The Met Office UK summer forecast – Mad Dogs and Englishmen

Guest Post by Steven Goddard

The Third Little Show

Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta

– Noel Coward – 1931

Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II.  It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole.   And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year.  The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK.

Instead it turned out to be a cool summer and the rainiest on record in England.  Similar story for summer 2008 and winter 2008-2009 .  Yet in fine British tradition the Met Office remains undaunted

The coming summer is ‘odds on for a barbecue summer’, according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: “After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year.”

The last 30C day in London was July 26, 2006 – that was over 1,000 days ago.  But you have to admire their grit and determination to get the global warming message across to the ignorant British population.

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

– Attributed to Albert Einstein

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/met_office_forecast_computer-520.jpg

Darts anyone?

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April 30, 2009 12:28 pm

So, the last two summers in Britain were influenced by weather, but if it’s really hot this year, the influence is climate.
Do I have this mangled to the right degree?

Dell Hunt, Michigan
April 30, 2009 12:30 pm

If you look at the past 2 years weather, the further away from the tropics (except for the mysterious supposed Trans Siberian Heatwave), the overall cooler it has been.
Whats interesting, is that is exactly what happened during the Maunder and Dalton minimums.

Bethany
April 30, 2009 12:33 pm

I am curious if there are any lawyers out there who could answer whether or not we could bring a “False Claims Act” suit against those who are pushing for this C02 legislation which will cost the government and in turn us trillions of dollars? Could we not bring it around to convince some that it will save the government money? I know I am reaching, but we need something here as we are losing this battle for our free country and the world.
People at these agencies are making these false claims based on an agenda (conspiracy) that will do different things based on how you see the scenario.
“Conspiracy” A secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act.
A plot to carry out some harmful or illegal act (especially a political plot).
A group of conspirators banded together to achieve some harmful or illegal purpose.
I am also really tired about people saying that it isn’t a conspiracy and you are paranoid, well how does everyone think they (powers that be) are getting away with;
1. The destruction of the financial markets and in turn the eventual curbing of the free market….if that has ever been the case since the 20’s.
2. The destruction of our freedom and our ability to create products and wealth by unfair taxation and regulation.
3. insert other possible scenarios here i.e. nationalized healthcare which is a misnomer, just look at how our system has helped people so far., mandatory vaccinations, taxing you extra for extra children because of their carbon footprint etc. etc.
The problem with people not seeing the corruption and conspiracy is that we are conditioned to think anyone with a conspiracy theory is a kook, one who wears a tin foil hat and shouts about area 51 on the street corner. We cannot possibly imagine that there is somthing this sinister and corrupt going on and to even imagine it is too disturbing so we side with, oh that is silly and “you American’s and your conspiracy theories” (which is a quote I heard last week).
We need a separation of government and industry in the biggest of ways. How are we going to do this? Is it too late?

April 30, 2009 12:34 pm

The British have always been optimistic about having a good summer and to ensure we don’t forget the very occasional one that comes along we keep very good records.
http://www.climate4you.com/CentralEnglandTemperatureSince1659.htm
Unfortunately our summers are not showing much signs of getting warmer, with June actually cooler on average since 1659
Of our twenty warmest summers 8 occured in the 18th century, 4 in the 19th, 4 in the 20th with 2 so far in the 21st.
Winters are getting warmer (not surprising as our figures back to 1659 include the Little Ice age) but this was because the severe cold in the LIA dragged down overall mean temperatures. These LIA winters are the only reason why overall the mean temperatures have consequently risen fractionally in 350 years of record keeping-the longest in the world. (see the link)
However, even the warm winters these days aren’t what they used to be. Our warmest three remain 1733 1868 and 1833. Whilst we associate Charles Dickens with snow, ironically he lived through some of the warmest winters on record and wrote A Christmas Carol during a heat wave to stave off bankruptcy.
A bit worrying really to think that temperatures have only recovered fractionally over the LIA values. Perhaps this current period is only a short respite from ther LIA?
Tonyb

jack mosevich
April 30, 2009 12:36 pm

Paul James: That is so hilarious. Its too bad we cannot do a similar pre- and post- 50-years-from -now interview with Hansen

April 30, 2009 12:36 pm

After years of good weather and good harvest of wheat and of production of wine in the beginning of the 14 century, suddenly the summers in the British Isles started to rain away and the temperature dropped.
The world entered the Wolf minimum and the Great Famine hit Britain.
A couple of decades later the plague arrived.
Maybe there are parallels today.

Alexej Buergin
April 30, 2009 12:38 pm

Americans just do not understand summer in the UK.
I experienced the whole summer of 1992; it was a Wednesday in July between 2:30 pm and 3:30 pm, when the sun broke through the clouds.

Scott
April 30, 2009 12:38 pm

@astronmr20,
Eventually someone… or their boss.. or their boss, will get tired of being embarrassed. Nothing heads the same direction ad infinitum.

Ray
April 30, 2009 12:45 pm

If they don’t change their basic assumptions and keep their global warming model equation in, even their super-dupper computer will give [self-snip] predictions.

jack mosevich
April 30, 2009 12:51 pm

OT- the Catlin team re-supply has been postponed for another day. This just updated a few minutes ago:
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/latestfromtheice

Flanagan
April 30, 2009 12:53 pm

The met predicted 2007 to be the warmest year ever, and what was the result? It’s not discussed in the post.

Wansbeck
April 30, 2009 1:06 pm

Poor Old Michael Fish. He actually got the forecast substantially correct even advising south coast viewers to ‘batten down the hatches’ but that part never gets shown.
Still, the Met Office did get a new supercomputer out of it that time.
Still trying?

April 30, 2009 1:07 pm

I know it’s forbidden to talk about H1N1 in WUWT, but this post is related with the main topic.
Well… Insanity is a cosmopolitan disease. As you should know, my country is affected by an outbreak of A-H1N1 influenza. Yesterday, a guy who supposedly is a “great scientist and infectious diseases specialist” tried to relate the outbreak with global warming. The editorial which appeared in most important national newspapers said:
“The great scientist and infectious diseases specialist, Fidel Herrera by name, explained overwhelmingly and unobjectionably that the outbreak of swine influenza occurred at Perote… …was due to the aggressive climate changes happened in the State during the last years…” (Milenio. 30 April 2009. Page 4).
One more for adding to the insane list of 1000 ominous effects caused by global warming.

Paul James
April 30, 2009 1:07 pm

Jack Mosevich –
The Michael Fish non-Hurricane forecast is a classic in the UK. Poor old Michael never lived it down and to be fair to him he took the laughter at his expense extremely well. That he came back to TV and did the 20th anniversary forecast speaks well for his sense of humor.
He carried on forecasting the weather on the BBC for many years only retiring in the last few. In those days the BBC’s weather forecasters were Met Office employees, I am not sure if that’s still the case.

Richard Patton
April 30, 2009 1:10 pm

Alexej Buergi: That’s like our jokes in Oregon: “Last summer Oregonians saw a UFO-the sun.” “Oregonians don’t tan-they rust.” “Last year 300 Oregonians fell off their bicycles-and drowned.”

Tim Channon
April 30, 2009 1:15 pm

A treat for Mr Watts.
Google have just started to add some street view data to their service in the UK. To my great surprise, a stroke of luck, you can now see a standard Met Office weather station, if a minor one.
So far as I know _not_ used for climatic work.
This particular station is at a west London airfield which goes back to WW2 but today is used for government flights.
The Met Station was in the standard RAF position next to the control tower.
It was automated and moved. That is not a minor road even if it looks small, it is one of the primary routes into London and becomes the M40 motorway.
I will give just the lat/long, copy into Google Earth. You will see the Street View icons, access as desired.
51.548707° -0.416954°

Ray
April 30, 2009 1:16 pm

jack mosevich (12:51:14) :
This is hillarious… they also wrote:
“Their spirits were lifted briefly today when they heard the distant engines of a DC3 aircraft overhead. They thought their minds were playing tricks on them, but sure enough a DC3 did indeed fly within 13 miles of their camp. However, it was part of a Danish research expedition and not the Twin Otter they were hoping for.”
Isn’t that the same plane that are measuring the ice thickness while on-board a nicely heated environment? But I though the experiment was over.

Mike Nicholson
April 30, 2009 1:18 pm

I seem to recall that in the summer/autumn period last year, that the same Met Office was forecasting a warm,if not “the warmest” winter on record ! Today should have been torrential rain in our area according to the met forecast in the morning. All we got was a slight drizzle.
Stick to “sunshine and showers” !

Ray
April 30, 2009 1:22 pm

Nasif Nahle (13:07:01) :
I am sure Gore must have sent a filming crew To Mexico to be certain to include this for the upcoming Incovenient Truth 2: The sequal.
http://www.cinematical.com/2007/05/24/davis-guggenheim-in-talks-for-inconvenient-truth-2/

stephen richards
April 30, 2009 1:23 pm

Sorry but you have all missed the point. When the UK met office moved to Exeter a yaer or two back it was to be nearer the sea. You see, there is no seaweed in London or pine cones. It wasn’t a super computer they took with them to Exeter, they didn’t need to. They had tons of seaweed and pine cones and all the other weather forecasting tools they would need. Et voilà, seaweed dry drought is nigh, cone closed we will be frozed. Told you!!

jack mosevich
April 30, 2009 1:28 pm

Actually this all reminds me of the economist joke: a certain economist predicted 7 of the past 3 recessions

M White
April 30, 2009 1:35 pm

The Full Story So Far
Summer forecast 2009
Tue 31 Mar 2009
Temperature
For the UK and much of Western Europe temperatures are likely to be near average
Rainfall
At this stage forecast signals are too weak to provide an outlook for summer rainfall.
Thursday 30 Mar 2009
Temperature
For the UK and much of Europe temperatures are likely to be above average.
Rainfall
For the UK and much of northern Europe rainfall is likely to be near or below average. A repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.
Average or below-average rainfall is also likely over Eastern Europe

Ken Hall
April 30, 2009 1:37 pm

O/T but I am so sick of all of this climate alarmism and the statutes and taxes that are flowing from it, that I am seriously looking into lawful rebellion. This is when one casts off the false legal fiction of their “person” and lives as a free man on the land according to common law.
These statutes are going to increasingly remove our freedoms and rights until we are little more than serfs on the free soil.
One must make various lawful declarations to be signed by a notary and held by a court that declare one’s lawful understandings and commitments. Unchallenged these declarations are lawful documents which you can enforce in law against any act or statute.
One must note the difference between a law and a statute. Common law flows from Natural Law being created by God, under which ALL men are equal before the law and all men are free. That all free men declare that they shall act in peace and never cause harm, injury or loss. (in law the term ‘man’ includes woman).
Whereas a statute is a rule of society that only has the force of law with the consent of the governed. It is created by a court (Parliament) written by lawyers and only applies under admiralty law which is Law of the seas, or commercial contract law. Therefore a statute is basically a contract. We can refuse to grant consent, LAWFULLY. A statute is NOT a law, until the person consents to it binding upon them and therefore by that action consenting to act as if it is a law. Why do you think that they call statutes, ACTS! Consent is assumed in law by your inaction too. One must actively and lawfully deny consent for the act to be void upon your flesh and blood human being.
As the legal maxim states: Consensus Facit Legem : Consent makes the law.
That means that if we are to declare ourselves lawfully as free men on the land, we need not obey their statutes. The statutes can only apply to a legal person, which is separate and distinct from a flesh and blood man. A person in legal terms is a piece of paper that represents the human being. It is your birth certificate.
For more information see tpuc.org

Ed Scott
April 30, 2009 1:41 pm

Happy Earth Day
25 Global Warming Debunking Videos Al Gore Doesn’t Want You To See
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/25-anti-global-warming-videos-al-gore-does-not-want-you-to-see

kim
April 30, 2009 1:42 pm

Special for Erl Happ:
The sun is very sultry and we must avoid its ultry-violet rays.
H/t NC
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