Following up on the cold spring story from Friday, one of the favorite mantras of the global warming community has been that global warming brings earlier spring seasons. If a bird shows up earlier than someone in Yorkshire expected, a news story often appears at The Guardian or BBC explaining that it is due to “man made global warming.” A Google search of “global warming early spring” produces more than 300,000 hits.
So what happens when nature refuses to cooperate? Below are some claims from the top ten, interspersed with recent observations from the cold spring season of 2009.
Today’s NCEP forecast for the US – cold across the entire country + Canada + Mexico
Accuweather spring snow forecast through today. I’m guessing that no one is planting crops in Nebraska today.
Global warming causes quakes, early spring
Earthquakes?
Global warming brings early spring to Arctic
Three people based their spring backpacking trip on that theory:
Catlin Arctic Explorer Martin Hartley
Current spring conditions in the Arctic
| Weather |
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-35°C℃ |
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Mild winter rattles Russians : Psychiatrists warn lack of cold, sun, snow lead some into depression
Today’s NCEP forecast for Russia – severe springtime cold
Perhaps all that extra CO2 is being affected by the global recession, and is unable to find employment in it’s normal line of work – trapping heat.
Protesting snowmen on the unemployment lines – H/T to Jennifer Marohasy
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ralph ellis (15:03:39) sez: “…The BBC for example, being a thoroughbred AGW promoter, omits ‘variability’ from its list of wind power disadvantages….”
Yes, but notice that among the advantages for wind power they list: “If the turbines need to be taken down, there is no damage to the environment and no residues are left behind.”
LOL. There’s nothing like planning ahead, is there?
Roger Sowell (11:53:12) :
Far off-topic, but someone brought up Sci-fi writers (one of my favorites, Arthur C. Clarke).
If it ever really comes down to it, and we (mankind) need to maintain Arctic ice, here is a blue-sky idea:
What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap? Or, would the obvious difference of Antarctica being surrounded by ocean make a difference?
Has anyone heard of such a proposal?
Good luck with that, the average depth of the Arctic is ~3400′.
Tom in South Jersey (16:57:57) :
Hi Tom I take it you enjoyed the unseasonably warm weather today?
65ºF (~10º above normal)
Jim, no offense intended re making things up, not citing sources. There are substantial differences between what Germany and California are doing. It ties back to what I wrote earlier, percent of wind-power on the grid.
re German wind power. Germany is exploring the limits of wind-power as a percent of total generating capacity. From published reports (see link below), some areas in Germany have 40 percent of their power from wind. It is not clear to me if that is total GWhrs generated, or installed capacity. Our experience in California is that we have about 9 percent of grid installed capacity is wind-power, with 2.3 percent of the GWhr sold (2007 data from California Energy Commission):
http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/total_system_power.html
Although I did work in Germany years ago, I have not lived there and cannot speak on the consistency of their wind. Apparently, it is very sporadic. Our experience in California shows it works at our level, which is very low compared to the entire grid. Our blackouts are due to other factors, such as heat waves with inadequate generating plant (we built more plants), and human error ( a utility worker blacked out Los Angeles for half a day a couple of years ago — had nothing to do with wind-power). Also, our wind tends to blow more strongly at night. Wind-generation is very site-specific, as is commonly stated in many publications.
German wind energy: (text in English; the data portion of this is in German)
http://www.wind-energie.de/en/news/article/annual-balance-for-wind-energy-generated-in-2008/166/
@retired BChE,
There is much research and some action in the electric power storage area, with some good information from U.S. Dept Of Energy. (see link below).
There are presently six main areas of research for storage: flywheels, batteries, capacitors, compressed-air energy storage (CAES), superconducting magnetic energy storage, and pumped-storage hydroelectric. None of these are economically attractive, because the initial cost of the storage system is very large.
http://www.eere.energy.gov/de/energy_storage.html
The Germans I had the privilege of working with are some of the smartest guys around. If they cannot make it work at 40 percent, there is likely a real limit right around there.
Finally got some Spring weather up on Whidbey Island yesterday and today. Though Saturday morning began with a frost, it got into the high 50s. Today it got into the mid 60s, only very high cirrus clouds. Got to do some mowing.
**** CONGRATULATIONS JEFF, YOURS IS THE 100,000th COMMENT POSTED ON WUWT**** – Anthony
Mike86 (16:07:11) sez: “So even the nuclear plant is going to have to have a spinning turbine on a constant basis to back up the wind turbine. Otherwise, you’re requiring that the turbine come to speed instantan
ieously, which is going to cause some mechanical issues with torque.”There’s more flexibility in wind turbines than some people like to think. Wind turbines do not come to an immediate halt. The blades have tremendous inertia and slow gradually as wind drops off, providing some ramp-up time for the backup source. “Runaway” excess power is also less problematic than represented– many wind turbines are equipped with variable pitch blades that permit modulating the RPMs to meet grid synchronization requirements.
Slightly O/T. The sea ice extent graph on the IJIS website seems to be stuck on March 29. Wondering if this may be an equipment malfunction (or update?) or have they been busy ‘correcting’ the data??
ralph ellis (14:23:12) :
“… the politicians go on about taking less flights, using smaller cars and switching the standby on the TV off …”
There seem to be some missing words, surely it should read “the politicians go on about PEOPLE OTHER THAN THEM taking …”
On a different issue raised in the comments, it seems to me that all arguments for switching to “green” electricity production fail to take into account a significant factor. The generation and distribution of electricity is not done for the fun of it. It is done to ensure, so far as possible, that human beings are provided with a steady supply of something they rely on to provide physical and financial comfort. In order to achieve this it is necessary to cope with enormous variations in demand through each day, demands that vary throughout the week and throughout the year as human activity changes.
There is, as I understand it, a small capacity for storage, but generally it is supply on demand. This requires a set of power generators to operate constantly to provide for normal usage and for those generators to be turned up when demand increases. It also requires additional capacity to be available at very short notice to cope with particular surges in demand. Quite apart from the inability of windmills and solar panels to provide a steady supply, they have absolutely no capacity to turn up the volume when people are cooking dinner or when millions are boiling water for a cup of tea during the commercial break in the nation’s favourite soap opera.
By all means develop the technology so that “green” generators can do what coal, gas and nuclear can achieve today; but no one should fool themselves into thinking that the “green” options are yet anywhere near viable as wholesale producers of the electricity we need. The purpose of the “green” alternatives is to satisfy demand not to satisfy politicians. Until they can guarantee a steady supply for the times of steady demand and an additional supply whenever there is a surge in demand they will remain an irrelevant backwater.
Unfortunately, this isn’t true. The concrete bases will always be there. The roads required for every single wind turbine will remain to scar the land for decades. The landscapes changed by intensive wind development will be marred forever.
jorgekafkazar (18:45:33) :
Yes, but notice that among the advantages for wind power they list: “If the turbines need to be taken down, there is no damage to the environment and no residues are left behind.”
Adolfo Giurfa (09:40:33) :
Man Vs Ants – Advantage Ants
I’m waiting for the AGW management to come up with their version of Global Idol.
Couple of Golden Calves will do in a pinch.
Hey folks,
Go through Club Of Rome 1970’s Archives. The doom and gloom anti-human league wrote policy reports how ‘global warming’ would be an effective population control devise. In 1992 they wrote… ““In searching for a new enemy to unite us we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill…All these dangers are caused by human intervention…The real enemy then, is humanity itself.”
Teach that to high school and college kids.
Also read the ‘non’ classified version of the
‘Model State Emergency Health Powers Act’
With the attempt to pull of a man made pandemic soon you will be floored to familiarize yourself with the subsections of ‘Confiscation and Rationing of Personal Property’
You don’t have to believe ANYTHING just read.
2-6 in of snow forecast here , normally apple trees would be blossomed.
oh well.
It is a very late spring in the Norwegian arctic. Record low temperatures for the first week of April in Svalbard. Temperatures have been 10 C below normal values for a week now. And more of the same in the forecast.
Tropical:
click Data Download on the site to get the latest data. Just the graph has not been updated, the data is there.
Not doubt that the current winter and spring in the northern hemisphere is older than the trend for the last 30 years.
One easy way to verify warming in spring and summer temperatures (especially over the past 30 years) is to look at the duration of ice on lakes and rivers and to look at long term data on lake temperatures (long term data sets for lakes across the world are shown in a paper in press in Limnology and Oceanography–perhaps Athony will post it when it becomes available). Many journal articles (see Google Scholar) show strong, long term trends (mostly 30-100 years) toward reduced ice cover in lakes and warmer spring and summer lake temperatures. This is what is being reflected in seasonal phenology and plants, bird breeding etc. It will be interesting to see how plants and animals respond to this year’s cooler spring. However, plants and animals do not respond to what is happening high above the earth’s surface.
Phil. (18:57:36) :
Tom in South Jersey (16:57:57) :
Hi Tom I take it you enjoyed the unseasonably warm weather today?
65ºF (~10º above normal)
Yes Phil, thanks for asking. It was a beautiful day. I much prefer the warmer weather over the cooler weather. Unfortunately the nice, warmer days have been few this year. Fortunately it’s weather and not so much climate, although both are always in flux. Hopefully we will soon have a repeat of Sunday’s weather, but the 10 day forecast says no. However they’ve been wrong before.
What’s up with all this “warmer spring” stuff. I live in Alaska. The World Famous Kenai River is still FROZEN SOLID as of today 4-5-09. I have only lived here for 22 years but this is the longest I can remember it still being frozen over. I don’t mean just a little ice, I mean solid with no signs of thawing soon!!!!!!!
The State of Alaska DOT usually puts “loads limits” on the highways in the spring because of the frost in the roads. As of today there are no load limits on the roads. A contractor friend of mine is in his mid 60’s and he can’t ever remember the load limints not being on by now!!!!
Since March 15 we have received 8 to 15 feet, that’s feet not inches, of fresh snow in the mountains around our area!
I’m no scientist but I’m certainly questioning this whole “Global Warming” stuff!!!!
>>Spinning Standby. As I understand it, wind power still saves some
>> energy as the fuel demand for most generators depends on the load
Perhaps, but all the capital costs for the standby power station are still there. The site, the equipment, the personnel – all have to be present to keep a power station on spinning standby. Thus, you have instantly doubled the cost of power generation, and not saved much CO2. Perhaps trebbled the cost, because wind turbines are hardly cheap per Mwh.
>>Variations in wind power are no different for a large grid than
>>variations in load due to starting/stopping millions of motors
>>or turning on tvs or computers
Sorry, you are wrong here. Variability in ”demand” is predictable and short-lived. In the UK we have an enourmous pumped-water hydro system at Dinorwig that can soak up all that extra demand for up to 5 hours.
Variability in electrical ”supply” from wind power is another problem entirely. Firstly, it is not always predictable 12 hours in advance (the time it takes to start a fossil-powered plant). Secondly, wind and solar power can go off for weeks on end, which no storage system (the usual reply) can cope with.
This is fine when wind and solar power represents 2% of supply, but a real problem when it hits 20% of supply – grids cannot cope with such large outages. The New York blackout was precipitated by just one power line going down, and a cascade of outages followed. As you said in your post:
” What really gave (the grid) fits was when we had to stop that motor (genetrator) during an emergency – when it tripped off-line they had some problems.”
Precisely (and with a little 7.5 Mw generator too), and this is the problem that Spain has had with wind variability (with only 10% wind generation) – it nearly trips the grid, and they have resorted to ‘brownouts’ to keep it running. And I have to say that a deep brownout plays havock with computers, they really don’t like low voltages.
Tidal is not much better, as it goes up and down as often as a whore’s drawers. No grid could cope with that.
>>Is any kind of electrical storage used to smooth out
>>fluctuations in the wind velocity, and if so, is is batteries
>>or something else?
This is the great unspoken Achillies Heel of all renewable power – that there is no backup system. I don’t think people realise how much energy we use.
Pumped water hydro is the most viable option, but to keep the UK going for two weeks, we would need 1400 Dinorwigs (Google, Dinorwig power). Not only would the capital cost be astronomic, but there are not enough hills in the UK.
Batteries – I think I calulated that the battery would have to be the size of Coventry and Leicester combined.
Flywheels. Ditto, and you would not get me within 50 miles of such a manic device.
Compressed air – these systems use fossil fuels, which defeats the object somewhat. The energy losses are high too.
In short, there is no storage system that is going to backup wind, solar or wave power for a week or a fortnight (the longest period in the UK without wind in the last few years was one whole month). This makes most renewables worse than useless, as they will potentially bring down governments and kill millions. Can you imagine the USA in deep mid-winter, without power for a week?? How many would perish??
This needs to be hammered home to the Al Gore fraternity, that they are playing with the lives of millions in their promotion of renewables. In fact, they could be classed as the most dangerous organisation in the world, far more dangerous than Osama, Kim Jong-il and Armadinnerjacket combined.
.
Most people look at a tree in a forest and assume the whole forest is made up of the same tree. The same can be said for global warming. The oceans are like a giant temperature regulation system for the planet. In order for a current of warm water to flow from the equator towards the poles there needs to be temperature differences of a certain amount. When you disrupt these temperatures, either by cooling or warming you can, in fact, cause abnormal temperatures.
In other words people assume that global warming is a constant when in fact it is a variable. It can cause colder temperatures as well as warmer. Basically not a over all warming but a temperature imbalance that can be disastrous to the climate as a whole.
So don’t think of it as early spring or colder winters, think of it as a house without proper air flow. Some rooms are hot while others are cold and no matter how long the furnace/ac runs some rooms just aren’t livable.
Here in Britain the “Early Spring” stories arrived even earlier than usual this year – the first being spotted on 6th January!
http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/sw/Daffodils-defy-Devon-s-big-freezearticle-587673-details/article.html
Mention of the Spanish wind generated electricity reminded me that you can see this in real time.
https://demanda.ree.es/eolica.html
Note that the vertical scale is adjusted day to day such that the graphed output nicely fits the screen. The figure to note is the current output as a % of the turbine generating capacity.
Also note that (obviously) there is no relationship to the total current damand, which you can see here.
https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html
that’s happen in the northern
in tropical country, we suffered more heavy rain. Flood are become more deadly.
Another provocative post. Anthony’s numbers resemble a moonsot.
“>> The Chinese could:
>> 1. Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasury Bonds.
They dare not ”
The Chinese own $2 trillion in US debt.
This year we will try to sell $2.5 trillion, GB 500 billion. The Chinese are freaking out.
We are insane.
Moonshot.
Central Mn patiently awaits spring. Heard a robin.
This Just In – Stupidity & Greed Cause Global Warming
I’m glad to see that Cap & Trade is circling the drain. I find it surprising how long this global warming baloney is hanging on. It must be the promise of power and money.
Meanwhile, Cleveland, Ohio is bracing for a foot of snow today and tomorrow; less than a week before Easter.
Scott –
If you read poetry through the centuries, then you will notice how poets three hundred years ago, wrote poems about spring appearing in january and snowing in the summer. Nature are very well documented in poetry.
Nature is unpredictible. Always was and always will. Humans can’t do anything about it. Maybe Al Gore wake up in the morning and think that he is the centre of the universe. That he can control the sun. Good luck to him. : )