to also take some chances on The Barrel of Cheer” 😉
    Andrew

  116. “The carbon footprint of our multibillion dollar climate supercomputer was too large, so …”

  117. There has to be something in this.
    Perhaps a change in lyrics adding climate and funding jargon.
    Spinning Wheel
    Blood Seat and Tears
    What goes up must come down
    spinning wheel got to go round
    Talking about your troubles it’s a crying sin
    Ride a painted pony
    Let the spinning wheel spin
    You got no money, and you, you got no home
    Spinning wheel all alone
    Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
    Ride a painted pony
    let the spinning wheel turn
    Did you find a directing sign
    on the straight and narrow highway?
    Would you mind a reflecting sign
    Just let it shine within your mind
    And show you the colours that are real
    Someone is waiting just for you
    spinning wheel is spinning true
    Drop all your troubles, by the river side
    Catch a painted pony
    On the spinning wheel ride
    Someone is waiting just for you
    spinning wheel is spinning true
    Drop all your troubles, by the river side
    Ride a painted pony
    Let the spinning wheel fly

  118. What they need is a hot female scientist to spin the wheel. I’d volunteer but hot I’m not.
    Caption “Look at me! I’m Vana White!”

  119. Caption: “MIT’s environmental spin doctors present their new climate predication algorithm, which they have been revising since the early 1990’s. ‘This is much more robust than the “dart-board” method,’ said one member of the team. ‘We’re just not very good a throwing darts.'”

  120. MIT unveil their new, carbon friendly unicycle – no pedals.
    Your very own Global Climate Modeller FREE with every packet of Cornflakes.
    Scientists blame dodgy thermostat for their half-baked AGW theories.
    Global warming forces radical changes to electromagnetic spectrum. Visible light shifts to 500 – 1200 nm, scientists claim.

  121. Caption: “MIT climate geeks run their Friday afternoon ‘Odds we’ll get lucky tonight’ simulator”. As indicated by the Predict-O-Wheel, there was unusual optimism this week for “change” as Boston C02 detectors identified the source of increased MIT campus C02 to a bevy of Smith College students visiting Boston to “Par-tay like it’s the medieval warming period! PSYCH!”

  122. Man in suit says. “It cost $100,000 plus to educate these three students and this is what they have to show for it!”

  123. “Every week we put the wheel thro’ a cycle of twenty spins and archive the results behind our Firewall. It’s uncanny just how closely our results track those of the Hadley Centre”
    “We’ve already amassed data for 23 such cycles and we think it fair to say that the Science is indeed settled”
    “Cycle 24 will be no different”

  124. interesting RC seems to have opened up to skeptical criticism (see discussion to current blog). I wonder is this their last gasp or serious attempt to engage?

  125. If they got Vanna White to spin the wheel..THEN they’d be going somewhere.
    Wait, wait…Pat Sajak is a CONSERVATIVE, has read extensively on the Global Warming issue, and written several articles (published in popular magazines) “shredding” the issue.
    So, if they roped in Vanna, it might break up a great team. Don’t think it’s happening.
    Hugoson

  126. Captions..
    Nasa’a climate spin team
    Round n round n round she goes, no matter where it stops, we get hosed
    Nasa introduces their new ultra-energy efficient climate modeling supercomputer
    Look what we made at Cub Scouts!
    Hit the red and get a free polar bear steak!
    Instructions: 1)Spin 5 times 2)divide the total by 2 to average it 3) add 3 4) issue press release 5)collect grant
    HIt the >7º spot 3 times and win a Prius!
    After the wheel fell off of the AGW wagon, a group of climate scientists tested space age playing-card-in-the-spokes technology prior to the wheel’s replacement.
    Which one is supposed to be Vanna?
    Are those temperatures, or how many extra days per month we are going to have to work to fund this foolishness?
    And you though the Military paid a lot for their wheels!
    You spin, we win
    We are going to get sooo many babes with this!
    This works just like The Price Is Right.. the top two spins go to the showcase round
    Jimmy, you gotta stop buying that late night infomercial crap on the NASA credit card!

  127. Perhaps a slight improvement,
    “After 10,000 runs, the margin of error will be close to zero, more funding needed.”

  128. Four MIT researchers proudly reveal the computer they have used to run a climate change model that they claim can predict the temperature of the earth any time into the future within one degree of accuracy. The leader of this august group explained that, unlike the other computers at MIT, this one was custom built for them as a special project of a local high school wood-shop class.

  129. Caption:
    Certainly Mr. Gore, I would be happy to show you a model run of our newest climate simulation!
    Every time we run the model we get similar results, ranging from 3-4 deg C warming to over 7 deg C warming. The problem require immediate and bold action now!
    Larry

  130. “We honestly are out of ideas, so we are going to use this wheel here with random temperature patter- you know what? just give it a spin, whatever it lands on, that is how hot the earth will be in the future. And here…we…go *clickety-clack* *clickety-clack* *clickety-clack*

  131. MIT Investigative Support Scientific Team to Understand Predictive Investigative Dendroclimatology [MIT IS STUPID]

  132. I can’t help but to be reminded of this wheel from one of my favorite shows
    [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xv6IWX1_XHQ&hl=en&fs=1&]

  133. There are no darts in that board, they have missed entirely. Perhaps if it were as big as a barn, or the sun.

  134. Caption
    “OK Schmidty, you got to get the next run of GISS Model E will produce……………..”

  135. Prof. Ronald Prinn demonstrates the robust method used to verify IPCC long term temperature projections.
    Please note, the “Climate Prognosticator™” is made from Yamal larch (YAD06) for enhanced accuracy.

  136. “We thought about using Jeopardy but then McIntyre took “Dendrochonological Reconstructions” for $1000″

  137. I am currently working in Tehran, renowned for its catastrophic traffic and air pollution. The Photo-Chemical smog that blankets this city day in and day out is typical of almost every “developing nation” I have visited. This is where my blood begins to boil at the ninnyhammers of Greenstrife and Fiends of the Earth among others – and MIT and Anglia Uni Climatology Department fit those categories – whinge and whine demanding restrictions on cars, higher taxes and “carbon rationing” in developed nations who have cleaned up their act already – the UK produces around 2% of the CO2 emitted in the EU, or so I am told by their own figures – and yet we are told that WE are the cause of Global Warming!
    So, my caption – “The Climatogy Prediction Centre unveils it’s state of the art random climate change predictor. The CPC leader explained, ‘You simply spin the needle and Bingo, we have our forecast.'”

  138. Here are my contributions to the contest. The captions are not very creative, but I believe “alarmingly” accurate:
    [snip – I appreciate the entries, but the words you chose are just a bit over the top]
    or any variation thereof.
    I love the Marx Bro’s photo shop! A little uplift from a very low point in Science/Society.
    Fantastic service Anthony! And, a salute to growing legions of OUTSPOKEN scientific methodologists – follow-through in the effort for climate truth must extend to making all data publicly available, or the research/paper cannot be published, or credibly recognized.

  139. …..Climate Scientists stun the world of statistics…. they have made Linear projections, circular.

  140. GISS wheels out its latest liberal gullibility meter.
    Prototype move spinner for Thermageddon II: Revenge of the Warmists unveiled at ClimateGamesCon.

  141. We have to change the word Denial to the word Agreement. Most people when surveyed are in Agreement that global warming aka climate change is not a problem, is not occurring, and agree we have global cooling now, confirmed by the satellite data, ocean data, solar activity.

  142. The sad part is that they can write a paper out of it, send it to a journal and their reviewer buddies would approve it. No need to archive the data, you work at MIT, your paper gets approved for publication.

  143. Caption: Spin doctors rue letting stab-in-the-dark tinkertoy climate model demonstrate their social usefulness, or lack thereof. “Come on people, bow to our doomsday Thermageddon panic attack, ’cause baby needs a new pair of shoes. At the very least, you could buy us a vowel.”

  144. If I were allowed to vote for the best caption I would choose this one

    Brett_McS (04:05:41) :
    “MIT’s new climate prediction computer makes use of the Monte Carlo method”.

    Man, this is sooo “the far side”

  145. How about this caption:
    “MIT scholars demonstrate the conceptual basis of their climate model, developed with $1 billion taxpayer subsidy.”
    Jbird

  146. Your tax dollars at work:
    Gov’t funds science, gov’t predicts bad weather, gov’t must tax you to save you from bad weather.
    What, you wanted a flow chart?

  147. I do it again :p
    While it still goes downhill with science, our [snip] departement is still growing and we predict record levels by next month.
    Why is there no mystery prize in this wheel of fortune you ask? Come on, we overhere at MIT all hit the jackpot with climatemodelling, so there is no need for a mystery prize and you are paying anyway.

  148. Round and round she goes.
    Where she stops only we knows.
    One things for sure about where it will land.
    It will be bad, badder or baddest.

  149. Back to topic. The guy on the left is saying:
    “You’ve given me a roulette wheel with 37 zeros. BUT YOU LEFT OUT THE DOUBLE-ZERO”.

  150. “Any ideas how we explain that after spending a billion dollars in grant money, our climate model predictions aren’t any better than our original prototype.”

  151. I vote for Jim Watson’s caption:
    Jim Watson (08:16:20) :
    ALTERNATE: “In a photo dated May 23, 2037, Curators from the Smithsonian’s Museum of [snip] display their most recent artifact: A remarkeably well-preserved ‘Hansen Wheel’ discovered in a glacier outside of Atlanta.”
    If no-one minds I did an artwork using it. It’s on my art blog if Anthony says it’s ok to link.
    http://tiggerstestblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/wheel-of-silly.html

  152. Re A Lovell
    Another Dylan:
    And don’t speak too soon
    For the wheel’s still in spin
    And there’s no tellin’ who
    That it’s namin’.
    For the loser now
    Will be later to win
    For the times they are a-changin’.
    Maybe it’s naming He Who Shall Not Be Named.

  153. “…our results show we still have around a 50-50 chance of stabilizing the climate” at a level of no more than a few tenths above the 2 degree target. However, that will require global emissions, which are now growing, to start downward almost immediately. That result could be achieved if the aggressive emissions targets in current U.S. climate bills were met, and matched by other wealthy countries, and if China and other large developing countries followed suit with only a decade or two delay.”
    At the very least you’d expect people who are cynical to be intelligent. Cynics have to entertain two or more thoughts in their heads at the same time.
    I like the part about China and other large developing countries having another 10 or 20 years. Once they get nicely established they’re going tell the rest of the world to stuff their CO2 emission quotas–again.

  154. E.M.Smith (01:44:39) :
    “You see, we turn the wheel to the desired temperature and the computer prints it out, so it must be right!”
    Yes, because computers will attain conscientiousness one day! 😉

  155. It is interesting that these chaps from MIT only see a 1 in 200 chance of temperatures not rising above 2 degrees. It is a shame that the forecast is for so long in the future as (where gambling laws allow) it would seem pretty good wager. It may be possible to still create a betting market in this with something known as spread betting – a sort of futures market in the gambling industry. For political elections it develops a true consensus of people “putting their money where their mouth is.” If the general consensus concurs with these MIT chappies, then for minority skeptics and outright deniers could be onto a real winner.

  156. Deborah (13:33:44),
    Kudos for a great photoshop! And to the others who posted their clever versions, too.

  157. Some highlights from Met Office NEWS RELAESE called Global warming set to continue . dated 14 September 2009
    ..very small global temperature rises over the last 10 years.
    .. in computer modelled climate change simulations, they found that despite continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, a single-decade hiatus in warming occurs relatively often.
    “We found about one in every eight decades has near-zero or negative global temperature trends in simulations which would otherwise be warm at expected present-day rates
    ‘internal climate variability’ — the capacity for slow natural variations in the oceans to temporarily modify climate. Computer models used to make climate predictions reproduce this intrinsic character of our climate because they successfully represent many of the necessary fundamental climate processes.
    ….the Met Office’s decadal forecast predicts renewed warming after 2010 with about half of the years to 2015 likely to be warmer globally than the current warmest year on record.
    Commenting on the new study, Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office said: “Decades like 1999–2008 occur quite frequently in our climate change simulations, but the underlying trend of increasing temperature remains

  158. From left to right:
    Serious carpal tunnel injury (CPI) – holding right wrist and looks in pain
    Demonstration of how injury was caused
    The doctor who determined that CPI can be caused through repetitious use of climate model runs
    The head of the department (looking pleased) who has had a multi-$M grant approved to improve their methodology and reduce CPI

  159. ” Smokey (16:05:47) :
    Kudos for a great photoshop! And to the others who posted their clever versions, too.”
    Thanks. I couldn’t have done it without Jim Watson’s (08:16:20) caption entry.

  160. “Briffa and Mann instruct leading MIT climatologists on the use of their latest dendrochronology tool.”

  161. “TREEMOMETER NEWS – the Journal of Dendrochronology, October 2009: MIT scientist bypass dendrochronology statistics with their tree-ring field gauge dubbed the ‘tree-ring-circus’.”

  162. Come to the “Tree ring circus” and buy your Carbon tickets here.
    Mann-o-matic
    Wheel of Mis fortune.

  163. “Our climate scientists are ready and willing to provide your next prediction!”
    But my favorite above is,

    Pragmatic (22:08:00) :
    Caption: “Shut up and take the picture Lindzen!!

    /Mr Lynn

  164. I’ve been reading this blog and the posts that follow for awhile now so I want to get this straight. I can’t rely/trust on NASA, MIT, National Science Foundation or any other academic body for any scientific information?
    I don’t know who to believe? These are the scientist’s that have given me GPS technology, the Internet, digital TV, cell phones, nuclear energy, and numerous other innovations but now they are all scheming to take my money through taxation of CO2. Not only are the scientists in the US in on the scheme but it’s a global conspiracy.

  165. This is getting climathetic.
    You people are in danger of becoming climatrophic or even climatose.
    Go see a climatrician and get rewired.

  166. Couldn’t resist a second shot…….
    Scientists power MIT !
    Principal Research Scientist Adam Schlosser takes a turn at spinning the turbine disguised as a Roulette Wheel after models predicted the wheel could Power MIT if turned at 3000rpm/24hrs per day. The wheel is cleverly colored to turn white once the correct speed is reached.

  167. “You spin me right round, baby right round like a record, baby right round, round, round…”

  168. “You do the Hokey-Pokey,
    And you spin the disk around.
    That’s what it’s all about!”
    With apologies to Roland Lawrence LaPrise / Chuck Macak / Tafft Baker

  169. The scientists can’t win. You criticise them relentlessly because the models have a large margin of error, they point this out, and you pillory them. They are telling you, these are the odds, and they are all losing odds at that, no one wins on this wheel.

  170. The scientists are not supposed to “win”. They are supposed to conduct science.
    The result of the spin, so far, is not even in the thin blue sliver. The observed results are not even on that wheel.
    A reasonable scientist would be expected to conclude that perhaps the wheel itself was in need of closer scrutiny.

  171. The scientists are not supposed to “win”. They are supposed to conduct science.

    They are passing on what they have found in a simple to understand way. The long term trend is up, models cannnot and do not predict year to year variations.

  172. Ted (08:54:09) :
    Caption: “MIT’s environmental spin doctors present their new climate predication algorithm, which they have been revising since the early 1990’s. ‘This is much more robust than the “dart-board” method,’ said one member of the team. ‘We’re just not very good a throwing darts.’”

    “Spin Doctors” is enough. Brevity is the soul of wit.

  173. Yes Jody. Sort of like a VR version of “Invasion of the Body Snatchers.” Look out your window for people running down the street crying, “They’re coming, they’re coming!”
    And cue spooky music.

  174. Jody (20:42:36) :
    I’ve been reading this blog and the posts that follow for awhile now so I want to get this straight. I can’t rely/trust on NASA, MIT, National Science Foundation or any other academic body for any scientific information?
    I don’t know who to believe? These are the scientist’s that have given me GPS technology, the Internet, digital TV, cell phones, nuclear energy, and numerous other innovations but now they are all scheming to take my money through taxation of CO2. Not only are the scientists in the US in on the scheme but it’s a global conspiracy.

    Yes, it is hard to understand. I think the reason is that the scientists and engineers who gave us so much technological innovation over the past decades are not the same people as the self-promoters who have given us this farrago of bad science, half-truths, and outright lies under the rubric of ‘climate science’. They have created a political movement that has captured not only the respected institutions you name, but entire governments, and not coincidentally has resulted in a rich gravy train of taxpayer money for those who hew to the party line, which consists of alarmist fabrications that have no basic in objectively-viewed fact or science.
    Writers on this blog have shown time and time again that the data stinks, but the ideologues and politicians run with it nonetheless. That’s not science, it’s insanity.
    /Mr Lynn

  175. Year to year, since 2000, the wheel has been off, and by no small amount. If these are the odds, I wouldn’t buy stock in it. Who, in their right mind, would believe in a stock that for nearly 10 years has shown no growth and at times, negative values? Yet there are folks who continue to side with these scientists, coming to their defense on what is nothing more than buying a pig in a poke. Are these people so repulsed by the idea that someone who should be trusted has been in reality, pulling the wool over their eyes? What is missed here is that a good scientist, one that cares not one wit for where the grant money is coming from, and instead relies on the observation, hypothesis, test, observation, hypothesis, test cycle, must must must think that way. This has been so in the past, else gravity would not have succumbed to relativity. The general public needs to think this same way, else street smarts will succumb to snake oil purchases once again.

  176. Pamela,
    You use the wrong metric in assessing growth in this affair. The growth and stock arrives in the reaffirmation of good science. That an enormous machine with (essentially) unlimited funds attempted to mold human imagination to accept its misanthropic view – has been defeated.
    For each year of zero or negative temperature rise – a far greater mark has been achieved. Slavish obedience to political ideology, cultism and shaming – is extinguished. Fear-based manipulation for whatever purported end does not stand muster. The exposure of this drama as the creation of misguided saviors, is in fact a cornerstone of human enlightenment.
    Not bad for a decade of no growth.

  177. Thanks to Simon (06:53:31) whose entry: “Look at the tree ring we found in Al Gore’s garden.” inspired me not so much with a caption entry but rather with a balloon where the guy in the suit says
    “Look you idiots, tree rings are supposed to be circular not pie shaped.”

  178. Caption should read “Next year we’ll build a wheel with 400 degrees to the full circle. Then we’ll be able to fit in +8 and +9 degrees Celcius as well!”

  179. Suggest the following modifications to the MIT photo:
    1) Hang some Mickey Mouse ears on all of them.
    2) Caption to read: Everbody – Sing Along! “MIT….KEY….MOUSE!!!!”
    I’m not sure which one should be Annette but the guy on the right looks suspiciously like Roy!
    As a long time lurker, I want to offer a huge “THANK YOU!” to Anthony Watts, Charles The Moderator, and the oh so many constructive contributors, for providing this most excellent space for rational discussion of the “Global Warming/Climate Change” hypotheses.

  180. “What good is a hockey stick without the puck?”
    or
    “… and this science moment is brought to you by Mattel, makers of the HOT new game called The Greenhouse Gamble. Spin the wheel. If you land on red you win millions in grant money. But, if you land on blue, oh no, you’re a SKEPTIC and must forfeit all previous winnings.”
    or
    “MIT scientists discover that watching this colorful wheel rotate in one direction can induce fanciful thought patterns and feelings of euphoria. When turned in the opposite direction, one experiences anxiety and feelings of inadequacy as can be seen in stark contrast in these test subjects”
    or
    “You should see what we did with the other tree ring samples!”
    or
    “Here MIT scientists have made a reconstruction of what the Ezekiel wheel must have looked like.”
    and finally
    “Johnny, to the left, was clearly not amused after his buddies decided on using the color of his shirt to represent the wedge that had no value.”

  181. Jody (20:42:36) :
    I’ve been reading this blog and the posts that follow for awhile now so I want to get this straight. I can’t rely/trust on NASA, MIT, National Science Foundation or any other academic body for any scientific information?
    I don’t know who to believe? These are the scientist’s that have given me GPS technology, the Internet, digital TV, cell phones, nuclear energy, and numerous other innovations but now they are all scheming to take my money through taxation of CO2. Not only are the scientists in the US in on the scheme but it’s a global conspiracy.

    I find it bewildering too, but this article by a reputable but sidelined climate scientist may help to understand what has happened
    http://www.nzcpr.com/guest166.htm
    [quote]”The US federal government has spent 80 billion US dollars on climate research on the assumption that human caused rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a problem. Despite this, no one has yet found even a shred of objective scientific evidence that humans are causing damaging global climate change.
    The so called evidence emanates from a vociferous group in the scientific community who, for a variety of reasons, are set on promoting predetermined conclusions not supported by empirical data or real-world observations. The science they rely on is all about the number of scientists who agree with them and claims of consensus to suppress quality control in climate research. “Taking a vote is a risky way to discover scientific truth”, warned climatologist Reid Bryson.[/quote]
    ….
    [quote]”The IPCC has been complicit in the scaremongering and exaggeration. The IPCC is a governmental institution that selectively accepts and rejects critical comments from expert reviewers of its reports, as my climate science colleagues and I can prove, having been part of the IPPC-managed review process. Surprisingly, given the great costs and social impacts of emissions reducing policies, there is no government “ombudsman” or any means to “audit” what is going on in the IPCC, or to tell if all the extravagantly funded research has been a good investment. The IPCC has been a major driver of global warming hysteria, which has overshadowed concern for real global-scale problems. “[/quote]
    Many other commentators have described how the issue has been hijacked, scientific caveats ignored and dissenters sidelined.
    [Note: square brackets don’t work on WordPress. Use the arrow keys over the period and comma. ~ dbs, mod.}

  182. Th caption should read:
    “I have finally done it. After months of grueling work and late nights, I have finally created the climate model that really works. And if the results do not tie to reality, we just spin it again. How great is that?”

  183. Good one Curtis Mears (04:34:24), there is a mystical irony to your caption contribution, given the actual climate trend is incongruent with their model predictions, this photo op. is crafty media “spin” to take attention away from this fact!

  184. Four members of the Union of Concerned Scientists at MIT announce the opening of a new restaurant close to the campus. They have named it “The Climate Carrion” after a novel cooking procedure developed by the four. Lefty “Two Fingers” F. Center, who lost all but two fingers of his right hand in a meat cutting accident, explained, “CO2 induced warming temperatures in the kitchen will influence the length of cooking time required to reach the desired doneness. Using extensive computer modeling, we have developed a chef friendly mechanism for adjusting the cooking temperature required to cook meat to the requested doneness”. The owners also declared that all meat products will come from animals humanely euthanized using CO2 gas.

  185. Caption: Harper Valley PTA Board posing with 5TH Grade teacher Justin Case demonstrating science fair winner titled, “Algorythm”. The project, entered by student Ida Mae DeLye, attempts to show the chance of mice defecating on a particular color in a maze (heated at different temperatures) and the “Algorythm’s” spin landing on that same color.

  186. Caption “After years and years and thousand’s of dollars in investment MIT invent the perfect way to tell which slice of pizza is hottest.”

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