While I have reservations about the GISS dataset due to the many adjustments it endures, the GISS global temperature anomaly data for March 2009 has been published.
The March 2009 global anomaly is 0.47 °C, making it the coldest March since the year 2000.
As Luboš Motl points out:
That is also colder than March 1990 and 1998, That puts March 2009 out of the “top ten”. Also, the March 2009 global mean temperature differed by 0.03 °C only from the March 1981 figure – from a month when the ENSO/ONI index was pretty much equal to the current value. This cherry-picked monthly comparison would suggest that there may have been 0.03 °C of warming in 30 years.
Another blogger, Lucia plotted long term GISS trends and got some interesting results.
- 20 year (240 month) trends with end points going back in time and
- Trends starting on Jan 1979 and ending “N” months ago. So, N=0 ends in March 09, N=1 ends in February 09 and so on.
Here they are:
Figure 1: GISSTemp longish trends.
She notes:
- The trend computed from 1979 to now is higher than the trend computed from 1979 to 2001. (This fact is true as can be seen by comparing the trend represented red square that intersects the yellow line indicating Jan 2001 to the red square representing a trend ending in March 2009.)
- The 20 year trend ending with the month of Dec 2000 is higher than the 20 year trend computed now. (This is a true fact, as seen by comparing the blue diamond intersecting the yellow line to the blue diamond ending representing the trend ending in March 2009.)
- Both facts are supposed to convince us that global warming neither stalled nor ended in 2001.
Well…. I’ve haven’t claimed global warming stopped or stalled in 2001. (In any case I’m not sure precisely what those terms are supposed to mean. If all they mean is temperature trends are down since 2001…. well, they are! If they mean that GHG’s don’t tend to cause warming and warming won’t resume… Well, the data don’t mean that.)
While GISS went up a tiny bit, from 0.41 in February 09 to 0.47 °C in March 09, you could figure that .06 °C to be essentially unchanged month to month and part of the “noise”. The lack of any real increase in trends since 2001 is the most interesting part of the GISS story.
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Please see http://www.iberica2000.org/Es/Articulo.asp?Id=3774
The plot of Surface Temperature ST (Hadcrut3 Global anom) versus Lower Troposphere Temperature LT (UAH Global anom) shows a gradually increasing deviation of ST of ~0.2C above LT since 1979.
Probably, all of this 0.2C can be ascribed to ST measurement warming bias.
Absent the ST warming bias, there is no significant global warming since 1940.
I think both GISS and Hadley ST’s are misleading and exhibit significant warming biases that render them practically useless as a basis to infer actual global warming.
The satellite-based LT temperature, while not perfect, is a far superior database for such a purpose, in my opinion.
Ozzie John (01:16:10) :
That’s excellent….. I heard Prof. Bob Carter talking on the ABC this arvo…. He was telling it straight too.
Said that Economists like Stern are not competent to be doing Climate science…… Bob doesn’t bandy words that’s fer sure.
…and of course there is the Senate enquiry into the Emissions Trading Scheme(ETS) that the Liberal Party(Australia’s conservatives) and the Greens (strange bedfellows indeed) have initiated to look into the Labor Party’s ill founded Carbon policy.
They are taking petitions from both sides of the Debate(yep we Aussies have finally got our opposition party to back a debate on AGW over 8000 letters so far)…. The Greens are screaming blue murder that the EMS is too low and want even more draconian levels and prices on CO2. While the Libs are contending that it will devastate the economy, send investment overseas, won’t work and will cost jobs.
…. anyway. Game on.
Record cold in the arctic Svalbard,
April 1 -26 C, new low record for April
April 4 -24 C, new low record for April
April 5 -25 C, new low record for April
April 6 -27 C, new low record for April
And cold temperatures are continuing.
Steinar Midtskogen, could you confirm the above numbers?
Maybe these temperatures around Svalbard are one reason for the Arctic ice extend reaching normal levels.
GISS anomaly lower than UAH – Again!
The GISS March anomaly relative to the 1979-97 base period is again lower than the UAH anomaly. GISS anomaly is +0.18 while UAH is +021. In February GISS was +0.15 while UAH was +0.36. See below for GISS 1979-97 anomaly map (I hope it works)
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2009&month_last=03&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=03&year1=2009&year2=2009&base1=1979&base2=1997&radius=1200&pol=reg
So to all those who think UH, bad siting, deliberate fudging etc are inflating the GISS anomalies – well UAH appear to the same issues.
Previous post should read “UAH appear to have the same issues”.
Incidentally does anyone have a link to UAH anomaly maps.
You have got to be kidding me. 0.47C above normal at the end of a La Nina and with a severe protracted solar minimum and we are still pretending it’s not “warming”.
Who’s warming? It was warmer in the 1930’s than it is now. The 1930’s were sandwiched between the icy teens, 20’s and 40’s. The Modern Warming Period is over. Next one is likely to come around in, oh, say 1,000 years.
The H&G ThermoClimactic Panic Control Panel has some explaining to do.
Exactly why are thier posteriors frozen to their heated chairs?
Batteries not included?
if the east coast us march anomoly is up why did i have to have my heat on all month ( and into april) when i normally have it turned off by this time.
Allan,
The UAH LT data is plotted here:
http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/6856/uah0309.png
and shows a warming trend of 0.13 degC/decade, or 0.4 degC over the period of the data.
RSS shows even a greater upwards trend of 0.15 degC/decade, with or without the 1998 Super El Niño:
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/32/rssdata.png
So your preferred datasets rather refute your assertion of no warming.
So to all those who think UH, bad siting, deliberate fudging etc are inflating the GISS anomalies – well UAH appear to have the same issues.
John,
I’ve asked about this before, and from what I understand UAH does not adjust for UHI. So, if UHI affects the UAH readings, it should be higher than GISS.
“Tom P (01:58:39) : As I noted elsewhere, all of the global temperature datasets (UAH, RSS, HadCRUT, GISS) show a warming trend”
Without using biased methods would you substantiate this?
Any record that uses the fudged data of the USHCN to determine it’s trend is indeed exactly that. We have no reason to believe records from the rest of the world between 1880 and 1980 are any better, we do have a lot of evidence that these “adjusted” data sets are wildly biased.
The “trend” in data that does not use these “corrections” is a lot less convincing. Likewise the balloon and satellite record do not show anything like long term massive warming. Take out the crummy corrections take out the recovery from the little ice age and you haven’t got enough of a warming signal for anyone to be excited about it.
You sure as heck don’t have any data to suggest massive warming this century.
Also your response to Allan
Take out the super el nino of 1998 and what happens to that trend. Now take out the half a degree or so of bias created by standardizing satellite readings vs ground readings known to be too high. Now what is the trend like?
We have more snow here in Southern Montana today. I hear Al Gore’s name used in vain a lot.
Larry Sheldon,
you say “I deny that man has much to do with the warming and has no meaningful control over it“?
I was with you until that point 🙂
(sorry, I couldn’t resist having fun with it. All fun aside, I concur!)
1. Perry Debell [01:55:28] … THAT spokeswoman …(Penny again???) is at least
RELATIVIZING a little…
Temperature readings at 19.0C or more in March and 20 first days of April
at Heathrow:
1949-03-26….. 19.6C
1949-04-15….. 23.5C
1949-04-16….. 27.4C
1949-04-17….. 23.5C
1949-04-18….. 19.6C
1952-04-09….. 20.2C
1952-04-13….. 19.6C
1952-04-14….. 20.7C
1952-04-16….. 20.2C
1952-04-17….. 21.8C
1952-04-18….. 22.4C
1952-04-19….. 23.5C
1955-04-11….. 19.1C
1957-04-05….. 19.6C
1959-1972 TU TIEMPO (SOURCE) HAS NO VALUES…
1974-04-04….. 19.0C
1974-04-07….. 19.0C
1974-04-08….. 19.0C
1974-04-10….. 20.0C
1976-04-18….. 20.0C
1980-04-13….. 20.0C
1980-04-14….. 21.0C
1980-04-15….. 21.0C
1980-04-16….. 19.0C
1981-04-09….. 20.0C
……………AND SO IT GOES…… I realize by now it’s easier to show the years
the Heat DID NOT hit Heathrow before April 21…
1986, 1989….[1990 IS AN OUTLIER…March 17 already 22.0C AND the day after
21.1C …Warmest ever spring in W Europe, here in Stockholm area, lakes
could be enjoyed at 18-19C in late April… ]
1992, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008 … BUT Nota Bene: The last
20 years of increasing UHI at Heathrow much more air traffic etc the max
temps in March and April are mostly around 20C…Exception 2003: 26C April 16…Coincidentally 54 years after 27.4C in 1949, on the day…
2. Jari (03:18:06)
Same source , Tu Tiempo, tells us those readings are at least almost April records…What Station?? Ny Ålesund AP?? Different?? Day record events??
2003 was a tenth or so colder, -25.8C… AND then came the summer heatwaves
down in S and central Europe…
Anthony,
Okay, I’m looking at the chart with Celsius divided into thousands and what I want to know, since you are a meteorologist AND you sell instruments, is just how accurate are the instruments?
My reason for asking is in another blog a while back a fellow who claimed to calibrate temperature instruments said they were only accurate to within +/- 3 degrees.
What is the truth?
REPLY: The mercury thermometers used in Stevenson Screens are accurate to 0.1 degree F in the USA, but the observer rounds to the nearest whole digit, thus 57.6 degrees becomes 58 degrees when recorded in the B91 logbook sent to the National Climatic Data Center. Ditto for the new MMTS electronic instruments. – Anthony
If the warmers are waiting for the Sun to wake up and warm us up to proper CO2 levels, they are just as mistaken as the coolers who, based on a quiet Sun, are waiting for the ice age to cometh…
Perry Debell (01:55:28) –
So we are going to have a “typical British summer” are we? Does anyone know what that means?
When I was a child we were always told that a typical British summer consisted of 3 hot days followed by a thunderstorm. Does this help?
By the way, we appear to be having a typical British spring. Some warmth, some ground frosts and some rain. Nothing happening here, move along.
Wondering Aloud,
“Crummy corrections” – again, take this up with Roy Spencer, or better still why don’t you come back with a scientific analysis of why they are “crummy”?
Saying they give the “wrong” answer is obviously not sufficient.
Like the mountain climber said after he fell into the crevasse, not to worry, I know I’ll reach the summit because the trend is still up.
Steve M. (05:45:14) :
John,
I’ve asked about this before, and from what I understand UAH does not adjust for UHI. So, if UHI affects the UAH readings, it should be higher than GISS.
Steve
UAH should not be affected by siting problems or urban heat since the measurements are taken by orbiting satellites. The argument on this blog (and others) is that GISS is affected by urban heat and other factors. Many posters claim that these factors are artificially inflating the GISS temperatures. While I accept there may be a slight UH effect (particularly compared to ~1900) I don’t believe it is significant over the past ~30 years.
The fact that GISS anomalies are no higher, and are sometimes lower, than UAH anomalies when compared over the same time period (1979-1997) suggests that I might possibly (not certainly) be right.
It’s actually warmer in Northern Europe and colder in Southern Europe.
The Climate is Up and Down…
Wondering Aloud (08:08:33) :
Take out the super el nino of 1998 and what happens to that trend.
Not a lot.
Now take out the half a degree or so of bias created by standardizing satellite readings vs ground readings known to be too high. Now what is the trend like?
What does “standardizing satellite readings vs ground readings” mean exactly? I think you’re just making it up.
>>There are some strange hotspots in the GISS March
>>2009 (250 km radius) map.
>>Eastern Siberia as high as +7.9C
>>Aral Sea region as high as +6.3C
>>Svalbaard Island +4.7C
You have to understand the politics here.
The cold war still rubbles on. Russia wants to put a spanner in the US economy, by getting the US to sign up to Kyoto – thus hobbling US industry with extra costs and limitations (while Russia carries on falsifying the data).
The best way to do this is to convince everyone that Global Warming is real, by inflating all the Russian temperature readings – hence the huge temperature anomalies coming out of Russia.
Don’t believe me? You only have to watch the Eurovision Song Contest to see what happens over there. Britain is the odd one out in this huge competition, because we vote for the best song. (Mad Brits, who play by the rules of cricket).
The Baltic states vote for Russia, because otherwise the Russians will send another computer virus attack on them.
Ukraine votes for Russia, in case Russia stops their gas again next winter.
Poland votes for Germany, because they buy all their agricultural products.
Greece votes for Macedonia (and vice verse), because they want them to be a part of Greece.
Serbia votes for Russia, because they helped Serbia against the American invasion.
Georgia votes for Russia, or the tanks will be back next year.
Israel votes for Turkey, because they are their only cheap holiday destination (don’t ask me why Israel is in a Euro song contest).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-454564/Eurovision-Cold-War-Eastern-Bloc-ganging-warns-Wogan.html
You get the idea. There is no ‘real science’ in the East, just as there is no ‘real song competition’. It has always been a matter of ‘what will the result do to help us’.
.