excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
It was my fault for being a little (lot) vague.
I meant the anomalies.
DaveE
More global warming, downunder…
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/freezing-morning-forecast-for-nw-sydney-20090610-c3n5.html
Can’t wait, haven’t had an icy start in years…
And more snowy weather down under…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25615239-2702,00.html?from=public_rss
Here is something the science is in crowed can not agree on, i taught the story was global warming would make more storms but:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090610/ap_on_sc/us_sci_diminishing_winds
“The wind, a favorite power source of the green energy movement, seems to be dying down across the United States. And the cause, ironically, may be global warming — the very problem wind power seeks to address.”
“The new study “demonstrates, rather conclusively in my mind, that average and peak wind speeds have decreased over the U.S. in recent decades,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University.
A naysayer is Gavin Schmidt, a NASA climate scientist in New York who said the results conflict with climate models that show no effect from global warming. He also doubts that any decline in the winds that might be occurring has much of an effect on wind power.”
I am a longtime fan of Joe B. It is good to see him on WUWT.
Mike D. (16:41:42)
Isn’t lightning caused by the electric polarity between the ground and water vapor in the air? More water vapor -> more lightning, I thought.
–
Why would colder temps, meaning less water vapor, lead to less lightning (that part makes sense to me) but stronger bolts (which I think is what was implied)?
–
I have never understood dry lightning. I get that there was lightning without rain, but there had to be water vapor aloft or there would have been no lightning, right?
*****************
Forget the water vapor for a minute. Lightning is caused by static electricity. When you have a storm there are rising and falling (warmer and cooler) columns of air. As these columns of air are rapidly lifting and falling they rub together and they gather charge, much they way that you would scuffing your socks across a carpet.
In a storm with a sharper contrast in air mass temperatures, there is increased lift, and subsequently increased lightning charge being built up. Moisture is not required, only a difference in air temperatures is needed to create lift. That is where you can have dry lightning. As long as the air is mixing, it can gather a charge. As far as storms forming where it is colder having more or less lightning, again, that is a function of the level of contrast in air temperatures between the masses.
–
While the atmosphere may be a little more conductive when it is more humid, it is only to a limited extent. My understanding is that once discharge potential(voltage) is reached, the stepped leader establishes a path, and the 50,000ºF bolt has turned the air to plasma in that bolt path, creating a conductive return path. It matters little if the air is wet or dry at 50k F.
In a drier (less conductive) atmosphere there will be a slightly higher voltage potential reached before the stepped leader bolt can be established, but I don’t think that in the grand scheme of things that it would be that much stated as a percentage.
The one place that I see water vapor entering this is that it is thought that the ice crystals in the cloud offer somewhat of an electrical barrier, and increase the capacitance of the cloud formation, permitting increased storage capacity before discharge.
Maybe someone with a better understanding can correct us both and fill in a few gaps.
John Egan (11:19:25) :
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
At this site, most of us apply a principle you’ll find novel: causality. Here’s a link that will get you started in learning about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causality
I’d like a source on the “very scarce credit.” Because EVERY SINGLE THING I’ve read, including the latest USDA forecasts, is predicting d— near a record low harvest due to PROLONGED WINTER CONDITIONS. See, there’s that pesky causality.
I’d also like to know where prices have “plummeted.” At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat and corn are both skyrocketing. You should go out and buy some wheat at “plummeted” prices – you stand to make a tidy profit selling to the dolts who haven’t gotten the word.
A word to the wise. This site is not part of the uneducated, left wing, echosphere. When you make false assertions about the real world, expect to get embarrassed.
Regarding crops 2009, my farming relatives have been very disappointed in the low germination rates this year due to cool weather.
Modern China cares about as much about “anthropogenic global warming” as Chairman Mao did about providing his population with five-course steak dinners. AGW’s only use, as far as the Chinese are concerned, is as an ingenious device to suck up money and power from the gullible west.
Light rainshowers from a mid winter type “overrunning plume” type system in Nor Cal today.
DAVID WALTON
said “Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton”. Don’t be so hard on yourself David, we don’t consider you a nitwit, merely a halfwit.
If parts of the US are going to have to do without a summer this year, what’s the winter going to be like?
More specifically (and personally) what will the Bay Area and Denver be like in December, as that’s where and when I intend to visit this year? Oh, and would it be particularly stupid to catch a train from one to the other at that time of year?
(Bear in mind that I’m English and am trying to uphold my nation’s reputation for eccentricity – I support the Raiders, isn’t that proof enough?)
Mr GG: “…I’m English …I support the Raiders…”
My condolences. That’s the second empire you’ve lost.
Smokey (09:48:55) :
Mr GG: “…I’m English …I support the Raiders…”
My condolences. That’s the second empire you’ve lost.
On the other hand, I found a (Raider) nation 😉
“”” Robert Wood (18:48:11) :
DaveE @17:54:01
Ever notice that the HOT places are always ARID?
You don’t get out much, do you? “””
Well not exactly; I take it you have never stood on a boat out on a typical Tarpon flat in the Florida Keys; or a steam tropical jungle.
Seems like water presence has something to do with it.
Now admittedly the hottest places do tend to be dry deserts;because they don’t have a lot of water vapor in the air; which can block as much as 20% of the incoming solar radiation , so you would get a much higher ground level insolation (that is part of the negative feedback effect that water vapor can have).
But by the same token, at night time, those same arid deserts can get really cold because ther eis no water vapor to keep the infra red radiation from escaping and cooling the ground.
However even over the most arid deserts at night, you still have the full complement of CO2 and other non H2O GHGs. Well too bad they don’t really do much in the way of warming, because they certainly don’t stop the deserts from getting cold at night.
No matter how you cut it; CO2 just isn’t very effective as a green house gas; and by itself has little warming effect; whereas water vapor without CO2 and we would never know the difference.
George
Across the pond here in England, we’ve been having some cold weather, too. Must admit we’ve had five days of about 80 degrees but once again the temperatures have dropped over the past week to the mid-50s (although the temperatures given on TV are those in London which is always about 3 degrees higher than elsewhere). Three days ago there was enough snow in Northern Scotland for a photograph to appear in a paper of a pretty hefty snowman and it was reported that snow had also fallen on the small mountain range called the Penines which runs like a backbone down the sort-of centre of England, ending in the Midlands. Yes, I remember one late May, early June when we had a bit of snow before but that was back in 1975.
Ever notice that whenever the media talks about forests, ice sheets, glaciers, volcanoes, asteroids, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc they always use the line ‘roughly the size of Manhattan’.
Examples of use…
‘This year the planet lost an area of ice roughly the size of Manhattan. If the trend continues within ten years sea levels will rise and engulf an area of land roughly the size of Manhattan!’
‘Unless something urgent is done an asteroid roughly the size of Manhattan will hit an area of Mahattan roughly the size of Manhattan!’
If you want to force the creation of new laws nothing works better than scaring the bejesus out of wealthy New Yorkers.
Here is proof:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+earthquake&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+fire&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+flood&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+asteroid&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+volcano&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+ice&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+tsunami&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+nuclear&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+al+gore&btnG=Search
Lance (01:16:07), Ray B (05:35:46):
Thank you very much for the lessons. Even in my dotage I believe I am capable of learning a new thing or two.
An Inquirer (05:50:56) :
“Regarding crops 2009, my farming relatives have been very disappointed in the low germination rates this year due to cool weather.”
If this year is not good and last year and the year before difficult, then what about next year?
There is good reason to believe that the El Nino will be stillborn and La Nina will return.
See “El Nino. How big? How long?” at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
ENSO is climate change in action. You are seeing it as it happens.
I dont know what the rest of the year in Canada will be like but colder temperatures prevailed in the winter as well as the spring. [ICECAP has the post .]
CANADA’S SPRING TEMPERATURE TREND COMPARISON 2006-2009
ENVIORNMENT CANADA-SPRING REGIONAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM 1948-2009 TREND BASE
REGION DIFFERENCE [2006-2009]
ATLANTIC CANADA -1.4 C
GREAT LAKES /ST. LAWRENCE -1.1 C
NORTHEASTERN FOREST -3.8 C
NORTHWESTERN FOREST -4.5 C
PRAIRIES -3.1 C
SOUTH BRITISH COLUMBIA MTS -1.6 C
PACIFIC COAST -0.5 C
NORTH BC MTS/YUKON -0.2 C
MACKENZIE DISTRICT -4.1 C
ARCTIC TUNDRA -3.9 C
ARCTIC MTS AND FIORDS -3.0 C
CANADA -3.3 C [WINTER FIGURE WAS [-3.6C]
THE DIFFERENCE IS CALCULATED BY DETERMINING THE NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 2006 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE AND THE 2009 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE
Temperature Departures for each of the last four year for Canada for spring [March, April, May] over the 1948-2009 base trend line were:
2006 2.9 C
2007 0.5 C
2008 0.4 C
2009 -0.4 C [negative] 45th warmest or 18 Th coldest since 1948
The 2009 spring season for al of Canada was 3.3 C degrees colder than the 2006 spring. Similar 2009 figure for the spring of Northwestern Forest region [north half of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba was [-4.5C] colder than 2006
DATED JUNE 10, 2009
http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/rtable_e.html?region=f&table=temperature&season=Spring&date=2009&rows=62
Steve Schaper (00:13:54) :
“SE Minnesota, eh? Dave Wendt, maybe you can find out what is with the Century High School weather station that is consistently 5-10 degrees higher than the airport or suburban weather stations. (Century is up out of the Zumbro Valley – it -should- be -cooler- (except when there is no wind and a clear sky)”
It should not be any colder at all since it is almost rural. Do you have any idea where the station is on campus? I could check it out for you. BTW, where are you seeing the temps reported?
oops, meant warmer of course.
Thank you Matt V.
Here’s another post from icecap on crop yields threatened by cold weather in Canada.
If this is global warming, the plants just aren’t buying it.
Does this prove that some people (warming alarmists) are stupider than vegetables?
Regards, Allan
Canada frosts the most widespread in recent memory
Tue Jun 9, 2009 1:54pm EDT
By Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) – The multiple frosts that have blanketed Western Canada in the last week are the most widespread in the top canola-growing province of Saskatchewan in at least five years, the Canola Council of Canada said on Tuesday.
Two overnight frosts last week have already resulted in some Saskatchewan farmers reseeding their canola, a Canadian variant of rapeseed, said Jim Bessel, senior agronomy specialist in the province for the industry group Canola Council.
Other farmers are waiting to see growth signs that would suggest their canola plants have survived the frost, which lasted for up to five hours at a stretch. That new growth is slow to appear with generally cool temperatures holding crop development behind schedule.
“We just don’t see a lot of activity happening from a crop development perspective,” Bessel said. “(The extent of frost damage) is a really difficult one to call right now … It’s very erratic.”
In Manitoba, the frost is the worst in memory for its frequency and area covered, said Derwyn Hammond, the province’s senior agronomy specialist for the Canola Council.
“Certainly (it’s) the worst year I’ve seen,” said Hammond, who has worked for the Canola Council for 15 years.
With deadlines for full canola crop insurance ranging between June 10 and 20 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Hammond said he expects most farmers will choose not to reseed.
Cool weather may have actually saved some of the new crop that was at such an early growing stage that it wasn’t yet vulnerable to frost, said Doon Pauly, crop specialist for the government of the western province of Alberta.
“It’s the equivalent to a frost in the second or third week of May,” Pauly said. “That’s the bright side.”
The downside of the cool weather is that it has left crops in general well behind schedule, he said. The Alberta canola crop is two to three weeks behind development, Pauly said, while the Canadian Wheat Board estimated on Monday that Western Canada wheat and barley crops are at least 10 days behind.
Fields with frost damage can develop bare pockets or a thinned-down plant population that gives weeds more room to grow, said Pauly, adding that some Alberta areas reported frost as recently as Tuesday morning.
But despite frosts and cool weather, it’s too early to say if canola yields will suffer, he said.
“Canola is so plastic. If the remainder of June we get good moisture and reasonable heat, the yields can recover.”
(Editing by Marguerita Choy)
To Aron (12:24:33):
Thanks for the interesting but lengthy comment — it was roughly the size of Manhattan.
i live in australia, the desert continent
i remember horrendous summers that reached 45 C in my childhood..
this year.. summer was more like autumn [fall]… i think there were 3 hot days, and they sure didn’t reach previous temps.
now, it’s just a few days into winter, and for the first time in my -life-, i had to go outside with a beanie, insulated gloves, a turtleneck, a huge jacket, and boots.. you used to be able to get away with just a sweater.
apparently it’s snowing in places it’s never snowed before in australia.
Statement of Congressman Ron Paul
United States House of Representatives
Statement on Global Warming Petition Signed by 31,478 Scientists
June 4, 2009
* Mr. PAUL. Madam Speaker, before voting on the “cap-and-trade” legislation, my colleagues should consider the views expressed in the following petition that has been signed by 31,478 American scientists:
* “We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
* There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”
* Circulated through the mail by a distinguished group of American physical scientists and supported by a definitive review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, this may be the strongest and most widely supported statement on this subject that has been made by the scientific community. A state-by-state listing of the signers, which include 9,029 men and women with PhD degrees, a listing of their academic specialties, and a peer-reviewed summary of the science on this subject are available at http://www.petitionproiect.org.
* The peer-reviewed summary, “Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide” by A. B. Robinson, N. E. Robinson, and W. Soon includes 132 references to the scientific literature and was circulated with the petition.
* Signers of this petition include 3,803 with specific training in atmospheric, earth, and environmental sciences. All 31,478 of the signers have the necessary training in physics, chemistry, and mathematics to understand and evaluate the scientific data relevant to the human-caused global warming hypothesis and to the effects of human activities upon environmental quality.
* In a letter circulated with this petition, Frederick Seitz–past President of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, President Emeritus of Rockefeller University, and recipient of honorary doctorate degrees from 32 universities throughout the world–wrote:
* “The United States is very close to adopting an international agreement that would ration the use of energy and of technologies that depend upon coal, oil, and natural gas and some other organic compounds.
* This treaty is, in our opinion, based upon flawed ideas. Research data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful. To the contrary, there is good evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful.
* The proposed agreement we have very negative effects upon the technology of nations throughout the world; especially those that are currently attempting to lift from poverty and provide opportunities to the over 4 billion people in technologically underdeveloped countries.
* It is especially important for America to hear from its citizens who have the training necessary to evaluate the relevant data and offer sound advice.”
* We urge you to sign and return the enclosed petition card. If you would like more cards for use by your colleagues, these will be sent.”
* Madam Speaker, at a time when our nation is faced with a severe shortage of domestically produced energy and a serious economic contraction; we should be reducing the taxation and regulation that plagues our energy-producing industries.
* Yet, we will soon be considering so-called “cap and trade” legislation that would increase the taxation and regulation of our energy industries. “Cap and-trade” will do at least as much, if not more, damage to the economy as the treaty referred by Professor Seitz! This legislation is being supported by the claims of “global warming” and “climate change” advocates–claims that, as demonstrated by the 31,477 signatures to Professor Seitz’ petition, many American scientists believe is disproved by extensive experimental and observational work.
* It is time that we look beyond those few who seek increased taxation and increased
[Page: E1325] GPO’s PDF
regulation and control of the American people. Our energy policies must be based upon scientific truth–not fictional movies or self-interested international agendas. They should be based upon the accomplishments of technological free enterprise that have provided our modern civilization, including our energy industries. That free enterprise must not be hindered by bogus claims about imaginary disasters.
* Above all, we must never forget our contract with the American people–the Constitution that provides the sole source of legitimacy of our government. That Constitution requires that we preserve the basic human rights of our people–including the right to freely manufacture, use, and sell energy produced by any means they devise–including nuclear, hydrocarbon, solar, wind, or even bicycle generators.
* While it is evident that the human right to produce and use energy does not extend to activities that actually endanger the climate of the Earth upon which we all depend, bogus claims about climate dangers should not be used as a justification to further limit the American people’s freedom.
In conclusion, I once again urge my colleagues to carefully consider the arguments made by the 31,478 American scientists who have signed this petition before voting on any legislation imposing new regulations or taxes on the American people in the name of halting climate change. http://www.house.gov/apps/list/speech/tx14_paul/GlobalWarmingJune4.shtml