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| Contact: Christopher Vaccaro FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
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El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10
NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.
NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.
“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.
El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niño’s have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.
An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean. These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.
In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.
El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.
NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit http://www.noaa.gov.
On the Web:
Forecast: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
NOAA’s El Niño site: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov
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I predict there will be no El Nino. What am I basing that off of? Nothing. But my prediction has just as much chance of being correct as NOAA’s. The last La Nina was supposed to be short and weak. It kept staying longer and longer and longer. Every time NOAA said La Nina would end in 3 months, it was still around 3 months later.
One of the driving factors behind El Nino and La Nina is trade winds. Stronger winds, the warm water stays bottled up near Australia. Weak winds, the warm water is allowed to flow toward South America. Who can forecast what trade winds are going to do? You can look at the trend and go from there. But really, my prediction is as good as anybody else’s.
Basil, you da man.
As an AGWer, I’m actually hoping for a moderate El Nino of +1.5C to +2.0C or so and for SC24 to remain reasonably quiet. This is both because a repeat of 1998 will be damaging to the environment, and because a more moderate event that crushes the 1998 records will be more convincing (and probably we’ll see another low in arctic sea ice as well).
And for all those anti-AGWers that are suggesting that we “remember” predictions like those I just made… Remember all the predictions that you are making. I’ve heard people make predictions on this blog that El Ninos will never happen again which has pretty convincingly fallen now. What happens when we simply have a substantially normal El Nino that lasts into next spring and doesn’t “collapse” in late fall? What happens when we beat the 1998 record and the whole “cooling for a decade” argument is no longer valid? What happens when solar cycle 24 heats up and that shows up in the ocean temperature measurements and the whole “flat since 2005” argument totally collapses? What happens when we set a new record low in arctic sea ice? If all those happen in the next 5 years, will you all admit that AGW is correct?
I think we should abandon the need for a consecutive 3 month or 5 month period. When the equatorial ocean temps get to +/-0.7C, it is an El Nino or a La Nina.
The ocean surface in this region doesn’t flip back and forth between warm and cool. It always takes a few months at least for temps to ramp up and/or cool down.
So, its an El Nino. The questions are how long will it last and will it be a large event?
Only 1 of the 4 main indicators is saying this will be a long event. Three of the four indicators, the Trade Winds, Atmospheric Angular Momemtum and the Southern Oscillation Index are not pointing to a large El Nino right now so that might indicate it will be short-lived (several months anyway as noted above).
The only indicator saying a large, long-lasting El Nino is the equatorial upper ocean content. In this case, it seems to be overwhelming the other drivers.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif
Leon Brozyna (08:36:15) :
The good news, I suppose, would be fewer Atlantic hurricanes – haven’t had a named storm yet this season – not even a “Tiny Tim”.
Maybe we need a naming convention for El Nino’s too.
So:
1983 – Goliath
1998 – King Kong
2009 – Pinocchio?
El Nino, hmm. That would explain why it’s been barely 60f here where I live in Western Washington for the last couple days, in July, in the millennium of AGW.
Pardon me while I go laugh my ass off.
For the week centered on Wed July 1, 2009, NINO3.4 SST anomalies (OI.v2 data) were at 0.88 deg C.
http://i27.tinypic.com/10py105.png
The June 2009 anomaly was 0.62 deg C.
http://i28.tinypic.com/9gda3c.png
The rest of my monthly update for June 2009 is here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/07/june-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html
If true, isn’t this good news for California if it means more rain?
Lamont 9:04:23
No, Lamont, I’ll admit nothing. I would like to see real understanding of climate, which we don’t have now. Even if those events you mention happen that is still no proof of the CO2=AGW paradigm, just as their corollaries are no real negation of the paradigm. But high sensitivity of climate to CO2 is just not being revealed; wide ranging episodes of weather even argue against it.
And just how, pray tell, would a more active sun warm the earth? I’m dying for the answer to that question.
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Any correlation between trade winds and the jet stream?
Bill Illis: To add to those, Western Pacific Warm Water Volume and Depth-Averaged Temperature are not above the “norm” for the post 1997/98 El Nino.
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/gif/wwv_t300_anom_w.gif
TAO Project data here:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/
Moderately hot summer and autumn; some heat waves and thunderstorms will be happening from the second week in July to the first week in September; dry and mild winter with few cold days for the Northeast of Mexico. Few hurricanes which will not surpass class 3 in SS-scale, at the most. On the other hand, Media scaring machinery has started its campaign; however, without mentioning the effects of El Niño, but attributing it to the “climate change” due to human activities, of course.
Well I’m sure the folks fretting over drought in California will be pleased to know relief may come. But then once La Nina hits again…’Oh noes! Drought!’
Come on. Why don’t you praise the rain when its in cycle.
With weather, it’s always feast or famine! Same with life!
To me, some people just love to whine about everything.
Because to them, everything is bad. That is the same reason why the wolf ate Peter…er…the people didn’t listen to Peter’s screams.
Lots of other factors makes this El Nino a wild card. Earlier we had two volcanoes erupting in the Northern Hemisphere (Redoubt and Sarychev Peak) and the PDO turning negative and these events will mitigate El Nino. I’m betting NOAA’s prediction for warmer temperatures will be incorrect.
I just hope it brings some rain to TX. We are baking here in Austin!
It’s been a strangely cool summer so far in Chicago area. I for one will welcome the warm weather – winter sucks.
I’ve got a high res sea ice video from ASMR-E sensors that you can really see the detail of the ice pushing around.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/07/09/fantastic-high-resolution-video-of-sea-ice/
Can someone explain to me-I don’t get how the PDO is in negative phase when EL NINO conditions prevail.
Ok, let’s see… a little warm water made it to the top… in summer time… ok! The with a generally cooler atmosphere it should help cool down that layer and might cool down even faster since we expect cooler temperature for the winter… ok! So? What’s the big deal here except proving that NOAA has a bad prediction record and most likely won’t get that one right either? Obviously, “NOAA DOES NOT HAVE A CLUE TO predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
I think the most important temperature that would be useful is the average temperature of the oceans to see if it is going dow… like that of the atmosphere.
This is not an El Nino folks. It is an El Nino condition ADVISORY and only just barely. The month average has to be .5 or above and then predicted to stay that way for 3 months or longer in order for the condition to stay current. If the prediction holds true, after that it can be called an El Nino condition and not just an ADVISORY. And then after 5 months it can be called an El Nino Event. Or something like that. It is expected that temps right now would continue to be cool (no need to laugh) and warm a bit into possibly an Indian Summer. But that’s it folks. The show will be over come November. IMHO.
“”” Flanagan (08:24:55) :
Yes Brian, predictions that are actually observed should be emphasized. “””
Let’s face it; you start with a 50:50 shot. Might as well go for it; you’ll wins some and lose some.
George
Lamont:
“What happens when we simply have a substantially normal El Nino that lasts into next spring and doesn’t “collapse” in late fall? (1) What happens when we beat the 1998 record and the whole “cooling for a decade” argument is no longer valid? (2) What happens when solar cycle 24 heats up and that shows up in the ocean temperature measurements and the whole “flat since 2005″ argument totally collapses? (3) What happens when we set a new record low in arctic sea ice? (4) If all those happen in the next 5 years, will you all admit that AGW is correct? (5) ”
Absolutely! The thing about being a skeptic, not a denier, is that you are driven by information, not idealogue. I have very little opinion on question #1, but it 2-4 happen and #5, which is they happen in the next 5 years happens, you will ABSOLUTELY have my vote. It will be hard for 2009 to reverse the 10 year trend at it’s present rate, so the decade thing will probably stand…. I believe that a warmer Earth is a better Earth, which will provide more growing areas, more evaporation and life giving rain and longer growing seasons, but I will bow to the wise AGW theory if these 5 signposts comes to pass.
Let me turn it around and throw out #1 about the El Nino. If we do NOT surpass 1998, in the next 5 years, if we continue to cool, even as SC24 eventually does start up (and it peaks WELL short of the last 5 cycles), if the Ocean’s temps and levels remain flat to cool (recede) for 5 years – will you leave behind your misguided models?
I saw a great article from a physicist born in 1945, who lived through 25 years of cooling until 1970. Then 28 years of warming, through 1998. Now he has seen 10 years of cooling again – he asks the question – HOW CAN I BE ALARMED AT THIS NON TREND? I ask how can anyone? The guy’s 53 years old, by my calculation. How many well meaning AGWer’s were born closer to the 1970 mark and simply lack perspective and life experience?
Lamont, if your bold predictions occur, you win my vote – I say it again. Maybe Anthony will consent to post your comment every year, 1 time on it’s anniversary, for 5 years? It’s the first reasonable post I’ve seen from your side of the equation. You made a prediction, you asked reasonable questions – are you sure you REALLY beliebve in AGW?
Lamont: “If all those happen in the next 5 years, will you all admit that AGW is correct?”
Actually, no. These things might indicate that the earth is warming again/still, but it would prove nothing about the cause being human activity. Something caused the Earth to warm up to end the last Ice Age, and we know that wasn’t human activity.
There’s two pieces to the AGW argument: (1) is the Earth warming and (2) did people cause it? Proving (1) does nothing to prove (2).
I sincerely hope we have an El Nino, as those of us in California need the rain to make up for a three year deficit. There have been 3 El Ninos since 2000, and yet global temps. have been drifting lower since then, so it remains to be seen if that trend changes. UAH reported tropical ocean, mid tropo. temperature anomaly of -.05 for June 2009. They reported the same anomaly for June 1979. Evidently the Earth is very good at regulating it’s temperature., IMHO.
Take a look at where the jet stream is and what it looks like over WA and OR. It has a weak main component from West to East just below Oregon and heading slightly northeast. But there is another piece that has a stronger North-South flow that is bringing us some natural air conditioning. So yes, you be cool in Washington (and here in Oregon as well).
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif
Lamont (09:04:23) : “…will you all admit that AGW is correct?”
Say what? Sorry, pal. There was an ice age that ended some 17,000 years ago (date debatable) and Earth has been warming ever since with fits and starts. What has changed?