Guest post by Steven Goddard
On the same day when President Obama and Prime Minister Brown separately warned of imminent economic catastrophe, the new US Energy Secretary Dr. Steven Chu issued a different catastrophe warning. The LA Times quoted him saying ““I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen,” he said. “We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” And, he added, “I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going” either.”
This is a terrifying warning of drought, coming from a cabinet level official whom the LA Times describes as “not a climate scientist.” And perhaps a little surprising, since it was only two winters ago when the “world’s leading climate scientist” Dr. James Hansen, forecast a “Super El Niño” with severe flooding for California. Dr. Hansen has also warned of a return to wet El Niño conditions during the current year or so.
One of the commonly made claims from the AGW camp is that global warming is causing more El Niño events. Roger Pielke Sr. just did a web log on this topic.
El Niño Impacts: Weaker In The Past, Stronger In The Future?
“What about the future of El Niño? According to NCAR senior scientist Kevin Trenberth, ENSO’s impacts may be enhanced by human-produced climate change. El Niños have been unusually frequent since the mid- 1970s.
El Niño is famous for bringing copious amounts of rain and snow to California. I have spent several El Niño winters in the Bay Area where Dr. Chu lives, including the big one in 1998 when the rain was nearly continuous for months. Living Redwood trees were sliding across Highway 17 in the Santa Cruz mountains. I remember a wonderful weekend in LA in February, 2005 during their second wettest winter on record when they received six inches of rain in three days. It didn’t stop pouring for five seconds the entire weekend. According to NOAA:
(LA 2005) had its 2nd wettest rainfall season since records began in 1877 and the wettest season in 121 years. Over 37 inches of rain (37.25) fell downtown, just failing to reach the record 38.18 inches set during the 1883-1884 rainfall season. Average wet season rainfall for LA is 15.14 inches, making the 2004-2005 season 246% wetter than the 1971-2000 normal.
Snowfall in the Sierras is also normally high during El Niño years. Below is a graph of Lake Tahoe snowfall from 1918-2008 – official data taken from here. Not much of a trend, except to note that the Dust Bowl in the 1930s was dry, as Steinbeck and the Okies observed.
From: this spreadsheet El Niño years bring lots of water to the cities, farms and reservoirs, and allow for periods of high agricultural productivity. So I am not sure what it is that we are supposed to be terrified of – famously dry La Niña years in California, or famously wet El Niño years caused by “global warming?” The official horror story morphs so fast, it is often difficult to keep up. Reading Steinbeck, one might get the impression that dry periods are part of the normal climate cycle in California, rather than a recent invention caused by the burning of fossil fuels. President Roosevelt said at the time – “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.“Heavy rain and snow is forecast for California today.
Perhaps we now have the “Chu Effect” working in concert with the Gore Effect?
From weatherstreet.com
“So what caused the 1883-1884 wettest ever recorded rainfall season?”
– – – – –
The high amount of precipitation that was recorded that year.
I don’t know what you are worried about – it looks like the East Coast is going to be completely flooded due to a water bulge http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16545-antarctic-bulge-could-flood-washington-dc.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
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mikiwud, I don’t think you intentionally meant to be racist, but I have no choice except to interpret your post that way and I’m sorry, it is not acceptable behavior for this blog. Think about what you wrote.
~ charles the moderator going to bed on the west coast.
(sarc)Hooray for whitewashing the planet, he’s a freaking genius , and we should out law any kind of heat absorption.
First matter of business in the new world, the sun must go, we’re heating double the warmth and remember it’s for the children. (sarc/)
Keep saying that to yourselves, as you make our kids play for your retirement in wasteful big $$$ green energy investments over a non existant pollution scam.
Yeah, my kids, so bring it on, the population with only take so much BS. :i
” Well only take so much BS”
Sorry 🙂
Sorry HasItBeen4YearsYet, but your physics is wrong. White reduces both emission and absorption of radiation, black increases both. So a white house will absorb less energy from the hotter outside in summer, and reduce radiation from the hotter inside in winter. It is perfectly sensible advice.
THE problem in California is that we build as many houses as we can within the available water supply in the best, wettest, years then wonder why there is a water ‘shortage’ due to ‘drought’ the other 80%+ of the time…
Oh Well…
BTW, the comment about Cities just shows he can’t do math. About 5% of all the water in California goes to cities. The rest goes to farms, washing trout teeth, whatever. You can run the cities at full water in the worst drought around and not notice it. Similarly, we can stop all water use in every city, send everyone to New Orleans, and it would not make any difference worth mention to the farmers of the state.
The whole “don’t flush for #1” et. al. is just ginned up for political reasons. For ‘sharing’ and ‘creating awareness’…
Of course, the thing that really frosts my shorts is the point made earlier. We could have all the water anyone could ever need at about the present rate for city water, technically… if only you could get a desalinization plant completed… Plenty planned and some started. Then the protests, red tape, et. al. begin…
Protests? Who would protest? Well, stop the water and you stop the housing, industry, people, etc… It is not accidental that water and oil are under attack.
(Shades of Dr. Strangelove! They are attacking our Precious Fluids!)
They don’t do themselves any favors using scare tactics like that.
The public are not buying it as you can see at this news poll.
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/
Looks like about 1 out of 4 are falling for the hysteria.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/issues2/articles/23_fear_global_warming_will_end_world_soon
We have water, America:
Dam may go underwater…
It should also be kept in mind that since the last California drought in the 1980’s, the state’s population has grown ~50%. That means 50% more people competing for a relatively static and unpredictable water supply. Unfortunately, Cali’s state government seems more concerned with outlawing plastic shopping bags than planning for the future.
But do not be alarmed, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has formulated a plan, which he explains in detail here: click
I view California in a very poor light. They spend there citizens money on vast, pointless and wasteful ways. Yet on things that matter, they block private enterprise and seem to expect to be subsidized by other states – examples oil, water, electricity – basic things. California is socialist and anti-capitalist.
I hate to seem harsh, but frankly, I would not shed too many tears if California dried up and blew away, or fell into the sea or simply left the United States. California does significantly more harm to the US than the benefits it provides.
California and it’s citizens are completely expendable to the health and well being of the United States, in fact, it would be desirable for it to go away.
Suprisingly CSIRO and the MSM in Australia have just blamed “Drought” on Indian Ocean Currents.
Not a CO2 molecule in sight.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25014927-11949,00.html
Also check out the vote on ABC Radio website WebPoll…
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/
Somehow the option “Global Warming is a Myth” was included? – and it’s in front???
There is a reason that no great civilization ever arose in North America. It’s not because the Indians couldn’t do it, there were a few abortive attempts. It is because the climate lacks the required long term stability.
The US of A will eventually discover this. It will be blamed on GW.
“I know the economy is bad over there in the US; but surely you could spring a dollar or two hiring creative writers with original scripts?”
—————–
I hear that there are a lot of out of work Hollywood writers. They are used to making things up, and making it sound good.
“…despite the fact that more energy is consumed in the winter to heat than in Summer to cool,…”
In the summer, the highest energy consumption comes when the sun is highest in the sky.
In the winter, the highest energy consumption occurs when the sun isn’t shinning at all.
In addition, the sun doesn’t shine much in the winter for much of the US.
On top of that, for much of the country, roofs are covered by snow for a significant fraction of the winter, so it doesn’t matter what color you paint it.
Both Roger Sewell and I independently tackled the California water situation a few days ago.
My main point – we don’t have to wait for fifty or a hundred years for the water crisis…it’s already here!. In a nut shell, the state has not expanded its water infrastructure or storage capabilities since the 1950’s, due in part to resistance from the very powerful environmental lobby. We have overexerted our use of natural aquifers and, here in the San Joaquin Valley, an area roughly the size of Tennessee, the wells tapping into them are drying up. Because conservation has been the catch all / be all solution to every problem in the state, we have not built new dams or other water storage facilities to meet the demands of a population that has increased five fold since the fifties. Anyway, Here is the blog post I wrote.
PS. Google “flex alert” and learn it well. For some reason, other states admire what California gas done with its energy policy, which mirrors their water policy. Conserve to the point of near starvation during high demand. Don’t get me wrong. I’m all for conservation, but that can only get you so far.
E.M.Smith (02:39:56)
‘Of course, the thing that really frosts my shorts is the point made earlier. We could have all the water anyone could ever need at about the present rate for city water, technically… if only you could get a desalinization plant completed… Plenty planned and some started. Then the protests, red tape, et. al. begin… ‘
You left out lawsuits.
And people wonder why business is moving out of California and the U.S..
California does significantly more harm to the US than the benefits it provides.
I guess you like high food and produce prices, as nearly 25 % of the U.S. farm output is from California. The place is not the problem here, it’s the people in power.
There is no question that the population centers of California face several serious threats, including their water supply. Obsessing about CO2 is an unfortunate distraction that diverts attention away from any intelligent remedial actions.
An interesting story from the LA Times in 2005
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-earthquake08sep08,1,2126004.story?coll=la-util-news-local
U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Lucy Jones remembers attending an emergency training session in August 2001 with the Federal Emergency Management Agency that discussed the three most likely catastrophes to strike the United States.
First on the list was a terrorist attack in New York. Second was a super-strength hurricane hitting New Orleans. Third was a major earthquake on the San Andreas fault.
Much of California is a desert not fit for rattlesnakes. Thanks to the ingenuity of Man, some 20 million people live in a very arid warm place. We would not be having this conversation if California had the population of Iowa. Water is the main resource for any civilization. That is why it is not temperature but precipitation we should be worried about. Desalination plants appear to be the only recourse for California. A long period of La Ninas spell nothing but trouble for the Desert Southwest.
El Ninos usually don’t spell drought for California, as unusually strong Pacific storms result in abundent winter time rains storms, as well as high level snows.
Graeme Rodaughan… Not only just in front…at present some 91 % think
GW is a myth…Question was : Is the heat wave in Australia caused by GW?
No and yes each 4,5 % approx. … Is it a UCSPA??? [United Coordinated Sceptic
Poll Attack] … Other weather and climate-related polls:
…At what point should sporting events be called off due to heat
39C 65%
41C 21,7%
44C or above (Aussies are tough, aren’t they??) 13,4%
and lastly:
Obama’s greatest challenge?
Economy: 57,7%
Rebuilding US international status 22,0%
Climate change 8,1%
And this people voted for[?] Rudd and Company…
or not so many real Australians care for ABC AU net polls??
BTW. Water has always been a hot topic in California – Water Wars
I’m not sure where this 95 % farm use vs. 5 % residential figure came from. I suspect the usage gap is not nearly that wide. This map shows water usage in California divided by county, and includes swimming pools, tap water and agricultural inputs. The counties with higher water consumption average at about 280 to 300 gallons per day, while those counties that use the least average 150 to 180 GPD.
‘HasItBeen4YearsYet? (00:10:42) :
Steven Chu.
He’s the guy that told people to paint their roofs white to save energy,…..’
That’s just in the spring. In the fall, you paint the roof black. Then in the spring you paint it white. Then in the fall, you paint it black again. C’mon guys, you’re just not thinking GREEN…
er… black. er…white.
Oh heck.
This is a cheap and sleazy diversion. California, lock stepped with the AGW fear mantra, is bankrupt. They cannot pay tax refunds owed to the workers of California. California employees are getting sent home with no pay.
Their parks are closing.
But, by golly, they are installing gigawatts of tax payer funded solar panels, at only severalX the cost of real power plants.
AGW is doing to our formerly greatest state what AGW did to the food markets last year: causing havoc and suffering.
And AGW hype is well on the way to destroying NASA and man in space, as well.
AGW is not like believing in UFO’s UFO belief is stupid but basically harmless. AGW’s dark side is that its promoters demand, and are getting, control of the public square and the public purse. Chu, Lovelock, Gore, Hansen, are selling death. In California they are starting to reap just that.