Guest post by Steven Goddard
The Washington Post reports today:
An undersea volcano erupts off the coast of Tonga, tossing clouds of smoke, steam and ash thousands of feet (meters) into the sky above the South Pacific ocean, Tuesday, March 17, 2009. The eruption was at sea about 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the southwest coast of the main island of Tongatapu an area where up to 36 undersea volcanoes are clustered
Besides the unusual feet to meters conversion in the quote above, I found it interesting because the SST maps show a warm anomaly in that region, and extending off to the east. Is that anomaly a result or coincidence?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
How much influence do volcanoes have on local climates?
We know that the Antarctic Peninsula (advertised as the fastest warming place on the planet) is a volcanic chain which has seen recent activity.
Noted Antarctic expert Eric Steig tells us that Volcanoes under the ice can’t affect climate on the surface, 2 miles above! This is indeed true and interesting, because CO2 on the surface reportedly can affect the melting of the basal ice, two miles below.
According to some of the best AGW minds, increases of 0.0001 atmospheric CO2 concentration may be more powerful at affecting localized micro-climates than are 2000 degree volcanoes.
In another volcanically active area, the Gakkel Ridge, which was shown to have eruptions last year, the possibility also exists for localized warming. Here is a schematic of the Gakkel Ridge sea floor:
However in that case there is the claim by oceanographic experts that it is impossible for the sea ice above to be affected due to stratifed water layers and thus making the released heat “unable to communicate” to the surface.
Perhaps that is true, but does that stratification remain in a steady state? And is such an inability to “communicate” heat from the depths a feature of our oceans globally?
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Charles Darwin proposed that coral atolls [e.g., Tonga] were formed by extinct undersea volcanoes. As the extinct volcanic cone gradually subsided, coral built on it and formed the atoll: click [scroll to the last paragraph, p. 232.]
There was much dispute among scientists about Darwin’s hypothesis, but eventually Darwin was proved right. So the current volcanic activity may eventually bring about a new coral atoll.
The sea level isn’t currently rising, and when it did rise in the recent past, the increase was simply part of a natural ebb and flow. As can be seen in this picture, the sea level has not changed much from the mid-1800’s. So the argument that AGW is causing the sea level to rise is falsified.
Note the cool La Nina-like conditions milling about around the equator just off the West coast of South America
Where there is smoke there is fire… where there is steam there is heat!!! I would think that the super heated steam would have much more effect than the CO2 contained in the “smoke”.
What is that anomaly to the east of Argentina?
Quite some time ago I developed an interest in submarine volcanic activity. At the time I had, and still have, several questions regarding their effect on…
1) Sea temperatures
2) Sequestered CO2 & CH4
3) New volcanic emissions
Logic tells me that the depth of a volcano would alter its impact. Some say they have no impact. I can see that as true for a volcano at great depth. Certainly one in the Marianas Trench over 30,000 feet deep would have minimal to no effect. However, at shallower depths they must.
The problem of course is that there are 10,000 or more submarine volcanoes, we don’t have an accurate inventory, nor are they really monitored with exception of a few.
With the oceans playing a major role in the earth’s climate it would seem that man needs a greater understanding of them inclusive of submarine volcanic activity. Currently we have about 70 major (VEI 4 or larger) land based volcano eruptions per century.
http://penoflight.com/climatebuzz/Misc/MajorVol1.jpg (data points are at 50 yr increments.)
It would stand to reason that there should have been about 600 – 700 major ( VEI 4 or larger ) submarine volcano eruptions last century, if not more.
Underwater volcano’s could be the next hot topic.
Underwater volcanos
http://www.iceagenow.com/Ocean_Warming.htm
From a report on Hydrothermal vents, a quote:
Temperature and velocity measurements
obtained within a few centimeters of focused vent orifices yield
power outputs which range from less than 1 to nearly 100 MW,
http://www.nwra.com/resumes/pruis/Pruisetal_deepsea_2004.pdf
So maybe these ocean temperature maps may serve a greater purpose…detecting imminent volcanic activity?
OT Anthony, but have you seen “Melting Antarctic Ice Part of Natural Cycle” at http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/melting-antarctic-ice-part-natural-cycle?
I would have thought that as heat rises, or at least it used to, although not necessarily evenly & linearly the heat from a volcanic sub-surface eruption would find its way upwards some where or other via convection currents! I must say I have not heard of heat sinking before but I’m always willing to learn something new every day!
O/T, I watched a programme on the History channel a few weeks ago now, it was a repeat of an Horizon programme about freak waves & was a little old, early 2004-5 I’m guessing as I missed the first 5 mins thro lunch & the last 5 mins because my wife made me go shopping, huh! An expert from where else but the Met Office was filmed saying that his computer model showed that these freak waves occurred only once in every 10,000 years! Yet further study by others later in the programme showed that these 1/10,000 year occurrences were actually happening pretty much regular as clockwork in the right ocean current/wind conditions! (I daresay they sneaked in a touch of global warming at the end) A sort of over blown wind over tide scenario if you like. So experts aren’t always right to trust their computer models then?
I was intrigued by Smokey’s post and the link to the 1800’s sea level mark. This may not be conclusive because the tectonic plates also rise and fall, right? As I understand it the Indian plate is pushing up above the Eurasian plate (from memory, probably wrong) — does this mean that Bangladesh will rise out of the sea and we don’t need to worry about all those millions of people inundated by rising water? Inquiring numbskulls want to know :).
Is not that smoke and steam the undersea “communicating” with the upper layers?
Noted Antarctic expert Eric Steig tells us that Volcanoes under the ice can’t affect climate on the surface, 2 miles above! This is indeed true and interesting, because CO2 on the surface reportedly can affect the melting of the basal ice, two miles below.
————–
Is this anything like being told that the cold phase of the PDO can cancel out AGW for up to 30 years, but the warm phase of the PDO has absolutely no affect on AGW.
Steve: Based on the NCDC SST anomaly animation, it appears your hotspot may be coincidental weather noise. Unfortunately, this animation is lagging by about a week. We’ll just have to keep an eye on it.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html
So, we have the big question:
What heats the ocean up more:
– Air is 0.002658 °C warmer than usual
– Gigantic volcanic eruption
Steven:
Tonga; 21°08′S 175°12′W
This is the closest buoy find that
see the 400 m depth
http://argo.kishou.go.jp/gtsdata/epl5901795.html
salute
The mean geothermal flux on earth is 60 mW/m^2;
The mean solar flux on earth is 240W/m^2.
Volcans DO NOT AND CAN NOT influence global warming
It sounds like the Gakkel Ridge is one of the least active of the oceanic rifts. Stratification sounds plausible, as the heat that is slowly released is mixed by ocean currents. (My mind wants to insist that the warming waters would rise to the surface.) Since it’s been happening for millions of years it would seem unlikely to have much effect on the surface sea ice; such an effect would have been noticed long ago, before the AGW belief system came about. It may very well be that while there is some warming going on, it’s just not enough to overcome persistent ocean currents. This sounds much different than the Tonga volcanic event. This seems to have been a much more explosive event, with heat being injected into the ocean faster than currents could disperse. Perhaps it could cause a localized temporary warming anomaly to appear.
Undersea Volcano’s are whats causing what ever ice melt that may be happening in the Artic and the Antarctic.This is one of many dirty little secret that the goverment and the media doesn’t want us to know about.Thank about it .How can ice melt at 40below ZERO????? For more on this go iceagenow.com.
Volcanism can certainly do so in the short term. The release of heat energy is intermittent not constant.
Bob,
The surface expression of the volcano has just appeared, but chances are that there has been anomalous geothermal activity in the region for some time prior to the visible eruption.
Nice use of graphics, Steven!
A correlation of magma erupting above the crust but deep in the ocean and a warm anomaly near by makes more sense to me than rising CO2 correlating to rising temps. There are several examples of active submarine volcanoes and anomalous warmth. Back in the 80s, the British Antarctic Survey pointed out that deep volcanic activity was “lubricating” a part of the Antarctic ice shelf from the bottom, allowing it to slip more easily.
Let’s simplify this: magma at 700°C to 1300°C erupts from a crack in the crust and comes in contact with sea water at 7°C. Will the water . . .
A) . . . stay the same temperature
B) . . . become warmer.
C) . . . turn into ice.
D) none of the above.
Stratification notwithstanding, That great a difference in temperatures should influence the temperatures of adjacent thermoclines up several strata.
Lee Kington:
“The problem of course is that there are 10,000 or more submarine volcanoes, we don’t have an accurate inventory, nor are they really monitored with exception of a few.”
Actually, it was recently discovered that there are over 200,000 undersea volcanoes. 39,000 of them are over 1,000 meters [3,280 feet] high: source
alexandriu doru, these volcanoes are undoubtedly emitting astronomical amounts of various gases into the ocean and atmosphere, which neither you nor anyone else can presently quantify.
The fact that the UN/IPCC doesn’t account for 200,000+ submarine volcanoes [and is apparently even unaware of their existence] casts major doubts on the IPCC’s conclusions and competence.
What else should we expect from a politically appointed body?
Good point smokey.
As I understand it the Indian plate is pushing up above the Eurasian plate (from memory, probably wrong) — does this mean that Bangladesh will rise out of the sea and we don’t need to worry about all those millions of people inundated by rising water? Inquiring numbskulls want to know 🙂
These two links should set you on the right track:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4440982.ece
Bangladesh should continue to gain land mass if their damn projects go ahead and sediment continues to accrue at the same rate. For years we used to see images of Bangladeshis clinging to branches as their communities were swept away by annual floods. These images haven’t been seen for some time.
The Indian Government produced a climate report entitled: ‘National Action Plan on Climate Change.’
Compared to the hysteria we in the “advanced” West receive from our dishonest, misguided and politically motivated media, the Indian report is a breath of fresh air.
Section 1.4 deals with ‘Observed Changes in Climate and Weather Events in India’ and states that, “No firm link between the documented changes described below and warming due to anthropogenic climate change has yet been established:”
The changes in climate are put down to natural variability and is presented in a balanced manner. Where they have seen rainfall increase in one region, they have seen it decrease elsewhere. Same with sea levels.
http://pmindia.nic.in/Pg01-52.pdf
It is more likely the influence of the shallow water around the cluster of volcanoes being warmed by the sun that causes the hot spot. It takes a tremendous amount of energy to water a large volume of water, and volcanic activity, though intensely hot, simply doesn’t contain enough heat energy to warm a large volume of water by a signficant amount. The eruptions and geothermal energy may cause localized changes around each vent or each eruptive area, but there is not enough energy there to warm a large area of the ocean.