AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi: "the 'science is in' crowd does not want them to see facts" and parts of US to have "year without a summer"

excerpts:

From Joe’s European Weather Blog:

The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.

First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.

And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:

According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.

Yikes!

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:

and the 30 day CPC forecast here

off15_temp

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Just Want Results...

Joe Bastardi!!
I’ve always liked him. And I have wished to see some guest posts from him here!!!

APE

small typo thats year not ear without a summer
REPLY: Thanks fixed. – Anthony

AZScott

In PHX AZ it was 90 degrees today and the cool weather started last Friday. This is Arizona in June where it is never this cool for any more than a day. Clouds have been in the sky just about every day for a couple of weeks as well. As an AZ native of 34 years, this weather does not happen here.

Leon Brozyna

A good example of the way two different organizations operate:
Accuweather is a for-profit entity – they’ve got to get it right else they won’t be in business for long. So they stick their necks out long before NOAA ever mumbles anything about an El Niño.
The impression I used to have is that NOAA’s NWS was the ‘gold standard’ in weather forecasting; it’s now looking more like fool’s gold as the impression I’m getting is that they look at how the data conforms to their models. Probably fallout from the poor scientific methods being practiced these days by the closed climate science community.
And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement rooted in nothing but mass hysteria.

John F. Hultquist

The phrase “year without a summer” has been used to describe a particular historic period that was quite severe and followed the explosion of Mount Tambora. I don’t sense that this post is suggesting anything quite so drastic although maybe that is the idea. Maybe a clarification is possible.

timetochooseagain

I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.

Geo

Here in Minnesota, “summer” so far was two days in May that hit record warms in the 90s. Other than that, it’s mostly been unseasonably cool, sometimes with highs in the 50s in June!

Pofarmer

If anybody could find anymore on the “year without a summer” comment, I’d be most grateful. I’ve been looking around accuweather, and elsewhere, but can’t find anything. Maybe it was a private comment. I don’t know.

Flanagan

“The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. ”
Does he mean the global cooling since 2008?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2008/plot/rss/from:2008/trend
or in the last 12 months?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:12/plot/rss/last:12/trend
REPLY: why don’t you write and ask him the question directly instead of your snark? He puts his email address right on his blog, reposted here for your convenience:
bastardi@accuweather.com

Dave Wendt

I suspect he may be correct about the northern plains. I just checked the records for my locale here in SE MN and since the start of May we’ve had 9 days where the daily aver temp had a positive departure from normal, 1 in the last 18 days. The numbers for daily highs and lows are comparable, with one daily record low in May. Evidently Mr. Waxman was right and all that evaporating ice has caused the arctic tundra to raise up enough to ramp all that cold down here to the lower 48. BTW, Joe Bastardi? Ain’t he the guy who killed Kenny? Sorry, couldn’t help myself. He’s probably heard that one as often as I’ve heard Hey Wendt, where’d you go?

Just Want Results...

part 2, Joe Bastardi on global warming. Starts at 2:05 of video :

Leon Brozyna (22:04:06) : “…And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement rooted in nothing but mass hysteria.”
This era will also be looked on as the time when the mass media wrote themselves full tilt into social irrelevance and financial suicide.

rbateman

Stuck weather patterns.
The West is stuck with an unusually far south Low.
Last year it was the winds. Windstorms.
People are noticing.
In Sacramento, in June, you go to work dressed for hot weather.
Not this year. Don’t put that sweather away just yet.
2.5 years into this minimum, and this is what the most prevalent active regions on the sun graph out like: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/2006_9a.JPG
Don’t hold your breath expecting the 2nd quarter of 09 to be that much different than the 1st quarter.
We’ve had a few spots, the flux is up, but other than that, this graphic tells a lot about how strong things are:
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/swind1.gif
Correlation? Yes.
Causation? Does it really matter??
If nothing changes, expect more of the same.

E.M.Smith

Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd. I’ve seen him on at least two, and I think it may have been three (!) competing financial channels in the same week. They don’t waste their time on other sources. He talks, and the futures traders place bets. It’s that simple.
Millions of dollars move in minutes. I remember last year when a hurricane was headed into the gulf. He predicted what it would do to oil facilities (where it would hit) and prices moved in sync. There was maybe a 2 minute lag from when he spoke to when prices moved. Even the floor brokers had to be watching (or had a feed into the ear bug…).
He is right far more often than not. I have tremendous respect for the man and anything he says.
Also: At least you all can see The Big Blue Blob sitting on top of my head…
If you draw a line from the “kink” in California where it wraps around Nevada to the bottom edge of the “ear” that is San Francisco bay, I’m at the earlobe 😉 more or less…
See, I wasn’t just griping with no good reason… I was griping with a perfectly good reason 8-{
And it looks like we’re “special” enough to stay under The Big Blue Blob for the next 30 days. Oh Joy. /sarcoff>
Somebody tell Pamela to start trialing Barley cultivars and looking for a local mill / purchaser or brewpub that malts their own… Or maybe oats…

Max

Maybe the UK Met is operating on the axiom that if you just keeping predicting the same thing, eventually you’re bound to be right.

rbateman

Pofarmer (22:35:49) :
The year without a summer was 1816.
In Europe, the summer was cold, wet, dark & gloomy.
In the Northern US, it was the “year without the summer”. Killing frosts occured in every month, and crops were widely ruined.
In Ohio, it was known as Eighteen Hundred and froze to death.
In New England, it was known as “The Mackerel Year” (they ate fish because everything else failed !!).
Do keep in mind that 1816 was in the middle of SC6. The 2nd bum cycle in the Dalton Minimum. We’ve a long way to go… provided SC24 gets off the ground. No guarantees.

lulo

The cold extends from the northern plains into southern Alberta, where even the most cautious gardener has been hammered this spring. Sub-zero temperatures in the cities of Calgary and Lethbridge rarely occur beyond the May 24 long weekend. This year, Calgary has seen snow in June, and Lethbridge has had 4 days below zero Celsius in June (after 10 sub-zero nights in May), including the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (all-time). 30 cm of snow was reported in parts of the SE corner of Alberta and the SW corner of Saskatchewan on June 6. It has been undeniably out-of-the-ordinary, with nothing similar in the climate record in nearly sixty years, and with all-time records commonplace. In northern Montana, a huge snowstorm affected the plains in May, and the plains turned white yet again in many regions – this time in June. Above normal temperatures are finally predicted by Friday, but the region has had below normal temperatures in most months during the past two years. I, for one, am sick of the negative PDO and the extended solar minimum, or whatever the heck is causing this.

Pauls

Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
You [snip -ad hom] if you believe a 1 year plot will argue your [snip] cause….

David Walton

Joe telling it like it is. It doesn’t get any better than this. Gee whiz, no post for Joe on “Real Climate”?

David Walton

Re: Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd.
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.

Frank Lansner
pkatt

El nino is 5 overlapping seasons at or above +.5 .. Considering it hasnt even gone positive yet, and 4 out of 5 of the last ‘seasons’ were La Nina conditions broken only by this last one at -0.1, isn’t it a little soon to be crowing about a El Nino this year?

stumpy

You will be glad to know the winter in New Zealand so far has also been shaping up to be colder normal – but its just weather of course!

Jimmy Haigh

I’m in Singapore (1 degree north of the equator) for a few days. The maximum temperature here today was 32 degrees C. The maximum temperature here is always around 30-32 C.
My question for the global warmongers is this: Surely if we have been having global warming, the average temperature in Singapore should also be rising?

Pierre Gosselin

I’ve been reading Joe’s European blog for about a year.
I agree – I think it’d be great to have him as a guest writer! But I’m sure he has plenty on his plate already.
In any case I hope to hear more of his views, like this one here.
I think his forecasts have been more accurate than those from the UK MET circus.
@Just want results,
thanks for the clip.

Sandy

“Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.”
A marvelously rational scientific statement!

tallbloke

APE (21:45:37) :
small typo thats year not ear without a summer

I think the warmista are aiming to have a summer without ears. They certainly don’t like hearing about June snows.

I like your site. Here in Berkshire UK it IS a cold June – not exceptionally so: temperatures will reach 16 centigrade today but it is overcast, damp and showery and this weather is set to stay for a week or so. Normally in UK we’d expect to be watching the exertions of the men on the cricket pitch whilst we sported sun hats and cooled ourselves with chilled strawberries and cream and not swathed in waterproofs scuttling from A to B between showers. Not so.
Would you care to comment on the recent tragic crash of the Airbus 300 (AF flight 447). It has been suggested that the weather had something to do with it …”unusual storm conditions” was the phrase the media used? Maybe it’s too early to comment but what concerns me is didn’t the departure airport know how bad the weather conditions were? Should the flight have been grounded? How much detail and over what distance of the flight path would the (any) departure airport have before its flights take off? Were other aircraft types flying similar routes at the same time? I think we need some input from the weather men here. I hope there will be some kind of memorial set up soon. Our hearts go out to the 228 deceased and their friends and families.

Anthony, these are another chilling news for the soon chilling world. Coming from the tropics and just north of the equator, the situation is not different from us here in the Philippines. Thick clouds or rains everyday for almost 2 weeks now, except last Saturday. The local tourism sector is affected. Many people stay in the cities and dont go out of town because of fear of flooding in some roads.

rtgr

cold weather between 5 and 20 june is a normal phenomenon in NW Europe esspecially in germany and the netherlands . its called schafskälte or sheepherder cold
in this cool and rainy period sheepherders shave their sheep so they dont get burned by the sun.
Its also called European monsoon. This weather patern occurs because Europe`s mainland is warming up fast, but the ocean is still relatifly cold, causing a drop in pressure above the mainland, so that colder air from west /northwest flows into europe

Raven

Joe Bastardi reminds me of Nouriel Roubini:
.
“On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession.”
.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html
This quote from the article had me howling and seeing the parallel
When the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini’s talk, he noted that *Roubini’s predictions did not make use of mathematical models* and dismissed his hunches as those of a career naysayer.

Chris Wood

Leon Brozyna- Not hysteria but a deliberate agenda to close down capitalism and stop
globalisation, encouraged by left wing governments which are seizing the opportunity to impose higher taxes and tighten their grip on the public.

smallz79

Can we get a link to news cast? I searched fox quickly I may missed it

Rhys Jaggar

Well, if you go to NCDC’s monthly temperature data site, you will find the following:
1. May was very much warmer than normal in the SW USA.
2. For the year to date, only one state in the extreme northern mid-west is below the 1971 – 2000 average, whereas most of the SW is above normal and the extreme SW (Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada) very much above normal. The rest of the country is around normal.
So I guess a cool June in the SW might just start to even up the score……….

smallz79

Or is it just a blog? When will someone talk about it on the news? This is rediculous. Blogs are fine, but they do not reach far wide like the good ol’ TV/Radio, that by the way I watch very sparingly. I like to see things in print, but for the sake of arguing it would be nice to see something that has aired on public TV. Any that is my OT spiel(spell check)

Jack Simmons

Flanagan (22:39:49) :

“The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. ”
Does he mean the global cooling since 2008?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2008/plot/rss/from:2008/trend
or in the last 12 months?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:12/plot/rss/last:12/trend

For non-cherry picking analysis of long term temperature changes and their relationship to carbon dioxide, take a look at this:
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateReflections.htm#20080927:%20Reflections%20on%20the%20correlation%20between%20global%20temperature%20and%20atmospheric%20CO2

Simon

I blame Mt Redoubt.

Re rbateman (23:04:05)
1816 was profoundly affected by the Plinian erruption of Tambora, of 10th April 1815, which lopped some 5,000 feet off the top of the mountain.
The intensity was some 4X that of Krakatau’s famed 1883 erruption.
Global temperatures dropped by 0.3C-0.5C the following summer.

rbateman

I remember the big lightning we used to have 50 years ago in California. This year I am finally seeing the return of that. I wonder if there is historical data kept on big lightning storms?

Oh, an interesting chart on Wiki.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenland_sulfate.png
Shows the 1816-17 spike in sulphate particles, produced by Tambora, in the Greenland ice from http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1991/91JD01634.shtml
from Dai et al, 1991.
Also shows a spike of similar amplitude, in 1810, from an unknown eruption, probably one of the remote, Andean, volcanos was responsible for that.
A “double -whammy” (Maybe triple, combined with the low solar activity?)

Two years ago in Kabul, Afghanistan the June temps hovered around 33°C.
Last year June hovered around 31°C.
Forecast through about 17 June we’re looking at about 27°C. Still getting rain…very unusual. Still snow in the higher elevations west of the city.
Today a lovely 24°C. I’ll enjoy it while I can.

pkatt: You wrote, “El nino is 5 overlapping seasons at or above +.5 .. Considering it hasnt even gone positive yet, and 4 out of 5 of the last ’seasons’ were La Nina conditions broken only by this last one at -0.1, isn’t it a little soon to be crowing about a El Nino this year?”
That’s for an El Nino to be considered “official” on ONI. Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies, however, have been working their way toward El Nino conditions. NINO3.4 SST anomalies (OI.v2 SST) have been positive for 6 weeks, though they haven’t crossed the threshold of 0.5 deg C yet. And most models are predicting a moderate El Nino for the 2009/10 season. Are the model predictions right? Sometimes.

Robert

There were several ‘years without a summer’ during the 14th century in Northern Europe. This led to widespread famine. The wether was wet and cold for many of the sumer months. For more information on this interesting century see Barbar Tuchmann ‘s ‘A distant Mirror’. This was the end of the medieval warm period.

Allan M R MacRae

If Joe B is right, what is the impact, if any, on the Canada + USA grain harvest this year?
Down by 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Has Joe’s prediction had any effect on grain futures yet?
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, faites vos jeux.

Tony Hansen

“..ear without a summer”. Van Gough had many a summer without an ear.

Pauls (23:37:06) :
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here

Surely this is the bigger picture …..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/trend

Flanagan (22:39:49),
You forfeit credibility when you use woodfortrees as an authoritative citation. It is the ultimate cherry-picking site — you can make a graph that shows anything at all.
I use WFT myself occasionally to verify facts for my own interest. It’s a fun site that lets a user create instant graphs. But as the authoritative source in your posted comment, all it shows is that you’ve lost the argument. Sort of like using the extremely biased Wikipedia to validate your runaway global warming arguments.

Michael D Smith

JLKrueger (02:18:24) :
Be careful over there JL… And enjoy the weather.

joe bastardi

Here is the post I had on the accuweather,com pro site around 10 days ago
IS THIS A TOP 5 COLD SUMMER IN THE MAKING IN THE LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
Perhaps. The cold PDO is always a notorious threat for a core of cool
near the lakes, but other items have developed here that suggest that
we are off to a good start for that, a cool June. While it
certainly can turn around, the developing nino is not
favorable for that with a cold PDO. What happens is that this keeps
trying to push more than normal energy into the southern branch,
and with enough northern branch still around from the departing
colder signal, one sees the squeeze play on southern ridges. If one
looks closely at the ridge forecasted next week in the south, its
a ridge, but not with above normal heights. In other words, its there
because of what is going on around it, not because its there because
a major ridge position is there. The natural feedback in the
rockies as the summer heats up should pull the ridge back to
west again, and as the new affects of the neg SOI come east,
an eastern trough is liable to develop next week into the week after.
As you can see, the simplified version on the public site is really the tip of the iceberg at best. for the record, The UKMET and I are singing Cumbaya on the
Euro summer as I think much of eastern and central Europe is hot this summer, but
the winter could be alot of fun for lovers over colder and snowier weather.
Please remember that a public site as accuweather.com is, is not the same as
the complextities and the story I am weaving for our prosubscribers. For instance
you el nino neh sayers, its already here. Take a look at what has happened to the
Indian monsoon! Same as 2006 and same as all el nino years, it has crashed
in June. The past does have something to do with the future
ciao
JB

Garrett

Wow…what a flip. Just a month or so ago the west was in for a warm summer to….I swear over the past few year NOAA has had quite the warm bias in the east and south when it comes to summer…sheesh…they need to get their facts straight.