Guest Post by Steven Goddard
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta
– Noel Coward – 1931
Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II. It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole. And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year. The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.
Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England. Similar story for summer 2008 and winter 2008-2009 . Yet in fine British tradition the Met Office remains undaunted –
The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.
Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”
The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 – that was over 1,000 days ago. But you have to admire their grit and determination to get the global warming message across to the ignorant British population.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
– Attributed to Albert Einstein
Darts anyone?
Brian (14:48:06) :
I heard a version of that joke that switched things around a bit. It stated an old Indian was asked how he was always able to correctly predict the severity of the winter. Did he note the thickness of the rabbit’s fur? The abundance of the acorn crop? He replied, “Me go check size of white man’s woodpile.”
The idiots at the UK Met Office ought to be looking out their windows rather than their computer screens.
Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”
Am I the only one terribly disturbed by this comment? (Sorry, I haven’t read through any of the comments.)
He’s openly admitting that if presumed AGW slows, reverses, or even turns out to be wrong that he’ll be dissapointed!? He WANTS AGW?
Is that because he believes global warming to be a good thing, or because it’s more important for the AGW crowd to be *right* than it is for the climate to do what’s “good” for the earth (plants, animals, peoples, etc.)?
bill (17:45:58) :
Do you think a sientist would be capable of doing these measurements under these conditions. Why should they (not scientists as they admit) analyse the data. They are collecting it ONLY. Others will analyse.
Not scientists? Wow! I’m surprised.
Catlin’s page suggests it’s science what they are doing over there:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/science
The Catlin Arctic Survey combines a pioneering feat of human endurance with scientific discovery: an accurate mapping of a transect across one of Earth’s largest geophysical surface features: the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice cover.
“Do you think a sientist would be capable of doing these measurements under these conditions. Why should they (not scientists as they admit) analyse the data. They are collecting it ONLY. Others will analyse.”
Speaking as a scientist, it’s only under the most well-defined and controlled of circumstances that I ever seriously consider letting non-scientists take scientific data (except of course as a teaching exercise). This is for many reasons, but in particular to this case, because a scientist is trained by experience to recognize when they are (inadvertently or otherwise) cherry-picking their measurements. This can happen for multiple reasons – like it’s easier to drill through the flat, thin ice than it is to drill through the rough, thick ice. (In fact, taking the “easy” measurement is by far the most common cause of data bias among inexperienced scientists and non-scientists performing experiments).
But, hey, how can *I* question the motives or techniques of those brave tent-bound souls who are about to start endangering lives other than their own?
Is it possible that the spokesman was disappointed by the poor summer weather for the same reason everyone else was? Perhaps he just wanted to go to the beach with his family. No need to read any more into it than that.
Dedicated to the Met Office – “we must get a winner one day”.
“The End of the World”
From the revue that really launched the ‘satire’ boom, the 1961 Beyond The Fringe. The cast: Peter Cook, Jonathan Miller, Dudley Moore and Alan Bennett. They are seated, huddled, on the top of a mountain…
Jon : How will it be, this end of which you have spoken, Brother Enim?
Omnes: Yes, how will it be?
Peter : Well, it will be, as ’twere a mighty rending in the sky, you see, and the mountains shall sink, you see, and the valleys shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Jon : Will the veil of the temple be rent in twain?
Peter : The veil of the temple will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Alan : And will there be a mighty wind, Brother Enim?
Peter : Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by…
Dudley : And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the mountains of the earth?
Peter : No – it will not be quite as mighty as that – that is why we have come up on the mountain, you stupid nit – to be safe from it. Up here on the mountain we shall be safe – safe as houses.
Alan : And what will happen to the houses?
Peter : Well, naturally, the houses will be swept away and the tents of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the heavens and on earth – and serve them right!
Alan : And shall we be consumed?
Peter : Con..sum..éd? No, we shall not be consuméd – we shall be up on the mountain here, you see, while millions burn, having a bit of a giggle.
Jon : When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Omnes : Aye, when will it be – when will it be?
Peter : In about thirty seconds time, according to the ancient pyramidic scrolls… and my Ingersoll watch.
Jon : Shall we compose ourselves, then?
Peter : Good plan, Brother Pithy. Prepare for the End of the World! Fifteen seconds…
Alan : Have we got the tinned food?
Dudley : Yes.
Peter : Ten seconds…
Jon : And the tin-opener?
Dudley : Yes.
Peter : Five – four – three – two – one – Zero!
Omnes : (Chanting) Now is the end – Perish The World!
A pause
Peter : It was GMT, wasn’t it?
Jon : Yes.
Peter : Well, it’s not quite the conflagration I’d been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow… we must get a winner one day.
“Our researches show the recent general world cooling will continue and contrary to the claims of Global Warming and related models there will no significant El Nino or associated warming effects in 2009. “The Met Office’s recent forecast that the world in 2009 will be in the warmest 5 on record will fail, instead 2009 is likely to be similar to or colder than 2008. All their recent climate forecasts have failed and this one will too. It is high time that politicians recognised reality so I challenge the Met Office to a bet that their forecast will fail and world temperatures 2009 will be cooler than the ‘top 5’.”
~Piers Corbyn
http://www.lowefo.com/pdf/News090106.pdf
“BrianMcL (17:28:00) : Don’t scientists normally analyse their data?”
What are they comparing it too? How can they know if they are successful or not? That was my point. They don’t know right now what they’ve achieved
I say chaps, the seaweed is looking a bit dry but the crystal ball is looking clear. Right it’s time for our new forecast process, err ok chaps & chapesses, power on, check, flashing lights on, check, great background music on, check, right…. altogether now, “Eeenie meeenie minie mo, make the weather come & go, will it be hot or will it be cold, make a guess & make it be bold!!!!!!”
I’ve contacted Piers Corbyn’s weatheraction.com for a comment after I picked myself off the floor & checked myself into casualty just to make sure I hadn’e broken anything in the process. The glee & exictement with which this was spouted out over the lunchtime news was staggering, although I must say the “weather girl” who delivered this gem (& I say chaps, ay what, she was an absolute cracker, WOW, nudge nudge wink wink – I’ve just got to lay down in a darkened room now) did display a slight reticence about the accuracy, it’s all in the eyes you know! Apparently it’s all to do with those robots in the pacific according to the bbc this morning sending the right signals & that’s the basis chaps?
Just Want Truth… (16:32:18) :
“Going by history Pen Hadow isn’t one to call things off when circumstances are saying to call things off. Someone else may have to make that call, someone watching from the outside.”
It should be the pilot of the rescue aircraft that makes that call. No one else.
And leave Hadow there if he has a hissy fit!
Reasons for this forecast:
1. The Govt want Brits to book a summer holiday at home – reduce the balance of payments deficit.
2. The Govt would like foreigners to take a holiday in Britain too!
3. The Govt think that unless people think it will be hot, then they will go to France or Spain again.
4. They fail to understand that the people who holiday at home do so for only two reasons:
i. They want to.
ii. They can’t afford anything else.
So if the Govt just said: look chaps, far better all round for the economy if more of stay home this summer, more might respond.
But when did a Govt ever do that: good heavens, if you turned the masses into sentient critical people they might look a bit more closely at what the Govt DID!
And then where would we be?
Eh????
Does anyone know if there is a good weather forecast here in the UK? As a gardener, I’ve been following the BBC’s, but it’s becoming a joke. They even got the ‘live’ weather wrong last week!!! I mean, they only had to look out the window! My veg is out (pardon madam) and I don’t want to lose anything to an unpredicted frost.
I use Metcheck http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/? which seems to be much more accurate – it forecast the two nights of frost this week unlike the BBC
Eventually they’ll get one right.
1000 days without a 30°C day. Eventually it’s bound to happen.
This MET office is giving Hansen’s GISS a real run for the money on who’s the biggest joke.
People want to know how to do short term weather forecasting in the UK. Here is how. Look at the Met Office rainfall radar chart and run the movie. Then make your own commonsense prediction based on where the rain is going. If you make your forecasts in the morning for the coming day, you’ll be right 90% of the time if you confine your forecast to rain/not rain.
The Met Office will quite often be found to issue a forecast at 7am, which tells you that where you are living will be dry or wet at 8am, and when you look out the window, you’ll find its just the opposite. As for forecasts 5 days out, they will change several times before you get there.
I can forecast stock prices like this too. I say on Monday that GM will rise to 6 on Friday. Monday I forecast 4. Tuesday 5, Thursday 6. Friday it is 7 and I proclaim success. I was real close!
And we are paying for this!
rephelan,
I don’t know why you are questioning Flanagan’s integrity. The lower plot of figure 6 in the Egan and Mullin paper shows precisely what he states:
“…people tend to belief in global warming as a function of their local temperature. In cold and temperate places, those supporting global waming are the ones with the highest level of education, whose opinion is relatively constant whatever the local temperatures.”
If you actually look past the headlines, the Met Office have a pretty good chance of being right. Look at the 2 key statements
1. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average
The average UK summer temperature for 1971-2000 is 14.1 deg C. Only 2 summers out of the last 20 have failed to exceed that figure – some quite significantly – so they’re almost certain to get the temperature bit right.
2. and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.
Again this has a better than even chance of being correct. It’s unlikely we’ll get the continuous weather fronts that plagued the UK in the past 2 years, so they’re probably not going to be far wrong here.
I also agree with an earlier poster that this may have been spun in a way so as to appeal to holidaymakers to stay in the UK.
Have the MET and the licensed media ever been right with their newish long range forecasts?
Roll on the day when all publicliy funded data collectors are forced to allow the paying public to see it, for free. It would be the most effective oversight.
Britannic no-see-um (15:14:48) :
Ash before oak, in for a soak
Oak before ash, only a splash
But even yet, this old countyfolk saying has been pressed into into service by AGW environmentalism. See our friend Charles Clover in
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3343188/Ash-no-longer-a-contender-to-leaf-before-oak.html
I’ve got oak and ash all around and right now they’re both bursting out.
Brittanic The Ash was out before the oak by I think three weeks. Therefore we are in for a splash?
This is the sort of thing we have to contend with in the UK, whose authorities are convinced we are heading rapidly for a mediterranean climate. All the gardening programmes for years have been telling us to take up our traditional plants and change them for drought tolerant and heat resistant ones as we head for hotter and drier summers. Some of these in my garden were swept away by the summer rain whilst others have succumbed to the cold. But they must be right, so as it is the 1st of May I will be swapping my thick sweater for a thinner one.
The full 20 minute version of ‘Changing Climate, Changing Business’ is available to watch on South West Tourism’s website at: http://www.swtourism.org.uk/our-strategic-work/sustainability-work/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/. A 6 minute, summary version can also be viewed at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3IOGy8WMGg
For more information about climate change impacts and adaptation in the South West, visit: http://www.oursouthwest.com/climate/ or for tourism-related information and support visit http://www.swtourism.org.uk/.
Tonyb
This is a fascinating gamble by the Met Office. With the tropical Atlantic the coldest since 1994, and the north Atlantic ice extent the highest for 1 May in at least 7 years, the downside to their gamble is considerable as another unforeseen shift in weather patterns combined with the cool sea temperatures could produce a summer even cooler than the last 2 years. The odds do appear to favour the MetO, but like I say there is a real chance it could prove spectacularly wrong.
The emphasis on particular years as “hottest on record” and “ten of the hottest years have been in the last whatever” is quite silly.
If the situation were reversed to promote global cooling, a press release in 1698 for example, could have said “eight of the coldest years have occurred in the last 15 years”.
Bethany, Ron de Haan, I agree.
For a good insight into the continuing quest for global governance by the UN see this: http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/NWO/Global_Governance_1.htm
I’m sure it will go someting like this…..
The UK MET office will predict above average hot summers year in, year out. Eventually when such a summer occurs they will then claim the world is near tipping point of runaway AGW and the media will run the headline stories.
It’s all very predictable !
Hit the wrong button … so I don’t know if my earlier incomplete post went through. Here is the full Monty.
Agree with those who question the counting of spots that only can be seen with modern telescopes generally placed on mountains. Europe, where most of the 17-19th century telescopes were located, is not noted for its continuous clear sunny days.
The best technical presentation I’ve come across of historical sunspots, and how sunspots are measured, with all the variations around the measurements and calculations is the article:
Dances with Wolf’s: A Short History of Sunspot Indices
Contributed by Carl E. Feehrer (FEEC)
Revised August 2000
http://www.aavso.org/observing/programs/solar/dances.shtm
He also discusses the benefits and problems with the 4 major indices:
Wolf
(R) Zurich
(Rz) International
(Ri) American (Ra)
Best article on this subject that I’ve come across.
Since sunspots are crude surrogates for solar activity, modern solar instruments that measure total solar irradiance, mass ejections, and all other electromagnetic activities will, over extended time, replace this highly subjective measurement.
Future generations will be puzzled with our intense divination of them for our use predictions as we are with the Romans divination and prophecy using flights of birds (augary).