Guest Post by Steven Goddard
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta
– Noel Coward – 1931
Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II. It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole. And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year. The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.
Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England. Similar story for summer 2008 and winter 2008-2009 . Yet in fine British tradition the Met Office remains undaunted –
The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.
Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”
The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 – that was over 1,000 days ago. But you have to admire their grit and determination to get the global warming message across to the ignorant British population.
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
– Attributed to Albert Einstein
Darts anyone?
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
In response to CodeTech (12:16:47) : “They can’t be basing their prediction on anything other than hope.”
I think its much more interesting than that. The Hadley Center/Met Office is one of the few meterological organizations that uses the Global Circulation Models (the ones used to predict global warming) and actually tries to make long range weather forecasts with them. In essence, they are showing the world the robustness of their predictions. I actually prefer this to simulations 100 years on that no one will be around to prove or disprove. It would be interesting to look at the Met Office predictions and compare these with people who focus more on the set up in the oceans for the coming season.
Hopeforwarming: These were two different aircraft on two different missions.
Note the Catliners will not be resupplied until Saturday.
One of the tribe asked the Indian chief,
“Is it going to be a hard winter?”
The chief said,
“Go collect firewood and I’ll consult the stars tonight and tell you.”
Being new to the job and a 21st century type of guy the chief really hadn’t a clue about the old ways, so the next day he phoned the local ranger station. They told him, Yes it looks bad, so he told his tribe to collect more fire wood every day for a week and he phoned again to see if there were any more predictions. Once again the ranger told him it looks like its going to be a really long, cold, bad winter so the chief gathered the tribe and told them they must go and collect as much firewood as possible
A few days later he phoned again and asked the same question only to be told that the weather for winter looks really terrible and it will last a really long time.
He asked the ranger how he could make such a prediction and what was it based on.
The ranger replied, “It’s the Indians. They’re gathering fire wood like crazy !!”
10,48…… 2007
10,5 ……..1989
10,5 ……..2003
10,52…… 1995
10,53…… 1997
10,6 ……..2002
10,62…….1949
10,63…… 1990
10,63…… 1999
10,82…… 2006
10 warmest years uk years from the source given above (since 1659)
http://www.climate4you.com/CentralEnglandTemperatureSince1659.htm
(the link to the data is at the bottom. well, if it isn t global warming, the UK did surely warm….)
Outer catastrophes will not ever resolve inner incapacities
The UK Met Office have made some changes to reach the conclusion about this year’s UK weather forecast.
They have a new piece of seaweed, bigger than the last bit. The string is also longer and recycled.
They now have a penny with COLD on one side and HOT on the other.
The master stroke is helping to save the Planet by not switching on their computer…………..
Anyone who spent the summer of 2007 in the UK knows this to be true.
There were almost no warm days that summer, with daytime temperatures well below normal. The humidity kept nighttime temperatures up, which allowed the Met Office statisticians the opportunity to pretend they were saving face.
I wish all these climate prognosticators would put their predictions on the commodities market.
We could then promptly go short on them and make a bundle.
Indeed, I read this on a new website earlier and my only thought was, “good luck with that”. There’s nothing quite like setting yourself up to be shot down is there?
Lest we forget, global temperatures in 2007 plummeted by nearly 0.5C – wiping out many decades of warming.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2007/to:2008
Ash before oak, in for a soak
Oak before ash, only a splash
But even yet, this old countyfolk saying has been pressed into into service by AGW environmentalism. See our friend Charles Clover in
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3343188/Ash-no-longer-a-contender-to-leaf-before-oak.html
I’ve got oak and ash all around and right now they’re both bursting out.
If anyone listened to the BBC 9 O’Clock News on YouTube, which was about 12 Hours after the Storm Hit, the Newsreader said “The Storm is now approaching the Arctic Circle” LOL!
I know this posting is about the UK Met Office and Steven makes a skilled connection between the predictions and the British character but what has to be said is the following.
1. It is not only the UK MET OFFICE that is spreading warmist predictions.
2. Warmist predictions are spread by all National Meteorological Organizations world wide.
3. We have the UN IPCC pushing the AGW scam but it is also the World Meteorological
Organization.
4. Read about their organization structure here: http://www.wmo.ch/pages/about/wmo_structure_en.html
They translate climate policies and tell the National Weather Organizations which tune they must whistle.
The focus is now directed at the UK Met Office, but for the same money you could point your focus to the KNMI (Royal Dutch Met Office) to come up with a comparable story.
It would be a good thing if people really understand what is going on and that all the arrows point to the United Nations as the spider in the web.
“jack mosevich (14:45:35) :
Hopeforwarming: These were two different aircraft on two different missions”
It has to be the same aircraft on a different mission – see below for the mission. Obviously the weather is too rough for the Twin Otter to operate and I am guessing the the DC3 is too big to land for a resupply drop.
“The custom-designed aircraft to be used during the mission, described by Verhoef as the only one of its kind in North America, can accommodate large banks of surveying equipment, and can complete tricky takeoffs and landings in rugged Arctic conditions.
The plane is owned by Kenn Borek Air Ltd., a Calgary-based charter service specializing in Arctic and Antarctic flights”
http://www.canada.com/Danish+Canadian+scientists+Arctic+Ocean/1398916/story.html
>>> Britain keeps good weather records:
>>> http://www.climate4you.com/CentralEnglandTemperatureSince1659.htm
Squinting slightly, I make that a 1 degree rise in temperature since 1650. Roughly in line with the growth of city island temperatures, I would say.
.
ralph,
Central England has become essentially one big city, or at least it seems that way when driving around Birmingham at rush hour.
My forecast for the summer is “becoming warmer with more daylight” followed by my winter forecast of “colder and darker earlier”.
Can I have a supercomputer?
But for the real enthousiasm you have to go to the Yorkshire fire brigade. Last year they put out a press release yet again emphasizing that because of you know what we could expect droughts and the danger of wild fires that comes with them, all very bad for the local wild animal population.
The press release was on about the wettest day of this Century, even soaking for Yorkshire standards.
You have to admire that spirit!
“Flanagan (12:53:18) : The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post.”
They were wrong. There. It’s been discussed.
“Weather Forecast in Anglican Chant”
Spike Milligan summary : winds light to variable.
The Catlin thing isn’t funny any more. Why don’t they just admit they were wrong/misguided/unlucky/completely vindicated and come back home?
My forecast there is that if something bad happens then it won’t be the mission planners to blame. My opinion is that they need to take responsibility now and call the whole thing off before anyone gets more hurt than they are already.
On a lighter note, where could anyone hide beef stew? Bemused minds want to know!
flanagan / Adam Gallon
Sorry to disappoint both you guys but if you go to http://hadobs.metoffice.com//hadcet/cetml1659on.dat, you’ll find that 2007 doesn’t even figure in the top ten! And since the Met Office forecast that the summer of 07 was going to be the warmest on record they sure as hell weren’t going to mention that because JN/JL/AUG that year averaged out at 180th out of 350 with a temp of 15.2 on a par with the year that Nelson won at Trafalgar and the year the Yanks started getting uppity and decided to go off on their own!
Face it, flanagan. You’re losing this one!
“…On the other hand the Met Office long range forecasts for summer 08, summer 09 and winter 08-09 were dismal failures and disarmed you, the emergency services and the public at great human and financial cost…. ”
~ Piers Corbyn
ref :
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=28&c=1
Seem to recall that for the winter of 2008-2009 forecast, the Met office made an explicit upward adjustment, to reflect their estimate of the impact of global warming. Does the new forecast also include an upward adjustment for global warming? If so, would it be rude to request that the Met provide two forecasts, one that excludes any arbitrary upward adjustment for global warming, and the other that explicitly does? The unadjusted forecast could be a reasonable one.
Just Want Truth… (16:01:36) :
TYPO
“forecasts for summer 08, summer 09”
rather
“forecasts for summer 07, summer 08”