Guest post by Steven Goddard
The Washington Post reports today:
An undersea volcano erupts off the coast of Tonga, tossing clouds of smoke, steam and ash thousands of feet (meters) into the sky above the South Pacific ocean, Tuesday, March 17, 2009. The eruption was at sea about 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the southwest coast of the main island of Tongatapu an area where up to 36 undersea volcanoes are clustered
Besides the unusual feet to meters conversion in the quote above, I found it interesting because the SST maps show a warm anomaly in that region, and extending off to the east. Is that anomaly a result or coincidence?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
How much influence do volcanoes have on local climates?
We know that the Antarctic Peninsula (advertised as the fastest warming place on the planet) is a volcanic chain which has seen recent activity.
Noted Antarctic expert Eric Steig tells us that Volcanoes under the ice can’t affect climate on the surface, 2 miles above! This is indeed true and interesting, because CO2 on the surface reportedly can affect the melting of the basal ice, two miles below.
According to some of the best AGW minds, increases of 0.0001 atmospheric CO2 concentration may be more powerful at affecting localized micro-climates than are 2000 degree volcanoes.
In another volcanically active area, the Gakkel Ridge, which was shown to have eruptions last year, the possibility also exists for localized warming. Here is a schematic of the Gakkel Ridge sea floor:
However in that case there is the claim by oceanographic experts that it is impossible for the sea ice above to be affected due to stratifed water layers and thus making the released heat “unable to communicate” to the surface.
Perhaps that is true, but does that stratification remain in a steady state? And is such an inability to “communicate” heat from the depths a feature of our oceans globally?
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Once again, the Earth is vindicating us skeptics.
Let’s see if the volcano party keeps going on. Last year the Chaiten Volcano plume crossed all south america and its still active. If R.W. Fairbridge (link above) was right then we’ll see more of the kind along in this minimum.
Smokey. Good points. To say ” NEVER HAVE and NEVER WILL”, exhibits a little hubris, IMO. When observations are prefaced with” it appears”, or “possibly”, i have a great deal more faith in the conclusions. The author is acknowledging that what we don’t know, greatly exceeds the sum of what we do know. As i have aged,(60), i am less and less certain of things that i “knew”, when i was 20. The addition of heat seems likely to have some effect. To argue otherwise seems counter intuitive.
On the lunchtime news today they treated this as the last story ‘novelty item’ thing.
Idiots.
correction. Make that DO NOT AND CANNOT. I believe that statement exhibits an arrogance that should be toned down in public debate.
Having watched otters diving through holes caused by geo-thermal heating in the ice in Yellowstone on TV the other night one can’t help thinking that there will be some effect at the surface. One would also think that this probably wasn’t a digital event and there would have been some heating at the sea floor for a fair bit of time. Most continental volcanoes give some signs that they are changing.
Isn’t there a deep cold current flowing roughly north in that area of the Pacific? Is that going to have an effect on where any anomaly would show itself at the surface?
Also isn’t that area on the cusp of where the the prevailing winds in the pacific blow either SE Trades or Westerlies? Thereby confusing the issue further.
I am interested in anyones thoughts as there are a lot of ingrediants in this mixture.
To facilitate things, here the Abstract from R.W.Fairbridge:
ABSTRACT
The largest volcanic eruptions since AD 1800 correlate with periods
of enhanced seismicity , changes in the earth’ s spin rate, and the
Chandler wobble. Furthermore, a marked increase in the number of
major eruptions apparently occurred during the Maunder Sunspot Minimum
(1645-1715) at a time when global temperatures were depressed.
Solar activity might trigger volcanism through solar-induced climate
change which could lead to variations in global spin rate and hence to
increased crustal stresses and seismic and volcanic potential . Such
solar activity may be modulated by planetary tidal effects which
might additionally lead to enhanced crustal stress through direct influence
on the earth’s axial tilt, wobble and rate of rotation .
There has just been a warning issued about a 7.9 magnitude earthquake and possible tsunami at Tonga…
I think it will be more interesting to see what happens in the next few days (weeks?) to sea surface temperatures in the area. Lava gives off enough heat as it cools and solidifies to have a significant impact, according to this guy’s calculations, though I don’t know where his numbers come from:
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=1927
Peter Hearndon,
Why don’t you do the math and enlighten us? You can provide a proof that it is not about AGW because at any conceivable level of output volcanoes won’t heat the ocean. That’s what you said when put in logical formulation.
They just had a major quake there: 7.9 at 18:17:37 UTC.
OT, perhaps, but an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred an hour and a half ago in the same general area.
OT, but please support SOHO:
How to Vote:
Click on the mission name (in this case SOHO) and a blue arrow will appear. Click on the blue arrow and SOHO will move ahead of STS-7. Do that for all the missions you would like to vote and then click SUBMIT VOTE (top center of the page, looks like a basket ball). There is also TRACE and STEREO to vote. You can vote as many times.
http://mission-madness.nasa.gov/mm/bracket.html
Very timely article.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Tonga region 7.9 mag earthquake at 18:17 GMT
alexandriu doru (09:00:27) says: “The mean geothermal flux on earth is 60 mW/m^2; The mean solar flux on earth is 240W/m^2. Volcans (sic) DO NOT AND CAN NOT influence global warming.”
I love your logic. Here’s more of it: the mean velocity of lead mineral deposits is 0.00 miles per hour. You CAN NOT AND WILL NOT ever get hurt by a bullet.
Hell_is_like_newark (10:09:59) : Answer to your question:
The activity near Tonga is a “convergent margin”, meaning two plates coming together with, in this case, the Pacific Plate subducting (going under) the northeastern corner of the Australian Plate. Short explanation can be found here:
http://www.bambooweb.com/articles/T/o/Tonga_Trench.html
http://www.seablogger.com/?p=13095
*
Tonga Temblor
Thursday, 19 Mar 09, volcanoes
“A tremendous earthquake has struck the island nation of Tonga. The preliminary measure is 7.9. This is enough to cause a considerable tsunami. The epicenter was located 210 km SSE of the capitol. Meanwhile, just 12 km from the capitol, a submarine volcano has been exploding for several days. You’ve probably seen some of the photos. The linked image shows two active vents, one just below the sea, and one just above it. The earthquake was a major tectonic event, not directly connected with the eruption, but it could certainly influence the behavior of Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai. Don’t you love the sound of that name? Truly scary”.
One of the first web sites I check every day is http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
You can observe the Tonga region. The biggest red circle visible now is the Tonga earth quake, or should we say sea quake.
There was a 7.9 MAG earthquake at
23.015°S, 174.782°W — 210km SSE of NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga
Today
ak: Nice detective work, if true. Not sure you’re right, but it’s a better than average post in any case, since some thought and investigation went into it.
Just for your information: Seismic activity Tonga region last 2 weeks`;
Last 2 Weeks of Earthquakes
(within 10 degrees of LON=-174.7818, LAT=-23.0152)
DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.
DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
19-MAR-2009 18:17:37 -23.02 -174.78 7.9 10.0 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
16-MAR-2009 15:25:20 -20.65 -175.77 5.0 81.1 TONGA ISLANDS
15-MAR-2009 20:28:53 -15.49 -173.22 5.0 35.0 TONGA ISLANDS
14-MAR-2009 03:04:12 -20.00 -175.43 4.8 156.5 TONGA ISLANDS
13-MAR-2009 03:26:44 -21.19 -175.57 4.4 147.0 TONGA ISLANDS
12-MAR-2009 23:04:12 -17.60 -174.27 4.6 108.5 TONGA ISLANDS
09-MAR-2009 19:42:16 -21.90 -175.18 5.1 10.0 TONGA ISLANDS
06-MAR-2009 20:19:05 -15.02 -173.12 4.9 11.0 TONGA ISLANDS
06-MAR-2009 08:21:26 -15.19 -173.39 5.0 10.0 TONGA ISLANDS
06-MAR-2009 07:24:04 -15.08 -173.45 4.8 10.0 TONGA ISLANDS
s displayed.
Steven: I’ve marked up your map to illustrate where Tonga is located.
http://s5.tinypic.com/25kohg1.jpg
I continue to believe you’re pointing to weather noise on the SST anomaly map.
Earthquakes too:
Mag 7.9 Thursday, March 19, 2009 at 18:17:37 UTC
Mag 5.2 Thursday, March 19, 2009 at 20:33:59 UTC
See http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/185_-25.php
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/03/19/tonga.quake/ says in part:
A tsunami warning was issued and then canceled Friday shortly after a major earthquake struck early Friday off the coast of Tonga.
The earthquake “generated a small tsunami,” but there is “no evidence of destructive waves,” said Stewart Weinstein, assistant director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.
Ken Hudnut, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, California, said: “The association with the volcanic activity seems to be an interesting added dimension to this. It’s not clear at this point that there is a direct association, but it seems suggestive at this point.”
Smokey (09:22:41) :
“The fact that the UN/IPCC doesn’t account for 200,000+ submarine volcanoes [and is apparently even unaware of their existence] casts major doubts on the IPCC’s conclusions and competence.
What else should we expect from a politically appointed body?”
Smokey,
I don’t think we need the undersea volcano argument to disqualify IPCC climate reports.
The last three WUWT postings finished them off already:
# Arctic Ice Thickness Measured From Buoys
# Steve McIntyre’s ICCC09 presentation with notes
# Brokaw’s Global Warming Special – count the errors
# Finally – an honest quantification of urban warming by a major climate scientist
And Obama’s 2 trillion dollar climate plan to stop the warming of the cooling will do the rest.
If I have a pot of water which is going heat it the most?
1) a 2000W hair dryer from above
2) a 2000W stove element from below.
Others will probably have posted this, but just in case (from AP):
NUKU’ALOFA, Tonga (AP) – The U.S. Geological Survey says that a 7.9 earthquake has struck near Tonga, prompting a tsunami warning for adjacent islands in the South Pacific.
The USGS says that the quake struck about 130 miles (200 kilometers) south-southeast of the Tongan capital of Nuku’Alofa at a depth of 6.2 miles (10 kilometers). It struck Friday morning local time.
There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage.The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has issued a tsunami warning for neighboring islands, but it was not immediately known if a tsunami had been generated.
It also advises that some coastal areas of Hawaii could see a rise in sea level and strong currents lasting up to several hours.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009ejbr.php