While I have reservations about the GISS dataset due to the many adjustments it endures, the GISS global temperature anomaly data for March 2009 has been published.
The March 2009 global anomaly is 0.47 °C, making it the coldest March since the year 2000.
As Luboš Motl points out:
That is also colder than March 1990 and 1998, That puts March 2009 out of the “top ten”. Also, the March 2009 global mean temperature differed by 0.03 °C only from the March 1981 figure – from a month when the ENSO/ONI index was pretty much equal to the current value. This cherry-picked monthly comparison would suggest that there may have been 0.03 °C of warming in 30 years.
Another blogger, Lucia plotted long term GISS trends and got some interesting results.
- 20 year (240 month) trends with end points going back in time and
- Trends starting on Jan 1979 and ending “N” months ago. So, N=0 ends in March 09, N=1 ends in February 09 and so on.
Here they are:
Figure 1: GISSTemp longish trends.
She notes:
- The trend computed from 1979 to now is higher than the trend computed from 1979 to 2001. (This fact is true as can be seen by comparing the trend represented red square that intersects the yellow line indicating Jan 2001 to the red square representing a trend ending in March 2009.)
- The 20 year trend ending with the month of Dec 2000 is higher than the 20 year trend computed now. (This is a true fact, as seen by comparing the blue diamond intersecting the yellow line to the blue diamond ending representing the trend ending in March 2009.)
- Both facts are supposed to convince us that global warming neither stalled nor ended in 2001.
Well…. I’ve haven’t claimed global warming stopped or stalled in 2001. (In any case I’m not sure precisely what those terms are supposed to mean. If all they mean is temperature trends are down since 2001…. well, they are! If they mean that GHG’s don’t tend to cause warming and warming won’t resume… Well, the data don’t mean that.)
While GISS went up a tiny bit, from 0.41 in February 09 to 0.47 °C in March 09, you could figure that .06 °C to be essentially unchanged month to month and part of the “noise”. The lack of any real increase in trends since 2001 is the most interesting part of the GISS story.
GISS took their 1999 temperatures and “adjusted” them. Here’s a blink gif showing the result: click
This deal with adjusting past numbers downward has GOT to stop. At what point are the numbers considered “Good?”. I’ve never seen a dataset used where the data was changed as you went along.
If Pliner is right and the increase in heat is largely driven by the mid-Pacific ridge, doesn’t that sound like a mechanism which explains the increase in CO2? As the ocean plates push, twist and pull on each other, the volcanoes and vents heat the water, which makes it’s way to the equatorial coast of SA. The current upwells and we see the birth of a new Baby boy, El Nino. The heat, in turn also releases CO2 which is measured at Mauna Loa. I’m sure someone has proposed this somewhere before. Do the changes in Mauna Loa CO2 fit with the El Ninos after a short lag?
DJ (15:49:22) :
You have got to be kidding me. 0.47C above normal at the end of a La Nina and with a severe protracted solar minimum and we are still pretending it’s not “warming”.
DJ – I’m glad you have acknowledged that “severe protracted solar minimum” plays a significant role. Please inform Hansen et al so they can update the models to allow for the reverse effects of the past 30 years, not to forget the big cooling to come.
Keep up the good work !!!
Does anyone know why they are no longer putting out actual maps of the satellite temp on
http://climate.uah.edu ?
GISSTemp data is more like a novelty item, what with its base seeming to be built on bad siting and skewed towards ground temps in urban settings. It’s more like the mirrors in the funhouse; they kinda, sorta reflect what’s happening, but aren’t to be taken too seriously.
Is there still a differentiation between accuracy and precision?
If we have ten or thousands of temperature readings in whole degrees, we can perform wonderous arithmetic operations and end up with lots of places to the right of the decimal point, but do these operations improve the precision of readings in whole degrees? Isn’t the level of precision at least somewhat limited by the least precise data used?
Great posts, Larry Sheldon.
Terry J (21:03:14) The differentiation still exists- but unfortunately its importance has wilted. I was taught measurement to be valid must be accurate and precise-GISS is neither. I find it useless to discuss data that is not valid.
One of your best, too, Mr. Bigot, or may I call you Fat?
DJ (15:49:22) :”You have got to be kidding me. 0.47C above normal at the end of a La Nina and with a severe protracted solar minimum and we are still pretending it’s not “warming”.”
Nah, it’s just “weather.” Doesn’t count. And yes, we were kidding you. Speaking of kidding, how are things down at the Bijou Theater?
DJ
A “anomaly of .47 Celsius above an artificially chosen base line and using obviously fudged data to make it larger does not make me give up and admit that catastrophy is coming.
I am freezing! It is clear that the error in the “trend” created by the data fudging is large. Perhaps as large as the entire “trend” over the last half century.
Speaking of days of wiggle, how many more before you admit that the data set that creates the warming you think is there is worthless; if not actually fraud?
“According to GISS, of the 129 Marches for which there is global temperature, only 10 have been warmer than the one just past.”
May I have your attention folks, as I perform my death defying predictions, using only the simple power of the human brain and wearing a blind fold to outside media, whilst preforming without the aid of a computer model!
A feat only witnessed in my grade school days, my own monumental scientific achievement in between something like the mathematical understanding of Einsteins “E = mc2 “ and the understanding of “Mary baked one pie, give her friends two quarters, what percentage of the pie does Mary have left? ”.
My prediction for 2010,
* drum roll
March 2010 will be the 11 warmest year ever recorded or lower.
And I’m being super cereal this time guys!
:p hehehe!
GISS is like a work of art. It has been carefully crafted by James son of John, an observer of the stars and the earth. He took the raw materials that had been carefully gathered over many years by faithful stewards. The materials, he found, were static, unmoving. They told no story. With nothing more than his hands, his imagination and a calculating machine, he made these materials jump and dance to his tune. The story that he told to explain this clever, dynamic piece of ever-changing art, astonished his admirers, and brought even more value to his creation.
The King called James son of John to his side and asked how he could help to make the story even more beautiful and real. Together they planned the transformation of the kingdom. The story and the canvas brought change to the land, and as more people saw the beauty of it they neglected the older practices. Now, not only was the kingdom beautiful but all the people were better for the sacrifices they made.
Like all art, of course, there are those who do not appreciate it. But they were the common folk who couldn’t appreciate the subtle nuances of this dynamic construction.
As the King passed law after law and collected more and more of the voluntary taxes, the King and the artisans grew fat. Alas, like any art or edifice, that has been constructed by the hand of man, it could not last forever. The people, unfortunately, were left with little except a lovely piece on canvas and a story of the adjustable lines thereon.
The King is not the King any longer and the artisans are once again among the people. James is spending his waning years in the company of knaves. The stories he now tells are of former glory and regret.
The work of art was carefully deconstructed by a few faithful stewards of facts, and the materials were put back into their places never to dance again.
The people had tired of the story.
Bill Illis (17:38:52) :
There are some strange hotspots in the GISS March 2009 (250 km radius) map.
Eastern Siberia as high as +7.9C
Aral Sea region as high as +6.3C
Svalbaard Island +4.7C
Central Antartica +3.15C (south pole at -51C was actually 3.0C warmer than normal).
This is probably a result of relative few surface stations at these locations so such anomalities (either way) are to be expected. The actual measurements from Svalbard for March are:
Bjørnøya: -4.2C (+3.4)
Hopen: -7.7C (+6.0)
Sveagruva: -12.9 (+3.3)
Svalbard airport -11.5 (+4.2)
Ny-Ålesund: -11.9 (+2.3)
Anomalities are relative to 1961-90 and range from +2.3 to +6.0.
The -11.5 (+4.2) figure for Svalbard lufthavn makes it the 18th warmest March since 1912 (but data before 1976 are “homogenised”, i.e. modelled). The warmest are:
2007: -6.7
1996: -6.8
1934: -7.5
2004: -7.6
1976: -7.6
1999: -7.7
1982: -8.5
1991: -8.6
1974: -9.2
1994: -9.4
1983: -10.0
1949: -10.0
1960: -10.1
1950: -10.1
1920: -10.3
1955: -11.2
1992: -11.4
2009: -11.5
March temperatures range from -26.3C (1917) to -6.7 (2007), so big anomalities are pretty common.
” Layman Lurker (17:14:16) :
The temp trends for most of midwest US and western Canada seem too warm. Does anyone else see anything that stands out from their part of the world?”
It snowed on easter day here this year. I remember when i was a kid it being 90 degrees and getting a sunburn on Easter. wtf
Let’s don’t overlook the fact that UAH has this Mar at 0.12 Warmer than last year. I assume RSS does, also.
I’m, also, not sure I’d want to get caught playing with GISS numbers.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
“Bill Illis (18:16:45) : Apparently, it was quite warm in the US Mid-West in March,”
Warm? It was cooking!
Maybe James Hansen will end up on the Food Network some day with his own cooking show. Then everyone will be able to see what he’s been doing for a living. Maybe he’ll be better at it than drawing crowds to protests. 😉
Hehe I guess we are going to have to use our /sarc tags.. some of ya didnt get the joke, Smokey got it tho:) That was a real nice temp chart Smokey.. hehe
FatBigot (19:02:11) wrote: “I love reports like this. Just the mention of “anomaly” and my eyes glaze over in total ignorance, but still I read on.”
Phew! What a relief, FB… then I am not alone after all…
This is OT, but a must read for all, especially Australians.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/15/2543797.htm
It will be interesting to see what the outcome is here. The Garnaut report has been the centrepiece of the AGW campagne for climate change policy in Australia.
I wonder what the March 2009 GISS anomaly will be in the future 😉
The UK Met Office has made a decision.
“A Met Office spokesman said that it was uncommon for temperatures to get so warm in so early in the year. The highest temperature recorded so far in 2009 was 68.5F (20.3C) in Weybourne, Norfolk on Good Friday.
“If you look at the average maximum temperatures for the south of England in April, it is around 53.96F (12.2C),” she said. “In the Thames corridor on Wednesday it will go up to 69.8F (21C), which will make it the warmest day of the year.”
She added: “The rest of the week will be more unsettled. Eastern and southern parts will continue to see the best weather, but other areas will see some showers.”
The warm and wet conditions are forecast to continue for the next few months, with the Met Office predicting a “typical British summer” combination of downpours and sun.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/5154187/Warmest-day-of-the-year-as-temperatures-hit-21C.html
So we are going to have a “typical British summer” are we? Does anyone know what that means? Half the days wet, half sunny? One quarter of the days wet? How long is the summer? June 21st to September 21st|? The Easter holiday period in NW London was grey from GF to 3pm on Easter Monday, brighter yesterday morning, rain overnight and grey now at 9-50 a. m.
Right now, my feet are freezing. I shall have to put the heating on again.
Perry
Wondering Aloud,
“…how many more before you admit that the data set that creates the warming you think is there is worthless; if not actually fraud?”
As I noted elsewhere, all of the global temperature datasets (UAH, RSS, HadCRUT, GISS) show a warming trend, so I presume you think they all are worthless, if not actually fraud.
GISS data needs this analogy to be clearly understood:
You are shop foreman at a small manufacturer of widgets. You notice the widget quality control reports don’t seem to match the actual parts. You approach the QC manager, Krej. Krej explains:
1. There are many types of adjustments for failing, missing or poorly functioning QC equipment.
2. When one inspector is out, missing inspection reports are computer generated based on averages from reports of other inspectors… or on estimates of what inspection reports should show.
3. Unexpected results are sometimes thrown out and replaced with estimates. The “estimates” arise from what clients expect to see on the inspection reports.
4. Inspection reports from decades ago are often changed based on revised estimates of what they should have been.
How does this tale end? You go to your boss and complain. You are promptly fired, while Krej is given a huge bonus and a plaque.
…but there will come a day when clients become painfully aware that their widgets don’t match the QC inspection reports… and that they’ve been sold a load of bull puckey.
It may take a while, but the QC dept. will one day have some explaining to do.
No No No Mike Bryant @16:35:32
it should be
March 2009 is
The Coldest<iLleast warm March of the Millenium!