Guest post by Steven Goddard
On the same day when President Obama and Prime Minister Brown separately warned of imminent economic catastrophe, the new US Energy Secretary Dr. Steven Chu issued a different catastrophe warning. The LA Times quoted him saying ““I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen,” he said. “We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” And, he added, “I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going” either.”
This is a terrifying warning of drought, coming from a cabinet level official whom the LA Times describes as “not a climate scientist.” And perhaps a little surprising, since it was only two winters ago when the “world’s leading climate scientist” Dr. James Hansen, forecast a “Super El Niño” with severe flooding for California. Dr. Hansen has also warned of a return to wet El Niño conditions during the current year or so.
One of the commonly made claims from the AGW camp is that global warming is causing more El Niño events. Roger Pielke Sr. just did a web log on this topic.
El Niño Impacts: Weaker In The Past, Stronger In The Future?
“What about the future of El Niño? According to NCAR senior scientist Kevin Trenberth, ENSO’s impacts may be enhanced by human-produced climate change. El Niños have been unusually frequent since the mid- 1970s.
El Niño is famous for bringing copious amounts of rain and snow to California. I have spent several El Niño winters in the Bay Area where Dr. Chu lives, including the big one in 1998 when the rain was nearly continuous for months. Living Redwood trees were sliding across Highway 17 in the Santa Cruz mountains. I remember a wonderful weekend in LA in February, 2005 during their second wettest winter on record when they received six inches of rain in three days. It didn’t stop pouring for five seconds the entire weekend. According to NOAA:
(LA 2005) had its 2nd wettest rainfall season since records began in 1877 and the wettest season in 121 years. Over 37 inches of rain (37.25) fell downtown, just failing to reach the record 38.18 inches set during the 1883-1884 rainfall season. Average wet season rainfall for LA is 15.14 inches, making the 2004-2005 season 246% wetter than the 1971-2000 normal.
Snowfall in the Sierras is also normally high during El Niño years. Below is a graph of Lake Tahoe snowfall from 1918-2008 – official data taken from here. Not much of a trend, except to note that the Dust Bowl in the 1930s was dry, as Steinbeck and the Okies observed.
From: this spreadsheet El Niño years bring lots of water to the cities, farms and reservoirs, and allow for periods of high agricultural productivity. So I am not sure what it is that we are supposed to be terrified of – famously dry La Niña years in California, or famously wet El Niño years caused by “global warming?” The official horror story morphs so fast, it is often difficult to keep up. Reading Steinbeck, one might get the impression that dry periods are part of the normal climate cycle in California, rather than a recent invention caused by the burning of fossil fuels. President Roosevelt said at the time – “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.“Heavy rain and snow is forecast for California today.
Perhaps we now have the “Chu Effect” working in concert with the Gore Effect?
From weatherstreet.com
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Ya gotta hand it to California governmental bodies. Knowing for years that the lakes are dry or drying up, knowing that the Sierra snowpack is less than normal, knowing that the Colorado River flow is much less than years past, knowing that Lake Mead and Lake Powell are way below the full mark, these governments block construction of desalination plants at every turn.
One (count em, ONE) has been approved recently (late in 2008), in Carlsbad near San Diego. It will not produce fresh water until 2011, per the company’s website.
Another one sits idle, mothballed, in Santa Barbara.
A few more are in various stages of environmental review.
People get cranky when they get thirsty. There is a reason wars were fought over water in the Wild West.
Meanwhile, farms are not planting this year. No water, so why bother?
California’s state water page may be found here.
There is a spiffy section on Climate Change, and another on Drought.
Roger E. Sowell
Marina del Rey, California (where it is indeed raining tonight)
Cooling is now Global warming…. It would seem ‘eh?
Is there no argument that can’t be won by a Molecule of carbon dioxide? : (
off topic, but has anybody seen this? Snow kills 6 Moroccan children:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7872831.stm
So what caused the 1883-1884 wettest ever recorded rainfall season?
It’s actually a very clever policy – announce separate contradicting prophecies at different times, by different people. When later it either gets dry or floods, the masses will only remember that there was a prediction covering this event.
Somewhat OT as reported on ICECAP and linked to below http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/02/save_the_children_from_global.html
Is it possible to go for a “AGW is not science, is religeon, and should not be taught in classrooms” and bring it too a court of law where it would actually have to prove it was in fact science?
Perhaps the reason Dr Chu and Dr Hansen can’t keep there stories straight is because they have been dipping into the ether. As Dr Hunter S. Thompson wrote in Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas: “There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge.”
US Energy Secretary Dr. Steven Chu appears to be simply re-cycling an identical story (with appropriate name changes) about our western state which one of Australia’s infamous climate criers issued a couple of years ago.
I know the economy is bad over there in the US; but surely you could spring a dollar or two hiring creative writers with original scripts?
Steven Chu.
He’s the guy that told people to paint their roofs white to save energy,…..
http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/12/steven-chu-vs-sane-homeowner.html
…despite the fact that more energy is consumed in the winter to heat than in Summer to cool,…
http://www.carboncommentary.com/2008/02/20/76
…and so what might be saved in the Summer would be lost several fold over in the Winter.
In fact, that idea is so idiotic and poorly thought out that I wonder if what he won his Nobel prize for was really his own idea, or if he just had some really bright grad students who’s ideas he, eh, borrowed? (Also, in some of the tapes I’ve seen him in, he look like he’s plastered, slurring his words and not really making a lot of sense. It makes me wonder how much further he could run his car if he put his corn into it’s tank instead of his.)
Have these people no sense of history? Is everything caused by human activity? How arrogant is it to assume that?
Humans do impact on the world in various ways… Passenger pigeon etc. But we have reached a point where anything and everything seems to be attributed to human activity!
The more this goes on the less the public will believe any of it.
He has a severe case of Hockey Stick Fever.
With records only going back to 1877 (the man is also NOT very resourceful)
officially, he’s in a poor position to be yo-yoing the El La Ninao pom poms.
The story of the 49’ers and the weather patterns that follow, along the meticulous snow & rain records kept by a very prominent 1st reservoir in California history (still standing folks) that fed the No. Blumefield Ditch and all the other hydraulic mining co’s of the era escapes poor Chu.
The man needs to do his homework before opening his yap about my State.
There was a very long dry spell in Calif, but it’s clearly off Chu’s radar, and it does NOT fit any patterns seen currently.
Maybe if Tweedlee Gore and Tweedlee Chu keep running thier mouths we’ll get enough rain to fill the Reservoirs in the No. State and restore the Glaciers that the Modern Maximum has melted.
UPDATE…
One tape where he appears a bit snookered..
You don’t suppose that’s why he thinks 3degC is equivalent to 11degF? (it’s 5.4degF) And the IPCC has backed down considerably on it’s claim of a 3degC change in average global temperature, whatever that is.
Didn’t the Governor of California two years ago declare an emergency in the grape growing regions because of snow and frost damaging the vines?
The thing with burocrats pontificating about the climate is that, because they generally don’t have a clue about scientific matters, they just repeat what they are being told. They clearly need better advisors.
I wish these people stopped insulting my intelligence ….
1. I think Dr Chu will find that increasing frequencies of El Ninos is associated with the warm phase of the PDO, which we have just exited from, hence the smart bets now would be on 30 years of more La Ninas.
2. There is therefore indeed the possibility of droughts ahead in California, due to La Ninas, not El Ninos. However, as this has happened before and humankind survived in California, perhaps they will do so again?
3. One wonders whether Dr Chu is angling for a job at Kleiner Perkin Caufield and Byers in a couple of years, who are no doubt delighted that he is talking up the need for new clean tech companies and products in their region?
4. Perhaps the answer is a series of transitory canals for water shovelling around the country? After all, with any weather, it seems to chuck it down somewhere. Washington State might have too much in the years ahead and Tennessee can ship it to Florida, perhaps?
Question for Chu… I was wondering where the science is that projects such a statement, and exactly which scenario this is? What are the physical mechanisms behind such an effect and what sort of driver level and feedback is present to produce such an effect? How long will the effect last? Hmmm?
I want a job where I could just make stuff up and get paid for it. I’m creative!
If it gets too cold in California instead, will it be known as the “Ha-Chu” effect?
Every day in California is a State of Emergency.
The light bulbs at the top are all screwed in backwards.
Can we borrow Dave Archibald for a few years to come over here and straighten these quarks out?
Bob D,
In option trading terms I think the tactic is defined as a straddle.
HasItBeen4YearsYet? (00:24:39) :
UPDATE…
One tape where he appears a bit snookered.. . . .
You don’t suppose that’s why he thinks 3degC is equivalent to 11degF? (it’s 5.4degF)
I suggest you recalculate that. Dr Chu has a PhD, after all.
But seriously,
HasItBeen4YearsYet? (00:10:42) :
Steven Chu.
He’s the guy that told people to paint their roofs white to save energy, despite the fact that more energy is consumed in the winter to heat than in summer to cool . . . and so what might be saved in the Summer would be lost several fold over in the Winter.
Actually, Dr Chu has a point. If you don’t mind ruining those expensive hi-relief 40 yr shingles, painting them white will save energy. Wintertime insolation is much less than summertime, and lasts less than half the day, that is, the roof will spend much less time reflecting/absorbing in the light than it will radiating IR in darkness. The white paint will radiate less than a darker roof.
And I understand that whitewash does an even better job than latex.
And perhaps a little surprising, since it was only two winters ago when the “world’s leading climate scientist” Dr. James Hansen, forecast a “Super El Niño”
Correction: That prediction only appeared in a draft document, and Hansen removed it from the final report actually released to the public.
I am sure you would not wish to perpetuate a falsehood just because it reflects badly on Dr Hansen.
Gah! This is like some mass form of cognitive dissonance. Does anyone think for a moment that he believes this screed?
Since it was mentioned…. I follow the data for Lake Powell and check it on a regular basis.
http://graphs.water-data.com/lakepowell/
http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php
The also have a searchable data base.
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php
Last year the lakes gained quite a bit…. then the decision was made to do a massive discharge (both Powell and Mead). It seems some fish downstream wanted to wash their teeth real well or something.
It could be worse you could live in Washington:
“Antarctic bulge could flood Washington DC ”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16545-antarctic-bulge-could-flood-washington-dc.html
Whilst in the dry continent of Australia: So much water is spilling out of the Burdekin Falls dam in north Queensland that it would fill Sydney Harbour every five hours and there are fears more rain could cause widespread flooding in the region.
Queensland’s Natural Resources and Water Minister, Craig Wallace, says the Burdekin could end up under water.
Weatherzone: Massive dam overflow threatens further N Qld flooding
Aussie John (23:50:53) :
So what caused the 1883-1884 wettest ever recorded rainfall season?
I do not know what dates constitute the 1883-1884 rainfall season.
But Krakatoa erupted August 26–27, 1883.
Just a thought.